The Ninth and Tenth Picks

[Celtics18]

I was doing some draft research recently, and I was kind of floored by how successful the 9th and 10th picks in the draft have been over the course of the past twenty years.

Starting in 1993, the 9 and 10 picks have yielded a total of 14 All Stars.  By comparison, the 6th, 7th, and 8th picks combined have produced a total of 8 All Stars. 

There have actually been more All Stars picked at 9 and 10--7 each--than with the 2nd pick, 6.

We aren't talking Jamaal Magloire style All Stars for the most part either.

It's guys like:

Dirk Nowitzki--13 All Star Games, 1 Finals MVP
Paul Pierce--10 All Star Games, 1 Finals MVP
Tracy McGrady--7 All Star Games
Joe Johnson--7 All Star Games
Amare Stoudemire--6 All Star Games
Shawn Marion--4 All Star Games
Eddie Jones--3 All Star Games
Paul George--2 All Star Games
Joakim Noah--2 All Star Games
Caron Butler--2 All Star Games
Andre Iguodala--1 All Star Game, 1 Finals MVP
Demar Derozan--1 All Star Game
Brook Lopez--1 All Star Game
Andrew Bynum--1 All Star Game

Man, that's impressive.

[Roy H.]

Paul Pierce--10 All Star Games, 1 Finals MVP (Celtic)
Tracy McGrady--7 All Star Games (available when Celtics drafted Billups and Mercer)
Joe Johnson--7 All Star Games (Celtic; traded rookie season)
Shawn Marion--4 All Star Games (picked with former Celtics pick)
Eddie Jones--3 All Star Games (available when Celtics drafted Montross)
Joakim Noah--2 All Star Games (available when Celtics drafted Green, who was traded for Ray Allen)

[Boris Badenov]

If you look at the data long enough, you'll see many other similar things. For example, pick #3 has been more valuable than pick #2.

It's a reflection of how much randomness there is in the draft.

If you look at the "Career PER-minutes" figure here you can get a feel for this.

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

[Celtics4ever]

Some of these guys thought they should have went higher and played their whole career with an axe to grind.  That chip on the shoulder really helps motivation.

[PhoSita]

If you look at the data long enough, you'll see many other similar things. For example, pick #3 has been more valuable than pick #2.

It's a reflection of how much randomness there is in the draft.

If you look at the "Career PER-minutes" figure here you can get a feel for this.

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

I wonder if there are certain sweet spots in the draft where the decision-making for teams is . . . I don't know, easier?  Harder to overthink it?

[Boris Badenov]

If you look at the data long enough, you'll see many other similar things. For example, pick #3 has been more valuable than pick #2.

It's a reflection of how much randomness there is in the draft.

If you look at the "Career PER-minutes" figure here you can get a feel for this.

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

I wonder if there are certain sweet spots in the draft where the decision-making for teams is . . . I don't know, easier?  Harder to overthink it?

There's a tradeoff. I would say that it's harder to choose when the talent pool is "flatter" over a wide range of picks. Generally that will be the case later in the draft. (You can see it in that figure I referenced).

On the other side, the importance of choosing wisely is much higher at the top - so those mistakes tend to stand out.

It's also a draft-specific thing. This year for example there seemed to be a pretty flat group in the 5-10 range and then a dropoff.

[chambers]

I wonder if Justise Winslow will make that list one day. We'll be hating the Hornets forever.

[SHAQATTACK]

Frank becomes the next Larry Bird

Winslow the next MJ....

[Celtics4ever]

I wonder if Justise Winslow will make that list one day. We'll be hating the Hornets forever.

i didn't see that chip on his shoulder this summer, but to be fair, he was hurt.

[loco_91]

I wonder if Justise Winslow will make that list one day. We'll be hating the Hornets forever.

I don't doubt that he will. And I also wouldn't be surprised if Kaminsky makes an all star game or two, but Winslow is the guy who has potential to be a perennial allstar.

[Celtics18]

Another strange draft twist:

The 12th through 16th picks have yielded 4 All Stars over the same time period.

The 17th through 21st picks have yielded 13.

[max215]

It's weird how bad the #2 Pick usually is. My guess would be that #2 is where the most teams over think it and draft for need over pure talent. Usually, there's a clear #1 Pick,  but #2 is where the decision becomes less clear. I mean look at this year for example, KAT was the clear #1 Pick, then LA had a choice to make between Okafor and Russell.

[perks-a-beast]

Thats good for us considering thats likely where the Nets pick will land next year.

[PhoSita]

I wonder if outside of certain ranges, teams stop trying to look for home run picks and fall back on the most obvious choice among the next "tier" of draftees, yielding better bulk results over time.

That might explain the better overall results in the 7-10 range and the 16-20 range.

Or it might all just be small sample size theater.

[Celtics18]

Another interesting one:

Since 1993, the 8th pick has yielded one All Star (he's currently serving coffee at the Starbucks on the way to the beach).

The 30th pick has yielded 3x as many All Stars in that time.