Author Topic: This looks like a lotto squad to me  (Read 36518 times)

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Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #60 on: July 05, 2015, 06:26:36 AM »

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So how many people think the Utah Jazz are going to win 54 games next year?
Around 50 wins -- high 40s, low 50s. I doubt they get into the mid 50s.

Utah were playing very well not only late last season but earlier in the year when Favors + Gobert were playing together. Those two are a nightmare to play against. Hayward made the leap last year. Alec Burks is back from injury. T.Burke and D.Exum are a year older. All are young guys who are still improving.

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #61 on: July 05, 2015, 06:44:49 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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This post conveniently ignores that we became the 2nd best team in the east post all star break.

Having the second best record is not necessarily the same as being the second best team.

I'm an optimist when it comes to the Cs, but the second best record fact is thrown around way too often. Playoff teams- or rather real contenders- were resting their players for large portions of the second half of the year. Winning games post All Star Break won't necessarily translate to winning games throughout the year.

cmon man, people that puff their chests out saying how great we were post-break don't want to be taken down with facts. 

this is exactly right.  everyone forgets that the only reason we made the playoffs at all is because the Cavs sat practically everyone twice against us in the last few weeks. and as far as tanking goes, we aren't going to openly tank, but i don't think we'll be all that good.  probably a middle of the road, low lottery pick unfortunately, like #10 or 11 overall, while the Nets claw their way (again) to the 8 seed. could be dark times ahead

If only we didn't held the tie-breaker over the Nets and the Pacers and if only we weren't up by two games in the standings,  yawn.


Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #62 on: July 05, 2015, 07:12:56 AM »

Offline rollie mass

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if it is a lotto squad
 it will at least be developing a culture of playing at the best of its ability-its a long regular season on which isiah feasts.Amir will make zeller better and our bigs will space and run all game
.Nobody will like to face the perimeter guard defense and regular season grit will win its fair share against the pampered all stars and teams that take the regular season as just warmup for playoffs or only play the last quarter and their stats
« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 08:49:09 AM by rollie mass »

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #63 on: July 05, 2015, 08:26:30 AM »

Offline incoherent

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Few people here on this thread seem to think we only got into the playoffs because the Cavs rested their starters for one game against us. 

That is an extremely short sided view point, as most teams do not rest their starters until the final week of the season,, 3-4 games.  Our team had a clear definitivite turning point after Rondo got traded.

What about all the games we won prior to the final games against CLE where the other team didn't rest their starters?

We beat Toronto in overtime on April 4th with Derozan playing 44 mins and all their staters getting heavy minutes.

We beat Charlotte and Indy on back to back games in early April, must win games for all teams no starters were rested.

We beat Brooklyn late march, BKN relied heavily on all their starters including a healthy Lopoez, late in march. Another must win for both teams.

In mid March we beat Memphis who didn't rest their starters. We beat ATL who didn't rest their starters in Feb.

Its not a knock on our team that we put ourselves in position to make the playoffs at the end of the season.

We finished the season with 6 straight wins and people are saying we only won cause the other team rested.  But we won the games we were suppose to win, we can't control who the teams put out there.  And we also won all the games we needed to before that final week to get ourselves in that spot. 



« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 08:52:54 AM by incoherent »

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #64 on: July 05, 2015, 08:29:52 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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Yeah it shouldn't surprise anyone that I'm the one posting this.  I'm a pessimist.  This team looked like a lotto squad to me last year too.  I'd guess it looked like a lotto squad to Ainge as well. 

All I know is that this team was bottom 10 with a few weeks left in the season... essentially tied with Charlotte.   Charlotte goes in one direction (losing MKG and Big Al to injury and finishing with 9 losses over their last 12 games)... Boston goes in another direction (late season surge while the league slept... win 9 out of their last 11 games).  Suddenly we're in the playoffs with a losing record.   I hope we build on that experience.

So this offseason we swapped out Bass for Amir and added some depth to the Red Claws.  Cool.  Maybe we'll be a bit better.   But I think there's a chance some of these teams behind us will catch up.  Let's look at them from the bottom up:

Knicks (17 wins):  Melo is back.  Melo made the playoffs the first 9 years of his career.  Typically 50+ win seasons.  Go ahead and knock him, but the guy has talent.   They added Aaron Afflalo and Robin Lopez.  Kyle O'Quinn is a serviceable starting PF with quality defense.  Point guard is a concern.  Who are they playing there... Jerian Grant or something?  I imagine Porzingus comes off the bench.   Maybe they should move Porzingus for Ty Lawson or something.  Not unthinkable that team will win 40+. 

