Poll: How many lottery picks will we have in 2016?

[mef730]

Since we tend to dance around the subject quite a bit, let's standardize a thread for it. How many lottery picks will the Celtics get next year and, for added credit, what picks will they have? It's early, so feel free to consider any scenario you like: We trade for more, we trade some of the picks, Brook Lopez gets injured/remains healthy, Dallas tanks, etc.

As much as we like to speculate about big changes, I think that things stay pretty status quo, with movement around the edges, and am voting for 2.

Celtics: Make the playoffs in the 8 seed and get the 15th pick. The top 6 remain the top 6 (although not necessarily in that order) in the conference and Miami passes us. Wild card that the Knicks pass us, also; Melo, Affalo and RLopez is a decent trio, even if there's nobody after that.

Brooklyn: Wins us the 7th pick. I'm assuming that Lopez puts in 60-70 games. Brooklyn finishes ahead of Philly, Detroit, Portland, Phoenix, Denver and LAL.

Dallas: No tank, 9th pick. Finishes ahead of the seven above plus Orlando. Magic still a year away from prime time. Along with NYK, this is my other potential wild card team for being much better than expected.

Minnesota: If they were in the east, they'd be in the playoffs. They're not, and while they will be a much improved team this year, they'll miss the top 8 by a spot or two. Typical Celtics lottery luck, they end up with the 12th pick and keep it.

Mike

[PhoSita]

I believe Dallas will end up missing the playoffs with a bad but not terrible record.

I believe that between the Celts and Nets, one team will make the playoffs and the other will miss the playoffs by 5-10 games.

So, I think we can expect two lottery picks, both in the later portion of the lottery (e.g. 11-14).

I think the Celts' draft next year could look a lot like what the Rockets had a few years ago when they picked at 12, 16, and 18.

Let's all hope very fervently that the Celts are able to trade those picks for a better pick or established player cause dang, they can't carry that many rookies again.

[slamtheking]

hoping for 4, figuring 3.  Minny's will likely not convey.  C's might make playoffs with recent moves but if they do I suspect it'll be by the skin of their teeth.  figuring the Nets and Dallas for locks in the lottery.  question is just how bad with Dallas be?

[GC003332]

2 lottery picks 1st , 10th plus the Celts pick at 19

[max215]

I went with two:

Celtics Pick: 19
I think we see a slight improvement from last year, finishing with around 45 wins.

Minny Pick: N/A
The Wolves have an amazing young core and will make a huge leap this year, but the West is tough, and I see 7 clear-cut playoff teams with the Jazz making a stronger case for the 8th seed than anyone else. This pick is going to be in 8-12 range, just barely not conveying.

Mavs Pick: 11
I'm betting that the Mavs are going to be utterly mediocre, missing the playoffs in the crowded West. My guess would be that their win total is in the mid to high thirties.

Nets Pick: 4
Every time I look at the Net's roster I become more and more convinced that without Brook Lopez they have the league's single worst roster. And to that point, it's not ridiculous to predict that Lopez will miss significant time. I mean we're not talking about an iron-man like Damian Lillard, who's never missed a game in his NBA career, this is Brook Lopez. The same Brook Lopez who played 17 games in 2013 and 5 games in 2011; he hasn't played a full season since 2010. So, I'm going to factor in the possibility that Lopez misses significant time and pencil the Nets in for roughly 25 wins and the 4th pick in the draft.

With 4, 11, 19, and boatload of 2nd rounders, I think we'd be in excellent position to draft some important pieces or make a significant trade. I know a lot of you are going to disagree with me on my projections, but hey, I'm open to thoughtful debate.

[BDeCosta26]

If I was betting on it, I'd say two. I think we're more likely to win the Atlantic than miss the playoffs completely (though both are certainly possible). I think Minnesota will be much improved, and I think Dallas will fall out of the playoffs in the West but OKC, Phoneix and Utah are more likely to make it than the Wolves.

Dallas seems likely to be right where we need them to be. Bad enough to miss the playoffs by a pretty safe margin, but not bad enough to be a bottom 7 team. They seem likely to give us a pick right around #10. (8-12 probably)

The Nets seem even more likely to give us a top-10 pick, honestly. Though I think they're not gonna make the playoffs, Just how high that pick gets depends almost entirely on Brook Lopez. If Lopez is healthy all year, and playing at his highest possible level all year they could make a playoff push and give us a pick in the 11-14 range. If he goes down for any significant period, or doesn't play as well as he did at the end of last year, that's a lock to be a top-10 or even a top 5 pick. I'd be more willing to bet that Lopez goes down for some stretch of time and that pick lands in the 4-8 range than not.

