Poll: How many lottery picks will we have in 2016?

[loco_91]

Two. Brooklyn and Dallas.

Dallas will be in the 8-12 range. They'll try to make the playoffs but there's a problem: They aren't very good. Their starting 5 consists two guys who are past their prime (Williams and Dirk), two guys who are coming off of serious injuries (Parsons and Matthews), and a mediocre center (Zaza). Not to mention they have serious depth issues. Who on their roster would you want in your rotation outside of Harris and Barea, who play the same position? If you say Richard Jefferson or Charlie Villanueva then you're really grasping. That teams isn't going to beat out New Orleans or Utah, two teams that are definitvely on the rise. I'd argue Phoenix and Sacramento could be better than the Mavericks next year. It's possible that even Minnesota could be better than Dallas if everything goes right for them. They have exciting young talent and good veterans to surround them.

Brooklyn could be anywhere from 4-10 (and possibly lower if Lopez gets hurt). I seriously don't understand how Celtics fans can be so pessimistic about that pick. I know it's the east, but statistically speaking, the Nets got worse by getting rid of Deron Williams, no matter how overrated he is. Their starting five is the injury-prone Lopez, a deteriorating Joe Johnson, Thad Young, RHJ (he could be good but not right away), and an aging Jarrett Jack, and if you thought Dallas had depth issues, wait until you see Brooklyn's bench! They just got rid of Teletovic and Blake, two productive bench players, to save cap room, so who do they have?
-Andrea Bargnani can score, but he can't rebound or play defense, which is sad for a seven footer. It's Brook Lopez' faults except much worse. Not to mention Bargs hasn't played more than 42 games since 2011. That's a legit red flag.
-Thomas Robinson and Shane Larkin are failed 1st-rounders. Robinson has shown flashes but has not done anything to establish any consistency. Larkin failed to play well even when he hardly had competition in New York. Robinson was a throw-in in the Afflalo deal. That is pretty telling.
-The only two guys who I think could give them good production off the bench is Bogdanovic and Ellington, and they play the same position.

Need I mention that if Lopez gets hurt, their season goes down the drain. Even if he stays healthy, its a top 10 pick. if Lopez is out for an extended period of time, it's a top 5 pick.

nice analysis, so a tp.

just to shed a tad more light on the nets' situation, steve blake was traded to get the team under the luxury tax, which has been their primary goal this off season. and, thomas robinson is getting surgery to repair a small meniscus tear. i wish him lots of luck and a long, long recovery period.
 
so, right now my non-expert eyes tell me that the nets' depth chart looks a bit like this:

jack/larkin/boatright
bogdonovich/ellington
johnson/RHJ/karasev
young/t-rob
lopez/bargnani
 
boy, boy, oh boy. that is one ****ty team, even if it stays healthy.  second best of all, NO draft picks to bail them out in the immediate future.

first best of all, this will be a sucky team that MUST improve via free agents, and for the immediate future every [dang] team in the nba will have cap space. 

honestly, i dont see how this version of the nets can NOT suck out loud.

mr ainge seems to have been both good and lucky here. me? i book them for the low lottery.

Yuuup. Who is the 4th best player on this team, tell me please?

[saltlover]

I don't think it happen, but the more I look at Minny, the more I'm on the bandwagon that they could take a decent leap this year.  Health is definitely a key factor, but consider this 2-deep:

PG: Rubio/Tyus Jones
SG: Wiggins/Kevin Martin
SF: Nemanja Bjelica/Muhammad-Bennett winner
PF: KG/Towns
C: Pekovic/Dieng

That's a solid starting 5 and a decent set of backups behind them.  Towns really doesn't have to step in and be asked to do more than be the 4th big when everyone is healthy, and Jones doesn't have to give more than 15 okay minutes off the bench either.  The backup 3 is a little dicey, but those are two decent talents at it.  They also have Zach Levine who can compete with Jones for backcourt minutes.

Health, again, is key -- especially upfront, as Pek has constant injuries, and KG really can't play every day at this point.  Rubio also has not been the pillar of health.  But if they can get a full season from Rubio, and manage off days well enough so that they rarely have games with neither Pek nor KG, they could win a lot more than expected.  Will it be enough to get them to the coveted #13?  Maybe not, but crazier things definitely have happened.  If that pick were only top 10 protected I'd like the odds a lot more.

[csfansince60s]

I voted one.

It well could be two (should be) and with a lot of luck, could be three, but should be and  luck are not words that are associated with Celtics in drafts very often.

