Joel Embiid - Celtics Medical Staff. Slightly Alarming...

[ahonui06]

link to article?

http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)

Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

If you state that in general rookies have a 2% chance of becoming a star what makes you believe Embiid is 40 times more likely to become one? 

Especially, given the injury history leading up to the draft and the fact those injuries have continued into his NBA career. Embiid has yet to log an NBA minute of playing time.

That being said I wouldn't be opposed to trading picks/players for the right package, but I wouldn't be so hasty to trade everything away for a 76ers big man.

[oldtype]

link to article?

http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)

Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

Question wasn't necessarily about Embiid, but about whether you'd be willing to trade all our rookies for a late lotto pick(10~12?), given that that's supposedly the going rate for Embiid.

[tarheelsxxiii]

link to article?

http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)

Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

If you state that in general rookies have a 2% chance of becoming a star what makes you believe Embiid is 40 times more likely to become one? 

Especially, given the injury history leading up to the draft and the fact those injuries have continued into his NBA career. Embiid has yet to log an NBA minute of playing time.

That being said I wouldn't be opposed to trading picks/players for the right package, but I wouldn't be so hasty to trade everything away for a 76ers big man.

If you believe the statistical regressions that just started being used as to predict boom/bust potential, the rookies probabilities are closer to: 1% (star), 20% (starter); Embiid is probably more like 15% star, 40% starter.

That would be more of a common prediction, though, without the health concerns. For Embiid, I'd probably lower starter, increase role player (not listed), and leave start where it is or slightly higher.

[hwangjini_1]

link to article?

http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)

Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

If you state that in general rookies have a 2% chance of becoming a star what makes you believe Embiid is 40 times more likely to become one? 

Especially, given the injury history leading up to the draft and the fact those injuries have continued into his NBA career. Embiid has yet to log an NBA minute of playing time.

That being said I wouldn't be opposed to trading picks/players for the right package, but I wouldn't be so hasty to trade everything away for a 76ers big man.

If you believe the statistical regressions that just started being used as to predict boom/bust potential, the rookies probabilities are closer to: 1% (star), 20% (starter); Embiid is probably more like 15% star, 40% starter.

That would be more of a common prediction, though, without the health concerns. For Embiid, I'd probably lower starter, increase role player (not listed), and leave start where it is or slightly higher.

i would be very interested in seeing these regressions and what they are based upon. next, just curious but did you replicate the regressions by plugging in data for embiid? if so, what data did you imput?

[tarheelsxxiii]

link to article?

http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)

Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

If you state that in general rookies have a 2% chance of becoming a star what makes you believe Embiid is 40 times more likely to become one? 

Especially, given the injury history leading up to the draft and the fact those injuries have continued into his NBA career. Embiid has yet to log an NBA minute of playing time.

That being said I wouldn't be opposed to trading picks/players for the right package, but I wouldn't be so hasty to trade everything away for a 76ers big man.

If you believe the statistical regressions that just started being used as to predict boom/bust potential, the rookies probabilities are closer to: 1% (star), 20% (starter); Embiid is probably more like 15% star, 40% starter.

That would be more of a common prediction, though, without the health concerns. For Embiid, I'd probably lower starter, increase role player (not listed), and leave start where it is or slightly higher.

i would be very interested in seeing these regressions and what they are based upon. next, just curious but did you replicate the regressions by plugging in data for embiid? if so, what data did you imput?

I posted this elsewhere.

It's interesting. Their regression model includes age, height and weight, college statistics, top 100 ranking (per Ford), and current team evaluation. They claim their model is novel (and better) because they include some (?) regressor that takes into account the opportunity they will get to play, if I'm not mistaken. Their explanation of this is kinda vague, though, and not spelled out for the layperson.

Beyond that, for a statistics website (not specific to bball), one would hope to see variance accounted for using their model. But, it isn't reported. So while I like the idea, but we don't appear to be anywhere near this level of analysis / prediction, yet. Not sure if we will be, given so many other variables that we either wouldn't be able to collect data one or quantify (e.g., personality traits, bball IQ). Cool nonetheless.

