This looks like a lotto squad to me

[LooseCannon]

The Celtics have a reasonable shot at improving both their defense and three-point shooting.  If they do both, they should be very likely to improve their record.

[Eja117]

I think we have to face facts that we have a top two coach in the league that won't allow for regressing. And a leader in Smart that is already telling the James Youngs to shape up or sit the bench and ship out. This isn't the Pitino/Toine Celtics.

[jambr380]

Hard to see a healthy Miami squad missing the playoffs. Everybody else seems up for grabs.

It's easy to look at the Celtics and think they lack star power and they just got lucky last year, but they aren't a team based on a lot of highs and lows. Their defense is top notch - especially at the guard and wing positions. They also have a roster closer to resembling Stevens' style of play - everybody knows their place and the players really seem to buy into his system. Finally, the roster really did perform well once the trade deadline passed (2nd best behind Cavs, blah blah blah).

Listen, I agree that it's hard to get behind this team as an upper-tier threat and pre-season rankings will probably place the team in the 9-11 range, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish as high as 5th in the conference, with a couple of players making a mini-leap. I also believe this isn't the roster we will see come opening day - there will have to be some kind-of consolidation of players.

Overall, nice post LB - you laid out very well what needed to be said given the underwhelming draft and FA signings.

[Eja117]

LarBrd........what if the team signed Biyombo?  Then would the team have had a chance?

[Eja117]

If only the team had signed Biyombo and traded all our young assets for Joel Embiid. Then we would have had a shot. Stupid Danny Ainge, not blowing up a young playoff team.

[bostonsportsforlife]

I like to be realistic, but dear god, the pessimism on this board lately is insane. I actually really like our offseason moves (kill me?). Hopefully some trades come but I'm honestly okay with being a fringe playoff team. Next summer is showtime, if Danny has done nothing by this time next year, I'll jump on the pessimism train, for now, I'm excited for the season.

[PhoSita]

I like to be realistic, but dear god, the pessimism on this board lately is insane. I actually really like our offseason moves (kill me?). Hopefully some trades come but I'm honestly okay with being a fringe playoff team. Next summer is showtime, if Danny has done nothing by this time next year, I'll jump on the pessimism train, for now, I'm excited for the season.

I'm a pessimist, I guess, but even I think it's totally fair to think the team could be solid again next year.  By that I mean 40-45 wins and a low playoff seed.

I feel like we were saying the same thing last summer, though.  "Next summer is showtime.  That's when the big stuff will really happen."  I'm disappointed because I'm not that confident in where the team is headed right now, not because I'm expecting the team to be terrible next year.

[gpap]

In response to the OP:

Unfortunately, it's looking that way and I think this is the direction Ainge is heading (pretty much same direction he's been headed the last 2 years.)

Put an awful roster on the floor with the hope the team ends up in the lottery.

I also think based on the free agent snubs that Ainge has come to the conclusion the only way we end up landing a star is through the draft.

It's not looking good for this season.

[sawick48]

having Indiana that low is pretty preposterous.  does everyone forget just how good that team/defense is with a healthy paul george?  and they have Mahinmi to step in for Hibbert.  not a huge downgrade there as far as rim protection goes. 

and speaking strictly about talent, Brooklyn has more than we do.  Pistons arguably do too.

[gpap]

Ok so here are some questions......Amir Johnson. It's an upgrade, right? I mean when you get the starting pf from the 3 seed in your conference at a reasonable price it's good right?

I hope so.  But why is Amir getting all the credit for Toronto's 3-seed?  That team has talent on it. 

And also, I fear that we are underestimating Brandon Bass.  He was arguably the most consistent scorer on the team last year.  He's a servicable defender.  He averaged 12 points, 6 rebounds on 55% shooting over the second half.  He's one of the best mid-range shooting big men in the entire league.  I don't think we make the playoffs without Bass playing a key part of it.  

I hope Amir makes a bit of an improvement... but we could struggle for the same reasons we struggled last season:  Too many mediocre parts and a lack of defined roles.  It wasn't until guys got injured and Ainge traded away guys that we started seeing a solid rotation and the players started to overachieve under Stevens' leadership.  I'm not expecting it to happen again.

I couldn't disagree any more about this. I'm glad Bass is gone as his time has come to an end. He didn't play a bigger part in making the playoffs than anyone else on the team. Also, Amir is definitely an upgrade.

[PhoSita]

I also think based on the free agent snubs that Ainge has come to the conclusion the only way we end up landing a star is through the draft.

On the contrary, signing vets to these large unguaranteed contracts signals to me that Ainge is not concerned with trying to get talent higher in the draft.  Nor does it seem like he's intent on signing second or third tier free agents, even if the player is young and might be a bargain long term. 