Philly (18 wins):  Everything that can be said about them has been said about them.  Let's start by just saying they had a top 12 defense last year.  Noel showed major improvement the second half.  With him on the court, they had the best defense in the league.  So they add Okafor who should immediately be an offensive threat for the team.  I still think Embiid plays.  Stauskas is a nice shooter.  They'll get Wroten back.  It's starting to look like a basketball team.  At any point, they can probably trade one of their three bigs for a fool's ransom.  Boston, for instance, would probably give up half their lineup for Okafor.  I think as long as HInkie continues to be patient, this will be a lottery team, but it wouldn't be hard for this team to change gears if they want to.  Best assets in the league.

Orlando (25 wins):  I really like Orlando.  They might be one of the most exciting young teams in the league.  Anyone see Aaron Gordon tonight in summer league?  22 points, 18 boards and 2 blocks.  If that kid shows improvement this year, look out.  Check that lineup:  PG - Elfrid Payton, SG - Oladipo, SF - Tobias Harris, PF - Aaron Gordon, C - Vucevic... .with Mario Hezonja off the bench?  Who knows what that team will do.  Could they make a leap?  It's possible. 

Detroit (32 wins):  They lost Monroe.  My guess is they are going to be worse unless Drummond turns into a superstar.  They don't look like a threat to improve.  EDIT:  I'll plug in TheFlex's comments:  "Really disagree about Detroit. They were better with Anthony Tolliver's stretch 4 game replacing Monroe when Monroe was injured. They got two superior versions of Tolliver in Ilyasova and Marcus Morris and added Stanley Johnson. Reggie Jackson gets more time to learn what SVG wants and Jennings comes back from injury. If the Celts miss the playoffs, I think it'll be because the Pistons stole our spot."

Hornets (33 wins):  Who knows.  That team is completely dysfunctional.  They got hit with injuries last year.  If MKG, Al JEfferson and Kemba are healthy, they might get back into the playoffs (they made the playoffs in 2013-14).  The addition of Batum might help.  Maybe they'll see growth out of Zeller or maybe their infatuation with Kaminsky will pay off.  That team was even with us with about 11 games left in the season.  Not unthinkable that they'll be better than us this year.

Miami (37 wins): Getting Bosh back.  Adding Winslow.  PG - Dragic, SG Wade, SF Deng/Winslow, PF Bosh, C Whiteside...  I expect that to be a playoff team next year.

Pacers (38 wins): Welcome back Paul George.  Hello Monta Ellis.  Goodbye Hibbert.  Goodbye West?  I don't know what to make of the Pacers.  I say they have just as good a shot as we do to make the playoffs next year, though.  George and Ellis have game.

Brooklyn (38 wins):  That team showed real life down the stretch with Brook Lopez back in the starting lineup and the addition of Thad Young.  Everyone seems to think they are toast.  I don't get it.  They have been a playoff team two years in a row. I expect them to be back in the playoffs next year.

Boston (40 wins):   Swapped out Bass for Amir.   Added some depth to the Red Claws.  That's about it.

I wouldn't say it's unthinkable that we'll make the playoffs next year.  I just think we overachieved to begin with.  We're going to need some real progress out of Smart, Sully, Young, etc.   We need Amir Johnson to be a revelation.   Otherwise, I think we could very easily win 35 games and barely miss out.

Note:  Boston is a roster built for trades.   I have to imagine we'll make a trade at some point.  It looks like a lotto squad to me RIGHT NOW.  I don't know what this team will look like in February. 
yup - knew you were the author just by the title of the post.

I rarely agree with you -- in fact most of your posts aggravate the hell out of me (I think that Andy Kaufman avatar plays a part in it -- but you're dead on with this.  TP for clearly laying out the scene in the East and not stretching reality to make your point.

I do disagree on the Nets though.  I think they're going to be even worse this year and won't come close to sniffing the playoffs.

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #65 on: July 05, 2015, 08:54:31 AM »

Offline MBunge

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This post conveniently ignores that we became the 2nd best team in the east post all star break.

