CBS Power Rankings

[slamtheking]

Minnesota seems like the kind of team that could have stretches where they play like a playoff team. But they're so young and have such a split between the younger core they're committed to and the older guys with no future with the team that I just don't see them sustaining it long enough to get particularly close to the playoffs.  30-34 wins seems like their ceiling.  Plus if they're close to losing their 1st I expect they'll do some things to insure they'll keep it.

I'm optimistic for them but this was what's been occurring to me as the season approaches.  I'm not sure they torpedo their team at the risk of a mid-first-round pick though.

[footey]

Getting the #7 and #9 pick out of this season, regardless of what the Celts do, would be awesome.  If there's a guy Danny likes atop the draft, that's great ammunition to move up into the top 3 or 4 spots.


Anyway, I agree that the rankings seem about right.  With the Nets I still think there's something to be said for the power of having a few competent veterans at the top of your roster playing large roles (especially a 20 point-per-game big man), plus the lack of any incentive to be bad. 

I don't believe that will be enough for the Nets to win more than they lose or anything like that, but it'll skew things a bit relative to what you'd expect based on what their roster looks like on paper.


Must admit, and this won't shock anyone here, that I mostly agree with the "cock your head like a dog looking at a shiny object" perspective.  The roster is a mess, which does make sense if you think of it as a pile of assets rather than a roster meant to develop and succeed over multiple seasons.

The Celts will fall somewhere in the 35-45 win range, I think.  I have no idea where in that range they'll fall, honestly.  None.  Zip. 

So long as those picks owed by the Nets and Mavs turn out well, it won't really matter.  Whatever the Celts do on the floor this season will mean very little for the long term, because very few of these players will be here a few years from now.

That typically is not how the draft works. Rarely will you see a couple of picks traded up to get a top 3 pick. I am scratching my head remembering if that has happened since the Celtics gave up the No. 1 pick (Joe Barely Cares) for No. 3 (McHale) and Chief. (We also gave up another pick around 10-11 I think). There was some horse trading in '06 near the top, but that was GM's just trying to squeeze an additional pick (e.g., Bulls foolishly traded 2nd pick to Portland for 4th and juice because the valued Tyrus Thomas higher than LaMarcus Aldridge, ha ha).  Point being usually every draft it is very difficult to trade into a top 3 pick, because usually the top 3 guys are considered a notch above the others.

[Eddie20]

Getting the #7 and #9 pick out of this season, regardless of what the Celts do, would be awesome.  If there's a guy Danny likes atop the draft, that's great ammunition to move up into the top 3 or 4 spots.


Anyway, I agree that the rankings seem about right.  With the Nets I still think there's something to be said for the power of having a few competent veterans at the top of your roster playing large roles (especially a 20 point-per-game big man), plus the lack of any incentive to be bad. 

I don't believe that will be enough for the Nets to win more than they lose or anything like that, but it'll skew things a bit relative to what you'd expect based on what their roster looks like on paper.


Must admit, and this won't shock anyone here, that I mostly agree with the "cock your head like a dog looking at a shiny object" perspective.  The roster is a mess, which does make sense if you think of it as a pile of assets rather than a roster meant to develop and succeed over multiple seasons.

The Celts will fall somewhere in the 35-45 win range, I think.  I have no idea where in that range they'll fall, honestly.  None.  Zip. 

So long as those picks owed by the Nets and Mavs turn out well, it won't really matter.  Whatever the Celts do on the floor this season will mean very little for the long term, because very few of these players will be here a few years from now.

That typically is not how the draft works. Rarely will you see a couple of picks traded up to get a top 3 pick. I am scratching my head remembering if that has happened since the Celtics gave up the No. 1 pick (Joe Barely Cares) for No. 3 (McHale) and Chief. (We also gave up another pick around 10-11 I think). There was some horse trading in '06 near the top, but that was GM's just trying to squeeze an additional pick (e.g., Bulls foolishly traded 2nd pick to Portland for 4th and juice because the valued Tyrus Thomas higher than LaMarcus Aldridge, ha ha).  Point being usually every draft it is very difficult to trade into a top 3 pick, because usually the top 3 guys are considered a notch above the others.