[max215]

I don't think it happen, but the more I look at Minny, the more I'm on the bandwagon that they could take a decent leap this year.  Health is definitely a key factor, but consider this 2-deep:

PG: Rubio/Tyus Jones
SG: Wiggins/Kevin Martin
SF: Nemanja Bjelica/Muhammad-Bennett winner
PF: KG/Towns
C: Pekovic/Dieng

That's a solid starting 5 and a decent set of backups behind them.  Towns really doesn't have to step in and be asked to do more than be the 4th big when everyone is healthy, and Jones doesn't have to give more than 15 okay minutes off the bench either.  The backup 3 is a little dicey, but those are two decent talents at it.  They also have Zach Levine who can compete with Jones for backcourt minutes.

Health, again, is key -- especially upfront, as Pek has constant injuries, and KG really can't play every day at this point.  Rubio also has not been the pillar of health.  But if they can get a full season from Rubio, and manage off days well enough so that they rarely have games with neither Pek nor KG, they could win a lot more than expected.  Will it be enough to get them to the coveted #13?  Maybe not, but crazier things definitely have happened.  If that pick were only top 10 protected I'd like the odds a lot more.

Except Wiggins isn't a SG, he's a SF, and Towns is definitely the starter over KG. You also left out Zach Lavine. More to your point though, I agree they have the tools to make a big leap from last year.

Edit: and Bennett's a PF

[#1P4P]

Celtics will have at least 2 picks in the Lottery and a 3rd within the top 20. Forget the Minnesota pick, they're a lottery team until 2017-2018 unless they pickup a solid vet or 2.

The Nets and Mavericks are going to miss the playoffs... The question isn't if, it's by how much.

The Nets will continue attempting to reload to no avail. They are a Brook Lopez injury away from being bottom 7 in the league.

The Mavericks have a solid starting 5, but 2/5 of it have had serious knee injuries in the past 3-4 months, will be injured part of the season, have depth issues, and Dirk can't carry the load as the #1 option anymore. Their depth issues had them giving up leads and digging deep holes for them last year with Ellis and Chandler. He might West will again have a 45-win minimum once again.

I'm optimistic about this Celtics team (the 2nd half of last season was no fluke), but the Heat and, to a lesser extent, Pacers will be tough to beat out this year for a spot in the playoffs. I don't discount some teams regressing, but 40 wins might be the minimum.

[saltlover]

I don't think it happen, but the more I look at Minny, the more I'm on the bandwagon that they could take a decent leap this year.  Health is definitely a key factor, but consider this 2-deep:

PG: Rubio/Tyus Jones
SG: Wiggins/Kevin Martin
SF: Nemanja Bjelica/Muhammad-Bennett winner
PF: KG/Towns
C: Pekovic/Dieng

That's a solid starting 5 and a decent set of backups behind them.  Towns really doesn't have to step in and be asked to do more than be the 4th big when everyone is healthy, and Jones doesn't have to give more than 15 okay minutes off the bench either.  The backup 3 is a little dicey, but those are two decent talents at it.  They also have Zach Levine who can compete with Jones for backcourt minutes.

Health, again, is key -- especially upfront, as Pek has constant injuries, and KG really can't play every day at this point.  Rubio also has not been the pillar of health.  But if they can get a full season from Rubio, and manage off days well enough so that they rarely have games with neither Pek nor KG, they could win a lot more than expected.  Will it be enough to get them to the coveted #13?  Maybe not, but crazier things definitely have happened.  If that pick were only top 10 protected I'd like the odds a lot more.

Except Wiggins isn't a SG, he's a SF, and Towns is definitely the starter over KG. You also left out Zach Lavine. More to your point though, I agree they have the tools to make a big leap from last year.

Edit: and Bennett's a PF

I mention Levine.  I also think Wiggins starts at the 2 when everyone is healthy.  Bjelica will start, and he's a 6'10" SF/PF (which is why I put Bennett behind him potentially).  I'm guessing KG starts at the beginning of the season so Towns earns his minutes, but also because I think he pairs well with Pekovic as an offense/defense duo.  Regardless, they have lots of talent and can run out some interesting lineups.

[positivitize]

My guess is that we'll end up picking 6th (Nets) and 8th (Dallas). I wonder if we can bundle those 2 picks to move into the top 4...

