I agree that the Turner hate is overblown. That said, if Danny can't pull a 2 for 1, will he consider cutting Turner and just eating his contract?
While he doesn't deserve that based on talent, it could make sense if the C's plan to let Smart handle the ball more this year and if Danny doesn't think he can get anything of value for Turner on the trade market.
Why the heck would he do that? Turner made our team better last year. He went off and traded for David Lee, and signed Amir Johnson, because we're not tanking. We're not committing long-term to guys who won't get us out of the second-round, but we're not trying to lose as we wink and say we're not. The players most likely to be cut to get us to 15 are, in order:
1) Dragic -- virtual certainty, surprised if he makes it to camp
2) PJ3 -- we got a draft pick for taking his contract, and cash to pay for most of it. He gets a chance to earn a roster spot, but he's on the outside looking in.
3) James Young -- a decision has to be made at the end of training camp to pick up his option for next season. Ainge is keeping an eye towards minimizing salary next year. If he looks like he's at least another year away, I would be surprised but not shocked to see him go. We have so many draft picks coming up that we're going to miss on a couple, and if PJ3 beats him out for a roster spot, so be it.
4) Jared Sullinger -- He's much less likely, but if he shows up to camp still out of shape, then Young and PJ3 both have the chance to beat him out for the roster spot. There are 6 bigs on the roster, and many lineups will only have one on the court at a time. I don't expect that this will occur, because I will believe for now that Sullinger is hard at work. But if he's not, he'll give PJ3 and Young the opportunity to pass him.
Turner is not getting cut. If Smart is ready for more ball handling duties, Turner will play less, but he's not getting cut. It's a long season, and injuries will occur -- he'll be needed at some point. The only way ET is released is if he blows out his knee or Achilles in training camp, since he's on an expiring and wouldn't be able to help all season. We are not such a good team that Evan Turner is beneath our talent level.
I still think there's a much greater likelihood that Turner makes the team and two of the the guys you mentioned will get cut (it'll be Dragic and Jones, they aren't cutting Young and Sully) or that Danny makes a consolidating trade.
That said, I think cutting Turner is a possibility if the C's plan to take the ball out of his hands on offense AND Jones shows something in training camp AND Danny can't find any good 2 for 1 trade options around.
That's a lot of ifs, which is why I think it's a long a shot. But we all know Turner is only really useful with the ball in his hands. And if they are going to give Smart the reigns with the first team and IT will handle it when he's on the bench, not only does Turner's value to the team go down, so will likely his play if he has to play off the ball.
And if PJ3 shows he's worth keeping around, Danny may decide that cutting Turner--someone who is not going to be on the team after this year--is the best option they have.
I just don't. The Celtics are clearly making winning a priority this year. Turner helps them win. Would a Marcus Smart with improved ball-handling help them more? Yes. Maybe that means Turner gets some DNP's during the year, but there are 82 games, and Turner will be needed in at least some of them, because injuries happen, especially with players as aggressive as Smart and as small (yet fearless) as IT. Could he be shipped in a 2-for-1? Definitely, and I'm fully on board. Cut -- no way.
Here's a thought experiment: Suppose that it comes down to Turnee, Young, PJ3, and Sully for the final spot. Ainge first will call around the league and see what he can get for any, and will take the best offer, since it preserves assets and someone has to go due to roster crunch. Now suppose that no one bites (it is in fact what we're implicitly suppsosing by saying someone gets released). This means that the trade value for all four players is zero, or even less than zero. Accordingly, they're all valueless assets on the trade market. Therefore you keep the ones that will help your team the most this year, since none of them are getting you anything in the future, as indicated by the lack of interest in a pre-season trade.
In the above, where you're just looking at how does a player help your team on the court, there's no way that Young beats out Turner unless he's been bitten by a radioactive spider. In fact, if Young isn't worth even a second round pick to any team in the league, how do you pick up his year 3 option, which has to be done by the beginning of this season? It makes more sense to decline it. Once you've declined it, it's a clear battle between him and PJ3.
At the same point, an out of shape Sully does not get kept over Turner. In shape Sully is a rotation player, but out of shape Sully is not. He's on an expiring deal, and if he can't stay in shape, you're probably not giving him his QO next summer. There would be so many players in front of him for playing time that it's just serves no purpose to keep him over a useful player. (Again, in shape Sully is not who I'm talking about getting cut -- I stipulate that if he shows up in the fall healthy and having put in the work all summer that he's assured a roster spot, and the C's at least talk to his agent about an extension).
Again, the thought experiment is where these guys all have zero trade value. That means Young still looks clueless on the court and PJ3 is the same guy OKC dumped. It means Sully is hurt and/or out of shape. If they have no trade value, there's a reason, and that's why Turner won't be cut. If they have trade value, there will be a trade. Danny doesn't give away things for free. Maybe discounted, but still a trade.