Author Topic: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...  (Read 14909 times)

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Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2015, 09:49:53 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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link to article?
http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

Quote
If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)
Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)
My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

Wow...

So Rozier has :

* Excellent length and athletic ability
* Above average defense
* Versatile offense (three point range, midrange game, scores at the basket, gets to the line)
* Good ball handling
* Passable PG skills
* Solid Basketball IQ
* Elite motor and work ethic

And you believe he has a 2% chance (being generous) at becoming a superstar.

Yet Joel Embiid has:

* Excellent length and athletic ability
* Good defense
* Versatile offense (post game, midrange jumper, can hit the three)
* Mediocre ball handling
* Poor PG skills (passing, court vision)
* Poor Basketbal IQ
* Questionable motor and work ethic

And you believe he has an 80% chance of becoming a superstar?

Of course, assuming both end up healthy.

Wow. Just wow. 

I wouldn't even have the guts to predict that Wiggins has an 80% chance of becoming a superstar, and he has shown us a LOT more evidence towards this fact than Embiid has.  i'd probably say Wiggins has a 25% chance of becoming franchise player, 45% chance of becoming a superstar, and a 70% chance of becoming a star/All-Star.

Based on the fact that we have no NBA data yet on Embiid (hence higher risk) I'd say Embiid (assuming healthy) has about a 10% chance of becoming a franchise player, a 25% chance of becoming a superstar, and a 50% chance of becoming a star/All-Star.

Question - how does Embiid have a 'poor basketball iq' and a 'questionable motor?'

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #46 on: July 30, 2015, 10:06:24 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Come on! Eddy Lecerte is the man!

I don't necessarily think our doctors are the best or our trainers.    He has been here forever.   I recall Larry's back and McHale's foot.   More  recently KG's knee was an issue.   The one that really bothers me is Reggie Lewis's heart.   The list goes on and on but I do not think the C's medical staff  is anything more than average.   Sullinger's, weight, would not a trainer or the team step in and assist or get him a nutrionist.  It seems we are more reactive than proactive.

To be fair, though, they caught Jeff Green's aneurysm.

And Brandon Roy's knees, which was why we ultimately didn't take him that year.  True, Phoenix has the best medical staff in the business, but don't put down Eddie Lacerte for problems that he had nothing to do with, like Bird's back and McHale's foot.  Lacerte was hired after 86-87 to replace Ray Melchiorre and maybe the team doctor, but don't quote me on that, after that horrible season where our medical staff failed to detect the stress fracture, and then compounded the mistake by telling McHale that it was all in his head.  Those guys were a joke to the medical profession.  What an embarrassment. 

As for Reggie, I thought that it wasn't a heart problem, but a drug one, instead, or am I wrong here?  I can't defend the Sully weight problem (but at least they were right about his back, right?  Lol ;D), obviously, but maybe that's just him, and I only say that because I remember big baby hiring a nutritionist/chef type person, only to fire them a month before the start of the 2011 playoffs, which made him even slower and out of shape, and the result was that he gave us absolutely NOTHING in the postseason that year.  Ugh.   

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #47 on: July 30, 2015, 10:47:12 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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« Last Edit: July 30, 2015, 11:13:06 PM by tarheelsxxiii »
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Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #48 on: July 30, 2015, 11:16:06 PM »

Offline obnoxiousmime

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My thoughts on some of the conversations taking place in this thread:

1) I thought Phoenix was renowned for its training staff, not necessarily the medical staff. I know they are related and obviously both sides work together, but it should be two separate departments. The training staff would ensure players, when healthy, are in good shape and don't get reinjured, with guidance from the medical staff of course.

2) If Philly decides to shop Embiid now it would be selling at the lowest possible point, so I would then suspect their medical team has determined he's a lost cause. We already know the Hornets accused them of not revealing all their medical info on Holiday before that deal, so you have to be very careful dealing with the Sixers. The misinformation coming out about Embiid's injury a few weeks ago was very shady as well.

3) Besides Wiggins and Parker you still had to take Embiid if he was on the board. The potential was just too great and big men are so rare. Even if he never plays you can't really blame the Sixers for taking a shot. Also, two years out of the league isn't a humongous deal in the long-term. Blake missed a year and now nobody remembers it. Should the Clippers have taken someone else? They still are going to benefit from at least 6-8 of years of Blake's career when all is said and done, with a good chunk of it in his prime.

