Ford's "way too early" 2016 mock draft

[Eddie20]

A mock draft in August?

There's a reason it's called the Way Too Early Mock Draft.

I know, it seems a bit absurd to try to project players to teams when neither side has played a game this season, but it's never too early to start talking draft for NBA executives, scouts and fans of obvious lottery teams. In fact, NBA scouts have already been out in full force this summer at various camps and international tournaments getting a gauge on the 2016 class. And thanks to our ESPN panel of Summer Forecast voters, we have a first glimpse at what the order might look like on draft night in June.

Remember, in a mock draft we don't tell you where a player should go, but rather what each team in the draft would likely do with its pick. If you want a ranking of players, check out our first Big Board of the year. At this point, this is purely a guessing game. Most teams don't figure out whom they'll pick until draft night, let alone in August. So expect this mock draft to fluctuate greatly over the course of the next 10 months.

Nevertheless, it's time for our first full mock draft of 2016. It's our best stab at a full first-round mock draft -- assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state his intentions on the draft declares -- after taking into account team needs.

So, without further ado, I present Mock Draft 1.0: Summer Forecast edition.

Note: Traded picks include explanations at the bottom.

1
Ben Simmons
Philadelphia 76ers (18 - 64)
COLLEGE: LSU
HT: 6-10
WT: 239
POS: SF

The ESPN forecast has predicted the Sixers would finish with the worst record in the league for the past two years. In 2014, they finished second to last. In 2015, they were third to last. Third time's the charm?

The Sixers have two potentially dominant big men in Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel and possibly a third in Joel Embiid if he ever gets healthy -- but they still need plenty of help in the backcourt and on the wing. Simmons is really a positionless player. He's 6-10, 240, and plays like a point guard. The comparisons to a young LeBron James or Magic Johnson show how highly regarded he is by scouts. Simmons, as a versatile playmaker, could be a great fit in Philly. In fact, he has more upside and potential than any of the four lottery picks the Sixers have selected in the past three drafts. So tank away, Sixers. Maybe 2016 will be your year.

Odds of winning lottery: 25 percent
PLAYER CARD
2
Skal Labissiere
Minnesota Timberwolves (16 - 66)
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 7-0
WT: 216
POS: C

The Timberwolves have the past three No. 1 picks on their roster at the moment -- Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Is it possible they could end up adding a fourth? I'm not as down on their chances this season as our panel. While I don't think they'll be a playoff team, I also don't think they'll finish with the worst record in the West. The team is just loaded with talent. There are no obvious needs in Minnesota with the exception of shooting, so I think the Timberwolves take the best player available. Labissiere has size, athleticism and a game that allows him to play both in the paint and on the perimeter. He looked great at the Nike Hoop Summit and John Calipari knows how to get the best out of his players. If anyone challenges Simmons for the No. 1 pick, it will be Labissiere. He and Towns would create an imposing front line in Minnesota if the Wolves land him at No. 2.

Odds of winning lottery: 19.9 percent
PLAYER CARD
3
Jaylen Brown
Denver Nuggets (30 - 52)
COLLEGE: California
HT: 6-7
WT: 221
POS: SF

(via Knicks) | Sorry, Knicks fans. As part of the Carmelo Anthony trade, the Knicks gave the Nuggets the right to swap picks in the 2016 draft. Our panel had the Knicks finishing with the third-worst record in the league, and despite the obvious upgrades in free agency and the draft this summer, the Knicks landing this high in the lottery doesn't feel far-fetched. The Nuggets got their point guard of the future this summer with Emmanuel Mudiay. Brown would give them an uberathletic wing who can score in multiple ways. He'd be the perfect running mate for Mudiay and would certainly help jump-start the rebuilding process in Denver.

