Will Lebron overtake Kareem

[jpotter33]

Nope since the league will start testing for HGH this year 

[celticsclay]

it seems really really unlikely. People seem to view Lebron as a god, but he has a ton of miles on him. If you look at the active players he is tied for with minutes played he around guys like Jason Terry. He is also already seeing slight declines in minutes and points per game now (averaging 25 pts this past season). I don't get how people don't expect that to dip down to even further in coming seasons Finally, he already will start being given rest days and missing some times with minor injuries, like we saw this last season.

[Moranis]

it seems really really unlikely. People seem to view Lebron as a god, but he has a ton of miles on him. If you look at the active players he is tied for with minutes played he around guys like Jason Terry. He is also already seeing slight declines in minutes and points per game now (averaging 25 pts this past season). I don't get how people don't expect that to dip down to even further in coming seasons Finally, he already will start being given rest days and missing some times with minor injuries, like we saw this last season.

If he plays 10 more years and averages 75 games a year, he only needs to average just under 18 a game to tie Kareem.  At 70 games a year it is just over 19 a game.  If he averages 23 a game for the next 5 seasons (70 games a year), then his last 5 seasons he would only need to average 15.5 ppg (at 70 games). 

I think he gets there because I think he wants to get there and will play long enough to do it (and his team will be good enough to let him do it and give him more rest and cover so his body doesn't break down).

[PhoSita]

it seems really really unlikely. People seem to view Lebron as a god, but he has a ton of miles on him. If you look at the active players he is tied for with minutes played he around guys like Jason Terry. He is also already seeing slight declines in minutes and points per game now (averaging 25 pts this past season). I don't get how people don't expect that to dip down to even further in coming seasons Finally, he already will start being given rest days and missing some times with minor injuries, like we saw this last season.

If he plays 10 more years and averages 75 games a year, he only needs to average just under 18 a game to tie Kareem.  At 70 games a year it is just over 19 a game.  If he averages 23 a game for the next 5 seasons (70 games a year), then his last 5 seasons he would only need to average 15.5 ppg (at 70 games). 

I think he gets there because I think he wants to get there and will play long enough to do it (and his team will be good enough to let him do it and give him more rest and cover so his body doesn't break down).

I have little doubt it'll happen if he can keep playing, but I seem to recall people talking about Kobe as if he were also guaranteed to eventually beat Kareem's record, and yet look where he's at now.  Things can go downhill fast when you have that many miles on your knees and lower legs.

At some point, going deep into the playoffs year after year is going to catch up with LeBron.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Nope since the league will start testing for HGH this year 

Exactly what I was going to say-!
 

[D.o.s.]

The biggest question mark comes at the second half of his 30's, from 35 onward. That's where the list of players who were able to average 18 or more dwindles down to the big names of NBA history books:
http://bkref.com/tiny/pkkqN

LeBron's definitely capable of that level of play.

[heitingas]

I think LeBron plays another ten years in the league, probably plays fulltime PF when he reaches 34, that will prolongue his career. So the answer is yes he will break the scoring record if he's healthy.

[celticsclay]

it seems really really unlikely. People seem to view Lebron as a god, but he has a ton of miles on him. If you look at the active players he is tied for with minutes played he around guys like Jason Terry. He is also already seeing slight declines in minutes and points per game now (averaging 25 pts this past season). I don't get how people don't expect that to dip down to even further in coming seasons Finally, he already will start being given rest days and missing some times with minor injuries, like we saw this last season.

If he plays 10 more years and averages 75 games a year, he only needs to average just under 18 a game to tie Kareem.  At 70 games a year it is just over 19 a game.  If he averages 23 a game for the next 5 seasons (70 games a year), then his last 5 seasons he would only need to average 15.5 ppg (at 70 games). 

I think he gets there because I think he wants to get there and will play long enough to do it (and his team will be good enough to let him do it and give him more rest and cover so his body doesn't break down).

Do you realize what a ridiculous premise this is that you are starting with? How many players in the NBA even start their career playing 75 games each year for 10? He is going to be playing 75 games a year in his 38, 39 and 40 year seasons? Anything is possible but history does not support that at all.

[celticsclay]

The biggest question mark comes at the second half of his 30's, from 35 onward. That's where the list of players who were able to average 18 or more dwindles down to the big names of NBA history books:
http://bkref.com/tiny/pkkqN

LeBron's definitely capable of that level of play.

Thanks for adding a little rationality to this debate with numbers. If you look at that list closely, the only two guys that did it for 4 years were Malone and Kareem. Yet, people here are saying he is going to do it two more seasons on top of that!

