Author Topic: Trades for some SF's  (Read 3241 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Trades for some SF's
« Reply #15 on: September 07, 2015, 08:43:24 PM »

Offline Smitty77

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3063
  • Tommy Points: 269
As a guy that has followed the Wolves pretty closely, I can say:

1) The TWolves would never trade Muhammed for Evan Turner, and their fans and front office would probably scoff at the offer. Muhammed is viewed as their sixth man, and possible starting SF, of the future. He is a back up only because the Wolves have Kevin Martin on the team. If Martin is traded or injured, the consensus is that they will start Wiggins at SG and Muhammed at SF. (Wiggins played minutes at the 2 last year. Zach Lavine is viewed as a future two-guard, not PG, in an ideal world.) He was also a lottery pick, and his recent improvement gives Saunders no reason to drop his value.

2) Muhammed is improving. He's like the Wolves' offensive version of Avery Bradley. His uptick in 3-pt percentage last year (I believe over 36%) was a huge development in a guy that mostly relied on left-block post ups to score the previous year. He's entering that "make or break" third year where he basically plateaus or keeps improving, and almost everyone is high on him.

3) Some (emphasis on "some") people are comparing him to Jimmy Butler (as his counting stats are similar to Butler right before he broke out).

4) Defense is not exactly his strongest skill, although the Wolves as a team were pretty horrid on that end.

Your comment about his defense could be the understatement of the year!!  He was ranked 76th out of 80 SF's in defense in the entire league.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/5

Therefore, your analogy comparing him to AB, and All-NBA defender, falls apart very quickly.

Smitty77

I thought I've been around long enough to have my analogies read into a little more :P I would never ever compare Muhammed's and Bradley's style of play. I meant he's their AB in the sense that he's completely overrated locally while simaltaneously being labeled as "always improving (woohoo!)." And just as analytics hate Muhammed's defense, they hate AB's offense. Objectively, they're not that great (just okay), but because of their labels and local niches, they become "household name" types for local fans.

Also, the Wolves were a horrible defense whereas the Celtics had a solid offense. So if the Celtics had a toilet offense and AB averaged 8 points per game and the Wovles had a top-13 defense with Muhammed playing "league average" defense, the situations would be flipped. Bradley's weakness is not in a position to be exposed because Stevens runs such a high-volume offense. So he puts up okay counting stats on offense (while still being hated in the analytics world for being inefficient and shooting all long twos) while playing his great defense on a league-average one. Conversely, Muhammed put up good (not great) offensive numbers on a team with a terrible offense (28th in ppg), but his weakness (defense) was exacerbated by the Wolve's terrible team D (I believe it was 30th in the NBA), not covered-up like Bradley's.

EDIT: The Wolves were 30th in the league last year in both points allowed per game and defensive rating. I'm a big believer that defense, especially defensive plus-minus, is more of a correlative stat based on team performance than a stat rooted in actual skill. So while Muhammed's defense is not great, I don't think it's as horrible as some stats would make it out to be.

My bad Get Lucky for misunderstanding your analogy!!  You make some good points.  But, AB is not quite as bad on offense as SM is on defense.  I still don't understand WHY ESPN still lists AB as a PG.  That is very frustrating.  Anyway, AB is 58th out of 83 PG's on offense.

Peace,

Smitty77