Bradley and Rozier would you make that trade. I wouldn't if I'm Danny. Exum is Overrated.
Exum is not overrated. I'd do that in a heartbeat were I Danny. I'd bet Exum gets you Nerlens.
Seriously, how do you not know Exum is not overrated? I sincerely doubt you've seen much of his play at all. He was on the court for fewer than 2,000 minutes last year. He averaged 5 points, 2.5 assists and 1.5 rebounds (per 36 of 8/4/3) last season. Every metric isn't kind - ORtg, DRtg, VORP, Win shares, etc. He mainly rode the bench in international play. I think he may have played in 1 summer league game this offseason (though I could be wrong on that).
So what have you seen that tells you that Exum is a stud and would net you a 21 year old big man who averaged 13/10 after the All-Star game last year and who is a true rim protector? Because on the face of it, that's a laughable statement.
Here's the question: do you think that the Jazz win more games last year if Exum doesn't play? Supposedly he has a negative VORP, which means the average minimum-salary PG would have been a better option last year. Say Phil Pressey -- if the Jazz played Phil Pressey 1800 minutes instead of Dante Exum, do you really think the Jazz win more basketball games? I personally don't. It's a counter-factual, and you can't prove things one way or another, but there is some evidence.
For starters, Exum has been said to be a very good defender, and is not so good on offense. Accordingly, the Jazz are in fact better on offense when he's off the court, and better on defense when he's on. However, the defense far outweighs offense, and the Jazz perform about 5 points better with Exum on the floor, and outscore opponents by 3 points with Exum. Now, you might say that difference is due to Rudy Gobert, and sure enough, Exum played more minutes with Gobert than any other player. However, the Jazz only outscored opponents by 1 point with Exum and Gobert on the floor at the same time. So it's not just Gobert. Still, quantifying defense is hard, but it does stand to reason that having two plus defenders with limited offensive capability at the same time might not be as synergistic. The opposite would be Exum playing with Kanter. And sure enough, the Exum-Kanter combo made the Jazz 4.3 points better. We can imagine Exum's strong perimeter defense made Kanter less exposed, while Kanter's strong interior scoring gave the weak-offenses Exum an outlet. Furthermore, we can attribute some of the success of this lineup to Exum and not Kanter, as Kanter's team performed better with Exum also on the floor than with any other teammate he played with all year, Thunder or Jazz.
Is it proof that Exum is amazing? No, I'm not saying it is, nor am I really saying he is. But I am saying that Exum's defense has reportedly been worth having on the floor, and that some numbers bear this out. Furthermore, the ore-draft scouring reports said his length and quickness would make him an asset defensively, while he was still looking for a consistent shot and learning how to be a playmaker.
In other words, after having been drafted fifth, and making the jump from Austrlian high school basketball to the NBA, Exum largely met preseason expectations. Now, losing a year to an ACL injury may put him behind on the development curve, but it is at the same time either wrong or indicative of incorrect expectations to say that Exum has been a failure after his first year. Being able to keep his head above water, and contribute positively to his team, while making the jump in competition levels at ten age he did certainly holds promise for his future.