If we don't make the 2016 playoffs, should we think about going even younger?

[slamtheking]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

Just wondering, where do you see the picks ending up? If we go by last year's standings and draft order, then the 10th and 11th seeds in the East got the 10th and 9th picks respectively. Say the Nets and Celtics finished 10th and 11th and the Mavs are the 11th seed in the West. That would give us the 9th, 10th, and 12th picks. That would be a massive infusion of talent, and those are fairly conservative estimates for how bad the Nets and Mavs could be IMO.

My best guess on where those picks will end up (putting aside what my hopes are for those picks) are:
- Nets - top 5 pick
- Dallas - 8-9
- Celtics - 11-12
I think we just miss out on the Minny pick with them coming in 10-11.

I think the Nets will implode this season and we'll reap the rewards of it.  Dallas will miss the playoffs in the West without question but there will be at least 7 teams worse than them--mostly in the East.  C's, while having a better team to start the year than last year, did not catch any of the teams that had a better record than them in the East last year and I believe at least Miami will pass them.  I think they'll be fighting with Indy (and probably Detroit and a surprising Charlotte team--no thanks to Frank Kaminsky) for that 8th seed and come up just short.  There will be 2-3 teams in the West that miss the playoffs that have a better record than the C's thus pushing them down to 11 or 12.

for the record, I'd like to see the C's in the playoffs again next year, I just don't think it'll happen.  Before acquiring Lee, I was sure it wouldn't happen.  Now, I think they have a fighting chance with a decent second scoring option to put on the floor with IT at the end.  The D won't be that good but they should be better at putting points on the board in the 4th. 

[Eja117]

The first thing I thought when I went to click on this was "Ok. This is freakin me out" and the first line in the op was "Ok don't freak out"

[slamtheking]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

So lets assume that we don't have a trade for a star or no free agency prospects. It's draft night and we have to either draft with these picks or use them to move up.

Do you think it's possible that we just press reset? And how would you feel if we did reset?

Say draft night 2016 and we've only got:

Avery signed age 25 next season
Thomas signed age 27 next season
Crowder age 25 next season
Olynyk age 24 for one season remaining on rookie deal.
Smart age 22 next season
Rozier age 22 next season
Young age 20 next season
Hunter age 22 next season
Mickey age 21 next season

you're omitting Sully as a RFA and team options on Amir and Jonas.  that's 12 players right there.  While Amir and Jonas can just be let go if necessary, Sully won't be walking free. 

2016 picks:
Brooklyn pick 2016
Dallas pick 2016
Celtics pick
2017 picks:
Brooklyn rights 2017
Celtics pick 2017
2018 picks:
Brooklyn pick 2018
Celtics pick 2018

2016 - C's will get 4 second rounders as well in addition to either a first or second rounder from Minny.  This doesn't even include their own second rounder which is going out in a trade

2017 it's the option to switch, we don't get the Nets pick without giving up our own.  Also, 4 more second rounders unless we switch with the Nets then we give up our own second.

2018 - also a second rounder

2019 - most likely the year they can collect the first rounder from Memphis in addition to having their own first and second rounder.

That's a lot of new bodies coming in if these picks aren't used in some trades. 

eg Draft someone with Dallas pick. Combine our 12th pick+Brooklyn #10 for a move into the top 5 .
Stink for a year and get another good pick.
 Or Draft 3 guys with all those picks and then take advantage of our 'youth' by finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference, having our own pick in the top 5, and a Brooklyn pick that could be top 10 again.

Keep Crowder to play SF and build up his trade value and keep his work ethic in the locker room with Smart for the new guys to learn from.

I think it's Brooklyn in the top 5, Dallas at 8-9 and C's 11-12 in terms of where the picks end up.

Take BPA with the Brooklyn Pick.  See if combining the Dallas and C's picks can get us to #6 or better and take BPA there (or better yet, use the bucketfull of seconds to move up each of the Dallas and C's picks instead).  if not, take BPA where we're slotted.  I think we'll do well in either situation.

