Author Topic: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?  (Read 5158 times)

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When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« on: July 22, 2015, 07:51:29 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Was thinking about the typical wait period between contention when teams head into a rebuild, so I decided to go on down the list of teams in the league and ask, "When was the last time they were a contender?"

Methodology isn't sophisticated, typically I counted a season with a top seed, over 50 wins, and significant results in the playoffs as contention.  Feel free to disagree with my choices.  :)

Years since contention in parentheses.

Hawks - 2015 (0)
Cavs - 2015 (0)
Bulls - 2012 (3)
Raptors - Never (20)
Wizards - 1979 (36)
Bucks - 2001 (14)
Celtics - 2012 (3)
Nets - 2003 (12)
Pacers - 2014 (1)
Heat - 2014 (1)
Hornets / Bobcats - Never (11)
Pistons - 2008 (7)
Magic - 2010 (5)
76ers - 2001 (14)
Knicks - 2013 (2)
Warriors - 2015 (0)
Rockets - 2015 (0)
Clippers - 2015 (0)
Blazers - 2014 (1)
Grizzlies - 2015 (0)
Spurs - 2015 (0)
Mavs - 2011 (4)
Pelicans / Hornets - 2008 (7)
Thunder - 2014 (1)
Suns - 2010 (5)
Jazz - 2010 (5)
Nuggets - 2013 (2)
Kings - 2004 (11)
Lakers - 2012 (3)
Timberwolves - 2004 (11)


By my count, 23 of the 30 teams did not seriously contend for a title, or even a trip to the Finals, last year.

Of those 23 teams, the average number of years spent toiling in mediocrity was 7.78.

Wizards fans take the cake with 36 years spent watching a team that has no real hope of going far in the playoffs.
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Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2015, 09:32:10 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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What have teams like the Wizards and Raptors done to go decades without fielding a really competitive team?   Bad luck?   Gross incompetence?  How do we avoid that outcome?
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2015, 09:56:14 PM »

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What have teams like the Wizards and Raptors done to go decades without fielding a really competitive team?   Bad luck?   Gross incompetence?  How do we avoid that outcome?
Gross incompetence. Wasted multiple opportunities to build a contender.

Not something to be worried when you have strong ownership and front office like the Celtics do.

Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2015, 10:03:24 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Same story for the sixers,  Nets,  and bucks?  The wolves and Kings are pretty obviously a mess.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2015, 10:06:56 PM »

Offline oldtype

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Think the definition of contention here could use a little tweaking. While the Knicks may have been a 2-seed in 2013, I don't think anyone thought they had any realistic chance of winning the title.


Great words from a great man

Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2015, 10:24:20 PM »

Offline Sketch5

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What have teams like the Wizards and Raptors done to go decades without fielding a really competitive team?  Bad luck?   Gross incompetence?  How do we avoid that outcome?

With the Raptors it's Canada, hard to get guys to want to play for them. They had a good opportunity with Carter and McGrady, and then again with Bosh. But failed to capitalize on it.

Wizards had Webber,Chaney, Strickland, Howard, even God(look it up), but fell apart again. Then Jordan happened.

Bobcats/Hornets....Jordan again.

Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2015, 10:25:57 PM »

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Same story for the sixers,  Nets,  and bucks?  The wolves and Kings are pretty obviously a mess.

Sixers -- Iverson was difficult to rebuild around after that 2001 team fell apart. Team had a bunch of bad contracts due to bad management (Billy King) which hurt them further. They had a pretty good team after Iverson left built around Iggy. Took a chance on Elton Brand coming off a bad injury. If Elton Brand had of gotten back to his pre-injury form, that Sixers team would've been a title contender. Did not happen though. Brand's bad contract hurt them for a few years. Took another high risk option on A.Bynum which didn't work out and opted for a full rebuild. On good path to be a title contender in the future.

So I'd say Philly was bad management early on. Then bad luck.

Now have started to right the ship.

