Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer

[celticsclay]

The worst that happens if they don't convey their pick to us this year is that we get a pick in the 8-14 range next year.  And given the amount of picks we have this season, that's arguably the preferable option.

I'd much rather get the pick in the 8-12 range this year.  I don't think the Mavs will be really good anytime soon, but Cuban will continue to try to make them decent so long as Dirk is playing, especially if he doesn't get screwed over by a seven foot child in free agency again.

I think it's much more likely to be top 10 this year than it would be next year.  So yeah, I'm concerned the Mavs will make a point of ending up with a top 7 pick.

Your pessimism on both picks is pretty entertaining. The nets are somehow going to not be a bottom 6 team but Dallas is, despite pretty much every source of information  (vegas totals, power rating systems) you could find projecting the opposite.

[MJohnnyboy]

I don't think Rick Carlisle has any interest in tanking, and if that's what Cuban decides to do, then Carlisle will pull a Doc Rivers. My gut feeling tells me the Mavericks are going to try. On paper they have a passable starting 5 but not all that special and they don't exactly have a great bench to help them out. The only teams in the west that I see doing worse than Dallas this year are Portland, Minnesota, Denver, and the Lakers, which is just perfect for that pick they owe us factoring in the weak teams in the east.

We already know the Western conference shoo-ins are Golden State, San Antonio, Clippers, Houston, Oklahoma City, and Memphis. The last two spots I think will go to New Orleans and Utah. Hence, that pick should be lottery. But then there's the mid tier west teams like Phoenix and Sacramento who I think are better overall teams than the Mavericks as it stands.

The Mavs are right where the Celtics want them. Too good to be "bad" but too bad to be "good".

[chambers]

I'm really not worried about them finishing bottom 7.
A team of
D Williams
Wes Mathews
Parsons
Dirk
Pachulia

with

Dalambert
Devon Harris
Barea
Villaneuva
Felton
Javale McGee
Juston Anderson

is going to be just too good to give up.
Even if they lose Dirk to injury I think that Parsons, Mathews and Williams will attempt to take on the scoring load. Dirk has played on one leg for the last 3 years anyway.

I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

[Boris Badenov]

I'm really not worried about them finishing bottom 7.
A team of
D Williams
Wes Mathews
Parsons
Dirk
Pachulia

with

Dalambert
Devon Harris
Barea
Villaneuva
Felton
Javale McGee
Juston Anderson

is going to be just too good to give up.
Even if they lose Dirk to injury I think that Parsons, Mathews and Williams will attempt to take on the scoring load. Dirk has played on one leg for the last 3 years anyway.

I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree with this assessment.

[Surferdad]

I'm really not worried about them finishing bottom 7.
A team of
D Williams
Wes Mathews
Parsons
Dirk
Pachulia

with

Dalambert
Devon Harris
Barea
Villaneuva
Felton
Javale McGee
Juston Anderson

is going to be just too good to give up.
Even if they lose Dirk to injury I think that Parsons, Mathews and Williams will attempt to take on the scoring load. Dirk has played on one leg for the last 3 years anyway.

I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree with this assessment.

Ditto

[slamtheking]

I'm really not worried about them finishing bottom 7.
A team of
D Williams
Wes Mathews
Parsons
Dirk
Pachulia

with

Dalambert
Devon Harris
Barea
Villaneuva
Felton
Javale McGee
Juston Anderson

is going to be just too good to give up.
Even if they lose Dirk to injury I think that Parsons, Mathews and Williams will attempt to take on the scoring load. Dirk has played on one leg for the last 3 years anyway.

I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree with this assessment.

Ditto

agreed - somewhere in the 8-10 range. 

I'd put Porland, Denver, Brooklyn and Philly as locks to finish worse.  Lakers and Knicks fighting for a similar record as Dallas.  Detroit and Sac could falter as well and finish worse.  Charlotte and Indy (depending on PG and Ellis meshing and health) could falter as well.

[PhoSita]

The worst that happens if they don't convey their pick to us this year is that we get a pick in the 8-14 range next year.  And given the amount of picks we have this season, that's arguably the preferable option.

I'd much rather get the pick in the 8-12 range this year.  I don't think the Mavs will be really good anytime soon, but Cuban will continue to try to make them decent so long as Dirk is playing, especially if he doesn't get screwed over by a seven foot child in free agency again.

I think it's much more likely to be top 10 this year than it would be next year.  So yeah, I'm concerned the Mavs will make a point of ending up with a top 7 pick.

Your pessimism on both picks is pretty entertaining. The nets are somehow going to not be a bottom 6 team but Dallas is, despite pretty much every source of information  (vegas totals, power rating systems) you could find projecting the opposite.

I think it's more likely they'll both end up in the 10-15 range, for what it's worth.

Just saying, if I had to choose between getting the pick this year or having it roll over, I'd rather get it sooner.

[PhoSita]

I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree . . . unless they do what the Warriors did in 2012 to get Harrison Barnes.

Cuban is not stupid.

[SHAQATTACK]

Maybe

They 'll

Recall

Rondo back to save them .......but .....there he'd have to,play defense .........

Been years ya know .....

