Sixers have to hope that because Embiid is still a young man growing into his body, his bones will become stronger in the future.
Thing is, even if Embiid is a total bust, the Sixers still have two center prospects better than any prospects the Celts currently have, plus a fairly highly touted combo-forward prospect overseas.
You're over-rating Noel and Saric. Noel's a defensive big who's a long way from being a passable offensive player. Saric was a third tier draftee in 2014 with a number of flaws including being a tweener swing-forward who is not a great shooter. As far as Saric's defense, being a Euro doesn't bode well for the NBA. Okafor's probably destined for a number of ASGs, but his obvious flaws (defensive reaction time, FT shooting) will keep him from being a transcendent player. A rich man's Al Jefferson looks like his ceiling.
Their future picks are nothing special, but for their own which they'll earn by being as bad as they've been constructed. Their cap room is redundant and who is going to want to go to a tanking team? Years away from being years away.
Noel would already be a passable offensive player if Brett Brown just told him to stop shooting jump shots. He's an elite finisher and good enough at the FT line to ward off the hack-a strategy.
Okafor is going to suck for multiple years defensively, but he's got a huge standing reach and the potential with Noel to maximize what should be his strength(bigger centers who would pin down Noel) while having a guy cover for his deficiencies(Noel's weak side shot blocking). Or they could both stagnate... But your vastly undervaluing them. Noel's got transcendent defensive potential.
And the Lakers picks, the Sac swaps, and a possible unprotected Sac pick the year after Boogie leaves are as good as any draft pick assets in the NBA. OKC is the equivalent w/ this years Clippers pick and the Heat pick is probably going to slot in around 20ish, that's not special but it's hardly the top end of their picks.
Noel would be a passable shooter if he could play within 3 feet of the basket. Took 79% of his shots within 10 feet last season as it was. Would be awfully crowded with Okafor in the paint too though. Has bad hands and turns the ball over a lot so I don't see the second coming of D. Jordan. He's also a hack-a-candidate and his odds of hitting two FTs in a row are 37%. Noel's defensive stats were overstated last year as the best defender on a very bad team much like the best offensive player on a very bad team. He's going to have to bulk up a lot to be elite against bigs rather than roaming the floor as a helter-skelter defender getting a lot of steals. Does have great defensive potential however. Still will suck offensively, will turn the ball over a lot, and likely continue to be a weak rebounder for a big.
Okafor's an even better hack target, but should improve some defensively. However, his reaction time is slow. I see him as a rich man's Al Jefferson at the end of the day after watching him in summer league just because I cannot believe he will suck as bad defensively as Al does.
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As for picks, think you're overvaluing the SAC trade. SAC got better and the odds that there's a swap the next two years are very low. Most likely outcome is PHI getting a mif-first 2018 pick three years out and Stauskas for dumping $25 million and some long shot swap odds. PHI is going to suck for the next 2 years so the less than 10% odds swaps are at best for a few slots. We got Zeller and a late first one year out for eating $10 million. Better deal.
As far as future 1st rounders picks not our own and swaps:
2016 BOS: BKN (top 10), DAL (late lottery), MIN (converts to early 2nd)
2016 PHI: LAL (top 10), MIA (bottom 10), OKC (bottom 10), SAC (long shot swap)
Pretty even, give slight edge to PHI
2017 BOS: BKN (late top 10 or better swap)
2017 PHI: SAC (long shot swap)
Clear edge BOS
2018 BOS: BKN (top 10)
2018 PHI: SAC (middle 10 or converts to top 10 in 2019)
Slight edge BOS
Could change if either BKN or SAC implodes, but pretty much a push. PHI's own picks will be much better which they will earn by being unwatchable and flouting the spirit of the rules.
Jordan's rookie numbers are nearly identical with the exception that his coaching staff wasn't actively encouraging him to shoot jump shots for development, well that and Noel makes a somewhat respectable number of FTs for a big...
You're high if you think defensive stats inflate. How does being on a bad team help him steal the ball or block shots?
If anything his offensive efficiency suffered from the lack of spacing in the first half with McDaniels and MCW.
He turned the ball over less than Jordan as a rookie, is a better passer and had a lower turnover percentage as a rookie.... But yes, the two are in no way comparable.
And if you want to roll with Sacramento not being a disaster go ahead. When was the last time they made the playoffs? How's that budding relationship between Karl and Cousins? Their PG is who? How'd that go last time he played for a contender? There are two swaps, and it goes from top 10 protected in 2018 to unprotected the next year.
Pretty bold calling a playoff team a top 10 pick but then calling Sacramento mid lottery.
Topic: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too ! (Read 47274 times)