Author Topic: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction  (Read 12302 times)

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Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #45 on: August 18, 2015, 01:05:10 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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I think the Celtics have a shot at the ECF.

The difference between the 2nd-4th seeds in the East and the 5th-8th seeds is pretty small. Any one of those 7 teams has a legit shot at making it to the ECF.

There is no legitimate top teams in the East outside of Cleveland. It is open season for anyone to make a long playoff run next season.

Gotta politely disagree on a gut level -- we're not as good as that 2002 squad and the East, while still weak, is probably more competitive overall.

List me what some teams from the east did this offseason.

Did Bulls add anyone? 

Chambers seems to think teams like Pacers are better adding three rookies and PG will be back to his old self. 

Heat will 100 percent healthy and winslow makes a difference

By staying put and adding rookies teams dont become much better than the prior season unless the rookie is Towns , Wiggins etc.

Celts on the other hand filled some crucial holes in the lineup.
and what holes did the C's fill?  Amir and Lee are PFs which we already have.  they'll play some center but they're not really centers.  What SF did we pick up for that gaping hole as a scoring wing?  yup, no one.  What great ballhandling/passing PG did we pick up so we don't have to rely on Smart to continue learning on the job this year and we don't have to worry about using IT who didn't look particularly good under pressure in the playoffs?

C's added 3 rookies and 2 PFs.  none of them are centers or SFs which were our 2 biggest gaping holes.
Other teams adding rookies that drafted before us did pretty well (except Charlotte and even that's debatable if Frank the Tank isn't better than who we picked up). 

so,
Cavs - better than us
Chicago - didn't need to add anyone to stay better than us.  just need to be healthy.
Atlanta - Lost Carroll but are still better than us
Wash - Lost Pierce but are still better than us
Toronto - Added Carroll so improved more than us because he fit an actual need they had
Milwaukee - Added Monroe and get Parker back so they improved much more than we did
Indy - Get PG back, added Ellis and Turner - question is how much does losing West and Hibbert hurt
Detroit - Added Stanley Johnson and lost Monroe.  Johnson looked really good and moving Monroe may be addition by subtraction.
Miami - Added Winslow and, for now, are projecting a full season from Wade and Bosh.  That's pretty significant
Charlotte - shuffled the lockerroom chemistry and added the almighty Frank the Tank.  I don't think it'll pan out for them but we'll have to see.
NY - Added Afflalo and Lopez as well as getting Melo back healthy.  Kyle O'Quinn will surprise.  not insignificant moves. I don't think it's enough to catch the C's for depth reasons but they're better than last season by far.
Orlando - better youth movement than the C's.  Better balance up and down their roster in terms of their prospects.  Payton, Oladipo and Gordan look like they're getting better.  Still have Harris and Vucevic.  Team needs to grow but the roots are there.
Brooklyn - a rapidly declining mess.
Philly - still a dumpster fire.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #46 on: August 18, 2015, 01:09:39 PM »

Offline Who

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making the leap into the upper echelon of the East.

I don't think there is an upper echelon of the East (outside of Cleveland).

Or at least that whatever gap is there between those 2nd-5th seed East teams and 6th-8th seed playoff teams in the East is small enough that those bottom seeds can knock out any of those top teams and make a long playoff run.

I think the East is wide open this year.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #47 on: August 18, 2015, 01:12:30 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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I can sort of be sold on the "it's anybody's conference" idea in the first round (save whoever plays CLE, obviously), but I think that the better teams that survive into the second round will continue without much problem, if that makes any sense (and it may not, it's hot as anything today).

So provided the second seed can beat the 7th seed, I imagine they'll make it to the ECF. If the 7th seed scores a 2nd round upset, I don't think they make it to the ECF. Make sense?
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Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #48 on: August 18, 2015, 01:27:42 PM »

Offline chambers

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Chambers didnt you state last season this team had almost a zero percent chance to make the playoffs?

Again I ask, outside of the Cavs, which teams from the east are considered that much better than the Celts?


Ask me again? I haven't replied to any questions yet and you proceed to post twice in a row within 5 minutes saying 'Ask me again' ? Was it the green glasses comment?

Considering the changes the Celtics underwent, I'm not sure anyone expected them to make the playoffs after Rondo and Green were traded- and yes I do think we were lucky to make the playoffs. I think the East will be much tougher this year and although we've improved with Johnson and Lee, we are going to be fighting to make the playoffs just as hard as last season.

Teams better than us?

The Cavs
The Hawks
Heat
Wizards

Teams that we have to beat for a playoff spot: only 4 of the following teams will make the playoffs...
Bucks
Pistons
Raptors
Hornets
Pacers
Celtics
Knicks

And they are ALL all better than last year.
You're acting like we're a lock to make the playoffs when that's not even guaranteed, and you're questioning the Thunders bench as a reason as to why they have less chance of making the finals than us?