If interested, here is the link: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/

[vjcsmoke]

All 3 of our picks for Embiid?  Now?  No way.  And I definitely wouldn't offer the package we offered for the rights to Winslow.

Embiid is damaged goods.  He could well be the next Greg Oden.  No thanks.

If we got him in for a personal checkup one more time by our medical staff and they cleared him now, I would offer a highly protected 1st rounder for Embiid, but nothing earlier than that.  Honestly I'd much rather trade for Nerlens Noel than Embiid.

[crimson_stallion]

I don't know what the success rate of bone grafts are.  I just read an article about embiid's worth now that he's heading for a second surgery.  It polled folks around the league and the determination was that philly could still get a (protected) 1st for him or late lotto pick. Heck of a blow to his value but teams would still take a risk on him even now.  Hypothetically If philly offered embiid for our three rookies (who will likely spend the entire year in dleague), you'd have to look over his medical reports very clearly, but it's probably a risk worth taking.

If Philly offered Embiid (now) for our three rookies, I'd hang up the phone. 

All three of our rookies have (to my knowledge) have a pretty solid medical history, and I believe at least one of them (probably Rozier) is going to to make a contribution to the team this year.

I'd have no hesitation offering them the Mav's pick however - maybe throw Sully in there too since he's likely gone after this season anyway, and he'd actually be a great compliment for Noel.

With Noel's lack of offensive versatility, and Sully's lack of defensive versatility (plus the fact that both guys are solid rebounders) they'd make a pretty nice front court for years to come.

[crimson_stallion]

Honestly I'd much rather trade for Nerlens Noel than Embiid.

I think that would be the conclusion of about 90% of people in the league right now

[ahonui06]

Honestly I'd much rather trade for Nerlens Noel than Embiid.

I think that would be the conclusion of about 90% of people in the league right now

This. At least Noel proved l he could come back from a serious injury. He looked like a quality player last year for Philadelphia.

Embiid is about to miss his first 2 seasons because of injuries.

[Rosco917]

Trading for Embiid is like someone handing you a grenade with no pin in it.

[Granath]

http://www.libertyballers.com/2015/7/30/9071341/celtics-medically-cleared-joel-embiid-before-2014-draft

I recognize there is no fool-proof system out there, knowing what a human body will do.  But this kinda scared me - that the Celtics medical team really didn't see the bigger picture of the damage.

I don't think this is "scary". At some point the reward outweighs the risk. While I don't share Lar33's sentiment that there's an 80% chance that Embiid becomes a superstar if healthy (he was exceptionally raw coming out of college), if he were there at #6 it would have been hard to pass him up. He would have been both literally and figuratively head and shoulders above the other candidates.

Would I have drafted Embiid - even knowing there was a chance of a chronic injury - over Smart back then? Hell yes. Would I trade Smaht for Embiid now? Hell no. Many of us lamented that the Celtics got screwed over in the lottery yet again two years ago. In hindsight, maybe we really didn't and that slipping in the lottery was the best thing that could have happened.

[chambers]

Quote from: LarBrd33 on Yesterday at 08:54:25 PM

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

80%?
In reality it's like 10-20% lol.

Exaggerations and opinions aside, he's having another navicular operation.
Ilgauskas had a few of these until they finally fixed it. Michael Jordan had one and Yao Ming had a few.
Yao was a monster and much heavier than Embid, but he did get on the floor.

What will happen in a worst case, is that they'll give him reconstructive surgery like they gave Ilgauskas. ie a bone graft.

Embid's problem is that because he keeps growing, his feet are still growing and the navicular bones are still unstable since the first surgery.
At some point, they should be able to get him on the floor for at least a few seasons. The problem is that like Ziggy, you never know when you'll get another fracture.

So they'll probably try this surgery, get him on the floor and see what he can do. If this fails, they'll take the reconstructive route which will sideline him for another year.

So yeah, bit of an unknown, but he's certainly not on a Greg Oden level where one leg is longer than the other. The media these days means this is getting hyped up beyond compare- the topic of Philly's rebuilding is so heated/polarizing that it always garners clicks and internet traffic.

