Author Topic: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract  (Read 6347 times)

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Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2015, 06:17:34 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Heck, 16m is a lot even with the raises in cap.


Maybe.

Last year, the cap was $63.2 million.  A $16 million per year contract was about 25% of the cap.  That's big money.

When the cap leaps to around $100 million in a couple of years, $16 million will be only 16% of the cap (duh).  That would be the equivalent of $10 million per year in the most recent season's cap climate.

In other words . . . solid starter money, with a little bit of a premium added on for a young player with a high draft pedigree.
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Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2015, 06:18:32 PM »

Offline Timdawgg

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This stuff makes me appreciate what we have...The more types of offers we see like this getting rejected makes Danny look even smarter for signing and trading for players like Bradley  ($8m) & Isaiah Thomas ($7Mil)..Those will seem like dirt cheap contracts soon.
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Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2015, 06:19:20 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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This stuff makes me appreciate what we have...The more types of offers we see like this getting rejected makes Danny look even smarter for signing and trading for players like Bradley  ($8m) & Isaiah Thomas ($7Mil)..Those will seem like dirt cheap contracts soon.

True, but contracts tend to be dirt cheap for a reason.  IT and Bradley are nice players, but neither is a guaranteed starter on a typical playoff squad.

You get what you pay for.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2015, 06:25:26 PM »

Offline Big333223

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This stuff makes me appreciate what we have...The more types of offers we see like this getting rejected makes Danny look even smarter for signing and trading for players like Bradley  ($8m) & Isaiah Thomas ($7Mil)..Those will seem like dirt cheap contracts soon.

True, but contracts tend to be dirt cheap for a reason.  IT and Bradley are nice players, but neither is a guaranteed starter on a typical playoff squad.

You get what you pay for.
Sort of. But Thomas' contract is an utter steal at this point and will keep getting better.
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Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2015, 07:17:15 PM »

Offline saltlover

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This stuff makes me appreciate what we have...The more types of offers we see like this getting rejected makes Danny look even smarter for signing and trading for players like Bradley  ($8m) & Isaiah Thomas ($7Mil)..Those will seem like dirt cheap contracts soon.

True, but contracts tend to be dirt cheap for a reason.  IT and Bradley are nice players, but neither is a guaranteed starter on a typical playoff squad.

You get what you pay for.

You know Bradley has been a starter on three playoff teams in his five-year career, right? I mean, he's never once come off the bench in the playoffs.  Those teams have been a veteran squad that made the conference finals (granted he got injured in the middle of the second round, but he still got 10 starts), an aging team that faded in the playoffs, and an upstart team that surprised most everyone by getting to the playoffs.  That's three different types of playoff teams, which describe most sorts of playoff teams that exist every year.

AB is absolutely a starter on playoff teams.  I fully expect that he'll be a playoff starter again, this year on a division-winner that loses to LeBron in whichever round his team is unfortunate enough to play him.

Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2015, 07:26:39 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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You know Bradley has been a starter on three playoff teams in his five-year career, right?

Sure, but Sasha Pavlovic was a starter on a team that went to the Finals.

I don't think Avery is a guaranteed starter on most of the good teams in the league.

Just go on down the list --

Warriors (no),
Spurs (no),
Clippers (no),
Rockets (no),
Grizzlies (no, unless TA starts at SF),
Thunder (probably),
Cavs (no),
Mavs (no)
Suns (no)
Pelicans (no)
Bulls (not unless Butler is at SF),
Bucks (no),
Wizards (no),
Heat (no),
Raptors (not unless Derozan is at the 3)
Hawks (no)

I mean, I think it's pretty conclusive.  I'm not suggesting Bradley isn't good enough to give a playoff team quality starts.  Rather, I'm pointing out that Bradley is probably not even an average starter at his position.  A fine piece, like most of the guys in the Celts' rotation, but not a difference maker.
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Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2015, 07:33:45 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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This stuff makes me appreciate what we have...The more types of offers we see like this getting rejected makes Danny look even smarter for signing and trading for players like Bradley  ($8m) & Isaiah Thomas ($7Mil)..Those will seem like dirt cheap contracts soon.

True, but contracts tend to be dirt cheap for a reason.  IT and Bradley are nice players, but neither is a guaranteed starter on a typical playoff squad.

You get what you pay for.
Sort of. But Thomas' contract is an utter steal at this point and will keep getting better.

