Will Lebron overtake Kareem

[celticsclay]

I was typing up my response on why I thought he wouldn't do it, but then I did the math and it seemed pretty attainable.

LeBron needs 13,474 more points to catch Kareem.  If he plays 10 more seasons, and does the following, he'll be just about there (the following gets him 13,424):

Age 31, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 32, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 33, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 34, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 35, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 36, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 37, Games Played 68, PPG 18
Age 38, Games Played 68, PPG 16
Age 39, Games Played 68, PPG 14
Age 40, Games Played 68, PPG 12

I think it's a pretty safe assumption to say LeBron's never playing 82 games again (actually he's never played 82 games in the first place).  Even if 100% healthy, he's taking some games off every season.

We'll see consistent strong scoring over the next 4 seasons, but maybe with some decline as he tries to facilitate more and lets Love and Irving (or whoever) take more of the scoring load.

Age 35-36 will probably be that drop off, when he's still an All-Star, but not automatically All-NBA.  And as he gets older he'll need more rest and probably incur a few more at least minor injuries, so we're dropping a few points and games from his averages.

Then if he sticks around, age 37 is when we'll see a more noticeable decline in production each year.

I like to think those assumptions are reasonable, though some may disagree.

I appreciate the effort you put into this, but again, this really seems to undersell the decline. You look at guys that are complete shells of themselves right now, especially someone like KG. KG was "only" 38 this past season but was only capable of playing in 47 games and averaging 7 points a game. The season before that at 37, he only made it into 54 and was averaging 6.5. His last season  with Boston at 36 was the last time he sniffed 15 points averaging 14.8 and even that was 68. What is the argument for saying Lebron will keep trucking along for so much longer than KG could and never hit a wall like KG could. If anything, Lebron will have played a ton more minutes because of playoffs and long playoff runs and has a heavier frame that puts more grind on his body.

Obviously it's harder to predict the further you go out, but I'm also underselling the present.  LeBron's never averaged under 25ppg, but I have him doing that the next 4 years.

I think it's wrong to compare LeBron to KG, because KG has never been a scorer.  Karl Malone and Michael Jordan both averaged 20+ppg until age 39.  Kareem did it until age 38.  Dirk just averaged 21 at age 36.

When most people are talking about LeBron's future, they're talking about a guy who will go down as probably the greatest player of all time, at least top 5.  So it's very appropriate to compare him with the other upper echelon of all time greats, and while I love KG he ain't one of them.

So few have done it, but that's what makes this a possibility for LeBron.  When his career is over, he'll likely have done a whole bunch of things that nobody or only a very select few have ever done.

he averaged 25 this year. As the teams talks about the need for him to cut his minutes to last through the whole season, this is not going to increase. So you are not underselling it at all.

I personally also think KG is a much better comparison than MJ. MJ retired twice and had 3 years of long playoff runs removed from his legs.

Any single high school to NBA player that was good seems to have flamed out a little earlier on in their career, and it only makes sense. Jermaine O'neal, KG, McGrady, Rashard Lewis, Kobe etc.

I don't get how we just ignore the fact that Lebron has already played the equivalent in minutes in his career of a guy that is 35 years old. Also just look at your example of Dirk, he is a perfect example of what I am talking about. Next year he will be 37. How many minutes will he play? How many will he average? He was at 17 this year and saw his minutes cut down to 29. What is fair for next year, 14, 15? He also is a player that does not rely on athleticism or strength at all, which is the opposite of Lebron.

[PhoSita]

Tommypoint for you, that is ridiculous. I don´t know if I´m being paranoid, but do I see a pattern of LeBron fans being pro-tankers here?

People have a tendency to see whatever patterns they want to see around here (and in life generally).

[Eja117]

Nope since the league will start testing for HGH this year 

I bet Bron is two generations of PED development ahead of this.

[sahara]

No, I don't think you do.

Thank you. I meant pro-tankers being LeBron fans.

[Eja117]

I went with yes for two reasons. I think he started his career earlier and will end it later than Kareem due to the peds. And the refs coddle him. The rules were changed for him. Defense is barely allowed now.

[Neurotic Guy]

How can you predict it?  LeBron is a unique specimen and nothing like Kareem, who frankly was able to do a ton with an unstoppable shot on a team where he was often a third scoring option. Teams had to worry about a lot of guys with Kareem's lakers while LeBron is always the prime target of defenses.  I can't think of a small forward who was scoring 26 per game at 38.  Ray Allen in great shape couldn't score near his peak in his late 30's and he hung it up at 38. Others: havlicek finished at 37 with 26,000; Bird with 22,000. Non- SFs Karl Malone finished at age 40 with 37,000. Moses finished at 39 (started at 19) with 29,000. 

Obviously by definition the feat would be unprecedented. I think it will be super-human for LeBron to pass kareem. I'll believe it when I see it.  I vote no.