I don't like the idea of jettisoning the vets just to get younger or tank.  move the vets (or younger players) to get better vets if possible.  (I seem to be in the minority in disliking IT as our go-to scorer/PG down the stretch of games but he'd be my top candidate.)  For that matter, if we had 3 lottery picks next year, that could make one helluva a package for a top of the line prime player.

[Celtics4ever]

I think Ainge will be trying to get a superstar be it through the draft or via trade.   There is a possibilty that he moves some of the picks, depending if he can get another GM to bite.

[Casperian]

In other words, we look like team that doesn't know where it's going, and is just *hoping* to dear god that we can trade for, or sign, multiple top 20 NBA players to take us to the next level.

That is not what we're doing, though. We're not "hoping to dear God" that we can acquire a top player, we are preparing for it. It is inevitable that a star player becomes available, and we have to be in a position to strike when the time comes.

[chambers]

In other words, we look like team that doesn't know where it's going, and is just *hoping* to dear god that we can trade for, or sign, multiple top 20 NBA players to take us to the next level.

That is not what we're doing, though. We're not "hoping to dear God" that we can acquire a top player, we are preparing for it. It is inevitable that a star player becomes available, and we have to be in a position to strike when the time comes.

No, we are preparing for it and hoping to dear god that other teams don't have better assets to offer at the time...say...an Okafur or a Nerlens Noel...or a Khris Middleton or Giannis...or a Russell for Cousins etc...

[chambers]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

So lets assume that we don't have a trade for a star or no free agency prospects. It's draft night and we have to either draft with these picks or use them to move up.

Do you think it's possible that we just press reset? And how would you feel if we did reset?

Say draft night 2016 and we've only got:

Avery signed age 25 next season
Thomas signed age 27 next season
Crowder age 25 next season
Olynyk age 24 for one season remaining on rookie deal.
Smart age 22 next season
Rozier age 22 next season
Young age 20 next season
Hunter age 22 next season
Mickey age 21 next season

you're omitting Sully as a RFA and team options on Amir and Jonas.  that's 12 players right there.  While Amir and Jonas can just be let go if necessary, Sully won't be walking free. 

2016 picks:
Brooklyn pick 2016
Dallas pick 2016
Celtics pick
2017 picks:
Brooklyn rights 2017
Celtics pick 2017
2018 picks:
Brooklyn pick 2018
Celtics pick 2018

2016 - C's will get 4 second rounders as well in addition to either a first or second rounder from Minny.  This doesn't even include their own second rounder which is going out in a trade

2017 it's the option to switch, we don't get the Nets pick without giving up our own.  Also, 4 more second rounders unless we switch with the Nets then we give up our own second.

2018 - also a second rounder

2019 - most likely the year they can collect the first rounder from Memphis in addition to having their own first and second rounder.

That's a lot of new bodies coming in if these picks aren't used in some trades. 

eg Draft someone with Dallas pick. Combine our 12th pick+Brooklyn #10 for a move into the top 5 .
Stink for a year and get another good pick.
 Or Draft 3 guys with all those picks and then take advantage of our 'youth' by finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference, having our own pick in the top 5, and a Brooklyn pick that could be top 10 again.

Keep Crowder to play SF and build up his trade value and keep his work ethic in the locker room with Smart for the new guys to learn from.

I think it's Brooklyn in the top 5, Dallas at 8-9 and C's 11-12 in terms of where the picks end up.

Take BPA with the Brooklyn Pick.  See if combining the Dallas and C's picks can get us to #6 or better and take BPA there (or better yet, use the bucketfull of seconds to move up each of the Dallas and C's picks instead).  if not, take BPA where we're slotted.  I think we'll do well in either situation.

I don't like the idea of jettisoning the vets just to get younger or tank.  move the vets (or younger players) to get better vets if possible.  (I seem to be in the minority in disliking IT as our go-to scorer/PG down the stretch of games but he'd be my top candidate.)  For that matter, if we had 3 lottery picks next year, that could make one helluva a package for a top of the line prime player.

