Author Topic: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer  (Read 39451 times)

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Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #60 on: July 28, 2015, 04:35:22 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #61 on: July 28, 2015, 04:38:54 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).

Exactly.  People acting like the Hornets not accepting the deal means that the picks are worthless need to look at the history of the Hornets under Jordan and realize that they *might* not be the best team to base value off of
I'm bitter.

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #62 on: July 28, 2015, 04:41:25 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

I think he's saying a similar package (or "considerably less") that included Brooklyn's 2016 pick (or Dallas' future pick), not that they would take just the pick straight up
I'm bitter.

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #63 on: July 28, 2015, 05:01:00 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

I think he's saying a similar package (or "considerably less") that included Brooklyn's 2016 pick (or Dallas' future pick), not that they would take just the pick straight up

That is correct. We can control the Nets best/easiest way of getting in cheap talent the next couple of years on team friendly deals. That is worth a ton to them. They are in basketball purgatory. They can't tank, but have no avenues to improve barring something highly improbable (like a second round pick turning into a superstar)

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #64 on: July 28, 2015, 05:35:33 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

I think he's saying a similar package (or "considerably less") that included Brooklyn's 2016 pick (or Dallas' future pick), not that they would take just the pick straight up

That is correct. We can control the Nets best/easiest way of getting in cheap talent the next couple of years on team friendly deals. That is worth a ton to them. They are in basketball purgatory. They can't tank, but have no avenues to improve barring something highly improbable (like a second round pick turning into a superstar)
Well then, this is pure unadulterated, speculation.  But judging by the fact that NJ gave us all those picks to begin with, I am going to guess that they don't value mediocre picks very much either.

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #65 on: July 28, 2015, 05:38:33 PM »

Offline Smitty77

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The reason I point that out continuously around here is that many have an attitude that building from the middle is not only more noble, respectable, and enjoyable than building from the bottom via the draft, but it is also less messy and difficult.




My point has always been that building from the middle is, yes, "more noble, respectable, and enjoyable" but also that it's probably about equally "messy and difficult" as building from the bottom.

I believe it's "messy and difficult" either way.  I'd rather watch a team that's "noble, respectable, and enjoyable" while waiting for that big break that may or may not come.

I think a lot of pro-tankers like myself are operating under the assumption that if Ainge had a few early picks he wouldn't totally mess them up like Charlotte has. The Celtics have shown themselves to be a pretty solid organization and Ainge's draft record, while not perfect, should be considered at least above average.

According to many, he whiffed on his last two lottery picks, though.

Banks 2.0 anyone?

So, let's go back in time and look at the entire trade with Memphis.  We traded our #16 and our #20 picks which ended up being Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones for Memphis's #13 and #27 which were Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins.  We WON that trade HANDS DOWN!!!!  We likely would NOT have won the World Championship without Kendrick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #66 on: July 28, 2015, 05:41:36 PM »

Offline max215

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

I think he's saying a similar package (or "considerably less") that included Brooklyn's 2016 pick (or Dallas' future pick), not that they would take just the pick straight up

That is correct. We can control the Nets best/easiest way of getting in cheap talent the next couple of years on team friendly deals. That is worth a ton to them. They are in basketball purgatory. They can't tank, but have no avenues to improve barring something highly improbable (like a second round pick turning into a superstar)
Well then, this is pure unadulterated, speculation.  But judging by the fact that NJ gave us all those picks to begin with, I am going to guess that they don't value mediocre picks very much either.

When we made the trade Brooklyn thought they'd be a contender for the next 4-5 years and those picks would be in the late 20's. Obviously, they were wrong. If Brooklyn knew how valuable the picks would actually be, they wouldn't have traded them.
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Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #67 on: July 28, 2015, 05:42:22 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

I think he's saying a similar package (or "considerably less") that included Brooklyn's 2016 pick (or Dallas' future pick), not that they would take just the pick straight up

That is correct. We can control the Nets best/easiest way of getting in cheap talent the next couple of years on team friendly deals. That is worth a ton to them. They are in basketball purgatory. They can't tank, but have no avenues to improve barring something highly improbable (like a second round pick turning into a superstar)
Well then, this is pure unadulterated, speculation.  But judging by the fact that NJ gave us all those picks to begin with, I am going to guess that they don't value mediocre picks very much either.

You seriously don't think they deeply regret that trade? Do you think in a million years they would give up that many first rounders for one year of paul pierce and kg and a second round playoff loss? Their owner is so disillusioned he is trying to sell the team. Also if these top 10 picks are so valuable, what are you going to say when we get a top 10 pick from Brooklyn next year?