Nets -- they were a title contender until Kenyon Martin left. Struggled to replace his interior defense. Tried to retool on the run around Vince Carter. Failed to find that next piece to put them back amongst the elite. Blew up the team. Started to rebuild. Tried to fast-track the rebuild in free agency but missed most of their targets. Got Joe Johnson. Then sold off future draft picks but choose the wrong players. Players on decline (G.Wallace, P.Pierce, K.Garnett). On a road to nowhere. Same bad management with Billy King here again.

I forget why Kenyon Martin left NJ. Contract dispute? Did they not want to give him a max contract? Or were they were worried his body would fall apart? Unsure. Can't remember the reasons. If it was health, fair enough. Proven right. If it was about money, they shot themselves in the foot and lost a title contender. Nobody pushed that 2004 title-winning Pistons team than the NJ Nets and that was with J-Kidd playing through a knee injury (micro-fracture surgery).

After that, I thought they did a so-so job for several years. Did a good job getting Vince and Krstic but a bad job putting supporting casts around their stars and failed to make a move to fix their faulty interior defense. Numerous management mistakes in recent years. Clearly bad management in recent times (Billy King). 

Bucks -- had title contender opportunity in 2001 but George Karl went nuts and screwed that whole team up. So bad management yes. Yo-yo-ed around for a few years. Had another opportunity (early stages) to build a title contender around Bogut-Skiles-Jennings but blew all their cap space on middle of the road veterans (Gooden, Maggette, Salmons). Bad mangement again. Been falling around for a few years. Finally look to be on a decent path again but it is unclear whether it is a title contender path or not yet.

Bucks GM is the same GM that screwed up in Washington for several years. Ernie Grunfeld. Had those Washington teams with all-offense no-defense. Then those Washington teams with all those knuckleheads / immature guys. Screwed up a lot in Milwaukee until recently as well. Should have been kicked out of NBA long ago. Bad GM.

Billy King and Ernie Grunfeld common factors here.

Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2015, 10:29:06 PM »

Offline MJohnnyboy

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Same story for the sixers,  Nets,  and bucks?  The wolves and Kings are pretty obviously a mess.

Sixers -- Iverson was difficult to rebuild around after that 2001 team fell apart. Team had a bunch of bad contracts due to bad management (Billy King) which hurt them further. They had a pretty good team after him built around Iggy. Took a chance on Elton Brand coming off a bad injury. If Elton Brand had of gotten back to his pre-injury form, that Sixers team would've been a title contender. Did not happen though. Brand's bad contract hurt them for a few years. Took another high risk option on A.Bynum which didn't work out and opted for a full rebuild. On good path to be a title contender in the future.

So I'd say Philly was bad management early on. Then bad luck.

Now have started to right the ship.

Nets -- they were a title contender until Kenyon Martin left. Struggled to replace his interior defense. Tried to retool on the run around Vince Carter. Failed to find that next piece to put them back amongst the elite. Blew up the team. Started to rebuild. Tried to fast-track the rebuild in free agency but missed most of their targets. Got Joe Johnson. Then sold off future draft picks but choose the wrong players. Players on decline (G.Wallace, P.Pierce, K.Garnett). On a road to nowhere. Same bad management with Billy King here again.

I forget why Kenyon Martin left NJ. Contract dispute? Did they not want to give him a max contract? Or were they were worried his body would fall apart? Unsure. Can't remember the reasons. If it was health, fair enough. Proven right. If it was about money, they shot themselves in the foot and lost a title contender. Nobody pushed that 2004 title-winning Pistons team than the NJ Nets and that was with J-Kidd playing through a knee injury (micro-fracture surgery).

After that, I thought they did a so-so job for several years. Did a good job getting Vince and Krstic but a bad job putting supporting casts around their stars and failed to make a move to fix their faulty interior defense. Numerous management mistakes in recent years. Clearly bad management (Billy King). 

Bucks -- had title contender opportunity in 2001 but George Karl went nuts and screwed that whole team up. So bad management yes. Yo-yo-ed around for a few years. Had another opportunity (early stages) to build a title contender around Bogut-Skiles-Jennings but blew all their cap space on middle of the road veterans (Gooden, Maggette, Salmons). Bad mangement again. Been falling around for a few years. Finally look to be on a decent path again but it is unclear whether it is a title contender path or not yet.