I'm omitting them because the idea is that we 'clean the slate' of all those guys. Of course we're trying to get something for Sully before letting him walk, and we'll sign him to a value deal if we can- but if he wants big money then we'll let him walk. Similarly to Zeller.

My point is that we can move those expiring and veteran deals at the end of this season without much fuss, and have the above mentioned roster of super young players and a plethora of picks- rather than keep re-signing one and two year deals to players like Amir Johnson and Isaiah Thomas, who fill salary and provide a need, but aren't getting us much closer to a championship.

[nickagneta]

So in other words, if someone gets hurt, blow it up and tank to get the very best chance at getting the very best 19 year old we can.

Yeah.......no!

Youth doesn't mean talent. We need elite talent not youth that might eventually years from now turn into elite talent.

[slamtheking]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

So lets assume that we don't have a trade for a star or no free agency prospects. It's draft night and we have to either draft with these picks or use them to move up.

Do you think it's possible that we just press reset? And how would you feel if we did reset?

Say draft night 2016 and we've only got:

Avery signed age 25 next season
Thomas signed age 27 next season
Crowder age 25 next season
Olynyk age 24 for one season remaining on rookie deal.
Smart age 22 next season
Rozier age 22 next season
Young age 20 next season
Hunter age 22 next season
Mickey age 21 next season

you're omitting Sully as a RFA and team options on Amir and Jonas.  that's 12 players right there.  While Amir and Jonas can just be let go if necessary, Sully won't be walking free. 

2016 picks:
Brooklyn pick 2016
Dallas pick 2016
Celtics pick
2017 picks:
Brooklyn rights 2017
Celtics pick 2017
2018 picks:
Brooklyn pick 2018
Celtics pick 2018

2016 - C's will get 4 second rounders as well in addition to either a first or second rounder from Minny.  This doesn't even include their own second rounder which is going out in a trade

2017 it's the option to switch, we don't get the Nets pick without giving up our own.  Also, 4 more second rounders unless we switch with the Nets then we give up our own second.

2018 - also a second rounder

2019 - most likely the year they can collect the first rounder from Memphis in addition to having their own first and second rounder.

That's a lot of new bodies coming in if these picks aren't used in some trades. 

eg Draft someone with Dallas pick. Combine our 12th pick+Brooklyn #10 for a move into the top 5 .
Stink for a year and get another good pick.
 Or Draft 3 guys with all those picks and then take advantage of our 'youth' by finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference, having our own pick in the top 5, and a Brooklyn pick that could be top 10 again.

Keep Crowder to play SF and build up his trade value and keep his work ethic in the locker room with Smart for the new guys to learn from.

I think it's Brooklyn in the top 5, Dallas at 8-9 and C's 11-12 in terms of where the picks end up.

Take BPA with the Brooklyn Pick.  See if combining the Dallas and C's picks can get us to #6 or better and take BPA there (or better yet, use the bucketfull of seconds to move up each of the Dallas and C's picks instead).  if not, take BPA where we're slotted.  I think we'll do well in either situation.

I don't like the idea of jettisoning the vets just to get younger or tank.  move the vets (or younger players) to get better vets if possible.  (I seem to be in the minority in disliking IT as our go-to scorer/PG down the stretch of games but he'd be my top candidate.)  For that matter, if we had 3 lottery picks next year, that could make one helluva a package for a top of the line prime player.

I'm omitting them because the idea is that we 'clean the slate' of all those guys. Of course we're trying to get something for Sully before letting him walk, and we'll sign him to a value deal if we can- but if he wants big money then we'll let him walk. Similarly to Zeller.

My point is that we can move those expiring and veteran deals at the end of this season without much fuss, and have the above mentioned roster of super young players and a plethora of picks- rather than keep re-signing one and two year deals to players like Amir Johnson and Isaiah Thomas, who fill salary and provide a need, but aren't getting us much closer to a championship.