Odds of winning lottery: 15.6 percent
PLAYER CARD
4
Jamal Murray
Philadelphia 76ers (18 - 64)
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 6-5
WT: 204
POS: PG

(via Lakers) | That trade for Steve Nash several years ago is still hurting the franchise. If the Lakers finish in the top three of the lottery, they keep their pick, but fall to fourth or lower, and it's headed to Philadelphia. If the Lakers finish with the fourth-worst record, there's a 62.2 percent chance they'll give up the pick. If the Sixers get this, then you can expect them to fill another major gap at point guard. Murray might not be the most explosive athlete, but he's big, poised beyond his years and shows a terrific balance between scoring and getting others involved. He's a big-time talent, and with the addition of Murray and Simmons to a core of Noel, Okafor and possibly Embiid, Dario Saric and Nik Stauskas, the Sixers could become a very dangerous team in a couple of years.

If the Lakers land in the top three? Simmons, Labissiere and Brown all fit major needs for them.

Odds of winning lottery: 11.9 percent
PLAYER CARD
5
Dragan Bender
Toronto Raptors (49 - 33)
COLLEGE: Croatia
HT: 6-11
WT: 211
POS: SF

(via Nuggets) | This is where things get a little more complicated. The Nuggets are predicted by our panel to finish fifth. However, Denver owns the right to swap picks with the Knicks. The Raptors, in turn, get whatever pick is left for the Knicks as part of the Andrea Bargnani trade a few years ago. Swapping picks with the Nuggets for Anthony is tolerable, but losing a top-five pick because of Bargnani is devastating. The Raptors will happily clean up. There are several forward options here for them to consider, but general manager Masai Ujiri is never afraid to go international and Bender, as a skilled 7-footer who can play either forward position, might be too tempting to pass up.

Odds of winning lottery: 8.8 percent
PLAYER CARD
6
Brandon Ingram
Orlando Magic (25 - 57)
COLLEGE: Duke
HT: 6-10
WT: 196
POS: SF

The Magic should be getting better. Every year they add more lottery talent to their roster and this summer was no exception. Mario Hezonja has rookie of the year talent. Last year's No. 4 pick, Aaron Gordon, looked awesome in the Summer League, and Elfrid Payton has elite talent at the point. Add in Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris and they should be more competitive. But the East is getting better as a whole, and while the record might improve, it might not move Orlando that much closer to the playoffs. If the Magic finish sixth, they'll be looking for a rim protector. I don't really see one at this point in the draft, though. If Ingram is on the board, he'll be hard to pass on. He's not necessarily a need, but when you find a 6-10 small forward with a 7-3 wingspan who can shoot and run the floor, you don't draft for need.

Odds of winning lottery: 6.3 percent
PLAYER CARD
7
Malik Pope
Boston Celtics (40 - 42)
COLLEGE: San Diego State
HT: 6-10
WT: 205
POS: SF

(via Nets) | The Nets sent this pick to the Celtics as part of the Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce trade. Both KG and Pierce are gone and the Nets' fortunes are fleeting at the moment, making that Celtics trade look better and better by the day. In fact, both Kevin Pelton and I believe that the panel overstated the Nets' record. If this pick falls to third or fourth, I wouldn't be shocked. The question is whether it will be high enough for the Celtics to finally land a superstar. Pope has that sort of talent and the Celtics were one of the first teams to get on him early. He's got the right size, athleticism and skill set for his position to be a star. He just needs to get stronger, stay healthy and put in a big season at San Diego State. If he breaks out, we might have him too low.

Odds of winning lottery: 4.3 percent
PLAYER CARD
8
Malik Newman
Sacramento Kings (29 - 53)
COLLEGE: Mississippi St.
HT: 6-4
WT: 180
POS: SG

Every season the Kings end up finishing somewhere right around here -- bad enough to get a real sniff at the lottery, but not bad enough to land a franchise-changing player. While our panel does think they'll be better, better won't be good enough to make the playoffs. The somewhat good news is that if this picks falls between 11 and 30, they have to send it to the Timberwolves. The Kings did add Rajon Rondo to the roster, but I don't think there are many who feel he's the long-term answer in Sacramento. Newman isn't a pure point guard. He's more of a hybrid guard who excels at creating his own shot off the dribble. But in the modern NBA, players such as Newman convert all the time and his high basketball IQ, shooting ability and character should all be attractive to the Kings. Also, he's going to put up a lot of points.