Bucks GM is the same GM that screwed up in Washington for several years. Ernie Grunfeld. Had those Washington teams with all-offense no-defense. Then those Washington teams with all those knuckleheads / immature guys. Screwed up a lot in Milwaukee until recently as well. Should have been kicked out of NBA long ago. Bad GM.

Don't forget the Sixers swung for the fences when they traded for Bynum in 2012. Had Bynum given a crap and played like the all star he was in Lakerland with Philly, there's no telling how good they could have been. Bynum was the go-to-guy they desperately needed, but unfortunately had the maturity of a 12-year-old. Kinda feel bad that he burned out on the Sixers.

Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2015, 11:49:18 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Think the definition of contention here could use a little tweaking. While the Knicks may have been a 2-seed in 2013, I don't think anyone thought they had any realistic chance of winning the title.

Yeah, that's fair.  I didn't want to spend too much time figuring out strict criteria.  You could argue with some of my selections pretty easily.

The Nuggets won 57 games a few years ago.  Were they a contender?


I'm focusing less on the "chance to win a title" aspect of being a contender and more on "having a plausible chance of making the Finals" aspect of it.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2015, 11:51:35 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Bucks GM is the same GM that screwed up in Washington for several years. Ernie Grunfeld. Had those Washington teams with all-offense no-defense. Then those Washington teams with all those knuckleheads / immature guys. Screwed up a lot in Milwaukee until recently as well. Should have been kicked out of NBA long ago. Bad GM.

Billy King and Ernie Grunfeld common factors here.

John Hammond is the GM of the Bucks.

Grunfeld was the Bucks GM for a few years at the end of the 90s / early 2000s after being the GM of the Knicks.  He's still the GM of the Wiz.



I guess the question, then, is how long have some well-managed teams had to wait between title contenders?  Or is defining "good management" too difficult here because it's so results-driven (i.e. if you don't build a contender soon enough, you're a "bad GM")?
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2015, 12:31:13 PM »

Offline Gainesville Celtic

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really interesting post... even putting aside the inexact methodology.

a few things:

-- i wonder, i don't ask this rhetorically i really wonder, if NBA teams do this sort of analysis to learn from other teams' past mistakes. I don't mean like "don't hire Ernie Grunfeld or Billy King" but substantive type stuff to avoid.

-- for example WAS was a very good team for 3-4 years (2004-08), maybe just outside of your "contention" range. Do teams go back and look at the moves they made or didn't make to get better?

-- Of course 3 of those years they were led by Arenas (he made the 3rd, 3rd and 2nd All-NBA teams), then he missed most of the next 2 seasons w/ a knee injury. Wizards panicked and dealt the #5 pick (missing out on Rubio, Steph Curry, DeRozan, Lawson, Teague, etc.) for Mike Miller and Randy Foye... do teams look at moves like this and learn from them?

-- it's often overlooked, but it'd be fascinating to see how much a +/- 3gms meant to ceratin teams vis-a-vis seeding in the playoffs, the matchup they got and how much differnece that might ahve meant by meeting a Lebron team in 1st round and getting swept vs. meeting them in the conf. finals when they're less fresh and maybe taking them to 6 games... and how that colors our perecption of a team.

-- i'd be interested in not just the droughts but the total # of teams that were "true contenders" each year. During the Jordan years it felt like 1.... last year it felt like 6-7 at one point, then 4-5 when the playoffs began (i.e. POR and OKC got wrecked w/ injuries).

