16, 28, 33 for 9th pick: would you make the trade now?

[JoeyAinge]

Yup still would've. Plus a pick next year. But... Things happen for a reason I'm content with what we have now.

Just imagine a
Smart
Bradley
Winslow

Teams wouldve hated playing us. A defensive rim protector away from being the best defensive team in the league.

[cb8883]

Yes. Winslow is a potential star. I don't think that any of our guys are.

Agreed. They're at the level of the guys already on this roster. You always, always grab the star player.

[Eja117]

Would you trade Rozier, Hunter, Mickey for Winslow? For WCS?

yup

[BudweiserCeltic]

Yes. Winslow is a potential star. I don't think that any of our guys are.

Agreed. They're at the level of the guys already on this roster. You always, always grab the star player.

Who's the star player in this scenario you speak of?

[Tr1boy]

Yes. Winslow is a potential star. I don't think that any of our guys are.

Agreed. They're at the level of the guys already on this roster. You always, always grab the star player.

Who's the star player in this scenario you speak of?

Winslow has not looked like a star at the SL.

[manl_lui]

I still would

I love what I've seen from Rozier so far and is excited to see what a potential backcourt would look like with Smart and Rozier

however, we need two things in my opinion, going forward

a small forward that can score (I don't think Crowder is that guy)
a decent defensive big

[Vermont Green]

Top draft picks are overrated. With 3 picks, we have as much chance (if not more) to end up with a player as talented as Winslow can be.
As Ainge said, GMs fall in love with their pick during draft week.
I personally don't believe in top draft picks. Unless it's the top 2 or 3, there is too much uncertainty. It's just gambling.

As for the nets unprotected pick, I believe Danny offered the 2018 one to Knicks. Not to Charlotte.

Edit : That would be interesting if somebody can calculate the probability of landing a very good to great player with those 3 picks versus a top 10 pick. Any maths geek here? 

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

I looked at these numbers and according to the analysis, any one pick in the 6-10 range has about 7 stars out of 20 picks.  All of the picks 16 and lower had about a 1 in 20 chance of being a star.  So by this analysis, 16, 28, 33 would on average produce 3 stars in 20, not as good as the 7 in 20 generated by a pick in the 6-10 range.

I don't think the analysis is entirely conclusive but my sense is that it is in the ballpark.  7 of 20 stars for a pick 6-10 (about a third) seems like a high average but even if it is 5 or 6 out of 20, it still has a higher likelihood of being a star than the 3 lower picks.

The idea of getting a star isn't to say that having 1 star is better than having 2 or 3 solid players in all cases.  For the Celtics right now, one high level player is probably the best thing over 2 or 3 rotation players.  But that would not always be the case.  You still might be able to trade some or all of the 3 picks and end up better than what we may have drafted with the one pick.

I think the Celtics did the right thing by not over spending to trade up.  There will be more opportunities to consolidate their assets.  No need to rush and make a bad deal.

[sofutomygaha]

I'll be interested to revisit this after 1-2 years, but my answer right now is yes, I would trade Rozier+Mickey+Hunter for either Cauley-Stein or Winslow.

[Birdman]

I would..i think Turner and Winslow will be a very good players..Ainge would had selected Winslow

[sofutomygaha]

Winslow has not looked like a star at the SL.

I don't suppose I need to remind you who DOES look like a star in the SL.

[Boris Badenov]

Top draft picks are overrated. With 3 picks, we have as much chance (if not more) to end up with a player as talented as Winslow can be.
As Ainge said, GMs fall in love with their pick during draft week.
I personally don't believe in top draft picks. Unless it's the top 2 or 3, there is too much uncertainty. It's just gambling.

As for the nets unprotected pick, I believe Danny offered the 2018 one to Knicks. Not to Charlotte.

Edit : That would be interesting if somebody can calculate the probability of landing a very good to great player with those 3 picks versus a top 10 pick. Any maths geek here? 

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Sure, I'll take a quick crack at it. According to those numbers you have with the #10 pick about a 30% chance at a star (I'm averaging the numbers for the 8-11 range).

With #16 it's about 10%, with 28 around 5%, and with 33 about 3% (again averaging a bit across ranges - these are small numbers).

Given the probabilities, the probability of getting one or more stars with our bundle of picks is:

prob = 1 - (0.90)*(0.95)*(0.97) = 0.17

So about 17% based on those numbers.

These are obviously subjective (I've looked at that classification of "star" they use and it's suspect), fuzzy because of the small numbers problem, and based on a suspect quality metric (pts+reb+ast per game).

A few other things:
1. I calculated the probability of getting one or more stars. In a very few situations we could end up with two or three, which would obviously trump anything you could get at #9.
2. If you look at the chances of getting a rotation player, it's much closer to even, and there the odds of getting two or more rotation players with our bundle are better.
3. These numbers may not be particularly applicable in the last draft, because there was a consensus that the talent dropped pretty sharply after the 13-15 range. (This is evidenced by Ainge's near-godfather offer to move up).

[GzUP617]

  I think Winslow is wildly overhyped.  He lasted till the 10th pick for a reason. Chad Ford is a clown, I dont take that guy serious.  Had Winslow been on a team like Arizona last year he'd of been exposed. He's more of a glue guy, Nicolas Batum type of player.  I don't see potential star in him at all.

[manl_lui]

  I think Winslow is wildly overhyped.  He lasted till the 10th pick for a reason. Chad Ford is a clown, I dont take that guy serious.  Had Winslow been on a team like Arizona last year he'd of been exposed. He's more of a glue guy, Nicolas Batum type of player.  I don't see potential star in him at all.

to be fair, just because you slipped, doesn't mean you are overhyped or what not...

Kobe and Paul George are drafted > 10
Noel whom a lot of people on this forum are crazy about was drafted at 9

I think one reason why Winslow slipped is because everyone drafted before Winslow were  either centers or guards. (correct me if I am wrong)

[smiggity]

to be fair, just because you slipped, doesn't mean you are overhyped or what not...

Kobe and Paul George are drafted > 10
Noel whom a lot of people on this forum are crazy about was drafted at 9

I think one reason why Winslow slipped is because everyone drafted before Winslow were  either centers or guards. (correct me if I am wrong)

Well, for starters Noel was drafted #6 not #9 in 2013. For that matter, Paul George was drafted #10 (like Winslow) not > 10.

As for the 2015 draft, Herzonja was drafted by the Magic at #5 and is a SF like Winslow as is Stanley Johnson who was drafted by the Pistons at #8.

[slamtheking]

  I think Winslow is wildly overhyped.  He lasted till the 10th pick for a reason. Chad Ford is a clown, I dont take that guy serious.  Had Winslow been on a team like Arizona last year he'd of been exposed. He's more of a glue guy, Nicolas Batum type of player.  I don't see potential star in him at all.

to be fair, just because you slipped, doesn't mean you are overhyped or what not...

Kobe and Paul George are drafted > 10
Noel whom a lot of people on this forum are crazy about was drafted at 9

I think one reason why Winslow slipped is because everyone drafted before Winslow were  either centers or guards. (correct me if I am wrong)

ok
First correction. Noel was taken 6th, not 9th when drafted.
Second correction. Mario Hezonja, a SF/SF, was taken 5th.  Stanley Johnson, who is also a SF, was drafted 8th. both  ahead of Winslow.