4) Philly will be fine. They still have the swap rights with Sac and the Lakers pick has a good shot of being 4-8. That's a lot of ping pong balls in their favor, even if it's supposed to be a weak draft.

5) The Celtics staff clearing Embiid doesn't mean much. The Sixers could have messed up, sure, but medical science is not an exact thing. There is definitely lots of misinformation put out there before the draft, but I think the Celtics would be trying to get Embiid to fall to them, not the other way around.

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #49 on: July 31, 2015, 12:38:44 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #50 on: July 31, 2015, 12:50:21 AM »

Offline greece66

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delete me, i'm stupid.

Huh?

has happened to me too a couple of times, i made a comment by mistake and then could not delete it.

having said this, i can see the logic behind it (allowing ppl to just delete past comments could lead to all sorts of trouble)

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #51 on: July 31, 2015, 12:54:57 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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My thoughts on some of the conversations taking place in this thread:

1) I thought Phoenix was renowned for its training staff, not necessarily the medical staff. I know they are related and obviously both sides work together, but it should be two separate departments. The training staff would ensure players, when healthy, are in good shape and don't get reinjured, with guidance from the medical staff of course.

2) If Philly decides to shop Embiid now it would be selling at the lowest possible point, so I would then suspect their medical team has determined he's a lost cause. We already know the Hornets accused them of not revealing all their medical info on Holiday before that deal, so you have to be very careful dealing with the Sixers. The misinformation coming out about Embiid's injury a few weeks ago was very shady as well.

3) Besides Wiggins and Parker you still had to take Embiid if he was on the board. The potential was just too great and big men are so rare. Even if he never plays you can't really blame the Sixers for taking a shot. Also, two years out of the league isn't a humongous deal in the long-term. Blake missed a year and now nobody remembers it. Should the Clippers have taken someone else? They still are going to benefit from at least 6-8 of years of Blake's career when all is said and done, with a good chunk of it in his prime.

4) Philly will be fine. They still have the swap rights with Sac and the Lakers pick has a good shot of being 4-8. That's a lot of ping pong balls in their favor, even if it's supposed to be a weak draft.

5) The Celtics staff clearing Embiid doesn't mean much. The Sixers could have messed up, sure, but medical science is not an exact thing. There is definitely lots of misinformation put out there before the draft, but I think the Celtics would be trying to get Embiid to fall to them, not the other way around.

1).  To your point on the Suns, I guess that I never thought of it that way.  What I distinctly remember, though, is that one of the main reasons for their success is that they were the first team to have that cryo-chamber thing that Pierce, KG, and Lebron use.  I read about Michael Redd saying that he and Nash would sit in there for like an hour or so before the game, and for some reason it greatly reduces the wear and tear on your muscles.  The cryo chamber was made to Ainge a few years ago, and he said that the Celtics have one, so, what's the problem?  Did they plug it in or assemble it wrong, or did we just get the defective one, lol ;D?  Was the manual in Korean?  Did they put dry ice from the smoke machine in there by mistake? ;D

2).  While that is true about Holiday, at least he can still play.  I understand why you would want to be cautious in dealing with them in the future (funny, that was always our image ::), lol ;D), but I simply cannot comprehend why everyone is focusing so much on the 76ers in this regard when the true villain, as always ;D, is the Lakers.  Has everyone forgotten how they got Howard for a Bynum who never played a single game for Philadelphia?  The guy was a lemon.  Why is this being overlooked, or is it simply because the lakers can do no wrong in the eyes of the league, which has been their history?  Ridiculous.

3).  Yep, I agree.  It's always difficult to find great big men, but I'd say it's even harder now because the current era is the best one, ever, for point guards.  TP for everything you've said in your post :).

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #52 on: July 31, 2015, 12:56:29 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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delete me, i'm stupid.

Huh?

has happened to me too a couple of times, i made a comment by mistake and then could not delete it.

having said this, i can see the logic behind it (allowing ppl to just delete past comments could lead to all sorts of trouble)

Yeah, who hasn't made the accidental double post (raises hand) ;D?  I just wasn't sure as to what he was referring.

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #53 on: July 31, 2015, 01:12:36 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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link to article?
http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

Quote
If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)
Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)
My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

If you state that in general rookies have a 2% chance of becoming a star what makes you believe Embiid is 40 times more likely to become one? 

Especially, given the injury history leading up to the draft and the fact those injuries have continued into his NBA career. Embiid has yet to log an NBA minute of playing time.