He should be okay, it just may not be until he finally has a bone graft and has stopped growing. You never really know though. ie Yao Ming's was too painful to continue playing, but he never had reconstructive surgery.

One guy to keep an eye on his Julius Randle. He had a screw in his foot and then broke his leg. He's going to be banging around a lot in the paint and we could be hearing about him a lot in the near future- for all the wrong reasons.

Anyway, this Embid thing won't be settled until he has a bone graft. Then the 76ers have to pray that his back stays fine. (which it should because he's not putting stress it on it while still growing). Until then it's basically:




edit: hell yeah we would have taken him with the 6th pick.

[crimson_stallion]

link to article?

http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-76ers/where-does-joel-embiid-rank-among-sixers-assets-now

If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he?s worth ?a real protected first.? When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: ?No.? Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he?d go ?back end of the lottery, maybe? for Embiid. He called it a ?dice roll? for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it?s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It?s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

I'll say it's hard to have an opinion on this, though as Philly has been pretty weird about disclosing information about Embiid's situation.  For several weeks they claimed he hadn't rebroken the bone... and now suddenly reports are coming out that he did indeed refracture it.  So you'd have to expect a very very thorough examination of Embiid and his medical history before making any offer at all.  But assuming there's a better than 50% chance he comes back 100% next season, I'd trade Rozier + Hunter + Mickey for him.   Those guys will all spend the bulk of their time in dleague this year anyways.  Combining all of them with the #15 pick wasn't enough to move up to #9.... So the three of them alone for Embiid sounds like a win for Boston (presuming Embiid had a chance of recovery and Philly was even open to such a sell-low proposition). 

I don't see Philly attempting to sell low on Embiid right now, so let's not spend too much time debating about whether it's too much to give up for him.  It's just a hypothetical and there is so much we don't know.  Who knows what else Philly is blatantly lying about.

If his value is indeed a "real protected first," why are we even talking about our current rookies? We have plenty of those to offer.

(All hypothetical of course, I think it's unlikely that Philly trades him or anyone trades for him at this point.)

Just saying what I'd be comfortable doing.  I imagine Embiid could still fetch a lotto pick.   None of our rookies are worth lotto picks.

It's a moot point, because I don't see Embiid getting traded and I wouldn't do a trade without first getting assurance that there was a better than 50% chance he'd come back 100%... and that information isn't public.  Who knows what's going on there... apparently Philly has just been lying to the public about all sorts of stuff.  Crazy.

So in effect, you'd trade all four of our rookies (three if we assume Thornton is basically a zero) for a late lotto pick? (let's say 10-14 range)

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

Wow...

So Rozier has :

* Excellent length and athletic ability
* Above average defense
* Versatile offense (three point range, midrange game, scores at the basket, gets to the line)
* Good ball handling
* Passable PG skills
* Solid Basketball IQ
* Elite motor and work ethic

And you believe he has a 2% chance (being generous) at becoming a superstar.

Yet Joel Embiid has:

* Excellent length and athletic ability
* Good defense
* Versatile offense (post game, midrange jumper, can hit the three)
* Mediocre ball handling
* Poor PG skills (passing, court vision)
* Poor Basketbal IQ
* Questionable motor and work ethic

And you believe he has an 80% chance of becoming a superstar?

Of course, assuming both end up healthy.

Wow. Just wow. 

I wouldn't even have the guts to predict that Wiggins has an 80% chance of becoming a superstar, and he has shown us a LOT more evidence towards this fact than Embiid has.  i'd probably say Wiggins has a 25% chance of becoming franchise player, 45% chance of becoming a superstar, and a 70% chance of becoming a star/All-Star.

Based on the fact that we have no NBA data yet on Embiid (hence higher risk) I'd say Embiid (assuming healthy) has about a 10% chance of becoming a franchise player, a 25% chance of becoming a superstar, and a 50% chance of becoming a star/All-Star.

[greece66]

Quote from: LarBrd33 on Yesterday at 08:54:25 PM

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

80%?
In reality it's like 10-20% lol.

