Author Topic: If we don't make the 2016 playoffs, should we think about going even younger?  (Read 88027 times)

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Offline chambers

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No.  This team already bottomed out.  They're not doing it again in the near future.

Well if you look at the way our team salary is structured past 2015-16, it's definitely possible.
If you think Lebron and the Cavs are going to run the East (with such a brutal West Coast) for the next 5-6 seasons, you can probably afford to try 2 more years of a 're tool' kind of rebuild where getting free agents and trading for stars is your primary choice of star acquisition- with a back up plan of going ultra young/draft pick/developmental.
Brad Stevens is a young coach and he's got 5 more years on that contract. Plenty of time to let him nurture some elite draft talent.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline Donoghus

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No.  This team already bottomed out.  They're not doing it again in the near future.

Well if you look at the way our team salary is structured past 2015-16, it's definitely possible.
If you think Lebron and the Cavs are going to run the East (with such a brutal West Coast) for the next 5-6 seasons, you can probably afford to try 2 more years of a 're tool' kind of rebuild where getting free agents and trading for stars is your primary choice of star acquisition- with a back up plan of going ultra young/draft pick/developmental.
Brad Stevens is a young coach and he's got 5 more years on that contract. Plenty of time to let him nurture some elite draft talent.

There's a difference between "retool" & "bottom out".  I can certainly see this team"retooling" if certain things don't roll their way (striking out on trades, BKN picks aren't as good as hoped" but I don't see them bottoming out again while Stevens is here.  And doubt Danny would even be around for another bottom out.


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Offline Big333223

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The smartest thing about the rebuild, so far, seems to be that Danny isn't holding to a certain kid of blueprint. Acquiring assetts and maintaining flexibility means he'll be able to make whatever the best deal is whenever the situation dictates it.

If the Celtics pick up where they left off in last year's regular season playing better than .500 ball, he can try to consolodate and get a star. If they flounder, he can do what he did the last two seasons and fire sale the team to try to get a better pick (and probably not get the late season resurgence the team gave last year).

It's the ability to go in a number of different directions that will be most valuable going forward.
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Offline GreenWarrior

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if we don't have a superstar or 2 by 2016 the flexibility will have amounted to nothing and being a lottery team instead of a team that gets bounced in the 1st rnd. will have looked like a better option.

Offline Future Celtics Owner

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if we don't have a superstar or 2 by 2016 the flexibility will have amounted to nothing and being a lottery team instead of a team that gets bounced in the 1st rnd. will have looked like a better option.
Chambers I agree with him and his OP. And you sir, I agree with you. People on this board watch the Pats, Bruins, Sox, and maybe even the revolution and women soccer......they do not understand that its all about stars and having the right ones. Ex. PP Ray and KG are the equivalent or better than Paul George, Anthony Davis, and Klay Thompson.....plus we had another All Star in RR.

I hate bandwagon fans. I can't watch Celtics games during almost the whole big three era at Bars or using my season tickets. I just sold my season tickets on stub hub and went to the games I wanted to but I hate people that only care about being relevant to have a form of entertainment. Maybe if series were a total of 1 game like in football but they are 7 games and the right stars will cook you and bake you......also why do do many people think being swept by the Cavs was entertaining? It kept us from adding a huge piece to our team: Myles Turner or Justise Winslow.

Offline Big333223

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if we don't have a superstar or 2 by 2016 the flexibility will have amounted to nothing and being a lottery team instead of a team that gets bounced in the 1st rnd. will have looked like a better option.
Why would that have been a better option? The Timberwolves have been a lottery team for 11 seasons and only now seem like they have a viable championship base for the future (and they're still not making the playoffs this season). The Kings have been a lottery team for 9 years. There's no guarentee that missing the playoffs will get the Celtics a star either.
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Offline alldaboston

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if we don't have a superstar or 2 by 2016 the flexibility will have amounted to nothing and being a lottery team instead of a team that gets bounced in the 1st rnd. will have looked like a better option.
Why would that have been a better option? The Timberwolves have been a lottery team for 11 seasons and only now seem like they have a viable championship base for the future (and they're still not making the playoffs this season). The Kings have been a lottery team for 9 years. There's no guarentee that missing the playoffs will get the Celtics a star either.

