Gloomy assessment on the Mavs from Kelly Dwyer

[Ed Hollison]

If you're wondering about that 1st round pick coming to us from Dallas next year, you'll enjoy reading this:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/bdl-25--what-the-hell-will-the-dallas-mavericks-even-look-like-202139144.html

We’re not reminding the Mavericks, or their fans, of anything they don’t already know. This season was always going to be a struggle, even if DeAndre Jordan stayed true to his initial decision. This is still going to be an odd, offense-heavy and hopefully not too-sad team in 2015-16, though. We just hope it does enough to convince Dirk Nowitzki to commit to his player option and come back for one more shot in 2016.

But read the whole article...

Honestly, at this point my bigger concern regarding that pick is that Dallas is too bad (pick's top-7 protected) rather than too good. Given the strength of the West, I don't see any conceivable way that pick isn't in the lottery.

[PhoSita]

I agree with you.

My biggest concern is that the Mavs get off to a rocky start and then use that as an excuse to rest Dirk and allow Parsons and Matthews extended time to "rehab" and "recuperate" from their recent injuries and surgeries.

It makes too much sense for the Mavs to tank and basically do what the Warriors did in order to get Harrison Barnes.  That would be a bummer for us, to say the least.

[Birdman]

Playoff teams in the West that are a lock:
San Antonio
Golden State
OK City
LA Clippers
Houston
Memphis

So that leaves 2 teams for the 7th and 8th

New Orleans
Sacramento
LA Lakers
Phoenix
Utah
Minnesota
Denver
Portland
Dallas..

Don't think Dallas will make it

[Eddie20]

I agree with you.

My biggest concern is that the Mavs get off to a rocky start and then use that as an excuse to rest Dirk and allow Parsons and Matthews extended time to "rehab" and "recuperate" from their recent injuries and surgeries.

It makes too much sense for the Mavs to tank and basically do what the Warriors did in order to get Harrison Barnes.  That would be a bummer for us, to say the least.

The problem with that thinking is that both Dirk and Parsons are on the last year of their contracts (both have player option at the end of the season and will likely opt out to secure more money with the new CBA), so they're essentially playing for a big contract. Doubt either agrees to such a scenario, especially Parsons.

[celticsclay]

I agree with you.

My biggest concern is that the Mavs get off to a rocky start and then use that as an excuse to rest Dirk and allow Parsons and Matthews extended time to "rehab" and "recuperate" from their recent injuries and surgeries.

It makes too much sense for the Mavs to tank and basically do what the Warriors did in order to get Harrison Barnes.  That would be a bummer for us, to say the least.

The problem with that thinking is that both Dirk and Parsons are on the last year of their contracts (both have player option at the end of the season and will likely opt out to secure more money with the new CBA), so they're essentially playing for a big contract. Doubt either agrees to such a scenario, especially Parsons.

It would be really hard for them finish in the bottom 7, not mention they really have to finish bottom 5 to not risk getting the pick bumped to 8.

[hwangjini_1]

it would not overly bother me if the mav's pick rolled over a year or two further away. the celtics currently may have three first round picks next year. it is not as if there is a shortage of picks next year.

if the dallas pick rolls over it is still 1-7 protected through 2020 then unprotected in 2021. i am sure that the dallas pick will come to boston at some time in the near future, maybe in a year when they have only one, such as in 2017.

see:
2016 first round draft pick from Dallas
Dallas' 1st round pick to Boston protected for 1-7 in 2016, 1-7 in 2017, 1-7 in 2018, 1-7 in 2019 and 1-7 in 2020 and unprotected in 2021 [Boston-Dallas, 12/18/2014]

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

[saltlover]

I agree with you.

My biggest concern is that the Mavs get off to a rocky start and then use that as an excuse to rest Dirk and allow Parsons and Matthews extended time to "rehab" and "recuperate" from their recent injuries and surgeries.

It makes too much sense for the Mavs to tank and basically do what the Warriors did in order to get Harrison Barnes.  That would be a bummer for us, to say the least.

That's really just not a realistic concern.  The odds that a relatively old Mavs team could take a year off, finish as a bottom 5 team, and turn it around so much the following year when Dirk is 38 and Paraons is free agent that they finish out of the lottery in the West is pretty low.  That team is lacking a lot -- it's tough to see them making a big leap from this year to the next.  The worst that happens if they don't convey their pick to us this year is that we get a pick in the 8-14 range next year.  And given the amount of picks we have this season, that's arguably the preferable option.

