This looks like a lotto squad to me

[LarBrd33]

Yeah it shouldn't surprise anyone that I'm the one posting this.  I'm a pessimist.  This team looked like a lotto squad to me last year too.  I'd guess it looked like a lotto squad to Ainge as well. 

All I know is that this team was bottom 10 with a few weeks left in the season... essentially tied with Charlotte.   Charlotte goes in one direction (losing MKG and Big Al to injury and finishing with 9 losses over their last 12 games)... Boston goes in another direction (late season surge while the league slept... win 9 out of their last 11 games).  Suddenly we're in the playoffs with a losing record.   I hope we build on that experience.

So this offseason we swapped out Bass for Amir and added some depth to the Red Claws.  Cool.  Maybe we'll be a bit better.   But I think there's a chance some of these teams behind us will catch up.  Let's look at them from the bottom up:

Knicks (17 wins):  Melo is back.  Melo made the playoffs the first 9 years of his career.  Typically 50+ win seasons.  Go ahead and knock him, but the guy has talent.   They added Aaron Afflalo and Robin Lopez.  Kyle O'Quinn is a serviceable starting PF with quality defense.  Point guard is a concern.  Who are they playing there... Jerian Grant or something?  I imagine Porzingus comes off the bench.   Maybe they should move Porzingus for Ty Lawson or something.  Not unthinkable that team will win 40+. 

Philly (18 wins):  Everything that can be said about them has been said about them.  Let's start by just saying they had a top 12 defense last year.  Noel showed major improvement the second half.  With him on the court, they had the best defense in the league.  So they add Okafor who should immediately be an offensive threat for the team.  I still think Embiid plays.  Stauskas is a nice shooter.  They'll get Wroten back.  It's starting to look like a basketball team.  At any point, they can probably trade one of their three bigs for a fool's ransom.  Boston, for instance, would probably give up half their lineup for Okafor.  I think as long as HInkie continues to be patient, this will be a lottery team, but it wouldn't be hard for this team to change gears if they want to.  Best assets in the league.

Orlando (25 wins):  I really like Orlando.  They might be one of the most exciting young teams in the league.  Anyone see Aaron Gordon tonight in summer league?  22 points, 18 boards and 2 blocks.  If that kid shows improvement this year, look out.  Check that lineup:  PG - Elfrid Payton, SG - Oladipo, SF - Tobias Harris, PF - Aaron Gordon, C - Vucevic... .with Mario Hezonja off the bench?  Who knows what that team will do.  Could they make a leap?  It's possible. 

Detroit (32 wins):  They lost Monroe.  My guess is they are going to be worse unless Drummond turns into a superstar.  They don't look like a threat to improve.  EDIT:  I'll plug in TheFlex's comments:  "Really disagree about Detroit. They were better with Anthony Tolliver's stretch 4 game replacing Monroe when Monroe was injured. They got two superior versions of Tolliver in Ilyasova and Marcus Morris and added Stanley Johnson. Reggie Jackson gets more time to learn what SVG wants and Jennings comes back from injury. If the Celts miss the playoffs, I think it'll be because the Pistons stole our spot."

Hornets (33 wins):  Who knows.  That team is completely dysfunctional.  They got hit with injuries last year.  If MKG, Al JEfferson and Kemba are healthy, they might get back into the playoffs (they made the playoffs in 2013-14).  The addition of Batum might help.  Maybe they'll see growth out of Zeller or maybe their infatuation with Kaminsky will pay off.  That team was even with us with about 11 games left in the season.  Not unthinkable that they'll be better than us this year.

Miami (37 wins): Getting Bosh back.  Adding Winslow.  PG - Dragic, SG Wade, SF Deng/Winslow, PF Bosh, C Whiteside...  I expect that to be a playoff team next year.

Pacers (38 wins): Welcome back Paul George.  Hello Monta Ellis.  Goodbye Hibbert.  Goodbye West?  I don't know what to make of the Pacers.  I say they have just as good a shot as we do to make the playoffs next year, though.  George and Ellis have game.

Brooklyn (38 wins):  That team showed real life down the stretch with Brook Lopez back in the starting lineup and the addition of Thad Young.  Everyone seems to think they are toast.  I don't get it.  They have been a playoff team two years in a row. I expect them to be back in the playoffs next year.

Boston (40 wins):   Swapped out Bass for Amir.   Added some depth to the Red Claws.  That's about it.

I wouldn't say it's unthinkable that we'll make the playoffs next year.  I just think we overachieved to begin with.  We're going to need some real progress out of Smart, Sully, Young, etc.   We need Amir Johnson to be a revelation.   Otherwise, I think we could very easily win 35 games and barely miss out.

