Author Topic: Does BS give IT the opportunity to start this season  (Read 14324 times)

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Re: Does BS give IT the opprtunity to start this season
« Reply #60 on: October 04, 2015, 05:01:38 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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IT's usage rate just isn't compatible with Steven's offensive system as a starter.
On what do you base that assertion?   How does his offensive system differ for starters?
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The ball has to move and everyone needs to be shooting. One player shouldn't be dominating the ball and the shooting.

What if that one player is by far the most efficient scoring option?

If you have 4 players who score at a TS% of .450 and one player who scores with an efficiency of .570, then I don't care what system you are running.  If you don't run a system that has makes far, far heavier USG of that guy than the others, then you are a terrible coach and should be fired.

I totally disagree with the idea that 'everyone needs to be shooting'.  That's a recipe for a mediocre-to-awful offense.   Oh, wait -- that's pretty much what we have had the last couple of seasons with the _exception_ of when Isaiah arrived and was on the floor.

Should Kendrick Perkins have been shooting equally as often as Pierce, Ray and KG?

I'm not saying that Isaiah should be taking every shot.  No offense is going to succeed in the long run without more than one scoring option.  Defenses will adjust and take that away, especially in the playoffs. 

So whether IT starts or not, we have to have at least a couple of others emerge who are legit scoring threats.   But that isn't likely to be "everyone" and it doesn't need to be.   Ideally, the team needs to resolve who the 2-4 most efficient scoring weapons on the team are and make sure that those guys are getting the lions share of USG.

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Re: Does BS give IT the opprtunity to start this season
« Reply #61 on: October 04, 2015, 05:02:43 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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Only if he wants the opposing PG to have a career night offensively. IT's skilled and a good offensive player, but he's a liability on defense. It seems like starting two defensive guards is conducive to IT scoring more points & allowing fewer. If we're playing against R Westbrook, there's no way that starting IT over Marcus is a good idea.
Interesting fact:  Opposing PGs posted a lower PER against Isaiah (13.8) than they did against either Avery (15.6) or Smart (17.8).

Which probably has more to do with the fact that he mainly played against bench players, and that these types of stats tend to make poor assumptions about who's covering who
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Re: Does BS give IT the opprtunity to start this season
« Reply #62 on: October 04, 2015, 05:57:08 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I don't think Turner gets enough credit.  Everyone seems to love that we went on a run late last season, but everyone also seems to dismiss how important Turner was to that run.  He was putting up Rondo-esque numbers at the point-forward position.  Second half of the season he averaged 11 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and 1.2 steals... He was arguably the best player on our team.  He's a versatile player.  I actually think he might be a borderline starter.

Turner can do a few things well.  He is a decent isolation player.  He has an OK midrange pullup shot.  He can run the pick and roll fairly well.

He's a mediocre defender, a poor shooter, and he turns the ball over a fair amount.  His rebounding is good as a guard but fairly poor as a wing.

I look at him as a backup point guard, kind of like Shaun Livingston.  In that role, I think he's an asset.  But you have to be willing to give him the keys to the offense while he's on the floor. 

For the Celts, he's a decent starting option so long as the other guys in the starting lineup are weak ball-handlers and the team's best ball-handler is a bench scorer.

All of that said, the fact that Turner was important to the team doesn't mean he's particularly good.  On a team that has a legitimate starting point guard, he's not worth playing more than 16-18 minutes a night.

Synergy tracking numbers indicate that, while Turner ran the Pick & Roll quite often, he didn't run it particularly well.   As the ball handler on pick & roll plays, Evan managed .72 points per possession, which ranked him 41.8 percentile.

That's actually less efficient than Avery Bradley was at that play (.81 points/pos, 65.2 percentile) and miles behind Isaiah (0.94, 90.6 percentile).

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Re: Does BS give IT the opprtunity to start this season
« Reply #63 on: October 04, 2015, 06:00:04 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Only if he wants the opposing PG to have a career night offensively. IT's skilled and a good offensive player, but he's a liability on defense. It seems like starting two defensive guards is conducive to IT scoring more points & allowing fewer. If we're playing against R Westbrook, there's no way that starting IT over Marcus is a good idea.
Interesting fact:  Opposing PGs posted a lower PER against Isaiah (13.8) than they did against either Avery (15.6) or Smart (17.8).

Which probably has more to do with the fact that he mainly played against bench players, and that these types of stats tend to make poor assumptions about who's covering who

The bulk of Isaiah's minutes came at the end of halves and the 4th.  In fact more of his minutes came in the 4th than any other period.

Do opposing starting PGs not play much in the 4th?