That being said I wouldn't be opposed to trading picks/players for the right package, but I wouldn't be so hasty to trade everything away for a 76ers big man.

If you believe the statistical regressions that just started being used as to predict boom/bust potential, the rookies probabilities are closer to: 1% (star), 20% (starter); Embiid is probably more like 15% star, 40% starter.

That would be more of a common prediction, though, without the health concerns. For Embiid, I'd probably lower starter, increase role player (not listed), and leave start where it is or slightly higher.

Good call...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/

Rozier = 0.7% chance star.  18% chance at being a starter.  50% chance he busts.

Hunter = 0.4% star.  12 % starter.  49% bust.

These guys effectively have less than 1% chance of being stars in this league.  Sure, I have no problem packaging d-league talent for a shot at a real superstar.   If I got word that embiid had a better than 50% chance of recovering fully, I'd trade these mediocre rooks gladly.  We'll be lucky if any of them turn into rotation players.

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #54 on: July 31, 2015, 01:20:14 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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link to article?
http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

Quote
If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)
Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)
My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

Wow...

So Rozier has :

* Excellent length and athletic ability
* Above average defense
* Versatile offense (three point range, midrange game, scores at the basket, gets to the line)
* Good ball handling
* Passable PG skills
* Solid Basketball IQ
* Elite motor and work ethic

And you believe he has a 2% chance (being generous) at becoming a superstar.

Yet Joel Embiid has:

* Excellent length and athletic ability
* Good defense
* Versatile offense (post game, midrange jumper, can hit the three)
* Mediocre ball handling
* Poor PG skills (passing, court vision)
* Poor Basketbal IQ
* Questionable motor and work ethic

And you believe he has an 80% chance of becoming a superstar?

Of course, assuming both end up healthy.

Wow. Just wow. 

I wouldn't even have the guts to predict that Wiggins has an 80% chance of becoming a superstar, and he has shown us a LOT more evidence towards this fact than Embiid has.  i'd probably say Wiggins has a 25% chance of becoming franchise player, 45% chance of becoming a superstar, and a 70% chance of becoming a star/All-Star.

Based on the fact that we have no NBA data yet on Embiid (hence higher risk) I'd say Embiid (assuming healthy) has about a 10% chance of becoming a franchise player, a 25% chance of becoming a superstar, and a 50% chance of becoming a star/All-Star.

Question - how does Embiid have a 'poor basketball iq' and a 'questionable motor?'

An assist to-turnover-ratio of 0.58 is pretty poor even for a center.  That's approaching Javale McGee bad.

Some may disagree, but I see assist-turnover as a pretty good indicator of a players basketball IQ and/or their feel for the game.  Guys who have good basketball IQ tend to have a strong awareness of what's going on around them on the court. This means they are usually:

1) Able to identify when teams are going to try to trap/double them, and to look for an open teammate

2) See when a pass is likely to get picked off / deflected (whether the pass is safe or not)

3) See when a teammate is cutting, and have the ability to make the right play and get them the ball

4) Know what you are capable of, and play within your limits (don't try to force dangrous plays)

To me a poor Assist-Turnover ratio indicates poor decision making skills, a limited ability to understand what's going on around you, an inability to read defense, etc.

I think you'll find that if you look up guys who have an exceptionally low AST:TO ratio (around 0.5 - meaning they average roughly twice as many turnovers as they do assists) you'll find most of those guys are fairly low BBIQ players.

Likewise if you find the guys who have exceptionally high AST:TO numbers, those guys are usually known to be pretty high BBIQ guys.

In the middling ranges it can get blurry, but at the extremes I find it usually holds true.

In Embiid's case from what I've seen he seems to be very turnover prone, doesn't seem to make good decisions with the ball, and seems to often try to play outside of his skill level.  Also often seemed to be lost when playing defense off the ball (obviously, he was effective on the ball).

As for motor / work ethic, see below:
http://articles.philly.com/2015-04-18/sports/61257673_1_joel-embiid-brett-brown-nerlens-noel

Quote
He's a 7-footer who dunks with ease off between-the-legs moves. He's a once-in-a-generation athlete for his size. He has the natural talent to develop into one of the NBA's best players.

But he'll need a good work ethic combined with an ability to stay healthy to turn that potential into results on the court.

"There were times that I wasn't happy," coach Brett Brown said Thursday of Embiid's lack of diligence. "And you know it's been well-documented."

Embiid's work ethic has been questioned by some inside the organization. The whispers ended after the center started doing on-court drills in March.

