Author Topic: Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016  (Read 3499 times)

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Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016
« on: July 28, 2015, 04:04:59 AM »

Offline colincb

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Worth a read if you follow cap issues. Basically, the 2016 class is OK, but there is going to be huge amounts of cash chasing talent which will result in inflation. 2017 is the better crop. I suspect that Cs already figured this out in the way they structured Johnson, Lee, and Jerebko contracts. If a free agent comes up in 2016, Cs can jettison them. If not, they keep them until 2017.

I'd say there is a good chance that Danny's going to wait the market out myself until the excess cash starts to dry up.  As some are aware, we and other cap savvy teams got screwed the way the cap was handled under the new TV contract giving the dopes like Billy King a get out of jail card, so it may take 2-3 years before the dumb money gets spent.

http://hoopshype.com/2015/07/19/the-great-big-myth-of-free-agency-2016/

Story is by Bobby Marks, an ex-assistant GM for the Nets who I believe was their cap guru like Mike Zarren for the Cs. Along with Larry Coon, Marks is good to follow for info on cap and contracts especially during this free agent season. Tweets a lot and is very complimentary of the Cs cap management.

https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42

Re: Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016
« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2015, 08:38:01 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Yeah.  Could be another year like this one.  At the same time, C's will have a LOT of money, really to spend on just 2-3 players if they desire.  Currently the C's have 9 players under contract for next season at a shade under $34 million, not counting Jerebko and Johnson.  They also have 3 1st-round picks.  If we project those picks at the same positions their teams picked last year, they'd have 12 roster spots allocated to players making $38.4 million.  The cap was most recently projected to be in the $89 million range, but that was before this year's cap came in several million high.  Based on 5% revenue growth (the NBA has been outpacing that the last few years, so that's conservative) plus the new money from the TV deal, I project the cap to be over $95 million.  The Celtics could have $57 million in cap room to spend on 3 players (although hopefully a bit less because those Nets and Mavs picks get better).  If they kept Johnson and Jerebko, they'd have $40 million to spend on one player.  They'd have $31 million to spend on one guy just to reach the salary floor.

That's funny money.  The Celtics have almost managed their cap too well.  But if Durant and Al Horford want to play together, for instance, that can happen here.  Some people are upset that we're spinning our wheels for another year, but if this team can win 50 games (not saying it can, just saying "if") and get at least another round into the playoffs, Ainge will have the money to go to two top free agents and say "Come join this 50-win team and turn us into a championship team."  And maybe it will work.  And if it doesn't, I guess they just sign a couple more players to Amir Johnson contracts and try again the next year, when the free agent class is loads better, they have even more cap room despite still having 12 players under contract, and hopefully some of the young guys like Smart are good enough to be a real draw on their own.

Re: Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2015, 08:46:05 AM »

Offline mef730

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To be fair, there was a time at which 2016 was supposed to be the end all/be all of free agent years, but so many players unexpectedly signed extensions this year that next year is less important now. The summer of LeBron/Love/Durant/etc. is now just the summer of Durant.

Mike

Re: Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016
« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2015, 10:01:54 AM »

Offline saltlover

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To be fair, there was a time at which 2016 was supposed to be the end all/be all of free agent years, but so many players unexpectedly signed extensions this year that next year is less important now. The summer of LeBron/Love/Durant/etc. is now just the summer of Durant.

Mike

LeBron will still be there in 2016.  The top of the free agent class in 2016 is arguably better.  But 2017's class has a broader amount of elite talent.  Here's hoping if there is a new CBA that no amnesty opportunity comes with it.

Re: Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016
« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2015, 10:09:29 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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The best thing about this is that Brooklyn will struggle to turn their ship around as they probably will not be able to get any even quasi-stars to come to brooklyn.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016
« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2015, 12:24:03 PM »

Offline Forza Juventus

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There will be a lockout before the 2017 free agency period
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Re: Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2015, 11:44:54 AM »

Offline mef730

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To be fair, there was a time at which 2016 was supposed to be the end all/be all of free agent years, but so many players unexpectedly signed extensions this year that next year is less important now. The summer of LeBron/Love/Durant/etc. is now just the summer of Durant.

Mike

LeBron will still be there in 2016.  The top of the free agent class in 2016 is arguably better.  But 2017's class has a broader amount of elite talent.  Here's hoping if there is a new CBA that no amnesty opportunity comes with it.

But I doubt he's going anywhere.

Mike

Re: Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2015, 12:12:09 PM »

Offline biggs

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What is the point of having cap space when no one wants to come here? Maybe to absorb contracts via trades?

I hope Marcus Smart has a very long career, because at the pace we are going, he will be 40 when we are finally contending.  ;D

I think the best case scenario is the trend of players wanting to "go home." (Ala LeAntichrist & LMA)

Maybe when Nerlen's contract us up in Philly, he gets homesick and tired of losing, and signs with us.  ;D
Truuuuuuuuuth!

Re: Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2015, 01:09:34 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The best thing about this is that Brooklyn will struggle to turn their ship around as they probably will not be able to get any even quasi-stars to come to brooklyn.

All it takes for them to kill our 2017 and 2018 picks from them is spend a bunch of money on, say, Brandon Jennings, Demar Derozan and Chandler Parsons.
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Re: Hoopshype - The great big myth of Free Agency 2016
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2015, 01:18:51 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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To be fair, there was a time at which 2016 was supposed to be the end all/be all of free agent years, but so many players unexpectedly signed extensions this year that next year is less important now. The summer of LeBron/Love/Durant/etc. is now just the summer of Durant.

Mike
Agreed 2016 could have been huge with LeBron/Love/Davis/Butler/Harris and more. Darn things really went bad for us this offseason and now FA looks weak next year. Signing AJ was like punting the ball in FA attempts.