Why would we want to give up a 50-50 chance at a lottery pick plus Olynyk for a guy who is 23 years old, 6'8", 210 pounds and per 36s 13/7/2 when we already have a 25 year old guy who plays the same position who is 6'7", 240 and per 36s 13.5/6.5/2 and is probably better defensively? Shouldn't the team see what they have in the guy they just signed for 5/$35m before making a trade for someone at the same position who may not even be appreciably better?
Two words:
* Shooting
* Potential
Harrison Barnes is only 23 years old and he has the perfect physical attributes for an NBA swingman (6'8", 210 lbs, 6'11" wingspan, elite athleticism), so his potential is sky high. He's already capable of contributing on offensive and on defense, and he has shot 44% from the field and 37% from three for his career so far (48% and 40% this year).
Crowder is 25 years old and has decent physical attributes an NBA swingman (good size, length and strength, but merely 'above average' athleticism). He's proven he have an impact defensively, but his lack of explosive athleticism combined with his lack of a jump shot (career averages of 41% FG and 31% 3PT) leave question marks about his ability to be an impact player offensively.
While Crowder (to the eye test) seems to be a great defensive player, the advanced statistics last year suggest that Barns actually had a bigger defensive impact for the Warriors (+1.23 DRPM) than Crowder did for the Celtics (-1.07 DRPM).
This team is desperate right now for a starting caliber SF who can (at the very least) defend multiple positions and can stretch the floor with his outside shot. Currently the closest thing we have to that is Jerebko, who may not be good enough to start. This puts a lot of pressure on our guards because as long as Crowder or Turner is out there on the floor, we NEED two guards who can shoot the three.
Barnes' ability to stretch the floor alone makes him a big upgrade over Crowder - combine that with the huge amount of potential (he reminds me a LOT of Paul George before he exploded) and it's well worth the gamble.
He'd immediately be the best SF on our roster, and possibly also the highest upside player on our roster.
I like Olynyk a lot and I'd hate to trade him out, but I would give up Olynyk and that pick for Barnes. I think Barnes probably has more potential than Olynyk and that pick combined.