Now I'll ask you again,  because you've ignored my question regarding your statement that the Rockets can't get past the 2nd round (which they already did last year), and that we somehow have a better chance at making the Conference finals than them. How do you compute this logic?

Do you see the issue here?

Rockets  regardless of my error , will never get past the west to the finals or be able to win. Dhoward and harden dont have "it" to get past smarter teams.

As for your east analysis , it is poor.   What did the pacers do exacgly? What did the Heat do?? You think Winslow is going to put them over the top. History indicates Bosh and Wade will be injured half the season. 

Yoh putting the knicks in the same category as the celts is an insult. So what if they got a couple of decent players in Lopez and Afflalo? They havent gelled.  Who is their pg? Unless you think Grant is a legit player already

Like i have stated, celts have nobody to be scared of in the east. We won 40 last season and will beat that record this season.   Our team D was one of the best in the east in the 2nd half in case you forgot

So my analysis of the East is poor, saying that the Pacers will likely fight for a playoff spot and that the Heat will be better than us?

And we come to your analysis of the Rockets saying that Harden and Howard don't have 'it' to get past the 2nd round.
Let's see....
*they had the 2nd best record in the West without Howard for half the season (not including the time it took for him to get into game shape after coming back).
 * even though they made it to the WCF without Howard at 100%, without their starting point guard and after coming back from 3-0 down to beat the Clippers, they don't have 'it'.

I haven't said that the Pacers are better than us, I said they will be fighting us for a playoff spot. George has had the entire off season and they signed Monta Ellis.
The Knicks could potentially make the playoffs especially if Porzingis has a good rookie year- he's already played pro in Europe and it's not beyond any stretch to say he'll be way better than Bargani was last year. They've got Afflalo, Calderon, Seraphin, Derrick Williams, Galloway and Robin Lopez with Carmelo, so no, it's not insulting to put them into the 'fight for the 7th and 8th seed' race with us.
 We had a losing record last year in one of the worst Eastern conferences of all time and we got the 7th seed. You're acting like we're NBA royalty now because we added Amir Johnson and David Lee.

And here's the biggest issue with your Celtics/ECF fantasy, we have to avoid the Cavs in both rounds to get there. If we finish 7th and the Cavs finish 2nd, we have to play them first round. Game over.
If we finish 8th and they finish 1st, we have to play them first round. Game over.

So we've got firstly get into the playoffs, and hopefully avoid the Cavs in the 1st and 2nd round, whilst beating either of the Hawks, Heat, Raptors, Wizards and whoever of the Bucks/Pistons/Bobcats that are likely in the top 8.

But Triboy says the Rockets don't have 'it' to make it to the WCF (again).

I also like how you changed your Rockets conclusion from 'never making it past the 2nd round' to 'never getting out of the West', even though they made the WCF and gave the eventual champions some very close games (with an injured Dwight Howard on one leg).

You are massively overrating our squad and underestimating the rest of the East. You need to watch more playoff basketball- your Rockets/Thunder comments make that clear.

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Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #49 on: August 18, 2015, 01:28:19 PM »

Offline Who

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I was really disappointed in the off-seasons that the top teams in the East had this year.

Atlanta = lost DeMarre Carroll. Korver came back down to Earth as year progressed. Korver will turn 35 next season and I think he will struggle to give Atlanta what they got from him last year. Best acquisition was Tiago Splitter. Failed to address lack of shot-creation and playmaking from the wing positions. Lost best wing defender.

Chicago = still have roster imbalance problems with Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah. Have lots of quality at PF but cannot find enough minutes for everyone. Derrick Rose is a shell of his former self after returning from injury. No starting quality wing player to go alongside Jimmy Butler. Lost Tom Thibodeau who maximized every inch of talent that team had over the last 5 years. One of the best coaches in the league and will be very difficult to replace.

Toronto = The Raptors had a big hole at starting SG/SF last year and fixed that hole with DeMarre Carroll but in doing so created a new hole at starting PF. Just swapped one problem for another. Amir Johnson was a big loss. He was their only above average defensive big. The Raptors also lost Lou Williams and G.Vasquez who were their 2 of their top 3 bench players.

Washington = Wanted to keep cap flexibility for next summer to make a run at Kevin Durant so they were unable to much inroads this off-season. Lost Paul Pierce in the off-season. How much Pierce's loss hurts Washington will depend on the growth (or lack thereof) of Bradley Beal and Otto Porter.

........


I just can't get excited about any of these teams. There was a great opportunity here for every one of those teams to get firm grip on that 2nd best team in the Conference ranking but all 4 of those teams bad to indifferent summers.