Yeah, and tbh Danny's draft record is less than desirable in my opinion. I wouldn't want to be in the lottery that long with Danny as the picker.
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

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Offline GreenWarrior

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if we don't have a superstar or 2 by 2016 the flexibility will have amounted to nothing and being a lottery team instead of a team that gets bounced in the 1st rnd. will have looked like a better option.
Why would that have been a better option? The Timberwolves have been a lottery team for 11 seasons and only now seem like they have a viable championship base for the future (and they're still not making the playoffs this season). The Kings have been a lottery team for 9 years. There's no guarentee that missing the playoffs will get the Celtics a star either.

Yeah, and tbh Danny's draft record is less than desirable in my opinion. I wouldn't want to be in the lottery that long with Danny as the picker.

i'd take my chances with danny drafting or moving lottery picks for something.

the kings and T-wolves? gee great examples, those teams have been in the lottery since before the internet. maybe it's the organization and not the lottery...

Offline chambers

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No.  This team already bottomed out.  They're not doing it again in the near future.

Well if you look at the way our team salary is structured past 2015-16, it's definitely possible.
If you think Lebron and the Cavs are going to run the East (with such a brutal West Coast) for the next 5-6 seasons, you can probably afford to try 2 more years of a 're tool' kind of rebuild where getting free agents and trading for stars is your primary choice of star acquisition- with a back up plan of going ultra young/draft pick/developmental.
Brad Stevens is a young coach and he's got 5 more years on that contract. Plenty of time to let him nurture some elite draft talent.

There's a difference between "retool" & "bottom out".  I can certainly see this team"retooling" if certain things don't roll their way (striking out on trades, BKN picks aren't as good as hoped" but I don't see them bottoming out again while Stevens is here.  And doubt Danny would even be around for another bottom out.

Yes there is a difference, that's why I think (just my opinion) that Danny has left the door open for a complete rebuild + development of picks/youth after 2016.
I'm saying right now we are somewhat re-tooling. If this re-tooling plan fails then we may just bring out the dynamite and ship out everyone that's over 25 years old or close to it.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline chambers

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if we don't have a superstar or 2 by 2016 the flexibility will have amounted to nothing and being a lottery team instead of a team that gets bounced in the 1st rnd. will have looked like a better option.
Why would that have been a better option? The Timberwolves have been a lottery team for 11 seasons and only now seem like they have a viable championship base for the future (and they're still not making the playoffs this season). The Kings have been a lottery team for 9 years. There's no guarentee that missing the playoffs will get the Celtics a star either.

Yeah, and tbh Danny's draft record is less than desirable in my opinion. I wouldn't want to be in the lottery that long with Danny as the picker.

I dunno if that's really fair.
How many opportunities has he had in the deep lottery?
he traded our 4th pick for Ray Allen (which convinced KG to come here) and has stated multiple times that Durant was his man in that draft.
Then he picked Marcus Smart.
He flunked the #8 pick for Telfair (I think it was Telfair+someone for our 8th) and he's picked Al Jeff at #14 and Marcus Smart at #5.
He tried to get Justise Winslow this draft too.

Nothing suggests he's a bad drafter particularly in the deep lottery because he hasnt had much opportunity.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Well I guess DA and CBS could cruise the Middle Schools for talent.

Offline dreamgreen

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They need to keep adding talent, staying under 28 is a great idea but drafting 4 players every year is a bad idea.

Offline Big333223

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if we don't have a superstar or 2 by 2016 the flexibility will have amounted to nothing and being a lottery team instead of a team that gets bounced in the 1st rnd. will have looked like a better option.
Why would that have been a better option? The Timberwolves have been a lottery team for 11 seasons and only now seem like they have a viable championship base for the future (and they're still not making the playoffs this season). The Kings have been a lottery team for 9 years. There's no guarentee that missing the playoffs will get the Celtics a star either.

Yeah, and tbh Danny's draft record is less than desirable in my opinion. I wouldn't want to be in the lottery that long with Danny as the picker.

I dunno if that's really fair.
How many opportunities has he had in the deep lottery?
he traded our 4th pick for Ray Allen (which convinced KG to come here) and has stated multiple times that Durant was his man in that draft.
Then he picked Marcus Smart.
He flunked the #8 pick for Telfair (I think it was Telfair+someone for our 8th) and he's picked Al Jeff at #14 and Marcus Smart at #5.
He tried to get Justise Winslow this draft too.