Instead, it seems he's focused entirely on setting himself up to make a blockbuster trade or two for an elite talent.  From what I can tell, all of the eggs are in that basket.  If no such trade materializes, we're basically left hoping that one of these guys selected in the mid to late 1st round turns into a star.

[Who]

Orlando (25 wins):  I really like Orlando.  They might be one of the most exciting young teams in the league.  Anyone see Aaron Gordon tonight in summer league?  22 points, 18 boards and 2 blocks.  If that kid shows improvement this year, look out.  Check that lineup:  PG - Elfrid Payton, SG - Oladipo, SF - Tobias Harris, PF - Aaron Gordon, C - Vucevic... .with Mario Hezonja off the bench?  Who knows what that team will do.  Could they make a leap?  It's possible. 

Orlando are a team I have been thinking about today as well. They look well assembled to make a leap next year. I am a big fan of Scott Skiles. He is a terrific coach. Develops young players. Gets teams to play together. Uses depth very well. Superb defensive coach. Perhaps the best defensive coach in the league. He wears out his welcome after a few years but he does some great things before that happens. I think Skiles is perfect for this team.

PG: E.Payton, CJ Watson
SG: Oladipo, Fournier
SF: T.Harris, Hezonja, Harkless
PF: A.Gordon, C.Frye
 C: Vucevic, (big gaping hole)

Except for that backup center spot ... Orlando's depth is very impressive.

Lots of quickness and athleticism. Lots of young players who are improving all the time.

And I think Skiles is the best man to teach Vucevic how to play some interior defense.

------------------------

This is a much more talented squad than I had realized.

[jambr380]

In response to the OP:

Unfortunately, it's looking that way and I think this is the direction Ainge is heading (pretty much same direction he's been headed the last 2 years.)

Put an awful roster on the floor with the hope the team ends up in the lottery.

I also think based on the free agent snubs that Ainge has come to the conclusion the only way we end up landing a star is through the draft.

It's not looking good for this season.

I would agree, but then why sign Amir Johnson for $12M this year? If Ainge was really pushing for the lottery, wouldn't it have made much more sense to leave open the roster spot and salary space to absorb an unwanted player (and pick) from another team?

For better or worse, I believe Ainge really is trying to put a quality team out there, but also making sure he has as much financial flexibility next year. It certainly is possible to transition to a great team without bottoming out, but a major trade or FA signing is a must. Until that happens, we are going biting our nails hoping that an all-star will see our improving team and want to join.

[sawick48]

assuming no Mega trades before the season and rosters for the most part stay as is here's how i see the East (and yes, i'm aware that this and $4 gets me a coffee at Starbucks, but anyway):

definite playoff teams:

1- Cavs
2 - Miami
3 - Chicago
4 - Atlanta
5 - Washington
6 - Indiana

teams with enough talent to make the playoffs:
7 - Milwaukee
8 - Toronto
9 - Brooklyn
10 - Charlotte
11 - Boston

need a lot to go right to make playoffs:
12 - Detroit
13 - Knicks
14 - Orlando

The Sixers
15 - The Sixers


i've been hitting this drum for a while but i think people around here are forgetting just how much had to go right for us to get those 38 wins last year (just as an example if Cleveland doesn't half ass those 2 games in the last 2 weeks of the season by us we probably finish #9 in the East).  now all that said, that 2nd group to me is full of teams that are going to finish somewhere between 33-41 wins.  could be a cluster down by the 7, 8 seeds, with the Pistons and Knicks having potential to join the party depending on what happens during the season.

I know im more pessimistic than most around here, but i just don't see this as a repeat playoff team this season, not that that's a bad thing. 

[Eja117]

Ok so here are some questions......Amir Johnson. It's an upgrade, right? I mean when you get the starting pf from the 3 seed in your conference at a reasonable price it's good right?

I hope so.  But why is Amir getting all the credit for Toronto's 3-seed?  That team has talent on it. 

And also, I fear that we are underestimating Brandon Bass.  He was arguably the most consistent scorer on the team last year.  He's a servicable defender.  He averaged 12 points, 6 rebounds on 55% shooting over the second half.  He's one of the best mid-range shooting big men in the entire league.  I don't think we make the playoffs without Bass playing a key part of it.  

I hope Amir makes a bit of an improvement... but we could struggle for the same reasons we struggled last season:  Too many mediocre parts and a lack of defined roles.  It wasn't until guys got injured and Ainge traded away guys that we started seeing a solid rotation and the players started to overachieve under Stevens' leadership.  I'm not expecting it to happen again.

I couldn't disagree any more about this. I'm glad Bass is gone as his time has come to an end. He didn't play a bigger part in making the playoffs than anyone else on the team. Also, Amir is definitely an upgrade.

Bass was an above average guy but his big thing was the long two and Amir is definitely an upgrade. You can't tell me if you trade last year Bass for Amir that the Raptors get better and we get worse. Not buying that at all.