Note:  Boston is a roster built for trades.   I have to imagine we'll make a trade at some point.  It looks like a lotto squad to me RIGHT NOW.  I don't know what this team will look like in February. 

[TheFlex]

Really disagree about Detroit. They were better with Anthony Tolliver's stretch 4 game replacing Monroe when Monroe was injured. They got two superior versions of Tolliver in Ilyasova and Marcus Morris and added Stanley Johnson. Reggie Jackson gets more time to learn what SVG wants and Jennings comes back from injury. If the Celts miss the playoffs, I think it'll be because the Pistons stole our spot.

[Waew]

we'll be a lotto squad for a while. we made the playoffs as a below .500 team as an unfortunate fluke.

[LarBrd33]

Really disagree about Detroit. They were better with Anthony Tolliver's stretch 4 game replacing Monroe when Monroe was injured. They got two superior versions of Tolliver in Ilyasova and Marcus Morris and added Stanley Johnson. Reggie Jackson gets more time to learn what SVG wants and Jennings comes back from injury. If the Celts miss the playoffs, I think it'll be because the Pistons stole our spot.

Well there you have it... the one team I thought we didn't have to worry about is the one team you think is a threat.  Fair enough.  I edited my post and included your comments.

[Eja117]

Ok so here are some questions......Amir Johnson. It's an upgrade, right? I mean when you get the starting pf from the 3 seed in your conference at a reasonable price it's good right?

Last year....the team got way better after Rondo left and Jae Crowder showed up, right? Where is Rondo now? Where is Jae now? Exactly. The whole year. With a full training camp.

You say "If so and so is healthy"......well then I get to say "If KO and Sully are at full health this year".

Speaking of health....let's look at that for a minute. What do we see?  Melo is 31 I think coming back from major injury. Al J ....does he EVER play a full season? Did he ever?  D Wade, Bosh, Deng....what are the odds on those guys going a whole season. Derron Williams and Brook Lopez?  Sure. They could. They might. Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid. How many ACL snaps and broken backs and fractured feet between the two of them? Paul George. I'm looking forward to him playing in the NBA again because I wasn't sure he'd ever walk again.

Orlando. They're the real deal. But I'll put my guards up against theirs any day. And I'm pretty sure if Amir Johnson had been in the D League game today he could have got 19 rebs and maybe even some blocks too.  Heck. I remember when KO ruled that thing last year.

[LarBrd33]

Ok so here are some questions......Amir Johnson. It's an upgrade, right? I mean when you get the starting pf from the 3 seed in your conference at a reasonable price it's good right?

I hope so.  But why is Amir getting all the credit for Toronto's 3-seed?  That team has talent on it. 

And also, I fear that we are underestimating Brandon Bass.  He was arguably the most consistent scorer on the team last year.  He's a servicable defender.  He averaged 12 points, 6 rebounds on 55% shooting over the second half.  He's one of the best mid-range shooting big men in the entire league.  I don't think we make the playoffs without Bass playing a key part of it.   

I hope Amir makes a bit of an improvement... but we could struggle for the same reasons we struggled last season:  Too many mediocre parts and a lack of defined roles.  It wasn't until guys got injured and Ainge traded away guys that we started seeing a solid rotation and the players started to overachieve under Stevens' leadership.  I'm not expecting it to happen again.

[TheFlex]

Really disagree about Detroit. They were better with Anthony Tolliver's stretch 4 game replacing Monroe when Monroe was injured. They got two superior versions of Tolliver in Ilyasova and Marcus Morris and added Stanley Johnson. Reggie Jackson gets more time to learn what SVG wants and Jennings comes back from injury. If the Celts miss the playoffs, I think it'll be because the Pistons stole our spot.

Well there you have it... the one team I thought we didn't have to worry about is the one team you think is a threat.  Fair enough.  I edited my post and included your comments.

TP. I think the Celts will be better than you give them credit for, though. We'll have to wait and see.

[Eja117]

Ok so here are some questions......Amir Johnson. It's an upgrade, right? I mean when you get the starting pf from the 3 seed in your conference at a reasonable price it's good right?

I hope so.  But why is Amir getting all the credit for Toronto's 3-seed?  That team has talent on it. 

And also, I fear that we are underestimating Brandon Bass.  He was arguably the most consistent scorer on the team last year.  He's a servicable defender.  He averaged 12 points, 6 rebounds on 55% shooting over the second half.  He's one of the best mid-range shooting big men in the entire league.  I don't think we make the playoffs without Bass playing a key part of it.   

I hope Amir makes a bit of an improvement... but we could struggle for the same reasons we struggled last season:  Too many mediocre parts and a lack of defined roles.  It wasn't until guys got injured and Ainge traded away guys that we started seeing a solid rotation and the players started to overachieve under Stevens' leadership.  I'm not expecting it to happen again.