Odds of winning lottery: 2.8 percent
PLAYER CARD
9
Henry Ellenson
Portland Trail Blazers (51 - 31)
COLLEGE: Marquette
HT: 6-10
WT: 228
POS: C

The Blazers ended up gutting the team this summer after it became clear LaMarcus Aldridge wasn't returning. The loss of Aldridge, along with Nic Batum and Wesley Matthews, caused our panel to knock 20 wins off of last season's win total and throw Portland into the lottery. The Blazers added Ed Davis and Noah Vonleh at the 4 this summer, but they could still use another talented big man on the roster. Ellenson has drawn some comps to a young Kevin Love. He's a good athlete, can play the 4 and the 5 and can really stretch the floor.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.7 percent
PLAYER CARD
10
Cheick Diallo
Phoenix Suns (39 - 43)
COLLEGE: Kansas
HT: 6-9
WT: 220
POS: PF

Phoenix flew too close to the postseason sun two years ago and it blinded them from what they ought to have been doing: rebuilding. Instead, they've spent the past few years in limbo as a not-quite-good-enough Western Conference team. Their one chance to land a high pick -- via the Lakers -- was squandered when they traded it away for Brandon Knight at the deadline, and now they're projected to pick at a spot in the draft from which few players turn into stars. Diallo might not ever be a superstar, but he's going to have a long career in the league with his terrific blend of athleticism and motor. No one in college basketball will play harder than Diallo. Given the problems the Suns are currently having with Markieff Morris, that sort of positive energy should be welcome in Phoenix.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent
PLAYER CARD
11
Jakob Poeltl
Detroit Pistons (32 - 50)
COLLEGE: Utah
HT: 7-0
WT: 230
POS: C

The Pistons' biggest need probably lies at power forward, but the draft isn't particularly strong at the position� after Diallo goes off the board. Although� Andre Drummond has the center position locked down, you can never have enough size. Poeltl is a good athlete, a very good rebounder, and with added strength, could turn into an Omer Asik-type big man.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent
PLAYER CARD
12
Furkan Korkmaz
Charlotte Hornets (33 - 49)
COLLEGE: Turkey
HT: 6-6
WT: 200
POS: SG

The Hornets, despite numerous changes this summer, still need help in the backcourt. Neither Jeremy Lamb nor P.J. Hairston looks like the long-term answer at shooting guard and while both Nic Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can play the position, it's not the ideal spot. They also need shooting and Korkmaz just finished the under-19 championships shooting 45 percent from deep this summer. He's got the right size, is a terrific athlete and he's aggressive. I think he's somewhat of a sleeper in this draft.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent
PLAYER CARD
13
Kris Dunn
Indiana Pacers (38 - 44)
COLLEGE: Providence
HT: 6-3
WT: 180
POS: PG

The Pacers have several combo guards --� George Hill, Rodney Stuckey and Joseph Young -- to run the point. But they've lacked a pure point guard for a while and Dunn seems like an obvious long-term fit. He's a terrific passer who also can break down the defense off the dribble and his ability to dominate the pick-and-roll makes him a very attractive prospect. even though he can be turnover-prone. If he were two years younger, he'd be five to 10 spots higher on this mock.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent
PLAYER CARD
14
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
Utah Jazz (38 - 44)
COLLEGE: Kansas
HT: 6-6
WT: 195
POS: SG

Mykhailiuk was the youngest player in college basketball last season. His numbers at Kansas didn't wow anyone, but those in the program who regularly watched him in practice say great things are coming this season. He's got a high basketball IQ, athleticism and can really stroke the basketball (despite shooting 29 percent from 3 as a freshman on a pretty limited sample size). Shooting remains one of the few needs the Jazz have left. He could be a great fit coming off the bench behind Alec Burks.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent
PLAYER CARD
15
Ivan Rabb
Boston Celtics (40 - 42)
COLLEGE: California
HT: 6-10
WT: 215
POS: PF