I get your point, I just don't agree with it.  you've been pretty consistant with that viewpoint the past couple of years.  To your credit, you are consistant and one of the people with that view here who've been able to express that opinion without being obnoxious or confrontational about it. 

IMO, player movement at this point should be in an upward direction -- as in, the overall talent of the team improves not degrades. 

move the vets and younger players coming off rookie deals is fine, provided that in doing so we're bringing in better players and not just getting rid of talent to marginally improve our draft odds. 

[max215]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

Just wondering, where do you see the picks ending up? If we go by last year's standings and draft order, then the 10th and 11th seeds in the East got the 10th and 9th picks respectively. Say the Nets and Celtics finished 10th and 11th and the Mavs are the 11th seed in the West. That would give us the 9th, 10th, and 12th picks. That would be a massive infusion of talent, and those are fairly conservative estimates for how bad the Nets and Mavs could be IMO.

My best guess on where those picks will end up (putting aside what my hopes are for those picks) are:
- Nets - top 5 pick
- Dallas - 8-9
- Celtics - 11-12
I think we just miss out on the Minny pick with them coming in 10-11.

I think the Nets will implode this season and we'll reap the rewards of it.  Dallas will miss the playoffs in the West without question but there will be at least 7 teams worse than them--mostly in the East.  C's, while having a better team to start the year than last year, did not catch any of the teams that had a better record than them in the East last year and I believe at least Miami will pass them.  I think they'll be fighting with Indy (and probably Detroit and a surprising Charlotte team--no thanks to Frank Kaminsky) for that 8th seed and come up just short.  There will be 2-3 teams in the West that miss the playoffs that have a better record than the C's thus pushing them down to 11 or 12.

for the record, I'd like to see the C's in the playoffs again next year, I just don't think it'll happen.  Before acquiring Lee, I was sure it wouldn't happen.  Now, I think they have a fighting chance with a decent second scoring option to put on the floor with IT at the end.  The D won't be that good but they should be better at putting points on the board in the 4th.

Thanks, TP. I agree with you on the Nets, but think the C's and Mavs will be slightly better, something like this:

Nets: 4-6
Mavs: 8-12
Celtics: 16-18

I'm just hoping the Nets pick jumps up to #3; I really want Jaylen Brown.

[ahonui06]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

Just wondering, where do you see the picks ending up? If we go by last year's standings and draft order, then the 10th and 11th seeds in the East got the 10th and 9th picks respectively. Say the Nets and Celtics finished 10th and 11th and the Mavs are the 11th seed in the West. That would give us the 9th, 10th, and 12th picks. That would be a massive infusion of talent, and those are fairly conservative estimates for how bad the Nets and Mavs could be IMO.

My best guess on where those picks will end up (putting aside what my hopes are for those picks) are:
- Nets - top 5 pick
- Dallas - 8-9
- Celtics - 11-12
I think we just miss out on the Minny pick with them coming in 10-11.

I think the Nets will implode this season and we'll reap the rewards of it.  Dallas will miss the playoffs in the West without question but there will be at least 7 teams worse than them--mostly in the East.  C's, while having a better team to start the year than last year, did not catch any of the teams that had a better record than them in the East last year and I believe at least Miami will pass them.  I think they'll be fighting with Indy (and probably Detroit and a surprising Charlotte team--no thanks to Frank Kaminsky) for that 8th seed and come up just short.  There will be 2-3 teams in the West that miss the playoffs that have a better record than the C's thus pushing them down to 11 or 12.

for the record, I'd like to see the C's in the playoffs again next year, I just don't think it'll happen.  Before acquiring Lee, I was sure it wouldn't happen.  Now, I think they have a fighting chance with a decent second scoring option to put on the floor with IT at the end.  The D won't be that good but they should be better at putting points on the board in the 4th.

Thanks, TP. I agree with you on the Nets, but think the C's and Mavs will be slightly better, something like this:

Nets: 4-6
Mavs: 8-12
Celtics: 16-18

I'm just hoping the Nets pick jumps up to #3; I really want Jaylen Brown.