[SHAQATTACK]

I also rank

Kareem and LeBron

Neck and neck ...tie

Two biggest complainers and whiners ever.

[Moranis]

it seems really really unlikely. People seem to view Lebron as a god, but he has a ton of miles on him. If you look at the active players he is tied for with minutes played he around guys like Jason Terry. He is also already seeing slight declines in minutes and points per game now (averaging 25 pts this past season). I don't get how people don't expect that to dip down to even further in coming seasons Finally, he already will start being given rest days and missing some times with minor injuries, like we saw this last season.

If he plays 10 more years and averages 75 games a year, he only needs to average just under 18 a game to tie Kareem.  At 70 games a year it is just over 19 a game.  If he averages 23 a game for the next 5 seasons (70 games a year), then his last 5 seasons he would only need to average 15.5 ppg (at 70 games). 

I think he gets there because I think he wants to get there and will play long enough to do it (and his team will be good enough to let him do it and give him more rest and cover so his body doesn't break down).

Do you realize what a ridiculous premise this is that you are starting with? How many players in the NBA even start their career playing 75 games each year for 10? He is going to be playing 75 games a year in his 38, 39 and 40 year seasons? Anything is possible but history does not support that at all.

Why stop reading after the bold.  That is what is ridiculous.

[Moranis]

I was typing up my response on why I thought he wouldn't do it, but then I did the math and it seemed pretty attainable.

LeBron needs 13,474 more points to catch Kareem.  If he plays 10 more seasons, and does the following, he'll be just about there (the following gets him 13,424):

Age 31, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 32, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 33, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 34, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 35, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 36, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 37, Games Played 68, PPG 18
Age 38, Games Played 68, PPG 16
Age 39, Games Played 68, PPG 14
Age 40, Games Played 68, PPG 12

I think it's a pretty safe assumption to say LeBron's never playing 82 games again (actually he's never played 82 games in the first place).  Even if 100% healthy, he's taking some games off every season.

We'll see consistent strong scoring over the next 4 seasons, but maybe with some decline as he tries to facilitate more and lets Love and Irving (or whoever) take more of the scoring load.

Age 35-36 will probably be that drop off, when he's still an All-Star, but not automatically All-NBA.  And as he gets older he'll need more rest and probably incur a few more at least minor injuries, so we're dropping a few points and games from his averages.

Then if he sticks around, age 37 is when we'll see a more noticeable decline in production each year.

I like to think those assumptions are reasonable, though some may disagree.

I appreciate the effort you put into this, but again, this really seems to undersell the decline. You look at guys that are complete shells of themselves right now, especially someone like KG. KG was "only" 38 this past season but was only capable of playing in 47 games and averaging 7 points a game. The season before that at 37, he only made it into 54 and was averaging 6.5. His last season  with Boston at 36 was the last time he sniffed 15 points averaging 14.8 and even that was 68. What is the argument for saying Lebron will keep trucking along for so much longer than KG could and never hit a wall like KG could. If anything, Lebron will have played a ton more minutes because of playoffs and long playoff runs and has a heavier frame that puts more grind on his body.

Obviously it's harder to predict the further you go out, but I'm also underselling the present.  LeBron's never averaged under 25ppg, but I have him doing that the next 4 years.

I think it's wrong to compare LeBron to KG, because KG has never been a scorer.  Karl Malone and Michael Jordan both averaged 20+ppg until age 39.  Kareem did it until age 38.  Dirk just averaged 21 at age 36.

When most people are talking about LeBron's future, they're talking about a guy who will go down as probably the greatest player of all time, at least top 5.  So it's very appropriate to compare him with the other upper echelon of all time greats, and while I love KG he ain't one of them.

So few have done it, but that's what makes this a possibility for LeBron.  When his career is over, he'll likely have done a whole bunch of things that nobody or only a very select few have ever done.

he averaged 25 this year. As the teams talks about the need for him to cut his minutes to last through the whole season, this is not going to increase. So you are not underselling it at all.

I personally also think KG is a much better comparison than MJ. MJ retired twice and had 3 years of long playoff runs removed from his legs.

Any single high school to NBA player that was good seems to have flamed out a little earlier on in their career, and it only makes sense. Jermaine O'neal, KG, McGrady, Rashard Lewis, Kobe etc.

I don't get how we just ignore the fact that Lebron has already played the equivalent in minutes in his career of a guy that is 35 years old. Also just look at your example of Dirk, he is a perfect example of what I am talking about. Next year he will be 37. How many minutes will he play? How many will he average? He was at 17 this year and saw his minutes cut down to 29. What is fair for next year, 14, 15? He also is a player that does not rely on athleticism or strength at all, which is the opposite of Lebron.