Rabb was one of the top-rated high school players in the country. His draft stock slipped a bit during the Nike Hoop Summit after he struggled to keep up with the physicality of the other elite players and looked very limited offensively. However, his body underwent an amazing transformation over the summer. He's put on 20 pounds and suddenly looks much more like a potential NBA player. He's a very good athlete and defender. If he can show some semblance of an offensive game at Cal, I wouldn't be surprised to see Danny Ainge roll the dice. The Celtics need athleticism in the paint and Rabb has enormous potential.
PLAYER CARD
16
Zhou Qi
Boston Celtics (40 - 42)
COLLEGE: China
HT: 7-2
WT: 209
POS: PF

(via Mavericks) | This pick is the Mavericks' penance for the Rondo trade last season. The Celtics get it if it falls between 8 and 30, which is a highly probable outcome. With Pope and Rabb in the fold, the Celtics can afford to take a risk here and grab Qi. He's got elite size, is a terrific shot-blocker and defender, is very skilled offensively and is putting up impressive numbers in China. He's painfully thin, but with two rookies already on the roster, the Celtics can afford to leave him in China and let him develop. There's a lot of upside there.
PLAYER CARD
17
Stephen Zimmerman
Milwaukee Bucks (41 - 41)
COLLEGE: UNLV
HT: 7-0
WT: 234
POS: C

The Bucks landed a major free-agent coup this summer in Greg Monroe, but they still are pretty thin in the middle behind him. The Bucks could go a couple of directions here, but Zimmerman offers the most upside. He's mobile, athletic and very skilled. He'd be good gamble here for the Bucks, who really just need a big man who can play 10 to 15 minutes a night behind Monroe.
PLAYER CARD
18
Domantas Sabonis
Toronto Raptors (49 - 33)
COLLEGE: Gonzaga
HT: 6-10
WT: 230
POS: PF

I think scouts might have Sabonis a bit underrated. His lack of elite athleticism limits his ceiling somewhat, but he's one of the most skilled -- if not the most skilled -- big men in the draft behind Simmons. He was very productive coming off the bench for Gonzaga last season and has the sort of toughness and basketball IQ that Ujiri loves. He'd be another great fit in Toronto, where you could imagine an eventual all-international front line of Jonas Valanciunas, Sabonis and Bender.
PLAYER CARD
19
Diamond Stone
Washington Wizards (46 - 36)
COLLEGE: Maryland
HT: 7-0
WT: 250
POS: C

Stone is an old-school big man in the mold of a young Al Jefferson. He's not a great athlete, but he knows how to carve out space and to score in the post. He's not the rim protector or mobile big man that the NBA covets these days, but few players at his age have his scoring instincts or touch. NBA scouts love him. He'd have been a lock as a top-10 pick in the previous decade, but where does he fit now? He could end up much higher on draft night (several teams have him in their top 10) but if he slides a bit because of his weaknesses, given an aging front line in Washington that lacks depth, he should be a nice long-term fit with the Wizards.
PLAYER CARD
20
Grayson Allen
Philadelphia 76ers (18 - 64)
COLLEGE: Duke
HT: 6-6
WT: 195
POS: SG

(via Heat) | The Heat are still paying for LeBron. This pick went to Cleveland as part of the original sign-and-trade for James and the Cavaliers later sent it to Philly in the three-way deal that landed Love. Allen was a darling of the NCAA tournament and it will be interesting to see what role he'll play at Duke this season. Blessed with elite athleticism, a terrific jump shot and a super-aggressive attitude, he could be in store for a breakout year as a sophomore. The Sixers still need lots of perimeter help and his combination of shooting and athleticism would be very welcome there.
PLAYER CARD
21
Caris LeVert
New Orleans Pelicans (45 - 37)
COLLEGE: Michigan
HT: 6-6
WT: 185
POS: SF

LeVert is our first and only senior on the board in the first round. He would've been a mid-to-late first-round pick in the past draft had he not suffered a broken foot in January. He's a very skilled wing who can shoot, pass the ball and defend multiple positions. After showing a major improvement his sophomore year, he's leveled off a bit as a junior. But teams still see upside there (he just turned 21). The Pelicans could use his shooting and playmaking ability from the wing. Small forward might be the weakest position on the team for them.
PLAYER CARD
22
Damian Jones
Atlanta Hawks (60 - 22)
COLLEGE: Vanderbilt
HT: 6-10
WT: 235
POS: C