[Eddie20]

I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree . . . unless they do what the Warriors did in 2012 to get Harrison Barnes.

Cuban is not stupid.

I agree Cuban is not stupid.

However...

How do you sell free agent to be Parsons to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be Deron Williams to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be and nearing the end of the line Dirk to sit out?
How do you sell the ultra competitive Matthews to sit out?

While your speculation is reasonable, the Golden State situation isn't applicable to this bunch. These are veteran players who will be playing for their next contract, I didn't even include Zaza, Felton, Villanueva, etc. as other players also on expiring deals. I doubt they care more about securing a top 7 pick then they do their own contracts.

[manl_lui]

Playoff teams in the West that are a lock:
San Antonio
Golden State
OK City
LA Clippers
Houston
Memphis

So that leaves 2 teams for the 7th and 8th

New Orleans
Sacramento
LA Lakers
Phoenix
Utah
Minnesota
Denver
Portland
Dallas..

Don't think Dallas will make it

I don't think Portland makes it either...or the Lakers....or the Nuggets

I kinda wish Minny makes it...new backcourt of Lavine and WIggins, and Towns...man, I want to see that team make it now...with KG mentoring Towns...

Sacramento might be fun to watch

I'm meh on Phoenix, and with the whole Morris saga

I think NO makes it again

[celticsclay]

I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree . . . unless they do what the Warriors did in 2012 to get Harrison Barnes.

Cuban is not stupid.

The situation with the Warriors is not really a fair comparison. Their biggest "tank move" was trading monta ellis for an injured Andrew Bogut. They believed (and rightfully so) that this move would help their roster construct in the future but also could help them lose games in the current season. So first Dallas has to find an injured player they could parsons for. He can't trade Parsons or Matthews for a year if I understand correctly, and obviously is not going to trade Dirk for an injured player. That is one big problem.

Their other tanking moves? "Benching" David Lee and Curry with injuries. There are two things people forget here. One, Curry's ankles were a real problem and the Warriors were legitmately concerned about them. Here is an article from a year later that kind of covers it http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9273221/stephen-curry-bad-ankles (Not to mention Curry was not even as close to what he is today back then)

So what else did they do to tank? They had a real bad back end of the roster. Check out their box score from the end of the tank
http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=320418009

The Mavericks do not have 10 players like that on their roster. It seems pretty naive to believe

The further you dig into these situations the more apples to oranges a comparison it becomes.

[Moranis]

I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree . . . unless they do what the Warriors did in 2012 to get Harrison Barnes.

Cuban is not stupid.

I agree Cuban is not stupid.

However...

How do you sell free agent to be Parsons to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be Deron Williams to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be and nearing the end of the line Dirk to sit out?
How do you sell the ultra competitive Matthews to sit out?

While your speculation is reasonable, the Golden State situation isn't applicable to this bunch. These are veteran players who will be playing for their next contract, I didn't even include Zaza, Felton, Villanueva, etc. as other players also on expiring deals. I doubt they care more about securing a top 7 pick then they do their own contracts.

or they could just make the playoffs and then keep the pick that way.

[celticsclay]

I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree . . . unless they do what the Warriors did in 2012 to get Harrison Barnes.

Cuban is not stupid.

I agree Cuban is not stupid.

However...

How do you sell free agent to be Parsons to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be Deron Williams to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be and nearing the end of the line Dirk to sit out?
How do you sell the ultra competitive Matthews to sit out?

While your speculation is reasonable, the Golden State situation isn't applicable to this bunch. These are veteran players who will be playing for their next contract, I didn't even include Zaza, Felton, Villanueva, etc. as other players also on expiring deals. I doubt they care more about securing a top 7 pick then they do their own contracts.

or they could just make the playoffs and then keep the pick that way.

that is a lot more likely. The debate of them finishing with a pick in the bottom 7 is pretty ludicrous. For one, they really have to finish bottom 6 to feel comfortable they wont get bumped 1 spot by a team lower in the lottery. Secondly, teams like the 76ers, Denver, Portland are going to be losing all their games from day one. Team like Brooklyn and the Lakers just have inferior talent. Finally at the end of the season there will be many teams that want to tank to get a draft pick, not just the Mavericks potentially. Fans always seem to forget that when thinking about tanking. 

[fairweatherfan]

I think they're perfectly set up to give us a pick somewhere between 10-14.

I agree . . . unless they do what the Warriors did in 2012 to get Harrison Barnes.

Cuban is not stupid.

I agree Cuban is not stupid.

However...

How do you sell free agent to be Parsons to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be Deron Williams to sit out?
How do you sell free agent to be and nearing the end of the line Dirk to sit out?
How do you sell the ultra competitive Matthews to sit out?

While your speculation is reasonable, the Golden State situation isn't applicable to this bunch. These are veteran players who will be playing for their next contract, I didn't even include Zaza, Felton, Villanueva, etc. as other players also on expiring deals. I doubt they care more about securing a top 7 pick then they do their own contracts.

or they could just make the playoffs and then keep the pick that way.

Nah, it's not protected on both sides like it was last year.  The Mavs only keep their 2016 pick if it's top 7.  Doesn't matter where else it falls, we still get it.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed