I really don't get the love for the Heat. They were mediocre when healthy. Their record when Bosh was diagnosed with his blood clot was 23-30... He played most of the season prior to that. Yes, they added Dragic, but a mostly-healthy Heat team without Dragic was a 35-win team. The idea that the upgrade from Chalmers to Dragic is worth 10-15 wins is pretty laughable to me. They're a year older, their bench is D-league dreck, and their backups would not get minutes on the Celtics. If their starting 5 can play 30 minutes a game for 75 games, sure, they can be a good team. But that's not happening. I think it's more likely they don't crack 40 wins than they are able to get up to 50.
I am not sold on Miami's starting lineup.
(a) Whiteside is still a huge question mark. JaVale McGee-ish at times last season. Great (per minute) stats but often not having much of an impact on games.
(b) I think Bosh will have a large drop-off moving back to PF full time, sharing the ball with Dragic and Wade & because the perimeter players don't space the floor well enough so he'll have to spend an unhelpful amount of time out on the perimeter to open the offense for others. I don't think playing PF full time will be good for Bosh's health either (more stress on his knees).
(c) Dragic and Wade struggled a bit last season. They played better when roster was threadbare and they were allowed to dominate the ball. With a fully healthy roster and having to be more unselfish, I think both guys got a fair bit to prove that they can both function at a high level together. Probably diminished returns here as well.
(d) Offensive spacing. Whiteside scores mostly around the basket. Wade and Deng combine to make one of the least effective outside shooting wing combinations in the league. Lot of pressure on Dragic and Bosh to create effective spacing.
(e) Plus the whole Wade missing 20+ games a season. Bosh's health a concern still too.
I do like their bench though. I think that should be a strength for them.