As to who was covering whom ... do you really think Isaiah was more often covering one of the other positions than the PG?   
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Re: Does BS give IT the opprtunity to start this season
« Reply #64 on: October 04, 2015, 07:20:19 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Last year, in every single lineup with Thomas and Turner, Boston had an expected win percentage above .500.  The Smart/Bradley/Turner wings produced 2 of the lowest expected win percentages last year.  I get these are smallish sample sizes, but the lineups with Thomas at the point and Turner at the SF were pretty effective lineups.

http://www.82games.com/1415/1415BOS2.HTM
I know you are correcting something someone said in an earlier point, but what do you think this information indicates?

I think this is an argument for bringing Turner off the bench with Thomas, rather than starting both.
but that is just silly.  If you have a pairing that in every single grouping is above .500 than you want to start that pairing.

Starting both would mean forcing Stevens to performing some interesting gymnastics with rotations to avoid bench lineups without any proven ball-handlers.
No it wouldn't.


Alright, explain it then.
It isn't hard to come up with a rotation that has at least Thomas or Turner on the floor.

Something like this would work just fine
Thomas, Smart, Turner - first 4 minutes
Bradley in for Thomas - next 2 minutes
Thomas in for Smart, Crowder in for Turner - next 4 minutes
Turner in for Crowder, Smart in for Bradley - next 2 minutes end of quarter

So of the 36 minutes you would get - Thomas 10 minutes, Turner 8 minutes, Smart 8 minutes, Bradley 6 minutes, Crowder 4 minutes

Something like that would work just fine.  Smart could come in at the 10 minute mark for Thomas instead of Bradley if that floats your boat.  Next quarter you reverse Thomas and Turner's minutes and get Crowder some extra time and Smart or Bradley a bit less. 

There are plenty of options.
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Re: Does BS give IT the opprtunity to start this season
« Reply #65 on: October 04, 2015, 08:38:27 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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Only if he wants the opposing PG to have a career night offensively. IT's skilled and a good offensive player, but he's a liability on defense. It seems like starting two defensive guards is conducive to IT scoring more points & allowing fewer. If we're playing against R Westbrook, there's no way that starting IT over Marcus is a good idea.
Interesting fact:  Opposing PGs posted a lower PER against Isaiah (13.8) than they did against either Avery (15.6) or Smart (17.8).

Which probably has more to do with the fact that he mainly played against bench players, and that these types of stats tend to make poor assumptions about who's covering who

The bulk of Isaiah's minutes came at the end of halves and the 4th.  In fact more of his minutes came in the 4th than any other period.

Do opposing starting PGs not play much in the 4th?

As to who was covering whom ... do you really think Isaiah was more often covering one of the other positions than the PG?   

Didn't consider the increased minutes in the fourth (but thanks for assuming that I think people don't play their starting PGs then). The fact remains, though, that he's playing a significant amount of time against bench players

As for the coverage, yes, IT will always be covering the PG, but both Smart and AB are often covering another position, which makes their numbers suspect (and since you're directly comparing to th, it has a big effect)
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Re: Does BS give IT the opportunity to start this season
« Reply #66 on: October 04, 2015, 11:16:19 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I guess one question is, what's your goal when thinking about starting IT?

Winning is one. But so is building player value. If Stevens can start IT and he scores 22-23 ppg in about 32 minutes, with 6+ assists and passable defense, and we're again a playoff team, then IT is in the conversation as an All-Star.

I think that increases his trade value in whatever mythical trade package Danny will assemble that brings us back a true superstar or top-3 pick.

And, like I said earlier in the thread, if he doesn't perform that well you move him back to the bench where he's still a Sixth Man of the Year candidate.

Re: Does BS give IT the opprtunity to start this season
« Reply #67 on: October 04, 2015, 11:48:04 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Only if he wants the opposing PG to have a career night offensively. IT's skilled and a good offensive player, but he's a liability on defense. It seems like starting two defensive guards is conducive to IT scoring more points & allowing fewer. If we're playing against R Westbrook, there's no way that starting IT over Marcus is a good idea.
Interesting fact:  Opposing PGs posted a lower PER against Isaiah (13.8) than they did against either Avery (15.6) or Smart (17.8).

Which probably has more to do with the fact that he mainly played against bench players, and that these types of stats tend to make poor assumptions about who's covering who

The bulk of Isaiah's minutes came at the end of halves and the 4th.  In fact more of his minutes came in the 4th than any other period.

Do opposing starting PGs not play much in the 4th?

As to who was covering whom ... do you really think Isaiah was more often covering one of the other positions than the PG?   

