Just how bad is Dallas going to be i.e. will we get their pick?

[Moranis]

Clearly without Jordan they are worse off, but just how much worse off.  They still have cap space and they still have Dirk, Parsons, and Matthews.  They also have Felton, Harris, Villanueva, and Dwight Powell under contract.  They drafted Justin Anderson.

That back-court and wings aren't that bad and Dirk is a good start down low.  They clearly need some big man help.  Say they go after a guy like Josh Smith or Jordan Hill or Tyler Hansborough, and other players in that range.  Let's just say they fill the roster with those types.  Or maybe they go hard after Kanter and put OKC in a weird spot.

Where does that leave them in the West (assuming no Kanter)?

I'd say there are clearly 7 teams better than the Mavs - GS, LAC, OKC, SA, Mem, Hou, NO

After that though the team above is certainly in the mix for that final playoff spot with the likes of Phoenix, Denver, Utah, Minnesota, Portland, LA Lakers, and Sacramento.

In other words even without Jordan the Mavs still have a shot at making the playoffs.  Even if they don't, it doesn't look like they will crater, which likely means Boston will be getting the pick from them.  Let's also not forget there are going to be some bad teams in the East which should help boost Dallas even higher. 

All and all I think Boston gets that Dallas pick, which will probably be around 10. 

[Who]

I think the Mavs are battling Minnesota and Denver for the 11th-13th place finish in the West.

I think they are odds on for a top 7 pick.

[jpotter33]

I think they'll land anywhere from 6-10 in the lottery. In addition to those 7 teams, I would put Phoenix, Utah, and Sacramento ahead of them based on their roster additions/growth of young players this past season and summer.

Sure, they definitely could make the playoffs, but virtually EVERYTHING would have to go right for them for their current roster to make it: several teams ahead of them sustaining injuries, Dirk not declining, their two oft-injured wings staying healthy, etc. I just don't see all of that going in their favor.

[jbpats]

assume they land in the 8-10 range would you take the pick knowing this years draft is lackluster or would you hold out to 2017?

[Who]

The only teams that I view as clearly worse than Dallas in the league are:

The 76ers, the Lakers and the Blazers. Only 3 teams.

[Moranis]

The only teams that I view as clearly worse than Dallas in the league are:

The 76ers, the Lakers and the Blazers. Only 3 teams.

I don't necessarily disagree as them being clearly worse, but there are a lot of teams that I think are in their same general range.  This is a team that won 50 games last year and lost Chandler, Ellis, Aminu, Barea, Jefferson, Amare, and Rondo.  They replaced Ellis with Matthews.  Rondo was such a disaster for them they didn't even put him on the playoff roster.  Chandler is a big loss and they will miss Aminu and Barea (though Anderson can do some of what Aminu did for them).   Jefferson and Amare isn't much.

If they get Parsons healthy, I don't see them as all that much worse if they can add say Josh Smith and Jordan Hill. 

[FreddieJ]

Clearly without Jordan they are worse off, but just how much worse off.  They still have cap space and they still have Dirk, Parsons, and Matthews.  They also have Felton, Harris, Villanueva, and Dwight Powell under contract.  They drafted Justin Anderson.

That back-court and wings aren't that bad and Dirk is a good start down low.  They clearly need some big man help.  Say they go after a guy like Josh Smith or Jordan Hill or Tyler Hansborough, and other players in that range.  Let's just say they fill the roster with those types.  Or maybe they go hard after Kanter and put OKC in a weird spot.

Where does that leave them in the West (assuming no Kanter)?

I'd say there are clearly 7 teams better than the Mavs - GS, LAC, OKC, SA, Mem, Hou, NO

After that though the team above is certainly in the mix for that final playoff spot with the likes of Phoenix, Denver, Utah, Minnesota, Portland, LA Lakers, and Sacramento.

In other words even without Jordan the Mavs still have a shot at making the playoffs.  Even if they don't, it doesn't look like they will crater, which likely means Boston will be getting the pick from them.  Let's also not forget there are going to be some bad teams in the East which should help boost Dallas even higher. 

All and all I think Boston gets that Dallas pick, which will probably be around 10.

Why do you have Sacramento last with double the Celtics talent?

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

assume they land in the 8-10 range would you take the pick knowing this years draft is lackluster or would you hold out to 2017?