[MJohnnyboy]

I don't think it happen, but the more I look at Minny, the more I'm on the bandwagon that they could take a decent leap this year.  Health is definitely a key factor, but consider this 2-deep:

PG: Rubio/Tyus Jones
SG: Wiggins/Kevin Martin
SF: Nemanja Bjelica/Muhammad-Bennett winner
PF: KG/Towns
C: Pekovic/Dieng

That's a solid starting 5 and a decent set of backups behind them.  Towns really doesn't have to step in and be asked to do more than be the 4th big when everyone is healthy, and Jones doesn't have to give more than 15 okay minutes off the bench either.  The backup 3 is a little dicey, but those are two decent talents at it.  They also have Zach Levine who can compete with Jones for backcourt minutes.

Health, again, is key -- especially upfront, as Pek has constant injuries, and KG really can't play every day at this point.  Rubio also has not been the pillar of health.  But if they can get a full season from Rubio, and manage off days well enough so that they rarely have games with neither Pek nor KG, they could win a lot more than expected.  Will it be enough to get them to the coveted #13?  Maybe not, but crazier things definitely have happened.  If that pick were only top 10 protected I'd like the odds a lot more.

Except Wiggins isn't a SG, he's a SF, and Towns is definitely the starter over KG. You also left out Zach Lavine. More to your point though, I agree they have the tools to make a big leap from last year.

Edit: and Bennett's a PF

I mention Levine.  I also think Wiggins starts at the 2 when everyone is healthy.  Bjelica will start, and he's a 6'10" SF/PF (which is why I put Bennett behind him potentially).  I'm guessing KG starts at the beginning of the season so Towns earns his minutes, but also because I think he pairs well with Pekovic as an offense/defense duo.  Regardless, they have lots of talent and can run out some interesting lineups.

Wiggins is a small forward, ask anyone in Minny and they'll tell you he is a 3, Muhammad is more of a 2 than he is. Heck Lavine and Martin are more pure 2s than Wiggins. Why would they start a second rounder who hasn't played a single game if they have proven options there? They'd start him and not Towns? I definitely agree the T-Wolves will start KG and Pekovic in the season opener, but over time, I anticipate that with their development, Towns and Dieng will replace them. Don't forget they have Adrian Payne too.

I'm holding out hope that the Timberwolves make a leap this year. I'm not expecting it but it would be nice. It would be a great bonus if Anthony Bennett played up to his potential.
PG:Ricky Rubio/Tyus Jones
SG:Zach Lavine/Kevin Martin
SF:Andrew Wiggins/Shabazz Muhammad
PF:Karl-Anthony Towns/Kevin Garnett/Anthony Bennett
C:Gorgui Dieng/Nikola Pekovic/Adrian Payne

That team could make the playoffs in the deep west but only if the vets stay on the court healthy and the young guys live up to their potential.

[saltlover]

I don't think it happen, but the more I look at Minny, the more I'm on the bandwagon that they could take a decent leap this year.  Health is definitely a key factor, but consider this 2-deep:

PG: Rubio/Tyus Jones
SG: Wiggins/Kevin Martin
SF: Nemanja Bjelica/Muhammad-Bennett winner
PF: KG/Towns
C: Pekovic/Dieng

That's a solid starting 5 and a decent set of backups behind them.  Towns really doesn't have to step in and be asked to do more than be the 4th big when everyone is healthy, and Jones doesn't have to give more than 15 okay minutes off the bench either.  The backup 3 is a little dicey, but those are two decent talents at it.  They also have Zach Levine who can compete with Jones for backcourt minutes.

Health, again, is key -- especially upfront, as Pek has constant injuries, and KG really can't play every day at this point.  Rubio also has not been the pillar of health.  But if they can get a full season from Rubio, and manage off days well enough so that they rarely have games with neither Pek nor KG, they could win a lot more than expected.  Will it be enough to get them to the coveted #13?  Maybe not, but crazier things definitely have happened.  If that pick were only top 10 protected I'd like the odds a lot more.

Except Wiggins isn't a SG, he's a SF, and Towns is definitely the starter over KG. You also left out Zach Lavine. More to your point though, I agree they have the tools to make a big leap from last year.

Edit: and Bennett's a PF

I mention Levine.  I also think Wiggins starts at the 2 when everyone is healthy.  Bjelica will start, and he's a 6'10" SF/PF (which is why I put Bennett behind him potentially).  I'm guessing KG starts at the beginning of the season so Towns earns his minutes, but also because I think he pairs well with Pekovic as an offense/defense duo.  Regardless, they have lots of talent and can run out some interesting lineups.

Wiggins is a small forward, ask anyone in Minny and they'll tell you he is a 3, Muhammad is more of a 2 than he is. Heck Lavine and Martin are more pure 2s than Wiggins. Why would they start a second rounder who hasn't played a single game if they have proven options there? They'd start him and not Towns? I definitely agree the T-Wolves will start KG and Pekovic in the season opener, but over time, I anticipate that with their development, Towns and Dieng will replace them. Don't forget they have Adrian Payne too.