Dallas is definitely going to find a way to make the playoffs in the West. Even at 37, DIRK is still a beast and they have a bunch of players trying to prove themselves this season (Deron, Wes Matthews and Parsons) and a lot of frontcourt depth to get them through the season (Zaza, Dalembert, and other undrafted FAs).

[max215]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

Just wondering, where do you see the picks ending up? If we go by last year's standings and draft order, then the 10th and 11th seeds in the East got the 10th and 9th picks respectively. Say the Nets and Celtics finished 10th and 11th and the Mavs are the 11th seed in the West. That would give us the 9th, 10th, and 12th picks. That would be a massive infusion of talent, and those are fairly conservative estimates for how bad the Nets and Mavs could be IMO.

My best guess on where those picks will end up (putting aside what my hopes are for those picks) are:
- Nets - top 5 pick
- Dallas - 8-9
- Celtics - 11-12
I think we just miss out on the Minny pick with them coming in 10-11.

I think the Nets will implode this season and we'll reap the rewards of it.  Dallas will miss the playoffs in the West without question but there will be at least 7 teams worse than them--mostly in the East.  C's, while having a better team to start the year than last year, did not catch any of the teams that had a better record than them in the East last year and I believe at least Miami will pass them.  I think they'll be fighting with Indy (and probably Detroit and a surprising Charlotte team--no thanks to Frank Kaminsky) for that 8th seed and come up just short.  There will be 2-3 teams in the West that miss the playoffs that have a better record than the C's thus pushing them down to 11 or 12.

for the record, I'd like to see the C's in the playoffs again next year, I just don't think it'll happen.  Before acquiring Lee, I was sure it wouldn't happen.  Now, I think they have a fighting chance with a decent second scoring option to put on the floor with IT at the end.  The D won't be that good but they should be better at putting points on the board in the 4th.

Thanks, TP. I agree with you on the Nets, but think the C's and Mavs will be slightly better, something like this:

Nets: 4-6
Mavs: 8-12
Celtics: 16-18

I'm just hoping the Nets pick jumps up to #3; I really want Jaylen Brown.

Dallas is definitely going to find a way to make the playoffs in the West. Even at 37, DIRK is still a beast and they have a bunch of players trying to prove themselves this season (Deron, Wes Matthews and Parsons) and a lot of frontcourt depth to get them through the season (Zaza, Dalembert, and other undrafted FAs).

I don't see it. Frankly, I think it's more likely that they go full tank and get a top 7 pick than make the playoffs.

Williams: shell of his former self, but possibly a candidate to bounce back with a change of scenery

Mathews: Achilles rupture is an absolute killer and I have no confidence that he'll be the player he once was

Parsons: good player coming off of knee surgery, but will not carry the team, even if he's fully healthy and GREAT

Dirk: not the player he once was, detrimental on defense, greatly declined on offense

Pachulia: decent player, but nothing special

[ahonui06]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

Just wondering, where do you see the picks ending up? If we go by last year's standings and draft order, then the 10th and 11th seeds in the East got the 10th and 9th picks respectively. Say the Nets and Celtics finished 10th and 11th and the Mavs are the 11th seed in the West. That would give us the 9th, 10th, and 12th picks. That would be a massive infusion of talent, and those are fairly conservative estimates for how bad the Nets and Mavs could be IMO.

My best guess on where those picks will end up (putting aside what my hopes are for those picks) are:
- Nets - top 5 pick
- Dallas - 8-9
- Celtics - 11-12
I think we just miss out on the Minny pick with them coming in 10-11.

I think the Nets will implode this season and we'll reap the rewards of it.  Dallas will miss the playoffs in the West without question but there will be at least 7 teams worse than them--mostly in the East.  C's, while having a better team to start the year than last year, did not catch any of the teams that had a better record than them in the East last year and I believe at least Miami will pass them.  I think they'll be fighting with Indy (and probably Detroit and a surprising Charlotte team--no thanks to Frank Kaminsky) for that 8th seed and come up just short.  There will be 2-3 teams in the West that miss the playoffs that have a better record than the C's thus pushing them down to 11 or 12.

for the record, I'd like to see the C's in the playoffs again next year, I just don't think it'll happen.  Before acquiring Lee, I was sure it wouldn't happen.  Now, I think they have a fighting chance with a decent second scoring option to put on the floor with IT at the end.  The D won't be that good but they should be better at putting points on the board in the 4th.