Having the second best record is not necessarily the same as being the second best team.

I'm an optimist when it comes to the Cs, but the second best record fact is thrown around way too often. Playoff teams- or rather real contenders- were resting their players for large portions of the second half of the year. Winning games post All Star Break won't necessarily translate to winning games throughout the year.

There's some truth to that, but why was Boston the only team to take advantage of it?  Miami wasn't tanking last season.  Neither was Indy or Orlando or Detroit or Utah, yet it is Boston who went on a post-all-star tear.

Mike

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #66 on: July 05, 2015, 08:56:02 AM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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I don't understand how anyone can definitively say this is "lottery team" or this is a "playoff team".

it's the east, who knows where we stand. 

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #67 on: July 05, 2015, 08:58:28 AM »

Offline Eja117

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Let me start with this: you can see LarBrd33's whole pessimistic philosophy on the C's played out perfectly here. Pretty much every other team gets the benefit of the doubt, and the C's get pessimism and one line lol

This is a completely fair point.   :)
i don't equate the addition of rookies projected in the 2nd round the same as bonafied NBA starters.  Boston swapped one mediocre starter (bass) for another (amir).... Beyond that we didn't do anything.  Other teams have made real additions.  I see this as a lotto team.
Please find me major mock drafts that had Rozier and Hunter going in the 2nd round. Or say you were wrong. If you do I will say so.

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #68 on: July 05, 2015, 09:10:32 AM »

Offline dreamgreen

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WOW one of the best threads in a while IMO, good arguments on both sides. I'll some up everything I can remember after reading all the posts.

I agree looks like a lotto team as I've been saying 37 wins, roster as is.

Danny is to blame right now for keeping us in this horrible position. Signing Amir right now makes ZERO sense and I think PhoSita said it best - this team is a team of assets that Danny is putting his career on the line praying to make a big trade. Unfortunately he has picked the worse time NBA history to do this. With the cap going up so much in the future no team will need to dump players to position themselves. Every team will believe that next summer they have a chance to land the best free agents. I fully expect that plan to crash and burn, so Danny better hope we land a good draft pick next year.

This team is very deep and right now only AB and IT  :-X separate themselves from the rest of back-ups. Best thing we can say is everyone is replaceable on the roster, which means you lack superior talent.

The Jazz will about the same amount of games us as, they have 2-3 players that are better than anyone we have but they are in the west so it's not enough.

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #69 on: July 05, 2015, 09:21:20 AM »

Offline MBunge

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Yeah it shouldn't surprise anyone that I'm the one posting this.  I'm a pessimist.  This team looked like a lotto squad to me last year too.  I'd guess it looked like a lotto squad to Ainge as well. 

All I know is that this team was bottom 10 with a few weeks left in the season... essentially tied with Charlotte.   Charlotte goes in one direction (losing MKG and Big Al to injury and finishing with 9 losses over their last 12 games)... Boston goes in another direction (late season surge while the league slept... win 9 out of their last 11 games).  Suddenly we're in the playoffs with a losing record.   I hope we build on that experience.

So this offseason we swapped out Bass for Amir and added some depth to the Red Claws.  Cool.  Maybe we'll be a bit better.   But I think there's a chance some of these teams behind us will catch up.  Let's look at them from the bottom up:

Knicks (17 wins):  Melo is back.  Melo made the playoffs the first 9 years of his career.  Typically 50+ win seasons.  Go ahead and knock him, but the guy has talent.   They added Aaron Afflalo and Robin Lopez.  Kyle O'Quinn is a serviceable starting PF with quality defense.  Point guard is a concern.  Who are they playing there... Jerian Grant or something?  I imagine Porzingus comes off the bench.   Maybe they should move Porzingus for Ty Lawson or something.  Not unthinkable that team will win 40+. 

Philly (18 wins):  Everything that can be said about them has been said about them.  Let's start by just saying they had a top 12 defense last year.  Noel showed major improvement the second half.  With him on the court, they had the best defense in the league.  So they add Okafor who should immediately be an offensive threat for the team.  I still think Embiid plays.  Stauskas is a nice shooter.  They'll get Wroten back.  It's starting to look like a basketball team.  At any point, they can probably trade one of their three bigs for a fool's ransom.  Boston, for instance, would probably give up half their lineup for Okafor.  I think as long as HInkie continues to be patient, this will be a lottery team, but it wouldn't be hard for this team to change gears if they want to.  Best assets in the league.

