Summer League Predictions for the Celtics

[clover]

Prediction #1:

RJ Hunter becomes the best player on the Celtics summer league roster.

Prediction #2:

Smart struggles again like last year.

Prediction #2:

Young and Hunter both start and become a dangerous shooting combo in Summer League.

Prediction #3:

Terry Rozier ends up starting over Smart a couple of games.

Prediction #4:

Phil Pressey barely gets any minutes.

Prediction #5:

Jonathan Holmes impresses more than Jordan Mickey.

1. I think it will be Young but hoping Hunter looks really good.
2. I think they'll both look good
3. Rozier may get some starts to see what he can do but Smart will look better than last year and Rozier
4. Pressey will be a non-factor -- auditioning for a spot on another team
5. agreed.  Triboy will be crushed and find some reason to explain why Mickey is the better player

I'm hoping for Mr. Thornton to most exceed expectations and force consideration on the roster.

[slamtheking]

Prediction #1:

RJ Hunter becomes the best player on the Celtics summer league roster.

Prediction #2:

Smart struggles again like last year.

Prediction #2:

Young and Hunter both start and become a dangerous shooting combo in Summer League.

Prediction #3:

Terry Rozier ends up starting over Smart a couple of games.

Prediction #4:

Phil Pressey barely gets any minutes.

Prediction #5:

Jonathan Holmes impresses more than Jordan Mickey.

1. I think it will be Young but hoping Hunter looks really good.
2. I think they'll both look good
3. Rozier may get some starts to see what he can do but Smart will look better than last year and Rozier
4. Pressey will be a non-factor -- auditioning for a spot on another team
5. agreed.  Triboy will be crushed and find some reason to explain why Mickey is the better player

I'm hoping for Mr. Thornton to most exceed expectations and force consideration on the roster.

excellent point.  I think most people are considering him an afterthought.  Hoping he gets the playing time to show what he can do.  Probably still a player to stash in Europe like Iverson but if some guards are traded to balance out the roster, he might stick (sort of like Pressey has).

[Celtics4ever]

I think that Holmes and Mickey will surprise some as our bigs.   I think we have a guy or two that can shoot.   Young and Hunter can shoot and it will be a pleasant change from past summer leagues.  I am looking forward to it, have it set to record already.

[amenhotep04]

Lots of time watching Smart, Rozier, with either Young or Hunter. Lots of fast breaks, and incredible defense. Iverson struggles getting up and down the floor to keep up with the rest of the team. I expect Marcus will play more like he did at OSU, driving and dishing out to either Hunter or Young.

[aingeforthree]

I think that Holmes and Mickey will surprise some as our bigs.   I think we have a guy or two that can shoot.   Young and Hunter can shoot and it will be a pleasant change from past summer leagues.  I am looking forward to it, have it set to record already.

I do as well. Mickey impressed in the combine 5 on 5 scrimmages which reminded me a ton of summer league. He'll rebound, block shots, and get those summer league garbage buckets. I see him impressing early and often.

[tarheelsxxiii]

I posted the following 3 weeks ago. If you go down to the "Advanced" section in the links  provided and look at BPM (Box +/-) and VORP, you'd see that Smart performed very well.  These advanced stats aren't perfect, but they're supposedly good at predicting NBA success.

===

The following is a comparison of the top names for the last three drafts leaving out Anthony Davis who was supposed to be and has proven to be a franchise player. As I posted elsewhere, Smart was the top rookie going into and coming out of 2014's draft on advanced stats like Box +/- and VORP stacks up as superior on such stats to most of them. Advanced stats aren't perfect, but they put a player in better perspective as a two-way player who's not just jacking up shots on a bad team and not playing much D or incapable of doing so.  Only Mirotic topped him in last year’s rookie class, but he was a pro for 6 years in the top league outside the NBA:

http://bkref.com/tiny/yUqg9
http://bkref.com/tiny/4LKnJ
http://bkref.com/tiny/gUDjw

Despite the claim that Smart is  a so-so role player by some here, the stats tell a different story. Who knows how he turns out, but I expect he’ll end up as one of the best out of his draft class based on his first year.