Exaggerations and opinions aside, he's having another navicular operation.
Ilgauskas had a few of these until they finally fixed it. Michael Jordan had one and Yao Ming had a few.
Yao was a monster and much heavier than Embid, but he did get on the floor.

What will happen in a worst case, is that they'll give him reconstructive surgery like they gave Ilgauskas. ie a bone graft.

Embid's problem is that because he keeps growing, his feet are still growing and the navicular bones are still unstable since the first surgery.
At some point, they should be able to get him on the floor for at least a few seasons. The problem is that like Ziggy, you never know when you'll get another fracture.

So they'll probably try this surgery, get him on the floor and see what he can do. If this fails, they'll take the reconstructive route which will sideline him for another year.

So yeah, bit of an unknown, but he's certainly not on a Greg Oden level where one leg is longer than the other. The media these days means this is getting hyped up beyond compare- the topic of Philly's rebuilding is so heated/polarizing that it always garners clicks and internet traffic.

He should be okay, it just may not be until he finally has a bone graft and has stopped growing. You never really know though. ie Yao Ming's was too painful to continue playing, but he never had reconstructive surgery.

One guy to keep an eye on his Julius Randle. He had a screw in his foot and then broke his leg. He's going to be banging around a lot in the paint and we could be hearing about him a lot in the near future- for all the wrong reasons.

Anyway, this Embid thing won't be settled until he has a bone graft. Then the 76ers have to pray that his back stays fine. (which it should because he's not putting stress it on it while still growing). Until then it's basically:




edit: hell yeah we would have taken him with the 6th pick.

THIS.

Great post.

[crimson_stallion]

Quote from: LarBrd33 on Yesterday at 08:54:25 PM

My rationalization:

Each rookie individually probably has a 2% chance of becoming a superstar (that's generous).

Healthy embiid probably has a 80% chance of being a superstar.

If there's a better than 50% chance of embiid being healthy, I have no problem giving up these mediocre young guys with no star potential for a shot at a superstar.   I trust that ainge agrees or he wouldn't have offered an ever greater package for #9.

80%?
In reality it's like 10-20% lol.

Exaggerations and opinions aside, he's having another navicular operation.
Ilgauskas had a few of these until they finally fixed it. Michael Jordan had one and Yao Ming had a few.
Yao was a monster and much heavier than Embid, but he did get on the floor.

What will happen in a worst case, is that they'll give him reconstructive surgery like they gave Ilgauskas. ie a bone graft.

Embid's problem is that because he keeps growing, his feet are still growing and the navicular bones are still unstable since the first surgery.
At some point, they should be able to get him on the floor for at least a few seasons. The problem is that like Ziggy, you never know when you'll get another fracture.

So they'll probably try this surgery, get him on the floor and see what he can do. If this fails, they'll take the reconstructive route which will sideline him for another year.

So yeah, bit of an unknown, but he's certainly not on a Greg Oden level where one leg is longer than the other. The media these days means this is getting hyped up beyond compare- the topic of Philly's rebuilding is so heated/polarizing that it always garners clicks and internet traffic.

He should be okay, it just may not be until he finally has a bone graft and has stopped growing. You never really know though. ie Yao Ming's was too painful to continue playing, but he never had reconstructive surgery.

One guy to keep an eye on his Julius Randle. He had a screw in his foot and then broke his leg. He's going to be banging around a lot in the paint and we could be hearing about him a lot in the near future- for all the wrong reasons.

Anyway, this Embid thing won't be settled until he has a bone graft. Then the 76ers have to pray that his back stays fine. (which it should because he's not putting stress it on it while still growing). Until then it's basically:




edit: hell yeah we would have taken him with the 6th pick.

Another question with Embiid is, if the injury doesn't destroy his career (which for his sake, I hope is the case) how will it impact his game?  How much of the hype around Embiid's Superstar potential upside was based around his physical tools?   

If he suddenly loses a lot of those physical tools (mobility, the need to play below the rim) then does he suddenly drop from a top 3 pick to a top 10 or top 15 pick?

Does his ceiling (with that reduced mobility) suddenly drop from "Hakeem Olajuwon" to "Greg Monroe"?