I'm not saying this will happen, or that it's likely to happen, but it's not implausible:
- The Celts extend Tyler Zeller for 5 years / $50 million.
- Danny opts not to make a significant trade during the regular season, preferring to preserve cap flexibility.
- The team ends up with one pick in the back half of the top 10 and two picks in the middle of the 1st round.
- The team trades one, two, or all three of Isaiah Thomas, Kelly Olynyk and Avery Bradley along with one or two picks to move up in the draft. The team drafts three or more players who all stand to vie for playing time at the 3, 4, and 5.
- David Lee, Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, and Evan Turner all leave in free agency next summer.
- After a fairly strong season that nonetheless leaves significant concerns about his future, Jared Sullinger gets an offer in excess of $58 million from another team. The Celts choose not to match.
With all that, the team a year from now could be comprised of:
Smart
Crowder
Rozier
Hunter
Young
Mickey
Zeller
Rookie #1
Rookie #2
Rookie #3
Throw in a couple of short-term make-good deals like what the Celts gave to Jerebko and Amir Johnson this summer. Example -- Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert.
It's not so crazy to think the team could be pretty bad in the following season, even though things would look pretty bright for the future if they're developing Smart, Hunter, Young, and Mickey, while integrating a couple of top 10 picks from the 2016 draft.
This type of scenario is actually a silver lining for me. No matter how much the Celts seem to be invested in trying to be a respectable middle of the road team this season, the potential is still there to take a step back next summer and focus on developing young talent, provided they get some luck with the Nets and Mavs pick and perhaps find a trade partner higher in the lottery.
yep this is the crux of what I've been saying.
With all these picks and young guys at some point after Durant has made his decision clear, then we'll have a very plausible option of waiving the white towel.
Durant coming over to the Eastern Conference would give us more of a reason to go into heavy development mode.
Getting past Washington with Durant, Cleveland with Lebron and teams like the 76ers, Magic, Knicks with Carmelo and Porzingris (assuming he gets better) will make the East a playoff fodder nightmare for us.
I think missing out on Winslow this year may be a key factor in us taking this route. He was a potential franchise guy within our range and we lucked out. Now the Heat have Dragic, Winslow, Whiteside which is another young trio we'd have to get past in the playoffs.
I'd actually prefer to avoid getting the Amir+Jerebko 2.0 contracts and just letting Coach Brad try and tame some top 10 lottery talent.
Brandon Ingram, Malik Pope?
Chad Ford says we've been all over Malik Pope since his high school days.
Having our own top 10 picks+Brooklyn's top 10 picks would be a great way to gamble on some draft talent for 2-3 seasons.
I like Winslow as a player and would've been happy to get him, but lamenting over the playoff run for his sake is awful premature. Besides, no one ever thought our team was sniffing the playoffs after the Rondo/Green trades. It's not like Ainge didn't try for a higher draft pick. The only way we were getting Winslow or someone like him would be by purposely losing games. That's not worth upsetting Stevens.
Plus, do you really think teams like the Knicks or 76ers are gonna make it hard for us to make the playoffs in the next 2-3 years? Anything is possible I guess, but Philly isn't going to be competing for a playoff spot for at least that long. They don't have anywhere near enough talent to make a playoff push. I really like Noel for what he is, I think Okafor has star potential, but one good role player and a developing potential star on a team of D-leaguers plus a couple more rookies isn't enough to get them to the playoffs.
Regardless, the thing I think is totally overlooked when people talk about our current rebuild is the flexibility Ainge has managed to accrue. Basketball is a funny sport. Crazy things happen all the time. If your not a contender, being able to pursue any and all paths to contendership is a smart play. We have the cap space to pursue FA's and a team/coach they might actually consider going to, we have trade assets out the wazoo and draft assets that look like we might be able to get a few lottery picks while playing in the playoffs. That flexibility is a huge asset. Part of the reason is because, should things not go well for us this year, we have the ability to go for a total youth movement and add a few lottery picks to our young core.
I think it would take a certain set of circumstances to see it happen (We fall out of the playoff picture, young guys regress, we get trades that are too good to pass up, etc.) but I think it's totally possible. I like our chances this year and I think this team could even win 50 games if all goes right. But if that doesn't work out, which could totally happen, I can see us going right back into development mode. I'm glad we have that flexibility. If we end up in the lottery and those Brooklyn and Dallas picks fall our way we could add three top 15 talents to our already fairly large core. That's a great option to have.
I'm not saying we should have lost games, I'm just saying that because we didn't capitalize on Winslow (and Charlotte were too desperate to win now) that it could shape our future in the next few years differently. If these Brooklyn picks don't pan out in the top 10, then we are left with a roster of young guys and role players- good enough to make the playoffs in a terrible East, but not good enough to ever be a championship contender without binking multiple major free agents or angry players like Cousins.
If it gets to that point, I think Ainge will strongly consider just wiping the slate and starting over with no one over 25 years old or similar.
Your point about Philly cuts two ways. They may not be a problem for us in the next 2-3 years, but how are we supposed to get good enough to beat the Cavs? How about 5 years from now while we try and string together a 4th or 5th seed caliber team in the East and Philly actually develops a better team while we wait around?
I think our front office, coaching staff and environment would be perfect for a ground up rebuild. We aren't the Kings. We aren't the Bobcats.
God if we could put the Kings roster in Celtics uniforms with Danny and Brad at the helm? Wow.
Anyway we could argue about it all day, my point is that it's easy for people to say 'we are the Celtics we need to trade picks for stars and forget about the draft', yet there's no actual reason given as to which stars or how we'll get them.
If Durant comes to the East and makes the East as competitive at the top as the Western Conference is, then there is a strong argument for focusing on rebuilding via the draft, because our chances of winning a championship for the next 6 or 7 years would be pretty bad. Say 5 or 10 %?
eg: Durant and Lebron are in the East. Jimmy Butler stays with the Bulls and they sign a top 20 player to put next to him.
5 years from now it's plausible to say that Philadelphia will be much closer to competing with those teams than we will be.