Didn't consider the increased minutes in the fourth (but thanks for assuming that I think people don't play their starting PGs then). The fact remains, though, that he's playing a significant amount of time against bench players

As for the coverage, yes, IT will always be covering the PG, but both Smart and AB are often covering another position, which makes their numbers suspect (and since you're directly comparing to th, it has a big effect)
I did not assume you think anything there.  I asked a question.

According to 82games.com and NylonCalculus, Avery defended SGs about 2/3 of the time and PGs about 1/3 of the time while Marcus did the inverse, defending PGs about 2/3 of the time and SGs about 1/3.

The oppositional PG PER refers to the time they were on that position.

It's debatable just what portion of Isaiah's time was spent against 'bench' players or how much that share of time compares to the share of say, Marcus' minutes that were against bench players.   A lot more study would be needed to nail that down, but I doubt it's as significant a difference as you might think.  Remember, Marcus was coming off the bench for the first half of the year. 

And Isaiah was getting just under 30 minutes.  Given that most starting PGs on most teams are going 34-38 mpg, that means Isaiah had to overlap for most of his minutes against starters, even if he covered ALL of the opposing bench PGs minutes (which is highly doubtful).

The point of these numbers (opponent PER) isn't to form an exact comparision.  PER numbers should always be taken with large grains of salt.  The point is to illustrate that Isaiah being a "defensive liability" is probably a vast overstatement.  Opposing PGs weren't lighting him up for personal bests.

If you look at how the team actually performed defensively in it's most-used 5-man lineups, Isaiah's presence or absence from those various units does NOT correlate with big changes in the defensive performance.  In fact, his presence slightly correlates with better defense (though the error bars are large due to the small sample size of the final 30 games).

A much bigger factor affecting the defensive performance, one that blows away whether Isaiah was on the floor, was the center position.  Specifically, going 'small' with guys like Bass or JJ at the center position was generally a defensive disaster.   The team performed much, MUCH better defensive so long as it had one of either Zeller or Olynyk on the floor.  Especially Zeller.  Size does, after all, matter up front.
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Re: Does BS give IT the opprtunity to start this season
« Reply #68 on: October 05, 2015, 01:18:47 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Last year, in every single lineup with Thomas and Turner, Boston had an expected win percentage above .500.  The Smart/Bradley/Turner wings produced 2 of the lowest expected win percentages last year.  I get these are smallish sample sizes, but the lineups with Thomas at the point and Turner at the SF were pretty effective lineups.

http://www.82games.com/1415/1415BOS2.HTM
I know you are correcting something someone said in an earlier point, but what do you think this information indicates?

I think this is an argument for bringing Turner off the bench with Thomas, rather than starting both.
but that is just silly.  If you have a pairing that in every single grouping is above .500 than you want to start that pairing.

Starting both would mean forcing Stevens to performing some interesting gymnastics with rotations to avoid bench lineups without any proven ball-handlers.
No it wouldn't.


Alright, explain it then.
It isn't hard to come up with a rotation that has at least Thomas or Turner on the floor.

Something like this would work just fine
Thomas, Smart, Turner - first 4 minutes
Bradley in for Thomas - next 2 minutes
Thomas in for Smart, Crowder in for Turner - next 4 minutes
Turner in for Crowder, Smart in for Bradley - next 2 minutes end of quarter

So of the 36 minutes you would get - Thomas 10 minutes, Turner 8 minutes, Smart 8 minutes, Bradley 6 minutes, Crowder 4 minutes


Subbing starters out after 4 minutes and then sending them back in after two minutes on the bench, and so on?

You may not call that rotation gymnastics, but I do.

I much prefer to have consistent lineups that get significant time on the floor together to develop continuity, rhythm, and chemistry.
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Re: Does BS give IT the opprtunity to start this season
« Reply #69 on: October 05, 2015, 06:40:14 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Last year, in every single lineup with Thomas and Turner, Boston had an expected win percentage above .500.  The Smart/Bradley/Turner wings produced 2 of the lowest expected win percentages last year.  I get these are smallish sample sizes, but the lineups with Thomas at the point and Turner at the SF were pretty effective lineups.

http://www.82games.com/1415/1415BOS2.HTM
I know you are correcting something someone said in an earlier point, but what do you think this information indicates?

I think this is an argument for bringing Turner off the bench with Thomas, rather than starting both.
but that is just silly.  If you have a pairing that in every single grouping is above .500 than you want to start that pairing.

Starting both would mean forcing Stevens to performing some interesting gymnastics with rotations to avoid bench lineups without any proven ball-handlers.
No it wouldn't.