Nothing suggests he's a bad drafter particularly in the deep lottery because he hasnt had much opportunity.
Yeah, I think Danny is a pretty good drafter. Aside from Jefferson with #14 (good pick) and Smart at #6 (too early to tell) he got Rajon Rondo at #21 (great pick), Avery Bradley at #19 (good pick), and Sullinger at #21 (even if he doesn't get any better, he's overacheived a 21st selection, I think). He also drafted Tony Allen at #25 (good pick).

Other than that, he hasn't kept any lottery picks. He probably screwed up the Randy Foye trade with Rudy Gay still on the board but they already had Pierce so taking Gay there wouldn't have made much sense (unless you think they should've taken him and traded him but since they traded the pick anyway, that's basically what they did with the player that they knew they could get a deal done with, albeit a bad deal).

That said, there is just no guarentee that landing in the lottery gets us a star. Hell, Evan Turner was the #2 overall pick. Drafting is always a bit of a gamble. It's the best way to get a star so its usually worth that gamble but it's not the certainty some fans seem to think it is.
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Offline PhoSita

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I'm not saying this will happen, or that it's likely to happen, but it's not implausible:

- The Celts extend Tyler Zeller for 5 years / $50 million.

- Danny opts not to make a significant trade during the regular season, preferring to preserve cap flexibility.

- The team ends up with one pick in the back half of the top 10 and two picks in the middle of the 1st round.

- The team trades one, two, or all three of Isaiah Thomas, Kelly Olynyk and Avery Bradley along with one or two picks to move up in the draft. The team drafts three or more players who all stand to vie for playing time at the 3, 4, and 5.

- David Lee, Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, and Evan Turner all leave in free agency next summer.

- After a fairly strong season that nonetheless leaves significant concerns about his future, Jared Sullinger gets an offer in excess of $58 million from another team.  The Celts choose not to match.


With all that, the team a year from now could be comprised of:

Smart
Crowder
Rozier
Hunter
Young
Mickey
Zeller
Rookie #1
Rookie #2
Rookie #3

Throw in a couple of short-term make-good deals like what the Celts gave to Jerebko and Amir Johnson this summer.  Example -- Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert.

It's not so crazy to think the team could be pretty bad in the following season, even though things would look pretty bright for the future if they're developing Smart, Hunter, Young, and Mickey, while integrating a couple of top 10 picks from the 2016 draft.


This type of scenario is actually a silver lining for me.  No matter how much the Celts seem to be invested in trying to be a respectable middle of the road team this season, the potential is still there to take a step back next summer and focus on developing young talent, provided they get some luck with the Nets and Mavs pick and perhaps find a trade partner higher in the lottery.
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Offline chilidawg

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I'm not saying this will happen, or that it's likely to happen, but it's not implausible:

- The Celts extend Tyler Zeller for 5 years / $50 million.

- Danny opts not to make a significant trade during the regular season, preferring to preserve cap flexibility.

- The team ends up with one pick in the back half of the top 10 and two picks in the middle of the 1st round.

- The team trades one, two, or all three of Isaiah Thomas, Kelly Olynyk and Avery Bradley along with one or two picks to move up in the draft. The team drafts three or more players who all stand to vie for playing time at the 3, 4, and 5.

- David Lee, Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, and Evan Turner all leave in free agency next summer.

- After a fairly strong season that nonetheless leaves significant concerns about his future, Jared Sullinger gets an offer in excess of $58 million from another team.  The Celts choose not to match.


With all that, the team a year from now could be comprised of:

Smart
Crowder
Rozier
Hunter
Young
Mickey
Zeller
Rookie #1
Rookie #2
Rookie #3

Throw in a couple of short-term make-good deals like what the Celts gave to Jerebko and Amir Johnson this summer.  Example -- Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert.

It's not so crazy to think the team could be pretty bad in the following season, even though things would look pretty bright for the future if they're developing Smart, Hunter, Young, and Mickey, while integrating a couple of top 10 picks from the 2016 draft.


This type of scenario is actually a silver lining for me.  No matter how much the Celts seem to be invested in trying to be a respectable middle of the road team this season, the potential is still there to take a step back next summer and focus on developing young talent, provided they get some luck with the Nets and Mavs pick and perhaps find a trade partner higher in the lottery.

You had me until you got to Gordon and Hibbert.  Can't imagine a bigger step back.