Author Topic: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS  (Read 4296 times)

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Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2015, 08:57:44 AM »

Offline Joe Green

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Keep in mind that the 2 guard position has the lowest efficiency as a position. We ask Bradley and Turner to fill lower efficiency roles. If we plug Smart in there and have him score 14-15 points a game against starters and he is efficient, then he deserves the spot. But he will have to improve as a player to do it. He shot under 37% and scored less than 8 points per game in just a few less minutes than Bradley. The team needed Bradley and Turner to make plays. Smart could pick his spots.

This is not about individual efficiency. This is about how the team plays when you are on the court. You could score ZERO points and still have a positive +/-. Also - I am looking at combinations of players. You see Smart and IT CAN share the court. You see Jonas makes everyone around him better. That is my point.

AB is a terrible passer and kills the team ball. I like him - but we need to consider alternatives because the TEAM sucks when he plays.....

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2015, 09:21:23 AM »

Offline Smitty77

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The stats for Jerebko and Kelly need to be taken with a grain of salt because of who they were playing against and what positions they were playing.

Jerebko put up nice stats playing as a small-ball 4 and 5 against bench units and gassed starters.  Could he be that useful playing at the 3 in the starting lineup?

Can Kelly really work as a starting center?  I kind of doubt it.  As a starter, I think he needs to be in there at the 4, though Amir can probably function effectively as the center.


I'm intrigued by the idea of starting Jonas, I'm just not sure how effective he can be at the 3.  I have little doubt that Lee and Amir will be our starting frontcourt, for better or for worse.

There is no probably about Amir functioning effectively as the center!! 

http://www.82games.com/1415/14TOR9.HTM

That is likely his best position for the rest of his career.

Smitty77

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2015, 10:02:55 AM »

Offline BballTim

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The problem with your statistical analysis is that there's a lot of stats with little analysis.

This is something, unfortunately, that happens a lot on the basketball internet.

  The bigger problem, which happens just as often, is the "the sample size might be too small to draw any reasonable conclusions from, but it's the only one we have so we're basing our discussion on it".

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #18 on: August 04, 2015, 10:06:33 AM »

Offline Joe Green

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Check this out:
http://www.82games.com/1415/14BOS16.HTM

Thomas-Smart-Crowder-Jerebko-Olynyk lineup spent a ton of time on the floor and destroyed the opponents.

Thomas-Smart-Young-Crowder-Jerebko - also surprisingly effective, even though Young was garbage.

Jerebko works best as PF or Center with IT and Smart setting him up. Given the fact Amir is maybe our best Center at this point, and loves playing with a stretch PF I am going with

IT-Smart-Crowder-JJ-Johnson as our potentially best lineup..

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #19 on: August 04, 2015, 10:11:57 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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The problem with your statistical analysis is that there's a lot of stats with little analysis.

This is something, unfortunately, that happens a lot on the basketball internet.

  The bigger problem, which happens just as often, is the "the sample size might be too small to draw any reasonable conclusions from, but it's the only one we have so we're basing our discussion on it".

Probably true overall but you can still field some interesting discussions if you acknowledge that.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #20 on: August 04, 2015, 12:00:51 PM »

Offline Joe Green

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The problem with your statistical analysis is that there's a lot of stats with little analysis.

This is something, unfortunately, that happens a lot on the basketball internet.

  The bigger problem, which happens just as often, is the "the sample size might be too small to draw any reasonable conclusions from, but it's the only one we have so we're basing our discussion on it".

Probably true overall but you can still field some interesting discussions if you acknowledge that.

With the season we had and the constant shuffling of players and lineups, data is somewhat fragmented. Still:
I only took lineups with 100+ minutes together
Jerebko appears in 500+ minutes combines all with +12 or better
Thomas is in 400+ minutes including 230 minutes sharing backcourt with smart
Smart is in 400+ minutes

Sully appears in 500 minutes of stinking the court followed by Turner and Bradley....

Any way you slice it - Jerebko was great and obviously Danny feels the same. Olynyk was CLEARLY better than Sully, and AB and Turner need to be upgraded.

IT-Smart-Crowder-JJ-Amir is the lineup I feel will produce most wins, with KO and Lee coming off the bench. We need to upgrade our backup wings, with Jerebko possibly playing spot minutes at SF (where is is still good, but much less effective than PF or C).

Id Derozan is available, I would do AB+Turner+Sully+Pick for him (works on tradechecker)

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #21 on: August 04, 2015, 12:33:02 PM »

Offline BballTim

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The problem with your statistical analysis is that there's a lot of stats with little analysis.

This is something, unfortunately, that happens a lot on the basketball internet.

  The bigger problem, which happens just as often, is the "the sample size might be too small to draw any reasonable conclusions from, but it's the only one we have so we're basing our discussion on it".

Probably true overall but you can still field some interesting discussions if you acknowledge that.

  Sure, the discussions are interesting, but the acknowledgements are akin to the "I Agree" button people press when they download software when they don't read what they're agreeing to.

  But I digress...

