16, 28, 33 for 9th pick: would you make the trade now?

[slamtheking]

I'd still do that deal of those 3 picks for #9 with both Winslow and Turner still on the board.  while the 3 guys we picked look like they could be NBA rotation players, Winslow and Turner could be NBA starters if not all-star-caliber players.  I don't think any of the 3 guys we picked will be starter-quality -- my definition of which is a player who's clearly good enough to play against other top quality players in the league and hold their own. 

[PaulAllen]

no, RJ Hunter.

[dreamgreen]

Danny offered to much and I'm glad they didn't take it. As of today IMO Rozier has just as much potential as Winslow, starting to really like this kid. Nice to finally have someone with speed that can get to the rim and to the free throw line.

[acieEarl]

Yes, it's a lot but Winslow has all star potential.

Not sold on Rozier. I'd love for him to prove me wrong. Hunter looks like he could be our best pick. Mickey has looked pretty good but might be struggling to find minutes. Thornton likely will not see any minutes in the NBA this year.

[Tr1boy]

  I think Winslow is wildly overhyped.  He lasted till the 10th pick for a reason. Chad Ford is a clown, I dont take that guy serious.  Had Winslow been on a team like Arizona last year he'd of been exposed. He's more of a glue guy, Nicolas Batum type of player.  I don't see potential star in him at all.

I agree with this post to a certain extent. Winslow is a little more skilled version of Crowder.  Good influence for the team , someone you can go to war with and get you some tough baskets(especially winslow). But likely not a guy you can build a team around. At times will have off games (especially nba level). 

Winslow is a streaky shooter and if his shots are getting blocked near the basket(higher chance in the nba),  you are likely going to get little offensive production from him. Lacks a mid range game .

Rozier , hunter and mickey are not as good overall but each player can do 1 or 2 things at a very high -elite level.   

[Donoghus]

Summer league is near garbage.  I wouldn't take a whole lot out of what you see there one way or another.

Way too soon to make a declaration on this.  I'm still inclined to say, yes.  That I would take the trade and nab Winslow.  Think he has a lot more potential than any of the guys that the Celtics drafted.  Also helps fill a more glaring need. 

[acieEarl]

Summer league is really tough to gauge. I remember watching Marcus Banks tear it up in the summer league and we all know how that turned out.

I was watching the box scores for Winslow and it looked like after the 1rst game he didn't see much playing time. Miami knows this kids going to be good and rather see what the other guys can do.

[Celtics4ever]

I would not.   Ainge even said maybe it was a good thing, so he realizes it was a lot, now.  That is a lot to give up, but he was going to give even more picks than that.   With that in mind, I would say not. 

If it is just three picks, then it is a maybe.  I don't have the high opinion of Winslow that some here have.   I think he is an level player.  But so are our guys.

[action781]

Top draft picks are overrated. With 3 picks, we have as much chance (if not more) to end up with a player as talented as Winslow can be.
As Ainge said, GMs fall in love with their pick during draft week.
I personally don't believe in top draft picks. Unless it's the top 2 or 3, there is too much uncertainty. It's just gambling.

As for the nets unprotected pick, I believe Danny offered the 2018 one to Knicks. Not to Charlotte.

Edit : That would be interesting if somebody can calculate the probability of landing a very good to great player with those 3 picks versus a top 10 pick. Any maths geek here? 

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

I looked at these numbers and according to the analysis, any one pick in the 6-10 range has about 7 stars out of 20 picks.  All of the picks 16 and lower had about a 1 in 20 chance of being a star.  So by this analysis, 16, 28, 33 would on average produce 3 stars in 20, not as good as the 7 in 20 generated by a pick in the 6-10 range.

I don't think the analysis is entirely conclusive but my sense is that it is in the ballpark.  7 of 20 stars for a pick 6-10 (about a third) seems like a high average but even if it is 5 or 6 out of 20, it still has a higher likelihood of being a star than the 3 lower picks.

The idea of getting a star isn't to say that having 1 star is better than having 2 or 3 solid players in all cases.  For the Celtics right now, one high level player is probably the best thing over 2 or 3 rotation players.  But that would not always be the case.  You still might be able to trade some or all of the 3 picks and end up better than what we may have drafted with the one pick.

I think the Celtics did the right thing by not over spending to trade up.  There will be more opportunities to consolidate their assets.  No need to rush and make a bad deal.

Their categories are very subjective.  I mean, not in the way that they are defined numerically, but in the way that I disagree with how they were defined.

For instance, how are players like Jan Vesely, Yi Jinlian, Greg Oden, Adam Morrison, Sheldon Williams not considered busts?  Or at best "deep bench"?

EDIT:  The data analyzed is only from 1998-2008.

[positivitize]

I still would have traded 16, 28, 33, 45, and a future 1st (nets or mavs) for 9

Winslow is going to be a stud.
Turner is going to be a stud.
WCS wasn't available, but I would have traded those picks in a heartbeat for a defensive minded athletic freak of a center.

Don't get me wrong-- I love our new guys. But Justise was my main squeeze and I'm still really upset with Michael freeking Jordan for turning down our godfather offer in order to select Frank freeking Kaminsky

[Yoki_IsTheName]

It'll probably hard to lose on RJ Hunter. But that range would give us Myles Turner, right? I would still do it if that's the case.

[PhoSita]

Yes, I absolutely would.

Summer League should not be considered dispositive on these sort of things.

[MJohnnyboy]

All depends on how good these guys are in a few years. We can't make that judgment after a few summer league games. Joe Forte and Kedrick Brown destroyed the summer league and well, we all know how they turned out. Let's see what happens when these guys play against actual NBA competition.

Even if they pan out, that doesn't mean it's all uphill from here. I would say Jared Sullinger has been better than half the players (and possibly more) that were selected above him in the 2012 draft, and yet we Celtics fans are torn on whether or not we want him on the team going forward. Goes to show that even if a draft pick shows he has talent, that doesn't mean he automatically is part of the future.

[Evantime34]

I would absolutely do that deal now. Sure we would miss out on Rozier, Hunter and Mickey but we would have Winslow, fit Holmes on the roster and have a spot left over for PJ3.

I'm happy with who they selected but had they been able to move up that would have been my preference. This thread might be moot though because it is likely they offered future picks such as the Mavs and if you add that to the package I no longer have interest.

[SHAQATTACK]

I still would have traded 16, 28, 33, 45, and a future 1st (nets or mavs) for 9

Winslow is going to be a stud.
Turner is going to be a stud.
WCS wasn't available, but I would have traded those picks in a heartbeat for a defensive minded athletic freak of a center.

Don't get me wrong-- I love our new guys. But Justise was my main squeeze and I'm still really upset with Michael freeking Jordan for turning down our godfather offer in order to select Frank freeking Kaminsky

I'm exactly here with you on this .   It hurt sooooooo bad to see Winslow on the Heat .....ugh .....anybody but Lakers or Heat .