The thing about Kobe is he started off very slowly.  He only had about 4100 points after his 4th year.  Lebron was at around 3800 after his 2nd year.  Kobe scored just under 8000 points from his 31st to 34th years.  Lebron has scored a bit less than Kobe at similar years, so lets say he gets 7200, which would put Lebron at only needing less than 6500 more points or so to pass.  Remember James would just be finishing his 34th year.  Let's say James plays 6 more years after that averaging just 65 games.  He would need to average just 16.7 ppg to tie Kareem.  That is certainly feasible as one would expect him to still be averaging in the 20 ppg range at 35 and 36 (Kobe was averaging over 22 in his 35 games before the latest injury at the age of 36).

The only thing that will really hurt James is he has two excellent scoring teammates which will demand shots (of course that will also ease some of his burden allowing him to play longer).  I think he wants that record, so I think he plays long enough to get it. 

[celticsclay]

it seems really really unlikely. People seem to view Lebron as a god, but he has a ton of miles on him. If you look at the active players he is tied for with minutes played he around guys like Jason Terry. He is also already seeing slight declines in minutes and points per game now (averaging 25 pts this past season). I don't get how people don't expect that to dip down to even further in coming seasons Finally, he already will start being given rest days and missing some times with minor injuries, like we saw this last season.

If he plays 10 more years and averages 75 games a year, he only needs to average just under 18 a game to tie Kareem.  At 70 games a year it is just over 19 a game.  If he averages 23 a game for the next 5 seasons (70 games a year), then his last 5 seasons he would only need to average 15.5 ppg (at 70 games). 

I think he gets there because I think he wants to get there and will play long enough to do it (and his team will be good enough to let him do it and give him more rest and cover so his body doesn't break down).

Do you realize what a ridiculous premise this is that you are starting with? How many players in the NBA even start their career playing 75 games each year for 10? He is going to be playing 75 games a year in his 38, 39 and 40 year seasons? Anything is possible but history does not support that at all.

Why stop reading after the bold.  That is what is ridiculous.

Even after continuing the second premise just is not realistic. Playing 70 games for 10 years straight would mean he went his entire early mid and late 30's without even suffering one severe injury. That really does not make sense. He is already missing 10 games a season now. Anything is possible, but there is a lot more evidence suggesting this won't happen than evidence than it will.

[celticsclay]

How can you predict it?  LeBron is a unique specimen and nothing like Kareem, who frankly was able to do a ton with an unstoppable shot on a team where he was often a third scoring option. Teams had to worry about a lot of guys with Kareem's lakers while LeBron is always the prime target of defenses.  I can't think of a small forward who was scoring 26 per game at 38.  Ray Allen in great shape couldn't score near his peak in his late 30's and he hung it up at 38. Others: havlicek finished at 37 with 26,000; Bird with 22,000. Non- SFs Karl Malone finished at age 40 with 37,000. Moses finished at 39 (started at 19) with 29,000. 

Obviously by definition the feat would be unprecedented. I think it will be super-human for LeBron to pass kareem. I'll believe it when I see it.  I vote no.

This is another thread that does a nice job of putting things in perspective.

[GC003332]

Another example of a older guy who still put up big numbers was Dominique Wilkins, he averaged 28,29 & 26 when he was aged 32,33 & 34 respectively.
I used the 7 seasons of 25 per game as a rough example of what it would take to get to Kareem's total.
As others have pointed out if he plays another 10 years which would take his career up to 22 year mark he can have the expected drop off due to age and still get somewhere close.

[Eja117]

How can you predict it?  LeBron is a unique specimen and nothing like Kareem, who frankly was able to do a ton with an unstoppable shot on a team where he was often a third scoring option. Teams had to worry about a lot of guys with Kareem's lakers while LeBron is always the prime target of defenses.  I can't think of a small forward who was scoring 26 per game at 38.  Ray Allen in great shape couldn't score near his peak in his late 30's and he hung it up at 38. Others: havlicek finished at 37 with 26,000; Bird with 22,000. Non- SFs Karl Malone finished at age 40 with 37,000. Moses finished at 39 (started at 19) with 29,000. 

Obviously by definition the feat would be unprecedented. I think it will be super-human for LeBron to pass kareem. I'll believe it when I see it.  I vote no.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Bron gets a little heavier and eventually moves to power forward

[Celtics4ever]

LeBron is a unique specimen and nothing like Kareem, who frankly was able to do a ton with an unstoppable shot on a team where he was often a third scoring option. Teams had to worry about a lot of guys with Kareem's lakers while LeBron is always the prime target of defenses

 

You are talking about Kareem at the end of his career in the 80s.   He was a stud when young.   If anything, once LeBron athletic ability fades, he will have a rougher road to travel because he coasts on it so much.  Kareem had the sky hook which was effective late in his career, LeBron has his PEDs, I suppose.

[More Banners]

Kareem played for a very long time with an unstoppable shot in an era of very high scoring games and fast pace.

I doubt anyone touches that record without shooting lights out 3's as a top option for nearly two decades without rest of injury.

I just don't see that record falling.