Thanks, TP. I agree with you on the Nets, but think the C's and Mavs will be slightly better, something like this:

Nets: 4-6
Mavs: 8-12
Celtics: 16-18

I'm just hoping the Nets pick jumps up to #3; I really want Jaylen Brown.

Dallas is definitely going to find a way to make the playoffs in the West. Even at 37, DIRK is still a beast and they have a bunch of players trying to prove themselves this season (Deron, Wes Matthews and Parsons) and a lot of frontcourt depth to get them through the season (Zaza, Dalembert, and other undrafted FAs).

I don't see it. Frankly, I think it's more likely that they go full tank and get a top 7 pick than make the playoffs.

Williams: shell of his former self, but possibly a candidate to bounce back with a change of scenery

Mathews: Achilles rupture is an absolute killer and I have no confidence that he'll be the player he once was

Parsons: good player coming off of knee surgery, but will not carry the team, even if he's fully healthy and GREAT

Dirk: not the player he once was, detrimental on defense, greatly declined on offense

Pachulia: decent player, but nothing special

Basically DIRK is just too good for Dallas to be a Top 7 team. Cuban will try his hardest to keep the team afloat the last few years of DIRK's regime. Deron basically has an expiring contract so that's why I think he will have a lot to prove.

[max215]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

Just wondering, where do you see the picks ending up? If we go by last year's standings and draft order, then the 10th and 11th seeds in the East got the 10th and 9th picks respectively. Say the Nets and Celtics finished 10th and 11th and the Mavs are the 11th seed in the West. That would give us the 9th, 10th, and 12th picks. That would be a massive infusion of talent, and those are fairly conservative estimates for how bad the Nets and Mavs could be IMO.

My best guess on where those picks will end up (putting aside what my hopes are for those picks) are:
- Nets - top 5 pick
- Dallas - 8-9
- Celtics - 11-12
I think we just miss out on the Minny pick with them coming in 10-11.

I think the Nets will implode this season and we'll reap the rewards of it.  Dallas will miss the playoffs in the West without question but there will be at least 7 teams worse than them--mostly in the East.  C's, while having a better team to start the year than last year, did not catch any of the teams that had a better record than them in the East last year and I believe at least Miami will pass them.  I think they'll be fighting with Indy (and probably Detroit and a surprising Charlotte team--no thanks to Frank Kaminsky) for that 8th seed and come up just short.  There will be 2-3 teams in the West that miss the playoffs that have a better record than the C's thus pushing them down to 11 or 12.

for the record, I'd like to see the C's in the playoffs again next year, I just don't think it'll happen.  Before acquiring Lee, I was sure it wouldn't happen.  Now, I think they have a fighting chance with a decent second scoring option to put on the floor with IT at the end.  The D won't be that good but they should be better at putting points on the board in the 4th.

Thanks, TP. I agree with you on the Nets, but think the C's and Mavs will be slightly better, something like this:

Nets: 4-6
Mavs: 8-12
Celtics: 16-18

I'm just hoping the Nets pick jumps up to #3; I really want Jaylen Brown.

Dallas is definitely going to find a way to make the playoffs in the West. Even at 37, DIRK is still a beast and they have a bunch of players trying to prove themselves this season (Deron, Wes Matthews and Parsons) and a lot of frontcourt depth to get them through the season (Zaza, Dalembert, and other undrafted FAs).

I don't see it. Frankly, I think it's more likely that they go full tank and get a top 7 pick than make the playoffs.