Alright, explain it then.
It isn't hard to come up with a rotation that has at least Thomas or Turner on the floor.

Something like this would work just fine
Thomas, Smart, Turner - first 4 minutes
Bradley in for Thomas - next 2 minutes
Thomas in for Smart, Crowder in for Turner - next 4 minutes
Turner in for Crowder, Smart in for Bradley - next 2 minutes end of quarter

So of the 36 minutes you would get - Thomas 10 minutes, Turner 8 minutes, Smart 8 minutes, Bradley 6 minutes, Crowder 4 minutes


Subbing starters out after 4 minutes and then sending them back in after two minutes on the bench, and so on?

You may not call that rotation gymnastics, but I do.

I much prefer to have consistent lineups that get significant time on the floor together to develop continuity, rhythm, and chemistry.
and yet that is what happens, they end up in rotations like that.  You can keep them in longer, that was just one that came to mind.  But that is my point.  It isn't that difficult to keep at least Thomas or Turner on the floor at all times. 
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Re: Does BS give IT the opportunity to start this season
« Reply #70 on: October 05, 2015, 02:49:33 PM »

Offline ahonui06

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IT is essentially a starter because he plays starting minutes. The only difference is that he comes off the bench in the 1st quarter. He's in at the end of the games, which matters more than anything.

Re: Does BS give IT the opprtunity to start this season
« Reply #71 on: October 05, 2015, 02:54:27 PM »

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and yet that is what happens, they end up in rotations like that.  You can keep them in longer, that was just one that came to mind.  But that is my point.  It isn't that difficult to keep at least Thomas or Turner on the floor at all times.

It isn't that difficult to figure out how he'd do it, no. 

That's not the same thing as designing an effective rotation with that parameter.
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Re: Does BS give IT the opportunity to start this season
« Reply #72 on: October 06, 2015, 12:35:43 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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IT is essentially a starter because he plays starting minutes. The only difference is that he comes off the bench in the 1st quarter. He's in at the end of the games, which matters more than anything.

Well, actually, it's not quite moot.

In a conventional rotation, a starter will get about 32 minutes based on a sub pattern of:

~8 minutes to start the 1st
rest 8 minutes plus the period break
~8 minutes to end the 2nd
rest for the half-time break
~8 minutes to start the 3rd
rest 8 minutes plus the period break
~8 minutes to end the 4th

This gets a starter 32 minutes of floor time and to the stretch run in the 4th with plenty of rest.

For a bench player to get in the same number of minutes, he has to compress his playing time into a shorter span of the game.   He'll either have to play for longer runs or get shorter rest.   By the end of the 4th comes around, a bench player getting the same total minutes will be less rested than a starter.

In reality, Isaiah played just 26 mpg for us because of this.   That's not really 'starters minutes'.

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Re: Does BS give IT the opportunity to start this season
« Reply #73 on: October 06, 2015, 12:54:30 PM »

Offline Moranis

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IT is essentially a starter because he plays starting minutes. The only difference is that he comes off the bench in the 1st quarter. He's in at the end of the games, which matters more than anything.

Well, actually, it's not quite moot.

In a conventional rotation, a starter will get about 32 minutes based on a sub pattern of:

~8 minutes to start the 1st
rest 8 minutes plus the period break
~8 minutes to end the 2nd
rest for the half-time break
~8 minutes to start the 3rd
rest 8 minutes plus the period break
~8 minutes to end the 4th

This gets a starter 32 minutes of floor time and to the stretch run in the 4th with plenty of rest.

For a bench player to get in the same number of minutes, he has to compress his playing time into a shorter span of the game.   He'll either have to play for longer runs or get shorter rest.   By the end of the 4th comes around, a bench player getting the same total minutes will be less rested than a starter.

In reality, Isaiah played just 26 mpg for us because of this.   That's not really 'starters minutes'.
Only 1 celtic had 32 minutes a game last year.  Jeff Green.  Rondo at 31.8 was 2nd.   Bradley was 3rd at 31.5.
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Re: Does BS give IT the opportunity to start this season
« Reply #74 on: October 06, 2015, 12:57:37 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Only 1 celtic had 32 minutes a game last year.  Jeff Green.  Rondo at 31.8 was 2nd.   Bradley was 3rd at 31.5.

Indeed, because nobody on the team was really good enough to play major minutes like that.


To get the most out of IT, I'd probably bring him in about halfway through the first quarter, then keep him out there through the start of the 2nd, rest him for a few minutes midway through the second, then have him close out the half.  Rinse and repeat for the second half.
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