I really think the difference between those teams and the likes of Miami, Milwaukee and Boston is small enough that anybody can beat anybody.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #50 on: August 18, 2015, 01:43:19 PM »

Offline Who

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I can sort of be sold on the "it's anybody's conference" idea in the first round (save whoever plays CLE, obviously), but I think that the better teams that survive into the second round will continue without much problem, if that makes any sense (and it may not, it's hot as anything today).

So provided the second seed can beat the 7th seed, I imagine they'll make it to the ECF. If the 7th seed scores a 2nd round upset, I don't think they make it to the ECF. Make sense?

Yes, makes perfect sense. That if the lower seed causes an upset through their strong play they are unlikely to be able to sustain those strong performances through a 2nd series to cause a second upset. 

* That the teams are closely enough matched that anybody can play well enough for 2 weeks and cause an upset in the 1st round.

* But maintaining that quality of performance for a full month -- long enough to win a 2nd round series to get to the ECF -- is a much harder task.

* And lasting through a 3rd round (ECF) is even harder again ... even if there was not a Cleveland team standing in the way (say if LeBron gets injured).

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #51 on: August 18, 2015, 02:57:39 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Ok, just making sure -- it's hard to CB distractedly.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #52 on: August 18, 2015, 03:36:48 PM »

Offline MJohnnyboy

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Cavs over Heat

Thunder over Warriors

Cavs over Thunder

At this point, I can honestly see any of the Thunder, Clippers, Spurs, Rockets, or Warriors making the Finals. I think those are 5 of the 6 best teams in the league to start the season. But I also think the Cavs figured out a lot last year and if they can stay healthy, they're going to be the best team in the NBA.

Add the Grizzlies to that mix. They were giving the Dubs a real scare until TAs and Conleys injuries got in the way. They also got 2 guys that will fit their style and improve them overall as team with Matt Barnes and Brandan Wright.

What did Grizz do this offseason?
Unless Jeff Green goes off, I cant see them going anywhere

I feel like I just said what they did this off-season and why I think they'll be in the mix.

Read it again.

The Grizzlies are still just not good enough at shooting the ball from the outside even with Barnes, IMO.

Well, it depends on Courtney Lee and Jeff Green. Lee was shooting lights out which made the Grizz really lethal early on, then he cooled off in the last few months and the offense suffered because of it. I think Jeff could hypothetically play better than he did because he's in a contract year and he plays a position that is the weakest in the league AND the cap is going to rise so h'es gonna get paid next summer.

They were giving the Warriors a great series until Conley's face injury and TA's hamstring got in the way.

They're not the favorite, but they are in the discussion.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #53 on: August 18, 2015, 03:41:30 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Agreed... but I feel like Celtics fans, more than anyone, should be aware of the problems with suggesting that team pin their hopes on Jeff Green's consistently playing at a higher level night after night.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #54 on: August 18, 2015, 03:50:22 PM »

Offline MJohnnyboy

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Agreed... but I feel like Celtics fans, more than anyone, should be aware of the problems with suggesting that team pin their hopes on Jeff Green's consistently playing at a higher level night after night.

Yeah I know. It's funny being a Jeff Green optimist all these years and seeing him on a different team now. Now that he's on Memphis, I'll never have to try to think positive about him despite his performance ever again.

It feels good to be free.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #55 on: August 18, 2015, 03:56:23 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Yup. I find myself rooting for the Grizzlies even more now that they're accumulating some of my favorite Celtics alumni of recent years (and in TA's case, not so recent).
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #56 on: August 18, 2015, 04:09:24 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I can sort of be sold on the "it's anybody's conference" idea in the first round (save whoever plays CLE, obviously), but I think that the better teams that survive into the second round will continue without much problem, if that makes any sense (and it may not, it's hot as anything today).

So provided the second seed can beat the 7th seed, I imagine they'll make it to the ECF. If the 7th seed scores a 2nd round upset, I don't think they make it to the ECF. Make sense?

Yes, makes perfect sense. That if the lower seed causes an upset through their strong play they are unlikely to be able to sustain those strong performances through a 2nd series to cause a second upset. 

* That the teams are closely enough matched that anybody can play well enough for 2 weeks and cause an upset in the 1st round.

* But maintaining that quality of performance for a full month -- long enough to win a 2nd round series to get to the ECF -- is a much harder task.

* And lasting through a 3rd round (ECF) is even harder again ... even if there was not a Cleveland team standing in the way (say if LeBron gets injured).

Your posts make the most sense to me.

No need to be scared. 