Hey, if we're going to play this game, how about a comparison with the most underrated player on this board?

http://bkref.com/tiny/JrtjR

I made a similar post elsewhere after throwing in Amir, Tobias, and Sully. Interesting stuff.

[vjcsmoke]

I find it hard to believe that people think NONE of our players can or will improve from last year.  These guys are very young, less than 3 years of total NBA experience.  And we're already writing them off?

Don't we learn anything from the past?  Writing off Chauncey Billups too early was a big mistake, same with Joe Johnson.  They both went on to have accomplished all-star careers and they were originally drafted by the C's.

[colincb]

I posted the following 3 weeks ago. If you go down to the "Advanced" section in the links  provided and look at BPM (Box +/-) and VORP, you'd see that Smart performed very well.  These advanced stats aren't perfect, but they're supposedly good at predicting NBA success.

===

The following is a comparison of the top names for the last three drafts leaving out Anthony Davis who was supposed to be and has proven to be a franchise player. As I posted elsewhere, Smart was the top rookie going into and coming out of 2014's draft on advanced stats like Box +/- and VORP stacks up as superior on such stats to most of them. Advanced stats aren't perfect, but they put a player in better perspective as a two-way player who's not just jacking up shots on a bad team and not playing much D or incapable of doing so.  Only Mirotic topped him in last year’s rookie class, but he was a pro for 6 years in the top league outside the NBA:

http://bkref.com/tiny/yUqg9
http://bkref.com/tiny/4LKnJ
http://bkref.com/tiny/gUDjw

Despite the claim that Smart is  a so-so role player by some here, the stats tell a different story. Who knows how he turns out, but I expect he’ll end up as one of the best out of his draft class based on his first year.

Hey, if we're going to play this game, how about a comparison with the most underrated player on this board?

http://bkref.com/tiny/JrtjR

You combined both years of KG. For some reason the BB-reference site won't let me put the single season comparison together, but Olynyk had a Box +/- of 0.5 and a VORP of 0.9 as a rookie compared to Smart’s 1.1 and 1.4, respectively.

I believe KO's underrated by this forum. I don't feel he's as good as his advanced stats however, but I could be wrong.

[ahonui06]

The 5 guard lineup will come up at some point in one of the games:

Smart, Rozier, Thornton, Pressey, Young/Hunter

Ultimate smallball

[knuckleballer]

I take it you are not a fan of Smart. He will dominate the Summer League.  I'm surprised he's playing as I really don't see the purpose.

  Literally nothing he's done with the Celtics indicates this.  Quite the opposite really.

 

I'm not proud of myself for bumping this thread and gloating, but I'm watching the third summer league game and Smart looks like a shorter version of Lebron against Summer League competition.

[LarBrd33]

I take it you are not a fan of Smart. He will dominate the Summer League.  I'm surprised he's playing as I really don't see the purpose.

  Literally nothing he's done with the Celtics indicates this.  Quite the opposite really.

Lol

Smart was a top 30 player in the summer league last year.  Averaged 15, 4 and 4 on 33% shooting.   He wasn't penetrating... just chucking up shots and he can't really shoot.

He'll struggle to "dominate" simply because, #1 - He's a bad offensive player and #2 - We have a bunch of other guards we'll be giving minutes to.    But if he got the minutes/touches, he'd probably be better than he was last year. 

I expect underwhelming stats from all of our summer league players.   They all basically play the same position... it will be hard for anyone to stand out.

So far Smart is surpassing my expectations... which is a good thing.  He shot 30% in game 1, but his performance in game 2 was stellar... he's also been really aggressive and getting all the minutes and touches he needs to showcase his talents.    I was concerned he'd have to share minutes/touches too much with the other players we're trying to take a look at, but sitting him out some of the games is a nice work-around.