I don't think it works that way? The pick is ours anywhere outside of 7, I would think. If we are allowed to wait, wouldn't we just keep waiting until it's a good lotto pick or until 2020 when it's unprotected, whichever comes first?

[colincb]

The only teams that I view as clearly worse than Dallas in the league are:

The 76ers, the Lakers and the Blazers. Only 3 teams.

Nuggets and Knicks are easily worse and a slew of teams who could be.

PHX was a disaster in the second half, DET lost Monroe and got Stanley Johnson, SAC is a powder-keg with a lot of combustible personalities, CHA is CHA and if Al has another injury year they're in trouble, Indy lost their bigs for rookie Turner, MINN is very young as is ORL, Nets are an injury away from disaster, etc.

Only the Heat, Thunder, and Jazz look likely to make a real run to the playoffs leaving 11 lottery teams, the Nets, DAL, and a +.500 team in the lottery.

Back half of the lottery most likely.

[Moranis]

Clearly without Jordan they are worse off, but just how much worse off.  They still have cap space and they still have Dirk, Parsons, and Matthews.  They also have Felton, Harris, Villanueva, and Dwight Powell under contract.  They drafted Justin Anderson.

That back-court and wings aren't that bad and Dirk is a good start down low.  They clearly need some big man help.  Say they go after a guy like Josh Smith or Jordan Hill or Tyler Hansborough, and other players in that range.  Let's just say they fill the roster with those types.  Or maybe they go hard after Kanter and put OKC in a weird spot.

Where does that leave them in the West (assuming no Kanter)?

I'd say there are clearly 7 teams better than the Mavs - GS, LAC, OKC, SA, Mem, Hou, NO

After that though the team above is certainly in the mix for that final playoff spot with the likes of Phoenix, Denver, Utah, Minnesota, Portland, LA Lakers, and Sacramento.

In other words even without Jordan the Mavs still have a shot at making the playoffs.  Even if they don't, it doesn't look like they will crater, which likely means Boston will be getting the pick from them.  Let's also not forget there are going to be some bad teams in the East which should help boost Dallas even higher. 

All and all I think Boston gets that Dallas pick, which will probably be around 10.

Why do you have Sacramento last with double the Celtics talent?

they weren't in order

[max215]

assume they land in the 8-10 range would you take the pick knowing this years draft is lackluster or would you hold out to 2017?

That's not how it works, pal. We get the pick as long as it's outside the top 7.

[chambers]

Clearly without Jordan they are worse off, but just how much worse off.  They still have cap space and they still have Dirk, Parsons, and Matthews.  They also have Felton, Harris, Villanueva, and Dwight Powell under contract.  They drafted Justin Anderson.

That back-court and wings aren't that bad and Dirk is a good start down low.  They clearly need some big man help.  Say they go after a guy like Josh Smith or Jordan Hill or Tyler Hansborough, and other players in that range.  Let's just say they fill the roster with those types.  Or maybe they go hard after Kanter and put OKC in a weird spot.

Where does that leave them in the West (assuming no Kanter)?

I'd say there are clearly 7 teams better than the Mavs - GS, LAC, OKC, SA, Mem, Hou, NO

After that though the team above is certainly in the mix for that final playoff spot with the likes of Phoenix, Denver, Utah, Minnesota, Portland, LA Lakers, and Sacramento.

In other words even without Jordan the Mavs still have a shot at making the playoffs.  Even if they don't, it doesn't look like they will crater, which likely means Boston will be getting the pick from them.  Let's also not forget there are going to be some bad teams in the East which should help boost Dallas even higher. 

All and all I think Boston gets that Dallas pick, which will probably be around 10.

I agree with everything you've said. Perhaps they go after Hibbert from Indiana or LA now, or ask Danny for Amir Johnson or David Lee.

Can't see them falling into a top 7 pick unless they ship out Parsons+Dirk.

[celticsclay]

assume they land in the 8-10 range would you take the pick knowing this years draft is lackluster or would you hold out to 2017?

That's not how it works, pal. We get the pick as long as it's outside the top 7.

haha i like when people call each other pal. However, if we are going to be silly, I am sure if the celtics offered to defer this pick when it was in the 8-10 range Dallas would gladly defer. We would be crazy to do that.

[PhoSita]

If they keep their roster more or less as it is now, yeah, we'll get it.

If they make a point of steering things downward i.e. trading Parsons and / or Dirk, then no, probably not.