Ppl also shoud give CBS more credit in regards to his ability to bring the shine out of buried players. He did that with Jerebko. Looking fwd to see what he can do with PJ3.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #57 on: August 18, 2015, 04:54:15 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I can sort of be sold on the "it's anybody's conference" idea in the first round (save whoever plays CLE, obviously), but I think that the better teams that survive into the second round will continue without much problem, if that makes any sense (and it may not, it's hot as anything today).

So provided the second seed can beat the 7th seed, I imagine they'll make it to the ECF. If the 7th seed scores a 2nd round upset, I don't think they make it to the ECF. Make sense?

Yes, makes perfect sense. That if the lower seed causes an upset through their strong play they are unlikely to be able to sustain those strong performances through a 2nd series to cause a second upset. 

* That the teams are closely enough matched that anybody can play well enough for 2 weeks and cause an upset in the 1st round.

* But maintaining that quality of performance for a full month -- long enough to win a 2nd round series to get to the ECF -- is a much harder task.

* And lasting through a 3rd round (ECF) is even harder again ... even if there was not a Cleveland team standing in the way (say if LeBron gets injured).
Even if Lebron gets injured I'd still be hard pressed to pick against the Cavs in the East (assuming Irving and Love are both healthy).  I mean Mozgov, Love, Shumpert, Williams, and Irving is probably the best starting 5 in the East (and they still would have Varejao, R. Jefferson, Jones, Delly and presumably Thompson and Smith).

I mean that is how bad the East is that the Cavs could be without the best player in the world and still probably be the favorites to win the conference.
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Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #58 on: August 18, 2015, 05:54:25 PM »

Offline MJohnnyboy

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I think the Celtics have a shot at the ECF.

The difference between the 2nd-4th seeds in the East and the 5th-8th seeds is pretty small. Any one of those 7 teams has a legit shot at making it to the ECF.

There is no legitimate top teams in the East outside of Cleveland. It is open season for anyone to make a long playoff run next season.

Gotta politely disagree on a gut level -- we're not as good as that 2002 squad and the East, while still weak, is probably more competitive overall.

List me what some teams from the east did this offseason.

Did Bulls add anyone? 

Chambers seems to think teams like Pacers are better adding three rookies and PG will be back to his old self. 

Heat will 100 percent healthy and winslow makes a difference

By staying put and adding rookies teams dont become much better than the prior season unless the rookie is Towns , Wiggins etc.

Celts on the other hand filled some crucial holes in the lineup.
and what holes did the C's fill?  Amir and Lee are PFs which we already have.  they'll play some center but they're not really centers.  What SF did we pick up for that gaping hole as a scoring wing?  yup, no one.  What great ballhandling/passing PG did we pick up so we don't have to rely on Smart to continue learning on the job this year and we don't have to worry about using IT who didn't look particularly good under pressure in the playoffs?

C's added 3 rookies and 2 PFs.  none of them are centers or SFs which were our 2 biggest gaping holes.
Other teams adding rookies that drafted before us did pretty well (except Charlotte and even that's debatable if Frank the Tank isn't better than who we picked up). 

so,
Cavs - better than us
Chicago - didn't need to add anyone to stay better than us.  just need to be healthy.
Atlanta - Lost Carroll but are still better than us
Wash - Lost Pierce but are still better than us
Toronto - Added Carroll so improved more than us because he fit an actual need they had
Milwaukee - Added Monroe and get Parker back so they improved much more than we did
Indy - Get PG back, added Ellis and Turner - question is how much does losing West and Hibbert hurt
Detroit - Added Stanley Johnson and lost Monroe.  Johnson looked really good and moving Monroe may be addition by subtraction.
Miami - Added Winslow and, for now, are projecting a full season from Wade and Bosh.  That's pretty significant
Charlotte - shuffled the lockerroom chemistry and added the almighty Frank the Tank.  I don't think it'll pan out for them but we'll have to see.
NY - Added Afflalo and Lopez as well as getting Melo back healthy.  Kyle O'Quinn will surprise.  not insignificant moves. I don't think it's enough to catch the C's for depth reasons but they're better than last season by far.
Orlando - better youth movement than the C's.  Better balance up and down their roster in terms of their prospects.  Payton, Oladipo and Gordan look like they're getting better.  Still have Harris and Vucevic.  Team needs to grow but the roots are there.
Brooklyn - a rapidly declining mess.
Philly - still a dumpster fire.

I think I remember reading in a different thread that advanced metrics prove Amir Johnson is best used as a center. I'll try to bring it up if you want.

Re: What is your early 2015-2016 finals prediction
« Reply #59 on: June 21, 2016, 10:46:38 AM »

Offline Big333223

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Cavs over Heat

Thunder over Warriors

Cavs over Thunder
Not perfect, but not bad, if I say so myself.
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