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #68 on: July 28, 2015, 05:43:10 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

I think he's saying a similar package (or "considerably less") that included Brooklyn's 2016 pick (or Dallas' future pick), not that they would take just the pick straight up

That is correct. We can control the Nets best/easiest way of getting in cheap talent the next couple of years on team friendly deals. That is worth a ton to them. They are in basketball purgatory. They can't tank, but have no avenues to improve barring something highly improbable (like a second round pick turning into a superstar)
Well then, this is pure unadulterated, speculation.  But judging by the fact that NJ gave us all those picks to begin with, I am going to guess that they don't value mediocre picks very much either.

When we made the trade Brooklyn thought they'd be a contender for the next 4-5 years and those picks would be in the late 20's. Obviously, they were wrong. If Brooklyn knew how valuable the picks would actually be, they wouldn't have traded them.

Pretty much exactly what I said a second earlier :).

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #69 on: July 28, 2015, 05:43:10 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Holy crap that's an offer... I wonder what kind of haul we were offering to get #15.

Just goes to show you the difference in value between #16 and #9.   

Crazy to think that with a couple weeks left in the season, we were essentially tied with Charlotte for the 9th worst record.   The last 11 games of the season made a drastic change.  We ended up making the playoffs and getting swept, but it's ok because it helped us recruit Amir Johnson for 12 mil a year.  I'm not sure we would have been able to get Amir Johnson for 12 mil per year had we not gotten swept in the playoffs after stumbling in with a below .500 record... so it all worked out.

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #70 on: July 28, 2015, 05:44:02 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Holy crap that's an offer... I wonder what kind of haul we were offering to get #15.

Chris Babb

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #71 on: July 28, 2015, 06:16:39 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

I think he's saying a similar package (or "considerably less") that included Brooklyn's 2016 pick (or Dallas' future pick), not that they would take just the pick straight up

That is correct. We can control the Nets best/easiest way of getting in cheap talent the next couple of years on team friendly deals. That is worth a ton to them. They are in basketball purgatory. They can't tank, but have no avenues to improve barring something highly improbable (like a second round pick turning into a superstar)
Well then, this is pure unadulterated, speculation.  But judging by the fact that NJ gave us all those picks to begin with, I am going to guess that they don't value mediocre picks very much either.

When we made the trade Brooklyn thought they'd be a contender for the next 4-5 years and those picks would be in the late 20's. Obviously, they were wrong. If Brooklyn knew how valuable the picks would actually be, they wouldn't have traded them.
Well let's not downplay the fact that NJ are complete idiots for thinking that KG and PP would make them contenders for the next 4-5 years.  KG was already a shell of himself when the trade was made.

Do they regret the trade?  I would say probably, since they ended up with nothing to show for it.  But that doesn't change my view of how they view draft picks.  They essentially gave up four picks, assuming the risk, because that is not how they do business.  They likely feel that they can sustain with or without picks.

And as for how much we won the trade by, that is still to be determined.  So far we got one outside of the lottery that turned into James Young (not exactly a splashing win).  The pick in 2016 is not guaranteed to be in the lottery either.  So we'll see I suppose.

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #72 on: July 28, 2015, 06:29:46 PM »

Offline max215

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

I think he's saying a similar package (or "considerably less") that included Brooklyn's 2016 pick (or Dallas' future pick), not that they would take just the pick straight up

That is correct. We can control the Nets best/easiest way of getting in cheap talent the next couple of years on team friendly deals. That is worth a ton to them. They are in basketball purgatory. They can't tank, but have no avenues to improve barring something highly improbable (like a second round pick turning into a superstar)
Well then, this is pure unadulterated, speculation.  But judging by the fact that NJ gave us all those picks to begin with, I am going to guess that they don't value mediocre picks very much either.

When we made the trade Brooklyn thought they'd be a contender for the next 4-5 years and those picks would be in the late 20's. Obviously, they were wrong. If Brooklyn knew how valuable the picks would actually be, they wouldn't have traded them.

Pretty much exactly what I said a second earlier :).

Great minds
Isaiah, you were lightning in a bottle.

DKC Clippers

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #73 on: July 28, 2015, 06:33:41 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

I think he's saying a similar package (or "considerably less") that included Brooklyn's 2016 pick (or Dallas' future pick), not that they would take just the pick straight up

That is correct. We can control the Nets best/easiest way of getting in cheap talent the next couple of years on team friendly deals. That is worth a ton to them. They are in basketball purgatory. They can't tank, but have no avenues to improve barring something highly improbable (like a second round pick turning into a superstar)
Well then, this is pure unadulterated, speculation.  But judging by the fact that NJ gave us all those picks to begin with, I am going to guess that they don't value mediocre picks very much either.