As for us, though the East has certainly improved I think we have as well. Another year together for these guys will show why they looked pretty good to end last season, and I could see us being better than Toronto over the course of 82 games. It's definitely possible that we miss out and our own pick falls into the late lottery too, but I can't imagine it getting any higher than 12. More likely 14-17 or 18.

All in all, I would guess that we end up with picks #6, #10 and #16 in the 1st and #32 and 35 in the early 2nd. That will be quite a lot for Ainge to work with. And if your a team like say, Denver or Philly, and Your willing to part with your pick for the right price, couldn't you see Hinkie's trading from #2 to #6 if it meant he also got #10 and #16. Or if your Denver at #3, wouldn't you consider that as a way to kick your rebuild into high gear? You'd have to at least consider it.

Smart, Pierce and Big Al were picked at #'s 6, 10 and 15 respectively. If that's where your picks end up, would you ship out a chunk of the roster so you can get those guys in Green if you like them enough?

[GreenShooter]

We're cherry picking on Lopez. He's played at least 70+ in 5 of 7 seasons, including playing well last year. That said, I think there are about 3-5 teams worse than the Nets so I hope the C's get a top 5 pick from them and a late lottery pick from Dallas. There's still trades to be made and buy-outs so we'll know better once the season gets rolling.

[farishmj16]

The East got a whole lot stronger this offseason. I don't think Brooklyn or Boston will make the playoffs. Miami, when healthy, is a really strong East Contender. A healthy Paul George could also push the C's out of the 8 Spot. Even Orlando has a lot of talent this season, (however they are fairly young) but it all depends on how new head coach Scott Skiles coaches

[celticsclay]

We're cherry picking on Lopez. He's played at least 70+ in 5 of 7 seasons, including playing well last year. That said, I think there are about 3-5 teams worse than the Nets so I hope the C's get a top 5 pick from them and a late lottery pick from Dallas. There's still trades to be made and buy-outs so we'll know better once the season gets rolling.

I don't think it is really cherry picking when you are just looking at a guys last 4 seasons when he had related injuries. He did not have health issues before breaking his foot, but now he does and had a subsequent issue with it. In fact we are not the only people that worry about this, Brook himself does. Last season he (and the team) feared he had broken his foot again (which would have been a third time in 4 seasons). The risks are real

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/18/sports/basketball/nets-and-brook-lopez-savor-the-news-on-his-foot-injury.html?_r=0

[max215]

We're cherry picking on Lopez. He's played at least 70+ in 5 of 7 seasons, including playing well last year. That said, I think there are about 3-5 teams worse than the Nets so I hope the C's get a top 5 pick from them and a late lottery pick from Dallas. There's still trades to be made and buy-outs so we'll know better once the season gets rolling.

I don't think it is really cherry picking when you are just looking at a guys last 4 seasons when he had related injuries. He did not have health issues before breaking his foot, but now he does and had a subsequent issue with it. In fact we are not the only people that worry about this, Brook himself does. Last season he (and the team) feared he had broken his foot again (which would have been a third time in 4 seasons). The risks are real

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/18/sports/basketball/nets-and-brook-lopez-savor-the-news-on-his-foot-injury.html?_r=0

Well put, TP. The fact of the matter is that in the last 5 seasons Brook has played 82 games, then missed the season, played 74, then missed the season, and played 72 last year. Compound that with the fact that he's a 7 footer and the recurring injury is to the foot and the red flags become quite apparent.

[Moranis]

Just one.  Boston's own pick. 

Dallas and Brooklyn make the playoffs as the 8th seed (both may be under .500, as I think this is the year the west normalizes a bit).  Minnesota is too bad and the pick doesn't convey.

[colincb]

Two - DAL and BKN. Both got worse.

West: DAL and POR out, OKC and UTA in. Minnesota will be very raw even if better.

East: MIA replaces BKN who is an injury away from a top 5 pick.  BOS does better than the Liberty Bawler fanboys predict if that surprises anyone.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

What does Minny need to do in the West to get us 13?

[saltlover]

What does Minny need to do in the West to get us 13?

Win at least 40 games.  Don't see that happening, unfortunately.

[tankcity!]

Two - DAL and BKN. Both got worse.

West: DAL and POR out, OKC and UTA in. Minnesota will be very raw even if better.

East: MIA replaces BKN who is an injury away from a top 5 pick.  BOS does better than the Liberty Bawler fanboys predict if that surprises anyone.

You forgot about Phoenix