However, a blow-up with assistant strength and conditioning coach James Davis was one of the reasons Embiid was sent home during a West Coast road trip in December.

After he underwent surgery for a fractured right foot in June, Embiid missed his entire rookie season while rehabilitating his leg.

Early on, the Cameroonian was limited to activities such as using the antigravity treadmill and taking long walks to generate a rapid heart rate. In the process, he became noticeably heavier than the chiseled 250 pounds he carried in his lone season at Kansas.

He has since lost some of the added weight. But another problem was that he wasn't always a willing workout participant, according to sources. He even blew off conditioning drills, one source added.

An altercation with Davis during the West Coast trip, coupled with Brown's wanting him to be in "more of a structured, stable environment," prompted the Sixers to send him home, the sources said.

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #55 on: July 31, 2015, 01:33:29 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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link to article?
http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

Quote
If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)
Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)
My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

If you state that in general rookies have a 2% chance of becoming a star what makes you believe Embiid is 40 times more likely to become one? 

Especially, given the injury history leading up to the draft and the fact those injuries have continued into his NBA career. Embiid has yet to log an NBA minute of playing time.

That being said I wouldn't be opposed to trading picks/players for the right package, but I wouldn't be so hasty to trade everything away for a 76ers big man.

If you believe the statistical regressions that just started being used as to predict boom/bust potential, the rookies probabilities are closer to: 1% (star), 20% (starter); Embiid is probably more like 15% star, 40% starter.

That would be more of a common prediction, though, without the health concerns. For Embiid, I'd probably lower starter, increase role player (not listed), and leave start where it is or slightly higher.

Good call...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/

Rozier = 0.7% chance star.  18% chance at being a starter.  50% chance he busts.

Hunter = 0.4% star.  12 % starter.  49% bust.

These guys effectively have less than 1% chance of being stars in this league.
  Sure, I have no problem packaging d-league talent for a shot at a real superstar.   If I got word that embiid had a better than 50% chance of recovering fully, I'd trade these mediocre rooks gladly.  We'll be lucky if any of them turn into rotation players.

See, the problem I have with such stats is that they seemingly treat each draft as if it was equal to the last one, in terms of talented prospects.  Some years the talent pool is quite deep, while in others there isn't much after the lottery, so to look at them collectively is misleading, imo.  It's like comparing how one class of kids scored on some pointless standardized test to the year before them.  If they performed better, and assuming that the test and/or standards surrounding it have not been altered (which happens all too often), people in the department of education or whatever seem to present these findings as proof that one group of kids is smarter than the other, which is simply not true.  Each class of students, just like each draft class, is different, and should be treated as such, imo, instead of attempting to analyze the odds of success in the draft according to position like in blackjack, because it's more like roulette in this example (dependent vs. independent trials).

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #56 on: July 31, 2015, 01:41:43 AM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Another double post. a;lksdjf. I'm going to make something up anyway..

EDIT: Beat LA, you're a boss, and you've got a special place...

« Last Edit: July 31, 2015, 01:52:13 AM by tarheelsxxiii »
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Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #57 on: July 31, 2015, 01:42:42 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Good call...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/

Rozier = 0.7% chance star.  18% chance at being a starter.  50% chance he busts.

Hunter = 0.4% star.  12 % starter.  49% bust.

These guys effectively have less than 1% chance of being stars in this league.  Sure, I have no problem packaging d-league talent for a shot at a real superstar.   If I got word that embiid had a better than 50% chance of recovering fully, I'd trade these mediocre rooks gladly.  We'll be lucky if any of them turn into rotation players.

All of this being based on statistics, which in turn are based entirely on draft position.

It's a statistical system that works fairly well if you are talking about selecting a random player at a random spot in a said range.  When you are taking about an individual player with individual attributes, then it all falls apart.

For example, the stats would tell you that Sully had less than 20% chance of becoming an NBA starter - yet we all knew how skilled and talented he was from day one, hence why he was expected to go high lottery prior to news of the back issues.

That's the issue with this statistic - it's useful, but only if you use it in the right way.

The statistic is not designed to predict the the probability of a specific/known player becoming X/Y/Z good, in the manner you are trying to use it.  To say "hey, John Doe was drafted at #11, so there is an X% change he's going to be a star" is not an effective use of the statistic. 

The statistic is designed to predict the probability of you drafting a player who is Z/Y/Z good if you are drafting at position #A.  For example, to say "we have the #16 pick this year, so history suggests we have a 50% chance of picking a bust.  We should try to trade up!" is an effective use of the statistic.