Jones has been a tease his first two seasons at Vanderbilt, but impressed folks this summer at the Nike Skills Academy. He's got size for the position, is a solid rebounder and shot-blocker and has an emerging low-post game. The Hawks should be looking only for some depth at the 5 behind Tiago Splitter, and Jones is a good value here.
PLAYER CARD
23
Demetrius Jackson
Chicago Bulls (50 - 32)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
HT: 6-1
WT: 195
POS: PG

The Bulls have an aging Kirk Hinrich and an undersized Aaron Brooks backing up Derrick Rose. Given Rose's injury history, that isn't ideal. Jackson would be a great fit in Chicago. He's a bulldog of a point guard, blessed with great athleticism, an NBA body and the ability to both see the floor and get to the rim.
PLAYER CARD
24
Nigel Hayes
Memphis Grizzlies (55 - 27)
COLLEGE: Wisconsin
HT: 6-7
WT: 250
POS: PF

The Grizzlies have to send this pick on to the Nuggets if it falls in the lottery, but that seems very unlikely given the talent on this team. Scouts are all over the place on Hayes. He started to emerge as a possible small forward with his shooting ability last season, but most teams see him as an undersized 4. His huge wingspan makes up for some of that and he has a very high basketball IQ.
PLAYER CARD
25
Justin Jackson
Philadelphia 76ers (18 - 64)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
HT: 6-8
WT: 200
POS: SF

(via Thunder) | This would be the fourth first-round pick for Philly. The 76ers received this pick from Denver as part of the JaVale McGee pickup at the trade deadline. They also own the ability to swap this pick for the Warriors' pick if the Warriors somehow finish with a worse record than the Thunder. Would the Sixers really need a fourth player from this draft? Probably not. You can expect Sam Hinkie to try to combine a few of these picks to get another high draft choice or a future first. But if they do select here, they clearly need the talent. Jackson, as a sweet-shooting wing, gives them depth in an area of need.
PLAYER CARD
26
Isaiah Briscoe
Los Angeles Clippers (56 - 26)
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 6-4
WT: 217
POS: PG

When Austin Rivers is No. 2 on the depth chart at point guard behind Chris Paul, you can always use help. Briscoe has the sort of talent that could land him five to 10 spots higher were it not for the fact that Kentucky has two other point guards -- Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis� -- already in the backcourt. Briscoe is freakishly strong and has the sort of body that will allow him to play in the NBA right away. He just needs to improve his jump shot and prove to scouts he's a point guard despite the fact that he's unlikely to see much time there this season.
PLAYER CARD
27
Chinanu Onuaku
Denver Nuggets (30 - 52)
COLLEGE: Louisville
HT: 6-10
WT: 230
POS: C

(via Rockets) | The Nuggets get this pick as part of the Ty Lawson trade this summer. Onuaku was a bit of surprise for Louisville last summer. His numbers won't wow you, but the advanced analytics loved him and his play for Team USA in the U19s this summer won him even more fans. He's very limited offensively, but defensively there is a lot to love as an athletic, high-energy big man coming off the bench.
PLAYER CARD
28
Jalen Brunson
San Antonio Spurs (55 - 27)
COLLEGE: Villanova
HT: 6-2
WT: 200
POS: PG

Brunson might be the steadiest freshman point guard in the country. There's not a lot of flash to his game, but few players his age see and feel the game the way he does. He feels like a perfect Spur.
PLAYER CARD
29
Tyler Dorsey
Phoenix Suns (39 - 43)
COLLEGE: Oregon
HT: 6-4
WT: 180
POS: PG

(via Cavaliers) | Dorsey impressed scouts this summer with his play for the Greek U19 team. He has size, athleticism and a great motor. He's just a bit of a tweener -- a quality the Suns apparently love in their point guards.
PLAYER CARD
30
Egemen Guven
Golden State Warriors (67 - 15)
COLLEGE: Turkey
HT: 6-9
WT: 210
POS: PF

Guven didn't dominate this summer the way he did last year, but he's still a very intriguing prospect for NBA scouts. He's skilled, has great footwork, can score in a variety of ways and he's a good rebounder. He's a nice draft-and-stash prospect for a team that's already very loaded.
PLAYER CARD

[max215]

Can't wait! And this draft is absolutely LOADED at SF, our biggest position of need.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I hope Brandon Ingram is still ranked sixth on draft night. He has the most potential/ceiling out of anyone in the top of the draft, IMO. He can guard 1-4 and some 5's (in college) because of his length but he is a year younger than almost all freshman and really skinny. He is very lean but his weight will be something many people will be keeping an eye on.