Magic and Golden State (Webber/Penny deal) too.

[PhoSita]

Point being usually every draft it is very difficult to trade into a top 3 pick, because usually the top 3 guys are considered a notch above the others.

You're absolutely right, it would be tough to do that.

As you noted, though, it does happen sometimes, and what's a great big pile of assets for if not to pull off a rare trade to set the team on a path to contention?  What has Danny been doing all of this for?

Trading a bunch of assets for an established superstar is rare, too, after all.

[KeepRondo]

I think the Nets and C's are a little too high - about a couple of spots each

Gotta get two lotto picks right? 

I honestly think it'll be 3
Nets - top 5 pick
Dallas - pick between 8-10
C's - pick between 10-12 (I think they just miss the playoffs and depending on how many teams in the West miss the playoffs with a better record and if Detroit and/or Charlotte surprise this year to challenge for the playoffs)

Make that 4!!! I believe in TOWNS!!! =]

Nice but who won't be on the team next year? Gotta make room for the 4 lottery picks if no one wants to trade with Ainge?

This could get very interesting.

[fairweatherfan]

Minnesota seems like the kind of team that could have stretches where they play like a playoff team. But they're so young and have such a split between the younger core they're committed to and the older guys with no future with the team that I just don't see them sustaining it long enough to get particularly close to the playoffs.  30-34 wins seems like their ceiling.  Plus if they're close to losing their 1st I expect they'll do some things to insure they'll keep it.

I'm optimistic for them but this was what's been occurring to me as the season approaches.  I'm not sure they torpedo their team at the risk of a mid-first-round pick though.

Not torpedo it, just sit out guys at the first hint of injury, maybe trade an older guy for picks, give the ball to Zach LaVine.  That kinda stuff. 

Their choice is between losing a mid-1st and keeping a top-12, which makes it more appealing.  As much as we talk about whether a low playoff seed is worth leaving the lottery, finishing 9th and getting nothing vs finishing 11th and getting a mid lottery pick is a pretty easy decision.

But overall I don't think they're good enough to be likely to need to make that choice.  Think they'll climb out of the basement but only pass 3-4 teams at most.  Still be fun to watch though.

[slamtheking]

I think the Nets and C's are a little too high - about a couple of spots each

Gotta get two lotto picks right? 

I honestly think it'll be 3
Nets - top 5 pick
Dallas - pick between 8-10
C's - pick between 10-12 (I think they just miss the playoffs and depending on how many teams in the West miss the playoffs with a better record and if Detroit and/or Charlotte surprise this year to challenge for the playoffs)

Make that 4!!! I believe in TOWNS!!! =]

Nice but who won't be on the team next year? Gotta make room for the 4 lottery picks if no one wants to trade with Ainge?

This could get very interesting.

well, just from a contract perspective, Lee and Turner are expiring this year.  Jerebko and Amir have non-guaranteed deals after this year.  That's 4 right there. 

having said that, I'd be stunned if Amir was cut loose after this year not to mention even more stunned if Danny actually made more than 2 first round picks in the coming draft.  I have to believe that if we end up with 3 (or 4) when the season ends that Danny swings a deal to consolidate the picks or move the picks for proven players.  That's without even getting into the multitude of second round picks we have next year.

[slamtheking]

Minnesota seems like the kind of team that could have stretches where they play like a playoff team. But they're so young and have such a split between the younger core they're committed to and the older guys with no future with the team that I just don't see them sustaining it long enough to get particularly close to the playoffs.  30-34 wins seems like their ceiling.  Plus if they're close to losing their 1st I expect they'll do some things to insure they'll keep it.

I'm optimistic for them but this was what's been occurring to me as the season approaches.  I'm not sure they torpedo their team at the risk of a mid-first-round pick though.

Not torpedo it, just sit out guys at the first hint of injury, maybe trade an older guy for picks, give the ball to Zach LaVine.  That kinda stuff. 

Their choice is between losing a mid-1st and keeping a top-12, which makes it more appealing.  As much as we talk about whether a low playoff seed is worth leaving the lottery, finishing 9th and getting nothing vs finishing 11th and getting a mid lottery pick is a pretty easy decision.