[knuckleballer]

The Mavs are giving us a lottery pick as are the Nets.  Can't wait until college basketball starts.  Can't wait to watch Ben Simmons.

[PhoSita]

The worst that happens if they don't convey their pick to us this year is that we get a pick in the 8-14 range next year.  And given the amount of picks we have this season, that's arguably the preferable option.

I'd much rather get the pick in the 8-12 range this year.  I don't think the Mavs will be really good anytime soon, but Cuban will continue to try to make them decent so long as Dirk is playing, especially if he doesn't get screwed over by a seven foot child in free agency again.

I think it's much more likely to be top 10 this year than it would be next year.  So yeah, I'm concerned the Mavs will make a point of ending up with a top 7 pick.

[PhoSita]

it would not overly bother me if the mav's pick rolled over a year or two further away. the celtics currently may have three first round picks next year. it is not as if there is a shortage of picks next year.

It's not really so much about there being a shortage of picks, it's more about where those picks will end up. 

The Mavs pick might have the best chance of ending up in the top 10.

[max215]

I agree with you.

My biggest concern is that the Mavs get off to a rocky start and then use that as an excuse to rest Dirk and allow Parsons and Matthews extended time to "rehab" and "recuperate" from their recent injuries and surgeries.

It makes too much sense for the Mavs to tank and basically do what the Warriors did in order to get Harrison Barnes.  That would be a bummer for us, to say the least.

Completely agree with this.

[Rick Robeys Return]

I agree with you.

My biggest concern is that the Mavs get off to a rocky start and then use that as an excuse to rest Dirk and allow Parsons and Matthews extended time to "rehab" and "recuperate" from their recent injuries and surgeries.

It makes too much sense for the Mavs to tank and basically do what the Warriors did in order to get Harrison Barnes.  That would be a bummer for us, to say the least.

The problem with that thinking is that both Dirk and Parsons are on the last year of their contracts (both have player option at the end of the season and will likely opt out to secure more money with the new CBA), so they're essentially playing for a big contract. Doubt either agrees to such a scenario, especially Parsons.

I've wondered for awhile if - given the dynamics mentioned - there wasnt a scenario in which dallas and boston agreed to a trade in which the principles are Parsons to boston and the dallas pick back to dallas.....There is a logic there, depends on how Danny assesses Parsons and values having his Bird rights....

[saltlover]

I agree with you.

My biggest concern is that the Mavs get off to a rocky start and then use that as an excuse to rest Dirk and allow Parsons and Matthews extended time to "rehab" and "recuperate" from their recent injuries and surgeries.

It makes too much sense for the Mavs to tank and basically do what the Warriors did in order to get Harrison Barnes.  That would be a bummer for us, to say the least.

The problem with that thinking is that both Dirk and Parsons are on the last year of their contracts (both have player option at the end of the season and will likely opt out to secure more money with the new CBA), so they're essentially playing for a big contract. Doubt either agrees to such a scenario, especially Parsons.

I've wondered for awhile if - given the dynamics mentioned - there wasnt a scenario in which dallas and boston agreed to a trade in which the principles are Parsons to boston and the dallas pick back to dallas.....There is a logic there, depends on how Danny assesses Parsons and values having his Bird rights....

Given that Parsons is a free agent in a year when at least 25 teams will have max cap room, and he's already jumped from a team in free agency once before, I'd hope those Bird rights are valued near zero.

[marlon.oddo]

I think I agree with what many of the posts said.  The Mavs look to be terrible this year.  Cuban already said if they didn't sign Jordan, they were going to tank.

I really feel bad for Dirk.  The team let him down after the championship year.  If I were him, I would retire (or force a trade to contender if I really wanted to keep playing).

Mark Cuban is one of the best owners in sports, for a lot of reasons, but I think he messed up after the championship season.  He made a financial analysis of the new CBA, but I think it's a fact that when a team is a championship contender, you have to keep the pieces together as long as possible.  You never know when you will get back and I'm not sure if the Mavs made it out of the first round since the championship.  They did have something like 12 straight years in the playoffs.

[KG Living Legend]

 Any team with a healthy

 Dirk Nowitzki
 Chandler Parsons
 Wesley Matthews
 Deron WIlliams

 Is not finishing bottom seven in the west. Now if they have serious injuries that changes.
 Dirk is not tanking.