[bdm860]

I was typing up my response on why I thought he wouldn't do it, but then I did the math and it seemed pretty attainable.

LeBron needs 13,474 more points to catch Kareem.  If he plays 10 more seasons, and does the following, he'll be just about there (the following gets him 13,424):

Age 31, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 32, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 33, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 34, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 35, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 36, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 37, Games Played 68, PPG 18
Age 38, Games Played 68, PPG 16
Age 39, Games Played 68, PPG 14
Age 40, Games Played 68, PPG 12

I think it's a pretty safe assumption to say LeBron's never playing 82 games again (actually he's never played 82 games in the first place).  Even if 100% healthy, he's taking some games off every season.

We'll see consistent strong scoring over the next 4 seasons, but maybe with some decline as he tries to facilitate more and lets Love and Irving (or whoever) take more of the scoring load.

Age 35-36 will probably be that drop off, when he's still an All-Star, but not automatically All-NBA.  And as he gets older he'll need more rest and probably incur a few more at least minor injuries, so we're dropping a few points and games from his averages.

Then if he sticks around, age 37 is when we'll see a more noticeable decline in production each year.

I like to think those assumptions are reasonable, though some may disagree.

[celticsclay]

I was typing up my response on why I thought he wouldn't do it, but then I did the math and it seemed pretty attainable.

LeBron needs 13,474 more points to catch Kareem.  If he plays 10 more seasons, and does the following, he'll be just about there (the following gets him 13,424):

Age 31, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 32, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 33, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 34, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 35, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 36, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 37, Games Played 68, PPG 18
Age 38, Games Played 68, PPG 16
Age 39, Games Played 68, PPG 14
Age 40, Games Played 68, PPG 12

I think it's a pretty safe assumption to say LeBron's never playing 82 games again (actually he's never played 82 games in the first place).  Even if 100% healthy, he's taking some games off every season.

We'll see consistent strong scoring over the next 4 seasons, but maybe with some decline as he tries to facilitate more and lets Love and Irving (or whoever) take more of the scoring load.

Age 35-36 will probably be that drop off, when he's still an All-Star, but not automatically All-NBA.  And as he gets older he'll need more rest and probably incur a few more at least minor injuries, so we're dropping a few points and games from his averages.

Then if he sticks around, age 37 is when we'll see a more noticeable decline in production each year.

I like to think those assumptions are reasonable, though some may disagree.

I appreciate the effort you put into this, but again, this really seems to undersell the decline. You look at guys that are complete shells of themselves right now, especially someone like KG. KG was "only" 38 this past season but was only capable of playing in 47 games and averaging 7 points a game. The season before that at 37, he only made it into 54 and was averaging 6.5. His last season  with Boston at 36 was the last time he sniffed 15 points averaging 14.8 and even that was 68. What is the argument for saying Lebron will keep trucking along for so much longer than KG could and never hit a wall like KG could. If anything, Lebron will have played a ton more minutes because of playoffs and long playoff runs and has a heavier frame that puts more grind on his body.

[sahara]

it seems really really unlikely. People seem to view Lebron as a god, but he has a ton of miles on him. If you look at the active players he is tied for with minutes played he around guys like Jason Terry. He is also already seeing slight declines in minutes and points per game now (averaging 25 pts this past season). I don't get how people don't expect that to dip down to even further in coming seasons Finally, he already will start being given rest days and missing some times with minor injuries, like we saw this last season.

If he plays 10 more years and averages 75 games a year, he only needs to average just under 18 a game to tie Kareem.  At 70 games a year it is just over 19 a game.  If he averages 23 a game for the next 5 seasons (70 games a year), then his last 5 seasons he would only need to average 15.5 ppg (at 70 games). 

I think he gets there because I think he wants to get there and will play long enough to do it (and his team will be good enough to let him do it and give him more rest and cover so his body doesn't break down).

Do you realize what a ridiculous premise this is that you are starting with? How many players in the NBA even start their career playing 75 games each year for 10? He is going to be playing 75 games a year in his 38, 39 and 40 year seasons? Anything is possible but history does not support that at all.

Tommypoint for you, that is ridiculous. I don´t know if I´m being paranoid, but do I see a pattern of LeBron fans being pro-tankers here?

[D.o.s.]

No, I don't think you do.

[bdm860]

I was typing up my response on why I thought he wouldn't do it, but then I did the math and it seemed pretty attainable.

