Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...

[Beat LA]

I appreciate the dialogue here...

I understand fully that there is not some 100%, perfect scenario to predict a player's health. 

But having watched over 30 years' worth of basketball in my lifetime, there is one thing I'd be VERY wary of when it comes to BIG MEN: foot injuries.  I've seen too many that never heal, and become a long-term issue.

Embiid is a HUGE man.  To put all that weight on his feet, well, that's just asking for a problem.  I honestly don't think he'll play much.  Because even if he heals up, it's just a time-bomb waiting to explode again.

There's a difference between a lighter weight player and a man with a big frame.  I remember Michael Jordan's rookie season being plagued by a foot injury (broken if I recall correctly).  But if the Celtics staff thought this was no big deal...I just question the collective wisdom on knowing that a man of Embiid's weight and frame could come back from this.  It's all speculation, but the part I found "slightly alarming" is how the medical team gave the go-ahead on him if available.

This is a new time in NBA basketball.  You simply cannot waste a pick that high on a gamble.  I'd now take the guard or wing that is healthy over the big with a known foot problem.  If he pans out with another team, so be it...  But I'd rather take the safer route and let that be someone else's problem.

I believe that that injury occurred at the beginning of the 85-86 season.  Ironically, because the stress fracture was so hard to detect at the time, during the Celtics-Bulls playoff series in 1987, McHale had his foot examined by their medical staff, only to discover that it was, indeed, a stress fracture.  Kevin then called our 'doctors' and yelled, "my foot's broken!" before hanging up by slamming the phone down.  Ugh.

[wayupnorth]

link to article?

http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)

Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

If you state that in general rookies have a 2% chance of becoming a star what makes you believe Embiid is 40 times more likely to become one? 

Especially, given the injury history leading up to the draft and the fact those injuries have continued into his NBA career. Embiid has yet to log an NBA minute of playing time.

That being said I wouldn't be opposed to trading picks/players for the right package, but I wouldn't be so hasty to trade everything away for a 76ers big man.

If you believe the statistical regressions that just started being used as to predict boom/bust potential, the rookies probabilities are closer to: 1% (star), 20% (starter); Embiid is probably more like 15% star, 40% starter.

That would be more of a common prediction, though, without the health concerns. For Embiid, I'd probably lower starter, increase role player (not listed), and leave start where it is or slightly higher.

Good call...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/

Rozier = 0.7% chance star.  18% chance at being a starter.  50% chance he busts.

Hunter = 0.4% star.  12 % starter.  49% bust.

These guys effectively have less than 1% chance of being stars in this league.  Sure, I have no problem packaging d-league talent for a shot at a real superstar.   If I got word that embiid had a better than 50% chance of recovering fully, I'd trade these mediocre rooks gladly.  We'll be lucky if any of them turn into rotation players.

What a completely asinine article.

Ridiculous.

You are saying this because you don't agree with the conclusion, I assume, not because the article is actually asinine.

That is quite the assumption.

[colincb]

link to article?

http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)

Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

If you state that in general rookies have a 2% chance of becoming a star what makes you believe Embiid is 40 times more likely to become one? 

Especially, given the injury history leading up to the draft and the fact those injuries have continued into his NBA career. Embiid has yet to log an NBA minute of playing time.

That being said I wouldn't be opposed to trading picks/players for the right package, but I wouldn't be so hasty to trade everything away for a 76ers big man.

If you believe the statistical regressions that just started being used as to predict boom/bust potential, the rookies probabilities are closer to: 1% (star), 20% (starter); Embiid is probably more like 15% star, 40% starter.

That would be more of a common prediction, though, without the health concerns. For Embiid, I'd probably lower starter, increase role player (not listed), and leave start where it is or slightly higher.

Good call...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/

Rozier = 0.7% chance star.  18% chance at being a starter.  50% chance he busts.

Hunter = 0.4% star.  12 % starter.  49% bust.

These guys effectively have less than 1% chance of being stars in this league.  Sure, I have no problem packaging d-league talent for a shot at a real superstar.   If I got word that embiid had a better than 50% chance of recovering fully, I'd trade these mediocre rooks gladly.  We'll be lucky if any of them turn into rotation players.

What a completely asinine article.

Ridiculous.

You are saying this because you don't agree with the conclusion, I assume, not because the article is actually asinine.

That is quite the assumption.

Just eyeballing the results, I'd question the report and its assumptions too. Certainly at odds with the players' draft positions and thus the opinions of talent evaluators.  Attending Kentucky seems to be a sure fire way to NBA success.

Right click the image below and select "view image" (or go look at the article).

[D.o.s.]

link to article?

http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)

Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

If you state that in general rookies have a 2% chance of becoming a star what makes you believe Embiid is 40 times more likely to become one? 

Especially, given the injury history leading up to the draft and the fact those injuries have continued into his NBA career. Embiid has yet to log an NBA minute of playing time.

That being said I wouldn't be opposed to trading picks/players for the right package, but I wouldn't be so hasty to trade everything away for a 76ers big man.

If you believe the statistical regressions that just started being used as to predict boom/bust potential, the rookies probabilities are closer to: 1% (star), 20% (starter); Embiid is probably more like 15% star, 40% starter.

That would be more of a common prediction, though, without the health concerns. For Embiid, I'd probably lower starter, increase role player (not listed), and leave start where it is or slightly higher.

Good call...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/

Rozier = 0.7% chance star.  18% chance at being a starter.  50% chance he busts.

Hunter = 0.4% star.  12 % starter.  49% bust.

These guys effectively have less than 1% chance of being stars in this league.  Sure, I have no problem packaging d-league talent for a shot at a real superstar.   If I got word that embiid had a better than 50% chance of recovering fully, I'd trade these mediocre rooks gladly.  We'll be lucky if any of them turn into rotation players.

What a completely asinine article.

Ridiculous.

You are saying this because you don't agree with the conclusion, I assume, not because the article is actually asinine.

That is quite the assumption.

Not if you actually know what asinine means.

You don't have to agree with it -- I'm indifferent to the idea and the methodology -- but it is certainly not asinine.