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #22 on: August 04, 2015, 12:57:09 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I looked at the 2014-15 5-man team stats and a few things were interesting (sample size notwithstanding):

-Rondo/Bradley/Green/Sullinger/Whoever were all really good units based on +/-

-IT and Smart were only together for a total of 26 minutes (with Crowder/Jerebko/Olynyk) but were a +17


Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #23 on: August 04, 2015, 01:00:39 PM »

Online BitterJim

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Check this out:
http://www.82games.com/1415/14BOS16.HTM

Thomas-Smart-Crowder-Jerebko-Olynyk lineup spent a ton of time on the floor and destroyed the opponents.

Thomas-Smart-Young-Crowder-Jerebko - also surprisingly effective, even though Young was garbage.

Jerebko works best as PF or Center with IT and Smart setting him up. Given the fact Amir is maybe our best Center at this point, and loves playing with a stretch PF I am going with

IT-Smart-Crowder-JJ-Johnson as our potentially best lineup..

26 minutes is not "a ton of time", and its definitely too small to draw any meaningful conclusions from
I'm bitter.

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2015, 01:08:32 PM »

Offline ahonui06

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I can definitely understand the OP's perspective. I know the "eye test" is a terrible gauge, but Jerebko did bring energy and it seemed the team played better when he was on the court, albeit in limited minutes majority of the time.

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #25 on: August 04, 2015, 01:51:06 PM »

Offline Chris22

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I like IT, Smart, Crowder, Lee, and Johnson.

Some offense, some toughness, and some defense.

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #26 on: August 04, 2015, 02:27:47 PM »

Offline Joe Green

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I looked at the 2014-15 5-man team stats and a few things were interesting (sample size notwithstanding):

-Rondo/Bradley/Green/Sullinger/Whoever were all really good units based on +/-

-IT and Smart were only together for a total of 26 minutes (with Crowder/Jerebko/Olynyk) but were a +17

Dude - check you numbers

IT and Smart were together 228 minutes and we outscored the opposition by 70 points which is excellent (its +11 per 36 minutes)

M. Smart | I. Thomas   BOS   2014-15   21   228.3   453   441   94.0   +22   +58   -.006   +21   +59   +.018   +.012   +5   +1   +.036   +70

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #27 on: August 04, 2015, 03:14:46 PM »

Offline ThePoeticWolf

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This also isn't by the numbers.  You have to look at the fact Jerebko and Olynyk are both guys who have never had full seasons as starters, specially in our system.  Also Olynyk won't be a starter for us, because he's at best a stretch four, not a true center.  He's moved around to easy on the block and not a real great rebounder. 

Starters
Center - Amir Johnson
Power Forward - Jared Sullinger
Small Forward - Jae Crowder
Shooting Guard - Avery Bradley
Point Guard - Marcus Smart

Second Unit
Center - Tyler Zeller
Power Forward - David Lee
Small Forward - Jonas Jerebko
Shooting Guard - Evan Turner
Point Guard - Isaiah Thomas

Odd Outs
Power Forward - Kelly Olynyk,
Power Forward - Jordan Mickey
Small Forward - Perry Jones III (If we fit him on team)
Shooting Guard - James Young
Shooting Guard - R.J. Hunter
Point Guard - Terry Rozier

Personally I think Kelly Olynyk is traded I believe before Evan Turner or Jared Sullinger.  Olynyk has more value with one more year ontop of this year, plus being a stretch forward to center.  Turner I think we need to keep because his versatility playing the 1-3 positions.  Also Jared Sullinger has a greater upside then Kelly Olynyk, also is a better basketball player.  Before comments come on his weight, see if he gets it this year, plus I think this will be his best year. 

Re: Our best lineup - BY THE NUMBERS
« Reply #28 on: August 05, 2015, 08:05:15 AM »

Offline Joe Green

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This also isn't by the numbers.  You have to look at the fact Jerebko and Olynyk are both guys who have never had full seasons as starters, specially in our system.  Also Olynyk won't be a starter for us, because he's at best a stretch four, not a true center.  He's moved around to easy on the block and not a real great rebounder. 

Starters
Center - Amir Johnson
Power Forward - Jared Sullinger
Small Forward - Jae Crowder
Shooting Guard - Avery Bradley
Point Guard - Marcus Smart

Second Unit
Center - Tyler Zeller
Power Forward - David Lee
Small Forward - Jonas Jerebko
Shooting Guard - Evan Turner
Point Guard - Isaiah Thomas

Odd Outs
Power Forward - Kelly Olynyk,
Power Forward - Jordan Mickey
Small Forward - Perry Jones III (If we fit him on team)
Shooting Guard - James Young
Shooting Guard - R.J. Hunter
Point Guard - Terry Rozier

Personally I think Kelly Olynyk is traded I believe before Evan Turner or Jared Sullinger.  Olynyk has more value with one more year ontop of this year, plus being a stretch forward to center.  Turner I think we need to keep because his versatility playing the 1-3 positions.  Also Jared Sullinger has a greater upside then Kelly Olynyk, also is a better basketball player.  Before comments come on his weight, see if he gets it this year, plus I think this will be his best year.

Sorry, but AB is just terrible for team efficiency. Sully is a little better - but if his weight loss doesn't catapault his efficiency, he should also not be starting and maybe let go.

Its not to say they are "Bad Players" as much as they don't fit our system.