So you expect one of the youngest teams in the league to regress despite adding a better starter and other pieces? 
I wouldn't exactly say we struggled last year compared to a lot of these teams. We were struggling, and then moved Rondo and then picked up IT.

IT played 21 whole games for us last year. We are going to be solid at the guard and wing spots, have better shooting, and be better up front.

I am very very not worried about Philly who is one toe stub away from absolute disaster or about Orlando or Charlotte or really any of these teams.  I know Avery Bradley alone is capable of giving D Wade nightmares.

Oh heyyyy Paul George. Welcome back. How's the leg? No really, how is it because Marcus Smart is about to guard you. Welcome back.

[PhoSita]

If this is the Celtics team we have when the season starts, I think the most likely outcome will be about 35 wins.

If everything goes right and the team overachieves, as they did last year, I could see them reaching as high as 45 wins.

Conversely, if lots of things go wrong, this team could end up in the low 20s.  That would take a lot of misfortune, though, because there's just so much depth on the team.  That is the primary strength of the roster at the moment.


I'm gonna say 35 wins, though.  Will that be enough to make the playoffs?  I sure hope not.  Yes, there are a lot of teams that appear prepared to up their win total from last year and compete for those bottom spots in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.  The same was true this time last year, though.

[PhoSita]

So you expect one of the youngest teams in the league to regress despite adding a better starter and other pieces? 

The overall youth and inexperience of the team is a great reason to expect them to regress.  None of these guys has any long term track record of success, individually or playing together.  These guys don't have any long term track record playing together, period.  The only guy who has had a consistent role on this team for an extended period of time is Avery Bradley, and I won't be surprised if he's gone before the season starts.

Young teams go up and down all the time because they haven't figured out how to consistently win in this league yet.  And the most common reason for young teams to increase their win totals is because of talented but raw young guys figuring things out and blossoming.  The signature trait of this Celts team is the lack of that kind of upside.

[Eja117]

So you expect one of the youngest teams in the league to regress despite adding a better starter and other pieces? 

The overall youth and inexperience of the team is a great reason to expect them to regress.  None of these guys has any long term track record of success, individually or playing together.  These guys don't have any long term track record playing together, period.  The only guy who has had a consistent role on this team for an extended period of time is Avery Bradley, and I won't be surprised if he's gone before the season starts.

Young teams go up and down all the time because they haven't figured out how to consistently win in this league yet.  And the most common reason for young teams to increase their win totals is because of talented but raw young guys figuring things out and blossoming.  The signature trait of this Celts team is the lack of that kind of upside.

Give me a young team coming off a good year with a full training camp ahead of a broken down old veteran team (Brooklyn, Miami, Indiana) any day.

Orlando isn't going to regress either.  Charlotte. That team could go either way.  Philly. They will continue to be a joke, despite all their upside.

[jpotter33]

Let me start with this: you can see LarBrd33's whole pessimistic philosophy on the C's played out perfectly here. Pretty much every other team gets the benefit of the doubt, and the C's get pessimism and one line lol

In all seriousness, though, you're probably right. Those 9 teams are SERIOUSLY close together in competitiveness, and with the exception of Philly (who I fully expect to tank one more year) and whoever ends up falling out of the race midway through the season (I'm looking at you Orlando), every other team is going to be trying to make the playoffs by having a legitimate shot at making it.

If there was any year to tank, it'd be this year. This past season we couldn't, because several other teams in our conference were already tanking and we were just good enough not to suck. We'd more than likely only be competing with Philly from the get-go, and we have incentive to tank since we also have two other picks that have a very good shot at being lottery picks.

Sell off IT, Bradley, Turner, Amir, JJ and everybody else and roll with our young guys! Thon Maker and Simmons here we come! 

But we won't do that, because we're waiting on that magic bullet trade that is going to save the franchise 

[guava_wrench]

I think we can challenge for one of the bottom playoff slots as there are a number of not very good teams in the East. I don't expect us to be any better than last season, but who know?

[Celtics4ever]

I expect other teams to be playing not tanking this year in a few cases like IND and MIA.  That alone will make it more of a challenge.  Would we have done as well last year if without other teams tanking.  Nope.   We played hard but other teams did not try last year.  That does not take away how hard our team played or how good they played down the stretch.  They made the playoffs with an army of misfit toys roster.

[PhoSita]

Let me start with this: you can see LarBrd33's whole pessimistic philosophy on the C's played out perfectly here. Pretty much every other team gets the benefit of the doubt, and the C's get pessimism and one line lol

This is a completely fair point.