But overall I don't think they're good enough to be likely to need to make that choice.  Think they'll climb out of the basement but only pass 3-4 teams at most.  Still be fun to watch though.

I get what you're saying and don't disagree if the protection was something like top 10 since landing at say #11 means you probably missed the playoffs by a bit. 

the one caveat I would add is that with the protection actually being top 12, that leaves only 2 slots outside the playoffs.  if Minny is actually in the chase for that 8th playoff spot, I'm not 100% convinced they don't go all out to try to make it.  having that group taste the playoffs after so many years out of it as a franchise and with KG back for a final run, I wouldn't automatically assume they'd treasure the #13 or 14 pick over a playoff appearance.

[fairweatherfan]

Minnesota seems like the kind of team that could have stretches where they play like a playoff team. But they're so young and have such a split between the younger core they're committed to and the older guys with no future with the team that I just don't see them sustaining it long enough to get particularly close to the playoffs.  30-34 wins seems like their ceiling.  Plus if they're close to losing their 1st I expect they'll do some things to insure they'll keep it.

I'm optimistic for them but this was what's been occurring to me as the season approaches.  I'm not sure they torpedo their team at the risk of a mid-first-round pick though.

Not torpedo it, just sit out guys at the first hint of injury, maybe trade an older guy for picks, give the ball to Zach LaVine.  That kinda stuff. 

Their choice is between losing a mid-1st and keeping a top-12, which makes it more appealing.  As much as we talk about whether a low playoff seed is worth leaving the lottery, finishing 9th and getting nothing vs finishing 11th and getting a mid lottery pick is a pretty easy decision.

But overall I don't think they're good enough to be likely to need to make that choice.  Think they'll climb out of the basement but only pass 3-4 teams at most.  Still be fun to watch though.

I get what you're saying and don't disagree if the protection was something like top 10 since landing at say #11 means you probably missed the playoffs by a bit. 

the one caveat I would add is that with the protection actually being top 12, that leaves only 2 slots outside the playoffs.  if Minny is actually in the chase for that 8th playoff spot, I'm not 100% convinced they don't go all out to try to make it.  having that group taste the playoffs after so many years out of it as a franchise and with KG back for a final run, I wouldn't automatically assume they'd treasure the #13 or 14 pick over a playoff appearance.

That's fair - I was picturing more of a scenario where they're hanging around the back of the playoff pack midway through the year.  Have to wait and see - 25 more days!

[nickagneta]

Minnesota seems like the kind of team that could have stretches where they play like a playoff team. But they're so young and have such a split between the younger core they're committed to and the older guys with no future with the team that I just don't see them sustaining it long enough to get particularly close to the playoffs.  30-34 wins seems like their ceiling.  Plus if they're close to losing their 1st I expect they'll do some things to insure they'll keep it.

I agree. I think they having promising young talent but they've had promising young talent before and not won 30 games. The core group as a whole is just too young to expect a large amount of wins, regardless of the quality of that youth. I feel the same way with Philly and to some extent Orlando. Until that talent has been through the league for a few years, I don't see it paying off dividends in wins.

I see next season as the year Orlando starts seeing a step forward. They probably have another bad year left. Minny still has probably two bad years left before they take the leap. Philly, wow, who knows. If Embiid never plays thee could be in store for three more terrible years.

[rollie mass]

testing -sorry

[colincb]

Tend to agree with the Mavs and Nets rankings.

Cs are 1 of 9 teams after the Cavs fighting for 7 spots and they've got more depth than the other 8 and thus less susceptible to injuries crippling a key player.  They'll get into the playoffs and I suspect higher than 8th in the East. Nets are very vulnerable to injury which plummet them further down the rankings.

Out West there are 6 powerful teams and enough playoff contenders like the Jazz, Pelicans, Suns and maybe the Kings to keep the Mavs out of the playoffs.

[max215]

I think the Nets and C's are a little too high - about a couple of spots each

Gotta get two lotto picks right? 

