Author Topic: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)  (Read 3587 times)

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Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« on: July 30, 2015, 11:21:22 AM »

Offline Jon

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Both here and elsewhere on the Internet there's lots of speculations about the C's starters and rotation.  And this got me thinking: when trying to project a rotation, is this team trying to win at all costs or are they trying to develop some of the young guys? Because I'd argue that if they're really just trying to win the most games possible, in a close game where foul trouble/injuries come into place NONE of the rookies and most of the young guys should play.

For instance, people have been trying to speculate who is going to be the backup SG: Rozier, Hunter, or Young? But to that I'd ask, why play any of them? There's 96 minutes between the two guards spots. Considering most teams play their stars 35 mpg+, there's really no good reason not to play Smart, Bradley, and Thomas somewhere around 32 mpg and leave no time for anyone else.

So while I'm not necessarily committed to the actual players, I'd ask, if we're really trying to win is there a reason to go much beyond a 9 man rotation on most nights if we are really trying to get the best players on the court?

PG: Smart 32, Thomas 16
SG: Bradley 32, Thomas 16
SF: Crowder 28; Jerbenko or Turner 20
PF: Lee 28; Sullinger 20
C: Johnson 28; Olynyk or Zeller 20

And truly, in a playoff run, we could knock the big man rotation more or less down to 3 players (with a 4th getting spot minutes).

Again, I'm not saying others won't get spot minutes. But is there really any reason to go any deeper than this if our end goal is truly to win the maximum amount of games?

Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2015, 11:40:32 AM »

Offline TheTruthFot18

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PG: Smart 32, Thomas 16
SG: Bradley 32, Thomas 16
SF: Crowder 28; Jerbenko or Turner 20
PF: Lee 28; Sullinger 20
C: Johnson 28; Olynyk or Zeller 20

I like that rotation. Guys who deserve minutes get it and bench players are the bench players. I hope a Jerebko/KO combo can turn into what Lamar Odom was in LA.
The Nets will finish with the worst record and the Celtics will end up with the 4th pick.

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Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2015, 12:35:29 PM »

Offline Jon

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I guess part of the impetus of this post is that I'm also somewhat irritated by some projections I see out there that either a) act like this is Little League where everyone has to get minutes or b) doesn't take the actual amount of minutes available into consideration and generally talk about 10-12 players all getting a shot at contributing (i.e. general comments about Mickey being this major contributor without discussing how he's going to even be on the active roster with 6 guys in front of him).

Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2015, 12:40:52 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Again, I'm not saying others won't get spot minutes. But is there really any reason to go any deeper than this if our end goal is truly to win the maximum amount of games?

The answer is to this is no, but I think that the Celtics front office (and some posters) would be happy winning, say, 41 games instead of 43 if there was more of an emphasis on developing our younger talent in real life NBA situations. That's just projecting, and I don't necessarily feel that way (I would rather see the team win 35 games if it meant I'd not have to watch David Lee or Evan Turner, for example), but I think there's a fairly standard logical path from one to the other which can manifest itself, as you say, in a bit of a Little League scenario.

Lamar Odom was about a million times better than Jerebko and Olynyk, though. Probably still could be, if he could get whatever is going on in his personal life sorted out.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2015, 12:41:38 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The team appears to be set on fighting for the middle, so I expect the veterans to play.

Right now, I'd project the rotation as such:


Smart (28) / Thomas (28)
Bradley (30) / Crowder (20)
Turner (28) / Jerebko (12)
Lee (28) / Sully (20)
Amir (26) / Zeller (20)

No room for Olynyk, Rozier, Mickey, Hunter, Young.  PJ3 will be cut before the season starts.


You could cut Jerebko out of the rotation to make it a 9-man, but I think Stevens will run with 10 and throw in Olynyk and one or two of the younger guys in spot minutes here and there.

There are too many vets on the roster for the team to really focus much on youth development aside from Smart.

That said, none of the players on the team right now is really good enough to play more than 30 minutes a game or so.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2015, 01:03:18 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Loading up on minutes for only 10 or even 8 players is fine for playoffs but in the grind of a full season best to play 12 guys a game (and alternate last 3). Have to keep guys feeling fresh and not over fatigued. Pushing guys too far is easy way to get injuries and lower efficiency. On top of that the locker room could suffer. If you are busting your butt in practice and never get playing time you may lose hope with the team and stop practicing with effort thus dragging down the team. If a guy has a great practice he deserves a few minutes at least once a week. Remember this is their lively hood if they don't get some on the court time they lose value. If you mess with any man's earnings there will be a lot of anemostity and tension with the team. This is why guys like Bass got minutes last year. Great guy, very good in practice. He needed to get minutes in this contract year to stay a great guy and keep good team morale. You have to keep in mind these guys care and want to play. If you take away playing time they stop caring and trying, some even ask for a trade.

Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2015, 01:10:04 PM »

Offline JBcat

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The team appears to be set on fighting for the middle, so I expect the veterans to play.

Right now, I'd project the rotation as such:


Smart (28) / Thomas (28)
Bradley (30) / Crowder (20)
Turner (28) / Jerebko (12)
Lee (28) / Sully (20)
Amir (26) / Zeller (20)

No room for Olynyk, Rozier, Mickey, Hunter, Young.  PJ3 will be cut before the season starts.


You could cut Jerebko out of the rotation to make it a 9-man, but I think Stevens will run with 10 and throw in Olynyk and one or two of the younger guys in spot minutes here and there.

There are too many vets on the roster for the team to really focus much on youth development aside from Smart.

That said, none of the players on the team right now is really good enough to play more than 30 minutes a game or so.

I could see this.  Although Lee hasn't played starting minutes in over a year, and is in his 30s so I'm a little wary there.  I could have sworn I read somewhere that Lee's optimal minutes might be around 20 MPG because of past injuries.  In any case I think KO will be sprinkled in a little more depending on matchups.  Plus things never go according to plan with injuries that will open up some playing time.

Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2015, 01:17:45 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Although Lee hasn't played starting minutes in over a year, and is in his 30s so I'm a little wary there.  I could have sworn I read somewhere that Lee's optimal minutes might be around 20 MPG because of past injuries.  In any case I think KO will be sprinkled in a little more depending on matchups.  Plus things never go according to plan with injuries that will open up some playing time.

I wouldn't be surprised if Lee starts out the season on the Kris Humphries plan, playing relatively few minutes and then gradually working his way into the starting rotation.  By the end of the season he'll be playing 25-30 minutes a night.

KO will get opportunities depending on matchups and injuries, but there really aren't enough minutes for Lee, Amir, Sully, Olynyk, and Zeller to all get quality minutes.  Preference will be given to the guys Ainge is showcasing for a trade and who will help the team win more games in the present.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2015, 01:21:23 PM »

Offline D Dub

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One of the things I really like about this team's outlook, training camp is going to be really competitive.  I don't think any other NBA team has so many roles up for grabs going into the season, or the shear number of capable players vying for them.  That's old school right there, and I think it'll result in a very gritty team. 

Here's how I think it'll shake out, organized into Brad's four-role system instead of the traditional five---

Points:
Smart (32)  Thomas (28)  Rozier (5)

Wings:
Bradley (24)   Turner (18)

Swings:
Crowder (28)   Jerebko (14)   PJ3 (14)

Bigs:
Lee (28)   Johnson (25)  Sully (20)   Zeller (4)

Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2015, 01:26:26 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I'm really curious why people are so high on PJ3 that they think he's not only going to make the team but actually earn playing time?

Who's gonna get cut so he can make the team?
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2015, 02:22:40 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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I see a number of folks have Kelly Olynyk completely out of the rotation.

I guess it's possible, but I'll be highly surprised if Coach Brad doesn't find a role for Kelly. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2015, 02:27:26 PM »

Offline ahonui06

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Minutes will be given to the players who work hardest in practice and produce in games. Simple.

Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2015, 02:29:20 PM »

Offline max215

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Smart (32) / Thomas (30)
Bradley (26) / Turner (14)
Crowder (28) / Jerebko (14) / Turner (4)
Lee (26) / Sully (26) / KO (10)
Amir (28) / Zeller (22) / KO (6)

Spot minutes to Rozier and Hunter.
Isaiah, you were lightning in a bottle.

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Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2015, 02:30:44 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I see a number of folks have Kelly Olynyk completely out of the rotation.

I guess it's possible, but I'll be highly surprised if Coach Brad doesn't find a role for Kelly.

Maybe, but the question is -- who sits out instead?

Unless Brad's gonna play 5 bigs 20 minutes a game, which seems unlikely, somebody has to sit or play sparingly.

This is part of why I'm miffed about the Lee and Amir acquisitions, coupled with the Jerebko re-signing.

Any one of them could have taken Bass's minutes and been a valuable contributor, but adding all three creates a time crunch that will probably end up with one or more of our younger guys sitting a lot.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Playing to Win (as it pertains to minutes)
« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2015, 02:32:27 PM »

Offline ahonui06

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I see a number of folks have Kelly Olynyk completely out of the rotation.

I guess it's possible, but I'll be highly surprised if Coach Brad doesn't find a role for Kelly.

Maybe, but the question is -- who sits out instead?

Unless Brad's gonna play 5 bigs 20 minutes a game, which seems unlikely, somebody has to sit or play sparingly.

I think CBS might let Olynyk take some of Zeller's minutes. I have a feeling that Zeller will end up being the odd man out this season.