Yep, me too.
Embiid will be worth all the Nets picks if he's cleared to be healthy moving forward. Not everyday you can get a potential great rim protector who can run the floor and has a developing post game. He'll be an All-Star if he's healthy, and while there's a chance the Nets picks could turn into a #1 overall selection, I'd still trade it for a healthy Embiid, as I know what I'll get from him. At worst, he could potentially give you 10/10/1 block per game, just by running the floor and defending, at worst. I can't imagine what he could do if he pans out.
If I recall, weren't you the one who was insisting the Cs needed to take Upshaw with #16 because he would be gone before they picked at #28?
TP - beat me to it.
Yep. I was that dude.
And I was wrong. I still think we should have picked him at #16, but I was wrong on that one.
My apologies.
I gave you a TP but you didn't need to apologize. Just know that most of these big men are fool's gold.
Realistically, what are Embiid's career chances at this point? Factoring in everything, I estimate is that there's at least a 50% chance he's a bust entirely due to injuries. There's probably only a 1 in 5 chance that he makes even one All-Star team. There is just too much working against him to think that he's anything but a massive boom/bust candidate with a far more likely bust side than boom side. There's a chance he will be a star, but that chance becomes less every day. He's a tantalizing talent to be sure, but the NBA is littered with the careers of tantalizing NBA big men who failed due to injuries.
Now I look at those BKYN picks and given what I know about the Nets today, there's a very high chance that one or more of those picks will wind up in the lottery. If I were a betting man, I would bet that all 3 of those picks will get used by the Celtics - the 2016 and 2018 picks plus the 2017 swap. So if someone asked me would I trade Embiid for the 7-9 pick, the 16-18 pick and the right to move up 5 draft spots - and I believe that is being
quite conservative as to where these picks will fall since I think the Nets will suck worse than that - I'd laugh in their face. Why would I do that when that 7-9 pick offers equal to or a better chance of being a star in the first place (
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm)?Here's the deal that most people aren't considering.
Going in and getting Embiid is basically going all in on this NBA poker game. If it fails, the Celtics are likely doomed to mediocrity and then perhaps another round of tanking. They just won't have the pieces to make a play for another star and probably don't have the guys on the roster to make it happen on their own. Mid round Boston/Dallas 1st rounders and a host of 2nd rounder just won't work. So offering up what some people are throwing around for Embiid, that's it. That's the money shot.
Personally, that's not a good enough chance for me to roll those dice. I like this roster. I think it has great potential. But it's not finished yet and I would much rather have the option of having the bullets in the gun to either being able to use those all of those bullets to fire at more of a sure thing or have the option of having multiple shots at different targets.
Besides, 2016 is the big offseason for the Celtics with cap space, free agents, many draft choices, etc. If the Cs strike out, Embiid will still be there. He won't be playing this year so he can't help this team this year. His value isn't going to go up appreciably because he won't be playing. If it all shakes out in 2016 and Embiid looks like the best option, then going all in on him at that point is still an option. But to do it now makes virtually no sense whatsoever.