Orlando (25 wins):  I really like Orlando.  They might be one of the most exciting young teams in the league.  Anyone see Aaron Gordon tonight in summer league?  22 points, 18 boards and 2 blocks.  If that kid shows improvement this year, look out.  Check that lineup:  PG - Elfrid Payton, SG - Oladipo, SF - Tobias Harris, PF - Aaron Gordon, C - Vucevic... .with Mario Hezonja off the bench?  Who knows what that team will do.  Could they make a leap?  It's possible. 

Detroit (32 wins):  They lost Monroe.  My guess is they are going to be worse unless Drummond turns into a superstar.  They don't look like a threat to improve.  EDIT:  I'll plug in TheFlex's comments:  "Really disagree about Detroit. They were better with Anthony Tolliver's stretch 4 game replacing Monroe when Monroe was injured. They got two superior versions of Tolliver in Ilyasova and Marcus Morris and added Stanley Johnson. Reggie Jackson gets more time to learn what SVG wants and Jennings comes back from injury. If the Celts miss the playoffs, I think it'll be because the Pistons stole our spot."

Hornets (33 wins):  Who knows.  That team is completely dysfunctional.  They got hit with injuries last year.  If MKG, Al JEfferson and Kemba are healthy, they might get back into the playoffs (they made the playoffs in 2013-14).  The addition of Batum might help.  Maybe they'll see growth out of Zeller or maybe their infatuation with Kaminsky will pay off.  That team was even with us with about 11 games left in the season.  Not unthinkable that they'll be better than us this year.

Miami (37 wins): Getting Bosh back.  Adding Winslow.  PG - Dragic, SG Wade, SF Deng/Winslow, PF Bosh, C Whiteside...  I expect that to be a playoff team next year.

Pacers (38 wins): Welcome back Paul George.  Hello Monta Ellis.  Goodbye Hibbert.  Goodbye West?  I don't know what to make of the Pacers.  I say they have just as good a shot as we do to make the playoffs next year, though.  George and Ellis have game.

Brooklyn (38 wins):  That team showed real life down the stretch with Brook Lopez back in the starting lineup and the addition of Thad Young.  Everyone seems to think they are toast.  I don't get it.  They have been a playoff team two years in a row. I expect them to be back in the playoffs next year.

Boston (40 wins):   Swapped out Bass for Amir.   Added some depth to the Red Claws.  That's about it.

I wouldn't say it's unthinkable that we'll make the playoffs next year.  I just think we overachieved to begin with.  We're going to need some real progress out of Smart, Sully, Young, etc.   We need Amir Johnson to be a revelation.   Otherwise, I think we could very easily win 35 games and barely miss out.

Note:  Boston is a roster built for trades.   I have to imagine we'll make a trade at some point.  It looks like a lotto squad to me RIGHT NOW.  I don't know what this team will look like in February.

Your problem is not pessimism.

When you can go into detail about other teams but when it comes to the team of which you are supposedly a fan, you leave out that we're bringing back Crowder and IT, two guys who were key to Boston's second half surge...that's not pessimism.

When you are more impressed with what Aaron Gordon does in one Summer League game than seemingly anything any Celtic player has ever done...that's not pessimism.

When you look at  the Knicks, who added a journeyman center, a journeyman 2 guard, a draft bust, a non-lottery pick and a kid whom even his fans say isn't physically ready for the NBA, and think they might win 23+ more games next season...that's not pessimism.

And when you show more enthusiasm for Nik Stauskus, Bismack Biyombo and Anthony Bennett than anyone on the current Celtics' roster...that's not pessimism.

Your problem isn't that you are pessimistic about Boston.  The problem is that you are pessimistic about Boston and its players while being optimistic about teams and players who are demonstrably worse.

Be pessimistic.  Just stop trying so hard to be smarter than everybody else.

Mike

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #70 on: July 05, 2015, 09:31:07 AM »

Offline NYDan

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I appreciate a realistic approach, but this exercise feels pretty skewed. I watch plenty of other teams and just don't get the outlook for some of these East teams and players while the C's get a snarky blurb about the D-League.

