Author Topic: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer  (Read 8212 times)

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Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #30 on: September 02, 2015, 03:14:31 PM »

Offline mef730

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The Mavs are giving us a lottery pick as are the Nets.  Can't wait until college basketball starts.  Can't wait to watch Ben Simmons.

Kills me that he's a likely superstar and will be playing in Philly next year.

Mike

Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #31 on: September 02, 2015, 03:43:39 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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The Mavs are giving us a lottery pick as are the Nets.  Can't wait until college basketball starts.  Can't wait to watch Ben Simmons.

Kills me that he's a likely superstar and will be playing in Philly next year.

Mike

The fact that this statement can apply to the last three drafts is kind of hilarious though.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #32 on: September 02, 2015, 04:30:25 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The Mavs are giving us a lottery pick as are the Nets.  Can't wait until college basketball starts.  Can't wait to watch Ben Simmons.

Kills me that he's a likely superstar and will be playing in Philly next year.

Mike

Even funnier that they are probably 0 for 3 on superstars. If they had wiggins, Towns and Noel they would be in so much better shape.

The fact that this statement can apply to the last three drafts is kind of hilarious though.

Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #33 on: September 03, 2015, 12:15:51 PM »

Offline mef730

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The Mavs are giving us a lottery pick as are the Nets.  Can't wait until college basketball starts.  Can't wait to watch Ben Simmons.

Kills me that he's a likely superstar and will be playing in Philly next year.

Mike

Well, when you put it that way...

Proof that I'm thinking about this stuff way too much: The other night, I had a dream that the Nets pick ended up as #1 and we drafted Ben Simmons. When I woke up, I had that glorious moment before you realize that a good dream was just that: a dream. Then real life set in, so I went back to sleep. And had exactly the same dream.

Mike

The fact that this statement can apply to the last three drafts is kind of hilarious though.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2015, 12:31:30 PM by mef730 »

Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #34 on: September 03, 2015, 01:13:12 PM »

Offline chambers

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I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree . . . unless they do what the Warriors did in 2012 to get Harrison Barnes.

Cuban is not stupid.

I agree Cuban is not stupid.

However...

How do you sell free agent to be Parsons to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be Deron Williams to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be and nearing the end of the line Dirk to sit out?
How do you sell the ultra competitive Matthews to sit out?

While your speculation is reasonable, the Golden State situation isn't applicable to this bunch. These are veteran players who will be playing for their next contract, I didn't even include Zaza, Felton, Villanueva, etc. as other players also on expiring deals. I doubt they care more about securing a top 7 pick then they do their own contracts.
or they could just make the playoffs and then keep the pick that way.


Please explain?
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Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #35 on: September 04, 2015, 08:28:03 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree . . . unless they do what the Warriors did in 2012 to get Harrison Barnes.

Cuban is not stupid.

I agree Cuban is not stupid.

However...

How do you sell free agent to be Parsons to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be Deron Williams to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be and nearing the end of the line Dirk to sit out?
How do you sell the ultra competitive Matthews to sit out?

While your speculation is reasonable, the Golden State situation isn't applicable to this bunch. These are veteran players who will be playing for their next contract, I didn't even include Zaza, Felton, Villanueva, etc. as other players also on expiring deals. I doubt they care more about securing a top 7 pick then they do their own contracts.
or they could just make the playoffs and then keep the pick that way.


Please explain?
I had thought it was double protected, but it was not.
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Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #36 on: September 04, 2015, 09:47:45 AM »

Offline GratefulCs

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I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree . . . unless they do what the Warriors did in 2012 to get Harrison Barnes.

Cuban is not stupid.

I agree Cuban is not stupid.

However...

How do you sell free agent to be Parsons to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be Deron Williams to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be and nearing the end of the line Dirk to sit out?
How do you sell the ultra competitive Matthews to sit out?

While your speculation is reasonable, the Golden State situation isn't applicable to this bunch. These are veteran players who will be playing for their next contract, I didn't even include Zaza, Felton, Villanueva, etc. as other players also on expiring deals. I doubt they care more about securing a top 7 pick then they do their own contracts.
or they could just make the playoffs and then keep the pick that way.


Please explain?
I had thought it was double protected, but it was not.
it might have been last year
I trust Danny Ainge

Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #37 on: September 04, 2015, 09:57:04 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Correct. Now it's just top 6(7?) protected.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #38 on: September 04, 2015, 11:28:52 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Correct. Now it's just top 6(7?) protected.
seven.
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Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #39 on: September 04, 2015, 12:14:19 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The best case scenario for the Mavs is that their core group of vets shows a high ceiling this year, but they ultimately pack it in, veteran talent on the roster notwithstanding, and manage to squeak in under than top 7 threshold.

Then, they use that top 7 pick plus their cap space next summer to retain Deron, Wes, Parsons, and Dirk while adding significantly to that group, and the following year they return to the playoffs and end up giving up a pick in the late teens -- the sort of pick they rarely use and develop as a franchise, anyway.