For a scientific experiment to be considered conclusive, you need to ensure that there is only one variable - if an apple grows better when placed outside on a crowded street (rather than the fridge) you don't know if the reason why the apple grew better was:

1) Sunlight versus no sunlight
2) Outside temperature versus fridge temperature
3) Less moisture in the air outside vs in the fridge
4) Change in air pressure, etc

Once you know who the player is, the statistics (based on draft position) become to a large degree irrelevant, because you end up with too many variables such as:

* Motor - guys who don't give up on plays are more likely to earn rotation spots, despite skill level
* Work ethic - guys who gym rats are more likely to develop
* Physical - guys with exceptional physical gifts are more likely to become individually dominant
* Basketball IQ - guys with high IQ often become decent rotation players at the very least
* Medical history - many guys with star potential have had careers ruined by injuries
* Team fit - How well does the player compliment his new team-mates / coaches
* Team need - how needed at this player's skills, and hence how likely is he to get minutes?

So, to predict that Rozier has a 50% chance of busting based purely on his draft position, isn't an accurate / realistic use of the statistic.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2015, 02:07:30 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #58 on: July 31, 2015, 01:46:38 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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It's all kind of subjective.  I have very little expectations of our rookies and doubt any become starters.  I'd have no qualms trading the whole lot of em for a shot at healthy Embiid.  Given that we tried to give up twice as much for the #9 pick, I don't feel too awkward suggesting it. 

But if there's a better than 50% chance that Embiid's career is over, I guess it would be a bit crazy to trade for him.  Nobody knows what his actual situation entails though. 

Re: Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...
« Reply #59 on: July 31, 2015, 01:58:23 AM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Good call...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/

Rozier = 0.7% chance star.  18% chance at being a starter.  50% chance he busts.

Hunter = 0.4% star.  12 % starter.  49% bust.

These guys effectively have less than 1% chance of being stars in this league.  Sure, I have no problem packaging d-league talent for a shot at a real superstar.   If I got word that embiid had a better than 50% chance of recovering fully, I'd trade these mediocre rooks gladly.  We'll be lucky if any of them turn into rotation players.

All of this being based on statistics, which in turn are based entirely on draft position.

It's a statistical system that works fairly well if you are talking about selecting a random player at a random spot in a said range.  When you are taking about an individual player with individual attributes, then it all falls apart.

For example, the stats would tell you that Sully had less than 20% chance of becoming an NBA starter - yet we all knew how skilled and talented he was from day one, hence why he was expected to go high lottery prior to news of the back issues.

That's the issue with this statistic - it's useful, but only if you use it in the right way.

The statistic is not designed to predict how good a specific player is likely to become based on where he was drafted.

The statistic is designed to predict the probability of getting a player of a certain caliber based if selecting one random player out of a group/range of players in specific draft range.

For a scientific experiment to be considered conclusive, you need to ensure that there is only one variable - if an apple grows better when placed outside on a crowded street (rather than the fridge) you don't know if the reason why the apple grew better was:

1) Sunlight versus no sunlight
2) Outside temperature versus fridge temperature
3) Less moisture in the air outside vs in the fridge
4) Change in air pressure, etc

This statistical analysis works the same way.  For it to give some useful feedback, you need to ensure that the ONLY bit of information that's variable is the draft range the player was taken in - the player must be otherwise selected randomly.

Once you know who the player is, the statistical predictability (based on draft position) becomes skewed because suddenly you know all these things about the player (work ethic, athletic ability, fit to the team, likelihood of getting playing time, medical history, being selected higher or lower than expected based on team fit/need, being selected higher or lower than expected based on medical issues, etc) which can all impact on the probability of that player succeeding.

So, to say Rozier has a 50% chance of busting based purely on what draft position he was taken at is quite simply not a realistic use of the statistic.

However if you're going in to the draft, and you don't yet know who you're going to draft (you don't now who will be available, etc), and you say "we are drafting at #16, so historically we have about a 50% of drafting a bust.  It's worth trying to move up to improve our odds" - that would be a realistic use of this statistic.

This is a pre-draft prediction, based on all the variables stated above. To my knowledge, and correct me if I'm wrong, I don't think predicted draft range is even a variable that is included in the model, but maybe it was in earlier models? This is new to the 2015 class, and that's likely why you'll see Dakari Johnson at #6 on the board.
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