-- on that point, I think folks differ on what they'd like to see from their team if they're not a "true contender".... do you want to be current-day DAL (winning 50 games, but not really contending), ATL circa late 2000s (good team, took us to 7 in our title year; constantly improving but still not contending), PHI circa now (strip it down to the foundation and build over a 6 year period, where you' are a HORRIBLE team for 4-5 of those, then still might top out at an 8 seed?)... and on and on lots of possiblities. Maybe it comes down to hope -- which is alas subjective and changing...
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Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2015, 12:32:46 PM »

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Bucks GM is the same GM that screwed up in Washington for several years. Ernie Grunfeld. Had those Washington teams with all-offense no-defense. Then those Washington teams with all those knuckleheads / immature guys. Screwed up a lot in Milwaukee until recently as well. Should have been kicked out of NBA long ago. Bad GM.

Billy King and Ernie Grunfeld common factors here.

John Hammond is the GM of the Bucks.

Grunfeld was the Bucks GM for a few years at the end of the 90s / early 2000s after being the GM of the Knicks.  He's still the GM of the Wiz.


Ah, got confused there. Thank you.

I guess the question, then, is how long have some well-managed teams had to wait between title contenders?  Or is defining "good management" too difficult here because it's so results-driven (i.e. if you don't build a contender soon enough, you're a "bad GM")?

Defining good management is usually easy enough.

Teams built with an understanding of what wins championships = (1) defense & rebounding (2) teamwork (3) sharing the basketball (4) value and utilization of depth

Quality of playing staff personnel decisions - draft, free agency, trades.

Quality of non-playing staff (coaches) personnel decisions -- very important to watch out for GMs who scapegoat their head coaches in order to save their own hide. These guys generally repeat their actions throughout their careers and quit when the going gets tough and blame things on others instead of striving for constructive solutions - which can sometimes be firing the coach but not nearly as often as firings happen.

Cap management.

Front offices who will stand up to players and say "no" to them. Like when a player demands a trade. A weak front office capitulates (like Bryan Colangelo in Phoenix with Joe Johnson or every Orlando GM ever = Shaq forcing out a head coach, Penny ousting another head coach, Tracy McGrady trade demand, Dwight getting SVG fired and another trade demand. Ever star player in Orlando's history pushes around their front office because they have a weak owner who hires weak GMs which is a shame because the owner is an otherwise very good and likeable owner). A strong front office has the backbone to refuse the trade demand (like LAL with Kobe Bryant). This gives a very clear indication whether your GM has a backbone or not.

Long term plan -- whatever type of plan it is. Commitment to it. Full rebuild. Building through draft (OKC, Philly). Developing young talent (Utah & Milwaukee currently). Retooling on the run while trying to stay competitive. Trade (asset collection) based strategies (Bad Boy Pistons, Morey, Ainge now?). Free agency based strategy (Pat Riley in 2008-2010 leading to 4 straight finals and two titles).

Big believer in how a man handles adversity tells you a lot about his character. Same for GMs. You need strength of character. Some GMs have it. Many don't (player trade demands, scapegoating coaches, admitting mistakes). 

The capacity to admit you were wrong. That the plan/decision you made did not work and that you have to move on. Bad GMs (like Bryan Colangelo) will refuse to admit their mistakes (Bargnani) and keep hammering away at their first idea to the detriment of their team (stopping team from moving forward, eventually causing Bosh to leave and forcing team into a rebuild). Good GMs know when to move on from the decision (Joe Dumars with Darko Milicic) and move in a new direction.

Also important to see a GM keep strong believe in initial evaluations. It should take a lot for a GM to change his opinion otherwise there was something wrong with the initial process that led him to that opinion in the first place. So a team giving up on a lotto pick (like Sacramento with Thomas Robinson and Stauskas) too quickly is a red flag. GMs who change their mind quickly and often is a sign of bad decision-making process at point of origin for initial decision.

GMs can and will make mistakes. Admitting from them, learning from them and fixing them is the sign of a top GM.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2015, 12:48:04 PM by Who »

Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2015, 12:41:01 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Maybe most people, or possibly anyone, won't agree with me on this, but I think the Wizards were in contention last year. In my opinion they would have beat Atlanta if it were not for the Wall injury. Wall would have also given Cleveland tons of fits in the Finals serving as a nightmare matchup for a beatup Kyrie. Nene and Gortat could have been serviceable to keep Mosgov and Thompson off the glass. Porter and Pierce could have at least slightly annoyed Lebron for spots with Beal able to provide some decent secondary offense.

