You stand a much better chance of drafting another Harrison Barnes or John Henson (or worse) with that Nets pick than someone better than those two.
The Nets pick will be top 5. I'd be extremely disappointed if the player we got at that slot was only as good as either of those players.
Barnes is an OK starter. He's not at even Jeff Green's level and I'd honestly be surprised if he ever got there.
Henson is a bench player. Probably won't be much more than a 7th man on a good team.
The only way you could honestly see them as better than who's available with the Nets pick is if you're under the impression that mess of a team will make the playoffs. Even if Brooklyn only provided a pick from 7-10, I'd still take that over either of those players.
Yeah, if that's what you get from a top 5 pick that's pretty depressing, but I guess it kinda depends on the draft class too.
In a class considered at the time as weak as the 2013 draft, I'm not sure if I wouldn't trade the 10th pick for Harrison Barnes. I think Barnes could develop a more well-rounded game with higher output in a different environment where he's not a third or fourth option. He's still young. What would you be willing to give up for him and what do you think it would take? I can't see them trading him unless they get a good offer that keeps them in the championship convo.
I agree, strength of the draft class plays a part as well as where you reasonably expect the pick to fall at the end of the season (without counting on lottery luck to get to the top 3).
Reasonably looking at the Nets this season:
- Everyone that finished ahead of them in the East last season figures to still finish ahead of them again this season. That's 7 teams right there (including the C's).
- Miami and Indy are getting boosts from major players returning from injury and added via trades/free agency whereas the Nets really didn't. Nets backslid if anything. Figure 2 more teams ahead of Brooklyn so now they're pretty likely to be in the lottery than the playoffs.
- Charlotte and Detroit shuffled some players that may improve their team chemistry and as a result improve the play of their teams. Each certainly underperformed last year and both attempted to get better this offseason, not worse. I think it likely one or both will surpass Brooklyn. (I actually think both will)
- Knicks added some decent FAs and get Melo back. They're certainly on the same level talent-wise than Brooklyn in not a little better since Prime, Healthy Melo is better than anyone on the Nets.
- Orlando has a nice young core that looked like they're developing in the summer league. The could surprise and pass the Nets as well.
The only team in the East that I don't see having a chance to finish better than the Nets is Philly. In the West, I think there's only a handful of teams that could finish worse than the Nets depending on team health and roster shake-ups -->Portland, LA, maybe Dallas if Cuban pushes for a tank to keep their pick (which I don't see happening), Minny if their youth movement bombs (but I expect the opposite where they'll come close to the playoffs) and Sac as a longshot --> better talent than the Nets and they're trying to win.