I'm holding out hope that the Timberwolves make a leap this year. I'm not expecting it but it would be nice. It would be a great bonus if Anthony Bennett played up to his potential.
PG:Ricky Rubio/Tyus Jones
SG:Zach Lavine/Kevin Martin
SF:Andrew Wiggins/Shabazz Muhammad
PF:Karl-Anthony Towns/Kevin Garnett/Anthony Bennett
C:Gorgui Dieng/Nikola Pekovic/Adrian Payne

That team could make the playoffs in the deep west but only if the vets stay on the court healthy and the young guys live up to their potential.

That 2nd-rounder was the Euroleague MVP last year and is 27 years old.  He's ready to be an NBA starter and is a lot more proven than some of the other players.  It's not his fault you've never heard of him.

[MJohnnyboy]

I don't think it happen, but the more I look at Minny, the more I'm on the bandwagon that they could take a decent leap this year.  Health is definitely a key factor, but consider this 2-deep:

PG: Rubio/Tyus Jones
SG: Wiggins/Kevin Martin
SF: Nemanja Bjelica/Muhammad-Bennett winner
PF: KG/Towns
C: Pekovic/Dieng

That's a solid starting 5 and a decent set of backups behind them.  Towns really doesn't have to step in and be asked to do more than be the 4th big when everyone is healthy, and Jones doesn't have to give more than 15 okay minutes off the bench either.  The backup 3 is a little dicey, but those are two decent talents at it.  They also have Zach Levine who can compete with Jones for backcourt minutes.

Health, again, is key -- especially upfront, as Pek has constant injuries, and KG really can't play every day at this point.  Rubio also has not been the pillar of health.  But if they can get a full season from Rubio, and manage off days well enough so that they rarely have games with neither Pek nor KG, they could win a lot more than expected.  Will it be enough to get them to the coveted #13?  Maybe not, but crazier things definitely have happened.  If that pick were only top 10 protected I'd like the odds a lot more.

Except Wiggins isn't a SG, he's a SF, and Towns is definitely the starter over KG. You also left out Zach Lavine. More to your point though, I agree they have the tools to make a big leap from last year.

Edit: and Bennett's a PF

I mention Levine.  I also think Wiggins starts at the 2 when everyone is healthy.  Bjelica will start, and he's a 6'10" SF/PF (which is why I put Bennett behind him potentially).  I'm guessing KG starts at the beginning of the season so Towns earns his minutes, but also because I think he pairs well with Pekovic as an offense/defense duo.  Regardless, they have lots of talent and can run out some interesting lineups.

Wiggins is a small forward, ask anyone in Minny and they'll tell you he is a 3, Muhammad is more of a 2 than he is. Heck Lavine and Martin are more pure 2s than Wiggins. Why would they start a second rounder who hasn't played a single game if they have proven options there? They'd start him and not Towns? I definitely agree the T-Wolves will start KG and Pekovic in the season opener, but over time, I anticipate that with their development, Towns and Dieng will replace them. Don't forget they have Adrian Payne too.

I'm holding out hope that the Timberwolves make a leap this year. I'm not expecting it but it would be nice. It would be a great bonus if Anthony Bennett played up to his potential.
PG:Ricky Rubio/Tyus Jones
SG:Zach Lavine/Kevin Martin
SF:Andrew Wiggins/Shabazz Muhammad
PF:Karl-Anthony Towns/Kevin Garnett/Anthony Bennett
C:Gorgui Dieng/Nikola Pekovic/Adrian Payne

That team could make the playoffs in the deep west but only if the vets stay on the court healthy and the young guys live up to their potential.

That 2nd-rounder was the Euroleague MVP last year and is 27 years old.  He's ready to be an NBA starter and is a lot more proven than some of the other players.  It's not his fault you've never heard of him.

Wait, he was the Euroleague MVP?!

He shares the same honor with the likes of Anthony Parker, Sergio Rodriguez, and Juan Carlos Navarro. Those guys were NBA terrors if I recall. I still have nightmares about them. Not to mention the NBA would-have-been-terrors Theo Popoloukas, Rasmunas Siskauskas, Milos Teodosic, Dimitris Diamantidis, and Vassilis Spanoulis. Imagine if those guys had crossed over.

Still, I'm pretty sure Bjelca is gonna have to earn his minutes in Minny just like Towns will, no matter how prestigious Bjelca might have been in Europe.

Technically Andrei Kirilenko has that award as well, but that was only because of the lockout.