While the Cavs have everyone mentioning their injuries last year, I feel like people completely ignore the roll the other teams injuries played in their roll to the finals. Korver and Carrol's injuries really decimated the Hawks and took away the best starting 5 in the game. Wall is right up there with Irving and was battling injuries right up through the playoffs.

Related, I am really sad Pierce left Washington. I feel like with another year of growth from Porter and Beal they would have been a lot of fun to watch this season.

Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2015, 01:30:55 PM »

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Ownership is very important as well. It starts at the top with your owner. Then down to your GM. To your head coach. To your players. Four levels of an organization. All layers have to be run at a high level to put a Championship team together.

Owner is the first step.

You need someone strong, with a vision and a commitment to winning a Championship. Not all owners are committed to winning a championship. They would be happy to win one but it is not their first priority and it is not what drives them. Those owners are driven by their profit and loss sheet. They want to win enough games to make the playoffs in order to keep the fans engaged (spending money) and get extra revenue. And then there is Donald Sterling who stood out by his lonesome happy to build 20-30 win teams on basement salaries and make his money that way.

You can have different types of owners. From a hands-off type like Bill Davidson to an active and engaged type like Mark Cuban and everything in between. High quality owners generally share some traits though.

Strong owners give their GMs the responsibility & authority to make decisions. If a GM is not the primary decision maker, that is a very bad sign (Mitch Kupchack in LAL since Jerry Buss died). If an owner makes decisions above the GMs head (Jim Dolan over Donnie Walsh in NYC), that is a bad sign. A GM should be the lead decision maker. Interference of any kind with the GM's authority / freedom to make decisions is a sign a bad owner.

Strong owners are willing to take big risks. Bad owners shy away from risky strategies and settle for low risk / low return plans. Strong owners take big risks to get big returns (whether it is in free agency or trades ... financial risks ... difficult personalities).

Strong owners hold their front office accountable. That means getting rid of someone who is ineffective at their job instead of letting him stay around for years longer than he should wrecking the team (Wolves owner bad at this, Magic owner bad at this).

Strong owners are willing to pay the luxury tax for a title contender.

Strong owners create stability. They do not overreact to everything around them. They put things in place and give key personnel the time and authority to be successful in their tasks. If they are not successful, they hold them accountable.

------------------------------

It's like a company.

(1) Your owner is your CEO. It's his job to decide the long term path (vision) of an organization.
(2) Your GM is your upper management. It is their job to make medium-to-long term plans to turn that vision into a reality. How to put together the coaching and playing staff.
(3) Your coach is like lower management. They do the short term / immediate plans. They take the resources they have (the players) and try to find the most effective way to utilize those resources.
(4) Players are the front line workers. They are the ones that do the deeds.

Four layers working in synchronization. All functioning at a high level.

That is a Championship caliber organization.

----------------------------------------------------

It is not just the GM. The GM has to have the support of a strong owner and the quality of a top coach & the performance of the talent he has put together.

Four separate layers to a top class winning organization.

----------------------------------------------------

The Boston Celtics already have a proven Championship winning ownership group and front office led by Danny Ainge. Their head coach is young & very promising and hopefully will continue to develop into one of best head coaches in the league.

The infrastructure the Celtics already have in place here is amongst the best in the league.

There is usually only 3-6 teams that are Championship caliber organizations (owner, FO, coach). Boston is one of those teams. Dallas. Miami. Golden State. Probably Houston. Boston's infrastructure puts them up there with the best run teams in the league.

Re: When Was the Last Time Each Team Was A Contender?
« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2015, 01:48:59 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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There is usually only 3-6 teams that are Championship caliber organizations (owner, FO, coach). Boston is one of those teams. Dallas. Miami. Golden State. Probably Houston. Boston's infrastructure puts them up there with the best run teams in the league.

The remarkable thing about Golden State is that they had none of those things in place just a few years ago.
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