When we made the trade Brooklyn thought they'd be a contender for the next 4-5 years and those picks would be in the late 20's. Obviously, they were wrong. If Brooklyn knew how valuable the picks would actually be, they wouldn't have traded them.

Pretty much exactly what I said a second earlier :).

Great minds

think alike

we did it again!!!!!!

Re: Lowe - Excerpt from Hornets article on Celtics' draft day offer
« Reply #74 on: July 28, 2015, 06:34:39 PM »

Offline max215

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What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I'd argue GMs worrying about their immediate job security undervalue 1st round picks far more than fans overvalue them.

Seriosuly, there's no way you can look at Charlotte's "we have to do this now" offseason and think it makes any sense from a basketball standpoint. They're trying to get good enough to sell some tickets, there is no path to contention there.

What this story shows, more than anything, is that fans greatly overvalue the first round picks as assets.  The fact that two team passed should be definitive proof.  Anything below the lottery is not very much.  And while the New Jersey pick is a wild card, you probably take the known (at #9) over the unknown anyway.  That pick could well be out of the lottery.

No choosing Kaminsky is another thing entirely.

I think it just shows that Charlotte under values them, probably because they have made such poor ones.
Something is worth what people will pay for it.  Or in this case, the value of something can be judged by what others are willing to give you for it. 

We know of the Charlotte scenario.  And we can logically surmise that Miami also said (or would have said) no based on how much they valued Winslow.  And how do we know that DA started with Charlotte and not earlier in the draft?  So it very likely isn't just one team that said no.

And as I was saying before, non-lottery picks are simply a crap shoot and most often turn into very little. Take a look at our own team, which is full of mid first round picks and tell me whether you would package them for the chance at a star.  How many lop-sided trade proposals am I going to read from Celtic fan that involves our collection of mediocore players for a star?  Way too many.  Our fans propose these because whether they want to admit it or not, they are lopsided in our favor.

So ultimately, we have no idea whether Winslow will become a star.  But one star (or borderline star) is worth an infinite number of JAGs (Just Another Guy).

When you start getting higher than 9 the value does change and we would possibly start looking at drafting other players. I think everyone would trade 4 middle round first round picks for Karl Towns. Perhaps everyone would also trade 4 middle first round picks for Okafor or Russel.

However, the consensus I have read seems to be that a lot of the GM's in Charlotte's position would have taken that trade. I actually think there is probably a 30% chance they still could have gotten Frank Kaminsky at 15. We can't use one notoriously stubborn (and also just flat out bad) owners refusal of our package to mean that the the rest of the owners in the league would act the same for the same situation.

I would bet a very sizeable amount of money in fact, if we were offering Brooklyn one of their picks back and they were selecting 9th they would take considerably less (same with Dallas).
Not sure what you are saying here but if you mean, NJ would give us #9 for one of their future first round picks, then I say no way in Hades.  The #9 from last year, even ignoring the fact that Winslow was there is worth more than either of the future NJ picks.  Why give away a top 10 pick now for the chance at a to 10 pick in the future?  Makes no sense.

I think he's saying a similar package (or "considerably less") that included Brooklyn's 2016 pick (or Dallas' future pick), not that they would take just the pick straight up

That is correct. We can control the Nets best/easiest way of getting in cheap talent the next couple of years on team friendly deals. That is worth a ton to them. They are in basketball purgatory. They can't tank, but have no avenues to improve barring something highly improbable (like a second round pick turning into a superstar)
Well then, this is pure unadulterated, speculation.  But judging by the fact that NJ gave us all those picks to begin with, I am going to guess that they don't value mediocre picks very much either.

When we made the trade Brooklyn thought they'd be a contender for the next 4-5 years and those picks would be in the late 20's. Obviously, they were wrong. If Brooklyn knew how valuable the picks would actually be, they wouldn't have traded them.
Well let's not downplay the fact that NJ are complete idiots for thinking that KG and PP would make them contenders for the next 4-5 years.  KG was already a shell of himself when the trade was made.

Do they regret the trade?  I would say probably, since they ended up with nothing to show for it.  But that doesn't change my view of how they view draft picks.  They essentially gave up four picks, assuming the risk, because that is not how they do business.  They likely feel that they can sustain with or without picks.

And as for how much we won the trade by, that is still to be determined.  So far we got one outside of the lottery that turned into James Young (not exactly a splashing win).  The pick in 2016 is not guaranteed to be in the lottery either.  So we'll see I suppose.

I agree that King & Co. are idiots, but if you think they're idiots as well, then why would you suggest that their valuation of future picks are at all accurate?
Isaiah, you were lightning in a bottle.

DKC Clippers