I wouldn't be surprised if the team wins 30 wins, wouldn't be surprised if they win 45. I haven't forgotten how enjoyable and gritty last years team was despite the lack of big moves this summer and I feel continuity and chemistry is habitually underrated. I've watched the Knicks bumble their rebuild for a decade plus because they lacked patience, don't want to see that happen here. Also feel our assets aren't as worthless as some have come to believe, we will at least be in the hunt for any major players that want out. I get that slow rides can be frustrating and the grass is always greener, but outright pessimism just isn't for me I suppose.

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #71 on: July 05, 2015, 09:32:49 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
I'm a pessimist.
  To me that means your a realist.

Quote
Danny is to blame right now for keeping us in this horrible position. Signing Amir right now makes ZERO sense and I think PhoSita said it best - this team is a team of assets that Danny is putting his career on the line praying to make a big trade. Unfortunately he has picked the worse time NBA history to do this. With the cap going up so much in the future no team will need to dump players to position themselves. Every team will believe that next summer they have a chance to land the best free agents. I fully expect that plan to crash and burn, so Danny better hope we land a good draft pick next year.
   

The only place his career is on the line is in the fantasies of some posters.   He has won a championship that buys a lot of good will.  I think the owners are absolutely behind him after that.   

http://www.basketball-reference.com/executives/aingeda01x.html

Most of his deals we came out ahead folks.

The trouble is with a rebuild is that you have to land a franchise talent when you tank.   I am not sure we did that with Smart.   But I hope I am wrong in that regard and that does not mean he is not going to become a good player.

BOTTOM IS THIS:   We would be in even worse shape if we didn't have Ainge.   Ainge traded PP and KG, most would not have done that.   With picks we at least have the chance of landing a player.   I lived through several rebuilds, they are rough.   Quick fixes generally do not work, 2008 was a rare thing orchestrated by Ainge.

I think Ainge learned not to reach for some of the slow unathletic guys like Sully and Oly and he did not do that this draft.  Talent is what a guy is born with, skilled guys are ok as a final element to a team but you do not always build around them.   Athletes can in the long run learn skills and an athletes with skills will generally trump a skill guy who is not athletic.

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #72 on: July 05, 2015, 09:46:59 AM »

Offline Robb

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Quote
BOTTOM IS THIS:   We would be in even worse shape if we didn't have Ainge.   Ainge traded PP and KG, most would not have done that.   With picks we at least have the chance of landing a player.   I lived through several rebuilds, they are rough.  Quick fixes generally do not work, 2008 was a rare thing orchestrated by Ainge.

I see this last quote a lot. He had to do a lot of work between 2003 and 2007 to assemble a team that could win a championship, and there were even some surprisingly good teams in there and some times when he made deals to push for the playoffs even though the team was probably not going to contend. It was an up and down thing.
We're the ones we've been waiting for.

Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #73 on: July 05, 2015, 09:57:58 AM »

Offline bballdog384

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I appreciate a realistic approach, but this exercise feels pretty skewed. I watch plenty of other teams and just don't get the outlook for some of these East teams and players while the C's get a snarky blurb about the D-League.

I wouldn't be surprised if the team wins 30 wins, wouldn't be surprised if they win 45. I haven't forgotten how enjoyable and gritty last years team was despite the lack of big moves this summer and I feel continuity and chemistry is habitually underrated. I've watched the Knicks bumble their rebuild for a decade plus because they lacked patience, don't want to see that happen here. Also feel our assets aren't as worthless as some have come to believe, we will at least be in the hunt for any major players that want out. I get that slow rides can be frustrating and the grass is always greener, but outright pessimism just isn't for me I suppose.

You touch on a very important point here. The C's were fun to watch last year and they are bringing the same team back for another go. Some things wont change - we all know the C's will play with heart, will play as a team, and will put up a fight against any team they play - no matter the talent they are facing.

The C's currently lack the talent to win a playoff series against a legit contender, but they will play harder than every team they face. They have a legit shot at winning the Atlantic division. No one knows how the season will play out, but I'm excited to watch this team.
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Re: This looks like a lotto squad to me
« Reply #74 on: July 05, 2015, 10:01:48 AM »

Offline BlackCeltic

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I don't understand how anyone can definitively say this is "lottery team" or this is a "playoff team".

it's the east, who knows where we stand.

This, and you have to believe the Knicks are a playoff team if Melo stays healthy.