Effect on Celtics 2016 1st rounder from The DJ-cision

[slamtheking]

Considering our luck with the lottery, I fully expect Dallas to have the 8th worst record and to win a top 3 pick.

Were due! We have to be. Right? Right?! 

this would be the upcoming draft to get our due.

could be this: C's and the 3 teams that owe us their 1st all miss the playoffs but C's are in the 14th spot (giving us a great run for the playoffs), Dallas finishes with the 7th worst and Minny the 12th worst and Nets are somewhere in bottom 3 --> pre-lottery.
Lottery--C's and Nets get the first and second picks in some order.  The C's jumping into the top 3 pushes Dallas to the 8th pick removing their protections and Minny is pushed to 13th giving us theirs.

if the C's usual luck holds out-->C's and Nets both miraculously make the playoffs so 2 mid-round picks, Dallas finishes in the top 7 slots post-draft (most likely somewhere 8 or higher and jumping to the top 3 so the pick rolls over) and Minny finishes in the top 12 thereby transitioning to a pair of seconds.

[knuckleballer]

Considering our luck with the lottery, I fully expect Dallas to have the 8th worst record and to win a top 3 pick.

Were due! We have to be. Right? Right?! 

this would be the upcoming draft to get our due.

could be this: C's and the 3 teams that owe us their 1st all miss the playoffs but C's are in the 14th spot (giving us a great run for the playoffs), Dallas finishes with the 7th worst and Minny the 12th worst and Nets are somewhere in bottom 3 --> pre-lottery.
Lottery--C's and Nets get the first and second picks in some order.  The C's jumping into the top 3 pushes Dallas to the 8th pick removing their protections and Minny is pushed to 13th giving us theirs.

if the C's usual luck holds out-->C's and Nets both miraculously make the playoffs so 2 mid-round picks, Dallas finishes in the top 7 slots post-draft (most likely somewhere 8 or higher and jumping to the top 3 so the pick rolls over) and Minny finishes in the top 12 thereby transitioning to a pair of seconds.

How about this:  the C's young players take a leap forward and the team reaches the 2nd round of the playoffs, the Nets picks nets us the #1, the Dallas and Minny picks give us #8 an 13.  I like that scenario better.   

[slamtheking]

Considering our luck with the lottery, I fully expect Dallas to have the 8th worst record and to win a top 3 pick.

Were due! We have to be. Right? Right?! 

this would be the upcoming draft to get our due.

could be this: C's and the 3 teams that owe us their 1st all miss the playoffs but C's are in the 14th spot (giving us a great run for the playoffs), Dallas finishes with the 7th worst and Minny the 12th worst and Nets are somewhere in bottom 3 --> pre-lottery.
Lottery--C's and Nets get the first and second picks in some order.  The C's jumping into the top 3 pushes Dallas to the 8th pick removing their protections and Minny is pushed to 13th giving us theirs.

if the C's usual luck holds out-->C's and Nets both miraculously make the playoffs so 2 mid-round picks, Dallas finishes in the top 7 slots post-draft (most likely somewhere 8 or higher and jumping to the top 3 so the pick rolls over) and Minny finishes in the top 12 thereby transitioning to a pair of seconds.

How about this:  the C's young players take a leap forward and the team reaches the 2nd round of the playoffs, the Nets picks nets us the #1, the Dallas and Minny picks give us #8 an 13.  I like that scenario better.   

I think that would be better as well.

while we're at it -- C's players make a real leap forward and the team wins the title with the Nets giving us the #1, Dallas the #8 and Minny the #13.   I could live with the C's getting #30 in that case

[trickybilly]

Detroit will be much better, so will Milwaukee, Charlotte, and Miami. It's really only Philly and Indy that will definitely be worse.. but even Indy could rise with PG playing well again.

Magic and the Knicks are question marks

Just need one of Brooklyn's 'stars' to go down with an injury, and that pick will be top 5.

[slamtheking]

Detroit will be much better, so will Milwaukee, Charlotte, and Miami. It's really only Philly and Indy that will definitely be worse.. but even Indy could rise with PG playing well again.

Magic and the Knicks are question marks

Just need one of Brooklyn's 'stars' to go down with an injury, and that pick will be top 5.

I don't think you'll need to see an injury to one of Brooklyn's top players to see that team have a crappy record but if it did happen, I think it would sink them in the East standings rapidly.  only 2 teams in the East I think are legitimately worse than Brooklyn on day one are Philly and NY.  Possibly Indy depending on how Paul George returns and if the Hibbert/West departures end up benefiting their lockerroom and team effort.
Looking at how Orlando's players are developing so far this summer league (very early still), I think they start making the climb up the standings this year.
Of course, based on how the C's young players are looking in summer league and the quality of the players who aren't there -- C's could wind up worse than Brooklyn too.  We'll have to see how Lee and Amir improve the already-crowded frontcourt.

[Csfan1984]

Wonder if Zeller to Mavs would take top 7 protection off the pick lol

Zero chance of that happening, maybe Cuban goes after Hibbert or Lee now

The "lol" at end is so it's known the statement isn't serious.

[Csfan1984]

Was Robinson too old to tank? This Dirk being reason not to tank is silly.