I think it's a great value.  At the same time, I think he's a sixth man. 

My point here is just that while it's never a bad thing to have nice role players on good value deals, it's not like Ainge can just keep 'out smarting' every one with this bargain deals and build a great team that way. 

He's going to have to acquire some big pieces, possibly for big money or by trading picks and a top prospect or two.
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Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2015, 07:46:24 PM »

Offline saltlover

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You know Bradley has been a starter on three playoff teams in his five-year career, right?

Sure, but Sasha Pavlovic was a starter on a team that went to the Finals.

I don't think Avery is a guaranteed starter on most of the good teams in the league.

Just go on down the list --

Warriors (no),
Spurs (no),
Clippers (no),
Rockets (no),
Grizzlies (no, unless TA starts at SF),
Thunder (probably),
Cavs (no),
Mavs (no)
Suns (no)
Pelicans (no)
Bulls (not unless Butler is at SF),
Bucks (no),
Wizards (no),
Heat (no),
Raptors (not unless Derozan is at the 3)
Hawks (no)

I mean, I think it's pretty conclusive.  I'm not suggesting Bradley isn't good enough to give a playoff team quality starts.  Rather, I'm pointing out that Bradley is probably not even an average starter at his position.  A fine piece, like most of the guys in the Celts' rotation, but not a difference maker.

It wouldn't at all surprise me if Bradley started over Redick in Clipperland, certainly over TA in Memphis, over Shumpert in Cleveland, and you already talked about 2-3 other teams he could start on, plus the Celtics.  Being able to start on near half of the playoff teams (don't know why you included Mavs, since they're not looking like one at all this year, and you're assuming Johnson bounces back to 100% after a severe injury, which is an aggressive assumption) means you're playoff starter material.  No, he's not an All-Star, so he's not likely to start on every team.  And if he's your second-best starter, you're in trouble.  But he's a viable starter on many playoff teams, and at a certain point, that means you're a starter on a typical playoff team.

Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2015, 08:11:59 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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No, he's not an All-Star, so he's not likely to start on every team.  And if he's your second-best starter, you're in trouble.

I guess we'll have to disagree on this one.

To me he's just an adequate option as a starter because he can shoot and defend, so he doesn't take away that much, especially if your PG is big and is a dominant ball-handler.  He's not particularly good at anything, though, other than defending point guards.

You say if he's your second-best starter, you're in trouble.  I agree, but I think you're in trouble if he's an important piece for your team at all.  He's an easily replaced role player. 

Personally, I think he's very replaceable because he's a very poor ball-handler, he's a streaky outside shooter who's prone to taking too many mid-range shots, and his size limits his ability to defend larger guards and wings.


Anyway, this thread isn't supposed to be about the merits of Avery Bradley, so I'll try to end this discussion there. 

My opinion of him is probably on the low end for most Celtics fans, but I think we can agree on this: Avery is a nice player to have, but he's not going to be the difference between mediocrity and winning a playoff series.
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Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2015, 08:20:05 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm not saying Barnes is going to be a future star, but this is totally the type of James Harden-esque trade one makes when they are attempting to take a big swing on an under-appreciated young asset with a potentially bright future.   Is Barnes the next Harden?  Probably not... but there's a set of circumstances surrounding him that makes a post-Warriors leap plausible.

He started 82 regular season games for the champs, he's 23 years old and he put up per-36 averages of 12.8 points, 7 rebounds, 1.8 assists with 48%/41%/72% shooting.   I imagine his peak might be more in the Jeff Green territory, though.

Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #25 on: September 24, 2015, 09:48:41 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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16m per is NOT solid starter money, AB @8 is solid starter money. 16m is star money b/c it's max for him. Sully may not be a defender (lazy) but some of you would lose it if we only offered him 10, and Sully is a big with a lot of potential left too! Many people make less than 16m and are better than he is!

There are a few things you need to consider here.

Firstly, AB was signed to $8M when the cap was up around $58M - this would put his deal at about 14% of the cap a the time of signing.  That's roughly half of a max contract and, as you said, about right for a solid starter like AB.

If I understand correctly Barnes is still under contract for this upcoming season, so if he signed this extension the new contract would start in 2016/17, when the salary cap is expected to rise to about $90M.  In that case 14% of the the cap (equivalent to AB's deal) would be around $13M, so a $16M deal for a player with Barne's upside is really not excessive at all - it's about equivalent to $10M / year when Bradley signed his deal. 