I honestly think it'll be 3
Nets - top 5 pick
Dallas - pick between 8-10
C's - pick between 10-12 (I think they just miss the playoffs and depending on how many teams in the West miss the playoffs with a better record and if Detroit and/or Charlotte surprise this year to challenge for the playoffs)

Make that 4!!! I believe in TOWNS!!! =]

Towns and Wiggins are both going to be studs, but this year, the Wolves will probably still be a bottom 10 team.

[mctyson]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/powerrankings

Celtics 17 overall (8th seed in East, #15 pick)

Basically if you believe that their late-season run was sustainable, you pencil them in for a playoff spot. If you look at their talent and cock your head like a dog confused by a shiny object like I do, you're less certain they're ready for prime time.

Nets (#7 pick)

This team will be marginally less soul-sucking than last year. There's enough veteran talent to surprise, but too many question marks to believe in them. They'll be less painful for everyone involved to watch, though. Put that on a marketing push.

Mavs (#9 pick)

Their starting five consists of a player whose entire career was derailed with ankle and knee injuries, a 29-year-old shooting guard coming off an Achilles tear, a small forward who had 'minor microfracture surgery,' a 37-year-old seven-foot power forward in his career's twilight, and either Zaza Pachulia, Samuel Dalembert, or... gulp, JaVale McGee. That's OK, though, because at least they sent all their depth to Boston for a point guard who now plays in Sacramento. So yeah, you could say I'm concerned about the Mavs.

I think most people on this board would be very happy if the season ended this way.  I think we are at least a 6 seed in the East thought.

[BDeCosta26]

I think the Nets and C's are a little too high - about a couple of spots each

Gotta get two lotto picks right? 

I honestly think it'll be 3
Nets - top 5 pick
Dallas - pick between 8-10
C's - pick between 10-12 (I think they just miss the playoffs and depending on how many teams in the West miss the playoffs with a better record and if Detroit and/or Charlotte surprise this year to challenge for the playoffs)

Make that 4!!! I believe in TOWNS!!! =]

Nice but who won't be on the team next year? Gotta make room for the 4 lottery picks if no one wants to trade with Ainge?

This could get very interesting.

well, just from a contract perspective, Lee and Turner are expiring this year.  Jerebko and Amir have non-guaranteed deals after this year.  That's 4 right there. 

having said that, I'd be stunned if Amir was cut loose after this year not to mention even more stunned if Danny actually made more than 2 first round picks in the coming draft.  I have to believe that if we end up with 3 (or 4) when the season ends that Danny swings a deal to consolidate the picks or move the picks for proven players.  That's without even getting into the multitude of second round picks we have next year.

Well, I think it depends STK. I think if we finish where you've consistently predicted (Just put of the playoffs, picking in the 10-13 range) we could be looking at an even more intensive "youth movement" where the likes of Sully/Lee are gone by the deadline and we opt not to resign Amir or Jerebko. Even that hinges on a few factors though.

If Brooklyn lands in the top 5-7 picks, and Dallas is somewhere from 8-12 (Leaving us three picks in the lottery in that scenario) along with good development from our own guys like Smart, Young the rookies, etc, I'd expect us to be going hard after a big trade. Maybe it's DMC, maybe it's someone a little younger with untapped potential, but with all that ammunition I think that would be the most critical time to push for a big move. Even if the other Brooklyn picks pan out, we likely won't have that many trade assets at a single time again. If were able to convert that into Cousins or the like, we will, and well keep guys like Amir, Zeller and JJ.

But, if none of those trades present themselves, we may move less assets to take a chance on a young guy we think has untapped potential (think someone like Barnes or Harris) but I could certainly see us keeping those picks, moving on from guys like Johnson, Sully and Jerebko, and using those three picks on lottery talent. If we don't make the playoffs/improve overall this season I think we could certainly go this route; maybe trying to package those picks for a higher one or adding those three picks to a Smart/Olynyk/Crowder/Young/Rozier/Mickey/Hunter/Thomas/Bradley core and going forward with that.

There's so many variables though it's really hard to even say what's the most likely to happen. IMO, I think we make the playoffs as a 5-7 seed with around 45-47 wins and we try our [dang]edest to turn the three 1sts into a guy that can make us a contender.