[cltc5]

To clarify we have four 1st round picks next year with two possibly in the lottery?

[Csfan1984]

To clarify we have four 1st round picks next year with two possibly in the lottery?

3 possible lottery don't count the C's out just yet lol

[cltc5]

To clarify we have four 1st round picks next year with two possibly in the lottery?

3 possible lottery don't count the C's out just yet lol

Lol.  Thanks 

[Ilikesports17]

To clarify we have four 1st round picks next year with two possibly in the lottery?

3 possible lottery don't count the C's out just yet lol

Lol.  Thanks 

all 4 could wind up in the top  14 and it wouldnt be the most surprising thing ever.

however for that to happen a lot would have to go right for Minnesota (or wrong I guess dependig on how you look at it) Wiggins would have to make a big leap and Towns would have to be ROY caliber. Also Rubio and Pek would have to play the whole season at 100% probably.

[Rida]

The decision for Dallas is not as either/or as it's being made out to be in some posts here.

The key is that if they keep their 2016 pick the obligation rolls over to 2017 and they could lose that one. If they lose the 2016 pick they keep 2017 for sure. So, the trade off is a bit different.

For example they could very well say "we are cool giving up #10 in 2016, but we will really tank in 2017 when we know for sure we have that pick, and Dirk is even further in decline. That maximizes our chances of a top 3 pick."

Next summer they will have massive cap space so no guarantees the 2017 pick will be valuable.

2016 is a genuine chance for it to be a top 10 pick

[Boris Badenov]

The decision for Dallas is not as either/or as it's being made out to be in some posts here.

The key is that if they keep their 2016 pick the obligation rolls over to 2017 and they could lose that one. If they lose the 2016 pick they keep 2017 for sure. So, the trade off is a bit different.

For example they could very well say "we are cool giving up #10 in 2016, but we will really tank in 2017 when we know for sure we have that pick, and Dirk is even further in decline. That maximizes our chances of a top 3 pick."

Next summer they will have massive cap space so no guarantees the 2017 pick will be valuable.

2016 is a genuine chance for it to be a top 10 pick

I'm guessing that the decision to "really tank in 2017" would involve not using their cap space. They control that too.

[Ilikesports17]

The decision for Dallas is not as either/or as it's being made out to be in some posts here.

The key is that if they keep their 2016 pick the obligation rolls over to 2017 and they could lose that one. If they lose the 2016 pick they keep 2017 for sure. So, the trade off is a bit different.

For example they could very well say "we are cool giving up #10 in 2016, but we will really tank in 2017 when we know for sure we have that pick, and Dirk is even further in decline. That maximizes our chances of a top 3 pick."

Next summer they will have massive cap space so no guarantees the 2017 pick will be valuable.

2016 is a genuine chance for it to be a top 10 pick

this is why its tough for Dallas.

If they keep the band together (Dirk Parson Matthews) then they could well end up in the 8-12 range thus giving us a valuable pick and missing out on an opportunity to really suck and add a top top talent. However, if they do keep the band together they have a chance to sell a max guy or 2 on the thought that they already have that strong 2,3,4/5 in place so an elite 1 and 4/5 could vault them right to contention. If they deal one or more of the 3 and really suck then even with all that cap space they are really not an attractive destination. Theyd actually be a lot like LA or NYK and we saw how little they were able to accomplish this offseason.

The biggest issue would be keeping the gang together, forfeiting the pick to us then striking out again in FA because FAs view them as a a team on the downswing.

They are in a tough tough place right now.

[footey]

The DJ-cision as I like to call it ( i came up with that one myself  ) has a massive impact on not only the Mavericks but also our 2016 first rounder owed from the Mavs as a result of the Rondo trade (which now looks like a fleecing) at the time I remember people criticising DA saying he should have got more for Rondo.

Will the pick convey? Let's have a look at the scenarios bearing in mind that the pick is top 7 protected until 2021.

Keep in mind that as a 50 win team they ended up with the 7 seed last year, they project to be significantly worse this season

For the pick not to convey in 2016

First of all its going to come down to ping pong balls, it looks almost certain that the Mavs will miss the playoffs in the loaded west.

Guaranteed playoff teams-

Houston, San Antonio, GSW, Memphis, OKC, Clips

Knocking on the door

New Orleans, Utah, Phoenix

Will be worse than Dallas or in the similar tier

Denver, Sacramento, Lakers, Minnesota, Blazers

Question is are Dallas likely to have a bad enough record, last year the Pistons picked 8th with a 30-52 record. Could Dallas sink that low?

Right now it looks like they could, their starting 5 right now is :

Free agent PG/Harris, Wes Matthews (coming off an injury that nobody has ever come back from fully, Parsons, Dirk, and Free Agent Center

Its a pretty shocking state of affairs, I keep reading that Dallas wants to reboot now, how could they do this?

In order to reboot they need to trade Parsons and/or Matthews, which is unlikely to happen.

Their best option is to ride out the season and tank, get a top 7 pick and try and lure 2 max free agents when the cap jumps next year.

What do you guys think happens with our pick?

 As things stand without the Mavs making significant moves, do we wind up with this pick next year?

TP for the name, Rida!!