Then once you consider that the cap is expected to rise even more in the years after this (to over $100M) Barnes' $16M deal suddenly becomes roughly on par with what AB is making now.

Now Barnes (only 23 years old) has excellent size for for the SF position (at 6'8"), he's an outstanding athlete, he's been extremely healthy (has missed only 3 games out of 244 so far in three seasons), he's a quality defender, he can get to the basket and he can shoot (career 37% 3PT). 

It's also worth noting that while he didn't score at a huge rate this year (12.8 Points Per 36) he had very efficient scoring numbers for a perimeter player (48% FG, 40% 3PT).  This tells me that he was playing very comfortably within himself, and that he likely could have (and would have) scored at a much higher rate if he wasn't playing behind Curry and Thompson in the offense.

It sounds a lot of money because I think we all still have our minds stuck on where the cap has been the last 4 or 5 years, and it's hard to make that mental adjustment.  We are used to thinking of $16M as max contract money, and it'll probably take time for us to adjust to the idea that under the new cap $16M is really just 'solid starter' money.

This is why I think the Bucks have a ridiculous bargain with Monroe.


I see his a floor of Trevor Ariza and a ceiling of Paul George - in either situation a $16M deal would look pretty good by the time that deal stars.


Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #26 on: September 24, 2015, 11:42:29 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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This stuff makes me appreciate what we have...The more types of offers we see like this getting rejected makes Danny look even smarter for signing and trading for players like Bradley  ($8m) & Isaiah Thomas ($7Mil)..Those will seem like dirt cheap contracts soon.

True, but contracts tend to be dirt cheap for a reason.  IT and Bradley are nice players, but neither is a guaranteed starter on a typical playoff squad.

You get what you pay for.

What we have in Thomas and Bradley is not, IMHO, getting what we paid for.

When the cap reaches $90M next year Bradley's contract will be about 9% of the cap, which would be the equivalent of about $5M back when Bradley was signed (as the cap was around $58M then).  That's MLE money, and Bradley is significantly more than a MLE player.

Same with Thomas.

Those guys were solid value on their deals back when the cap was < $60M.  They are absolute bargains on the new cap. 

Obviously Barnes at $16M a year isn't as good value initially as those guys are now, but I'm convinced that Barnes has a pretty high upside, and that he could easily make that $16M deal look like a bargain by the time he's 25.

Even if Barnes never raches that other level and were to stay at his current level of production, $16M is till not an unreasonable number for him under the new cap structure.  It's certainly not a steal (maybe just the slightest bit on the high side) but it's not unreasonable.

Compare it to what Iman Shumpert got - Barnes is far better than Shumpert IMO. 

Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #27 on: September 25, 2015, 02:07:12 AM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

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AB at 23 shot 44/40, people called 7-9m an overpay, now HB shoots 48/40 and gets double for 4% difference in 2pt shooting? Never mind him being an offensive afterthought with two snipers beside him taking the heat off of him.

I like HB and would like us to get him, but that's still a lot of money and he turned it down!  :o

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Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #28 on: September 25, 2015, 02:32:45 AM »

Offline BornReady

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true that most guys would be getting deals above their normal value next summer
but still Im not so sure Barnes lives up to the expectations
as he has had a tough time living up expectations since his UNC

I would want to see a season of consistency before buying high

And after seeing him in the pros
I wouldnt really be excited if he joined us as hes not a franchise changing talent

Re: Harrison Barnes -- rejecting a 4 year/$64 mill contract
« Reply #29 on: September 25, 2015, 03:04:39 AM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

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true that most guys would be getting deals above their normal value next summer
but still Im not so sure Barnes lives up to the expectations
as he has had a tough time living up expectations since his UNC

I would want to see a season of consistency before buying high

And after seeing him in the pros
I wouldnt really be excited if he joined us as hes not a franchise changing talent

15 players on a 30 teams, a handful of them are lucky to get ONE franchise changing talent. HB doesn't have to be that for me to be excited if he was a Cs. These type of expectations are really out there, people think it's so easy to get franchise changing talent that they rather stink for years  (while not watching the games or supporting the garbage play) while trying to find one. Everyone wants to have that great player but the reality is, you will still need HB types to help that guy do his job.

oops,I must be on drugs b4 edit haha.
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