Maybe it's outrageously pessimistic to think that could come to pass, but as I've said, we need only look a few years back to see what happened with that Warriors team.  It's not like that Warriors team was lacking in talent, though it was concentrated entirely on the offensive end, much like the Mavs.
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Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #40 on: September 04, 2015, 12:50:17 PM »

Offline MBunge

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The best case scenario for the Mavs is that their core group of vets shows a high ceiling this year, but they ultimately pack it in, veteran talent on the roster notwithstanding, and manage to squeak in under than top 7 threshold.

Then, they use that top 7 pick plus their cap space next summer to retain Deron, Wes, Parsons, and Dirk while adding significantly to that group, and the following year they return to the playoffs and end up giving up a pick in the late teens -- the sort of pick they rarely use and develop as a franchise, anyway.


If the Mavs exercise their option on Powell and Dirk, Deron and Parsons all take their player options for next year, Dallas will be about 36 million under the projected cap for 2016-2017 for seven players under contract.

There's no way Deron won't want more money if he plays at all well this year, so that will eat into the cap space.  I would bet it would at least drop down into the upper 20s.  So, Dallas would have room for basically one max player or two lower mid-level guys, who are all going to be expecting big deals with the higher cap.  And as loyal as Dirk is, I can't imagine him being pleased at wasting yet another year of his career while the Mavs tank.  It's not like Dirk is going to be around to benefit much from next year's draft pick.

Honestly, the best case for the Mavs is to go all out for the playoffs, hand Ainge a pick in the upper teens and then blow it up next year.

Mike

Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #41 on: September 04, 2015, 02:19:10 PM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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Honestly, the best case for the Mavs is to go all out for the playoffs, hand Ainge a pick in the upper teens and then blow it up next year.

Absolutely. It just doesn't make sense to me that they'd tank this year, given that they'd risk falling above the bottom-7 anyway (a lot of really bad teams out there, as a previous poster mentioned), and the motivation of some players nearing the end of their deals (or in Dirk's case, end of his career). In other words: No choice but to compete as hard as you can.

But the next question is, Even if the Mavs go all out this year, just how good can they be? I am really skeptical. Keep in mind that a 45-win team (OKC) missed the playoffs last year. That almost seems like the ceiling for this current Mavs team.
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Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #42 on: September 04, 2015, 02:25:55 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Honestly, the best case for the Mavs is to go all out for the playoffs, hand Ainge a pick in the upper teens and then blow it up next year.

Mike

I think the Mavs' hands are tied for this year.  I don't see how they can really go all-out for the playoffs, as much as they may want to.  All they'll accomplish by going all-out is ensure that the Celts get a late lottery pick.

Dirk may not like it, but if he wants to have one more truly competitive season, the best way to accomplish that is to hang back another season and try to improve the team as much as possible next summer while retaining the Deron - Matthews - Parsons - Dirk core group that will get some good reps in this year when they aren't taking it easy on the bench.
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Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #43 on: September 04, 2015, 02:44:24 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Quote
Honestly, the best case for the Mavs is to go all out for the playoffs, hand Ainge a pick in the upper teens and then blow it up next year.

Absolutely. It just doesn't make sense to me that they'd tank this year, given that they'd risk falling above the bottom-7 anyway (a lot of really bad teams out there, as a previous poster mentioned), and the motivation of some players nearing the end of their deals (or in Dirk's case, end of his career). In other words: No choice but to compete as hard as you can.

But the next question is, Even if the Mavs go all out this year, just how good can they be? I am really skeptical. Keep in mind that a 45-win team (OKC) missed the playoffs last year. That almost seems like the ceiling for this current Mavs team.
I think the bottom of the west playoffs will be a lot closer to the East.  The West still has more great teams, but I don't think the 7th and 8th seeds will have a record all that much better than the 7th and 8th teams in the East. 

Dallas won 50 games last year.  Losing Chandler hurts them, but I don't think this is an epic 20 game difference type of loss.  If Dallas can stay healthy, I would expect them to be in the 40-45 win range, which I think puts them in the playoffs (or just missing them).   
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Re: Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer
« Reply #44 on: September 04, 2015, 03:04:17 PM »

Offline chambers

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Quote
Honestly, the best case for the Mavs is to go all out for the playoffs, hand Ainge a pick in the upper teens and then blow it up next year.

Absolutely. It just doesn't make sense to me that they'd tank this year, given that they'd risk falling above the bottom-7 anyway (a lot of really bad teams out there, as a previous poster mentioned), and the motivation of some players nearing the end of their deals (or in Dirk's case, end of his career). In other words: No choice but to compete as hard as you can.

But the next question is, Even if the Mavs go all out this year, just how good can they be? I am really skeptical. Keep in mind that a 45-win team (OKC) missed the playoffs last year. That almost seems like the ceiling for this current Mavs team.

Yeah it's going to be a struggle for them to get into the playoffs.
Dirk will miss some time, Parsons coming back from injury, Mathews coming back from injury. Deron needs a jolt up the azz and their starting center is going to be Paculia or Dalambert.
Not exactly a sunny outlook on their playoff hopes.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.