I can only hope the Celtics not only do not make the playoffs but have under 25 wins. Hey thats just me and my plan to get us back to championship favorites for many years. And I will say that if we do get under 25 wins it will be because of trades specifically trades for 2017/18 unprotected picks and prospects.

Also do not be surprised to see Thomas Bryant come out of nowhere. He is not ranked but I think he will be.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Pope breaks his leg every other year. Hasn't played a game since 7th grade.

[chambers]

I would love Ingram. If Pope was available at #8 or #9 we'd have to think long and hard. I worry about his legs though. He broke the same leg doing the same movement.
The only reason he stayed in college is because he couldn't play the end of his Junior and entire senior seasons in high school because of his broken legs.

He does have upper echelon All Star potential though so if he's there between 8-12 we probably have to roll the dice.

[slamtheking]

have to say, if this is how it actually played out I'd be:
A) stunned both the C's and Mavs made the playoffs since I see them both the lottery.
B) stunned Minny had the second worst record with that talent.  I think they'll be closer to the playoffs than the Mavs.
C) stunned the Nets ended up as high as the 7th pick.
D) depressed beyond believe if we have 3 firsts in this draft and that's the best we can do.

[PhoSita]

Would be happy to get a top 10 pick. I hope if we end up with two picks in the middle of the first Danny can find a way to consolidate them.  Then again, we might lose most of our front court to free agency next summer, so having it replenished with first round talent might be a good thing.

[Irish Stew]

It would be depressing if we have another NFL type draft and bring in a boatload of kids again. Hopefully, we can move most of these picks for a star or potential star. I also find it interesting that Philly may have 2 of the top 4 picks. They can bring in two more centers.

[krumeto]

It would be depressing if we have another NFL type draft and bring in a boatload of kids again. Hopefully, we can move most of these picks for a star or potential star. I also find it interesting that Philly may have 2 of the top 4 picks. They can bring in two more centers.

Wait for the additional what? 4-5 2nd round picks we have, including (if the teams indeed finish as projected) picks 31 (via Philly) and 32 (via Twolves) + Miami, Dallas and Cleveland's. That's 7-8 picks total. I really hope we have good international scouts. We would need to stash at least some guys.

[krumeto]

Just for information, the Draftexpress projections for the picks (team needs not accounted for) are:

7. Malik Newman (SG)
15. Cheick Diallo (PF/C)
16. Damian Jones (PF/C)

31. Timothe Luwawu (SG/SF)
32. Aleksandar Vezenkov (Barcelona, SF/PF)
+ I-don't-know-how-many more 2nd rounders

[Eddie20]

Can't wait! And this draft is absolutely LOADED at SF, our biggest position of need.

Yeah, it is. A guy like Nigel Hayes, who is being projected as a late 1st, would be a great addition to our team.

I think this class is being underrated right now, but should begin to get more buzz as the season goes on.

[konkmv]

Nets 1-5 range
Mavs 9-14 range
Wolves 8-13 range
Celtics 13-18 range
Interesting

[makaveli]

the nets will be the 1st to 4th worst team in the league this year, and that is with this team. my prediction is that Joe and Lopez are gone by the ASB, if not injured.

[PhoSita]

did i get this right, this guy is predicting the nets to have a 40-42 record?
if the nets have a 40-42 record, we should have 60-22

No, he's predicting the Nets to have between 25 and 29 wins.

[Future Celtics Owner]

And there is usually a player that is not on the list that makes a leap.

I would love Ingram. He can be a great 2 way player, and can play and defend multiple positions.