Williams: shell of his former self, but possibly a candidate to bounce back with a change of scenery

Mathews: Achilles rupture is an absolute killer and I have no confidence that he'll be the player he once was

Parsons: good player coming off of knee surgery, but will not carry the team, even if he's fully healthy and GREAT

Dirk: not the player he once was, detrimental on defense, greatly declined on offense

Pachulia: decent player, but nothing special

Basically DIRK is just too good for Dallas to be a Top 7 team. Cuban will try his hardest to keep the team afloat the last few years of DIRK's regime. Deron basically has an expiring contract so that's why I think he will have a lot to prove.

Alright. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here; we have fundamentally different opinions on the talent level in Dallas, TP.

[slamtheking]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

Just wondering, where do you see the picks ending up? If we go by last year's standings and draft order, then the 10th and 11th seeds in the East got the 10th and 9th picks respectively. Say the Nets and Celtics finished 10th and 11th and the Mavs are the 11th seed in the West. That would give us the 9th, 10th, and 12th picks. That would be a massive infusion of talent, and those are fairly conservative estimates for how bad the Nets and Mavs could be IMO.

My best guess on where those picks will end up (putting aside what my hopes are for those picks) are:
- Nets - top 5 pick
- Dallas - 8-9
- Celtics - 11-12
I think we just miss out on the Minny pick with them coming in 10-11.

I think the Nets will implode this season and we'll reap the rewards of it.  Dallas will miss the playoffs in the West without question but there will be at least 7 teams worse than them--mostly in the East.  C's, while having a better team to start the year than last year, did not catch any of the teams that had a better record than them in the East last year and I believe at least Miami will pass them.  I think they'll be fighting with Indy (and probably Detroit and a surprising Charlotte team--no thanks to Frank Kaminsky) for that 8th seed and come up just short.  There will be 2-3 teams in the West that miss the playoffs that have a better record than the C's thus pushing them down to 11 or 12.

for the record, I'd like to see the C's in the playoffs again next year, I just don't think it'll happen.  Before acquiring Lee, I was sure it wouldn't happen.  Now, I think they have a fighting chance with a decent second scoring option to put on the floor with IT at the end.  The D won't be that good but they should be better at putting points on the board in the 4th.

Thanks, TP. I agree with you on the Nets, but think the C's and Mavs will be slightly better, something like this:

Nets: 4-6
Mavs: 8-12
Celtics: 16-18

I'm just hoping the Nets pick jumps up to #3; I really want Jaylen Brown.

Dallas is definitely going to find a way to make the playoffs in the West. Even at 37, DIRK is still a beast and they have a bunch of players trying to prove themselves this season (Deron, Wes Matthews and Parsons) and a lot of frontcourt depth to get them through the season (Zaza, Dalembert, and other undrafted FAs).

I don't see it. Frankly, I think it's more likely that they go full tank and get a top 7 pick than make the playoffs.

Williams: shell of his former self, but possibly a candidate to bounce back with a change of scenery

Mathews: Achilles rupture is an absolute killer and I have no confidence that he'll be the player he once was

Parsons: good player coming off of knee surgery, but will not carry the team, even if he's fully healthy and GREAT

Dirk: not the player he once was, detrimental on defense, greatly declined on offense

Pachulia: decent player, but nothing special

agreed - they're more likely to try to get worse to keep their pick this year than to come close to making the playoffs.
Dallas will finish behind everyone who made the playoffs last year except Portland as well as OKC who missed without Durant and probably Utah who made some real strides last year.  Probably wind up behind Phx and quite possibly Minny as well.  Maybe even Sacramento.  I also wouldn't be completely shocked if Kobe came back and pushed the Lakers past Dallas as well. 

Pencil in Dallas finishing ahead of these teams overall:
Philly, Lakers, Knicks, Denver, Orlando, Portland and Brooklyn--7 teams right there.  Hard to see Dallas finishing worse than any of them --> translation, hello first round pick.  Minny may also finish worse than Dallas but personally, I don't think so. 
For that matter, they could also finish better than Charlotte and/or Indy (depending on Paul George) but since those teams are in the East and have a theoretically easier schedule, those teams should have a few more wins in the end (IMO).