LeBron needs 13,474 more points to catch Kareem.  If he plays 10 more seasons, and does the following, he'll be just about there (the following gets him 13,424):

Age 31, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 32, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 33, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 34, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 35, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 36, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 37, Games Played 68, PPG 18
Age 38, Games Played 68, PPG 16
Age 39, Games Played 68, PPG 14
Age 40, Games Played 68, PPG 12

I think it's a pretty safe assumption to say LeBron's never playing 82 games again (actually he's never played 82 games in the first place).  Even if 100% healthy, he's taking some games off every season.

We'll see consistent strong scoring over the next 4 seasons, but maybe with some decline as he tries to facilitate more and lets Love and Irving (or whoever) take more of the scoring load.

Age 35-36 will probably be that drop off, when he's still an All-Star, but not automatically All-NBA.  And as he gets older he'll need more rest and probably incur a few more at least minor injuries, so we're dropping a few points and games from his averages.

Then if he sticks around, age 37 is when we'll see a more noticeable decline in production each year.

I like to think those assumptions are reasonable, though some may disagree.

I appreciate the effort you put into this, but again, this really seems to undersell the decline. You look at guys that are complete shells of themselves right now, especially someone like KG. KG was "only" 38 this past season but was only capable of playing in 47 games and averaging 7 points a game. The season before that at 37, he only made it into 54 and was averaging 6.5. His last season  with Boston at 36 was the last time he sniffed 15 points averaging 14.8 and even that was 68. What is the argument for saying Lebron will keep trucking along for so much longer than KG could and never hit a wall like KG could. If anything, Lebron will have played a ton more minutes because of playoffs and long playoff runs and has a heavier frame that puts more grind on his body.

Obviously it's harder to predict the further you go out, but I'm also underselling the present.  LeBron's never averaged under 25ppg, but I have him doing that the next 4 years.

I think it's wrong to compare LeBron to KG, because KG has never been a scorer.  Karl Malone and Michael Jordan both averaged 20+ppg until age 39.  Kareem did it until age 38.  Dirk just averaged 21 at age 36.

When most people are talking about LeBron's future, they're talking about a guy who will go down as probably the greatest player of all time, at least top 5.  So it's very appropriate to compare him with the other upper echelon of all time greats, and while I love KG he ain't one of them.

So few have done it, but that's what makes this a possibility for LeBron.  When his career is over, he'll likely have done a whole bunch of things that nobody or only a very select few have ever done.

[JBcat]

I was typing up my response on why I thought he wouldn't do it, but then I did the math and it seemed pretty attainable.

LeBron needs 13,474 more points to catch Kareem.  If he plays 10 more seasons, and does the following, he'll be just about there (the following gets him 13,424):

Age 31, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 32, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 33, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 34, Games Played 72, PPG 23
Age 35, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 36, Games Played 68, PPG 20
Age 37, Games Played 68, PPG 18
Age 38, Games Played 68, PPG 16
Age 39, Games Played 68, PPG 14
Age 40, Games Played 68, PPG 12

I think it's a pretty safe assumption to say LeBron's never playing 82 games again (actually he's never played 82 games in the first place).  Even if 100% healthy, he's taking some games off every season.

We'll see consistent strong scoring over the next 4 seasons, but maybe with some decline as he tries to facilitate more and lets Love and Irving (or whoever) take more of the scoring load.

Age 35-36 will probably be that drop off, when he's still an All-Star, but not automatically All-NBA.  And as he gets older he'll need more rest and probably incur a few more at least minor injuries, so we're dropping a few points and games from his averages.

Then if he sticks around, age 37 is when we'll see a more noticeable decline in production each year.

I like to think those assumptions are reasonable, though some may disagree.

I appreciate the effort you put into this, but again, this really seems to undersell the decline. You look at guys that are complete shells of themselves right now, especially someone like KG. KG was "only" 38 this past season but was only capable of playing in 47 games and averaging 7 points a game. The season before that at 37, he only made it into 54 and was averaging 6.5. His last season  with Boston at 36 was the last time he sniffed 15 points averaging 14.8 and even that was 68. What is the argument for saying Lebron will keep trucking along for so much longer than KG could and never hit a wall like KG could. If anything, Lebron will have played a ton more minutes because of playoffs and long playoff runs and has a heavier frame that puts more grind on his body.

I agree and to add I think it's easier for bigs & pure skill and shooting players to age gracefully.

In comparing to all time greats Lebron relies on his elite athleticism moreso than others.  As his athletism declines it's going to be really interesting how he ages.  He may have to become more of a power forward as he reaches his mid 30s.