Official Minutes Per Game Prediction Thread (2015-2016)

[BDeCosta26]

I disagreea bout this team being a bunch of scrubs.

Also, BDCosta, no desire to take a shot at predicting our minutes?

Well, any team that can win 24/36 games in the NBA isn't a team of scrubs. They're more likely to be over .500 than under, and we basically still managed .500 even with that dumpster fire that was the 1st half of the season. The Knicks last year sans Carmelo were a bunch of scrubs. Same with LA. The only way you can say we we're is by conceding Stevens is a fantastic coach, one of the best in the league even. Judging by some of your previous posts I've seen I don't think your ready to say that.

As far as the minutes thing, it's not really I don't want to, I just don't think it makes sense to. Right now we have 14 guys on our roster that have a legit shot at earning minutes and I can't imagine us starting the season that way. And when you combine that with the fact that Stevens proved last season he wasn't going give guys a strict diet of minutes and that most of the guys on our roster can play multiple positions, it just doesn't seem like a useful debate right now.

Like I say though, if I had to guess, Rozier just screams "Bradley replacement!". A very similar game coming out of the draft, needs to develop his jumper a bit but he gives you a lot of the same things AB does. Plus Rozier is a better prospect that he gets credit for around here. He can play decent minutes this season. But I think Ainge realizes that Smart may need another ball-handler next to him in the starting line-up to be succesful and Turner isn't really a viable long-term option in that regard. So even though I'll probably go ahead and fill out your template soon, I just think it's not really possible to do it in a way that makes sense. Hence the certainty of moves ahead.

[pokeKingCurtis]

We go 13 deep...playing just over 18 minutes each...?

Plus, there's Jonathan Holmes the homeboy. I hope he makes it into the 15...very interesting guy...

Gotta imagine a trade. Even though I'm optimistic about my guys.

This is a pass time of mine, imagining what the rotation and roster would look like in various circumstances. I've put everything from Greg Monroe to Bobby Portis to Lance Stephenson to Roy Hibbert on an Excel with a formula that adds up minutes...But Ainge has really made things tough for me here...

Wait ~

I have a life and a lot of friends...guys? Guys?

[PhoSita]

I disagreea bout this team being a bunch of scrubs.

I prefer the term "journeymen."  I see a lot of guys on this roster who I expect to bounce around the league for 5-10 years in supporting / bench roles of varying importance.

[Evantime34]

Starters:
PG: Marcus Smart  30MPG
SG: Avery Bradley, 30 MPG
SF: Jae Crowder,  25 MPG
PF: Sullinger,  28 MPG
C: Johnson,  28 MPG

Bench:
PG: Isaiah Thomas, 30 MPG
SG: Young , 10 MPG
SF: Jerebko,  15 MPG
PF: Olynyk,  24 MPG
C: Zeller ,  20 MPG

Deep Bench:
PG: Rozier
SG: Hunter

Not Dressing
Mickey
Wallace

Evan Turner is traded.

[PhoSita]

For what it's worth, here's the rotation I'm using with the team in 2K.

I don't really have a hard and fast rotation, I just sub guys in and out based on how tired they get and what I feel is necessary at that point in the game.


Thomas - 32 mpg
Bradley - 28 mpg
Crowder - 32 mpg
Sullinger - 26 mpg
Johnson - 26 mpg
--------
Zeller - 21 mpg
Olynyk - 20 mpg
Smart - 20 mpg
Jerebko - 17 mpg
Rozier - 17 mpg
----
Everybody else: 0 or spot minutes

I see a problem ....

What ya gonna do with Evan Turnover ?   

I'm expecting (perhaps 'hoping fervently' is more accurate) that he is gone before the start of the season.

I agree with BDeCosta that Bradley could likely be gone, too.

Exchanging a couple of our older (read: mid-twenties, haha) shooting guards for a starting caliber wing just makes too much sense, if such a trade is available.

[KG Living Legend]

 Does anyone play more PF than Sully just cause he's not in shape?  Who will play more minutes this year, the future in Crowder or the better ball handling Turner. What rookie gets minutes?
 So many questions with this roster.
 

[D.o.s.]

I disagreea bout this team being a bunch of scrubs.

Also, BDCosta, no desire to take a shot at predicting our minutes?

Well, any team that can win 24/36 games in the NBA isn't a team of scrubs. They're more likely to be over .500 than under, and we basically still managed .500 even with that dumpster fire that was the 1st half of the season. The Knicks last year sans Carmelo were a bunch of scrubs. Same with LA. The only way you can say we we're is by conceding Stevens is a fantastic coach, one of the best in the league even. Judging by some of your previous posts I've seen I don't think your ready to say that.

As far as the minutes thing, it's not really I don't want to, I just don't think it makes sense to. Right now we have 14 guys on our roster that have a legit shot at earning minutes and I can't imagine us starting the season that way. And when you combine that with the fact that Stevens proved last season he wasn't going give guys a strict diet of minutes and that most of the guys on our roster can play multiple positions, it just doesn't seem like a useful debate right now.

Like I say though, if I had to guess, Rozier just screams "Bradley replacement!". A very similar game coming out of the draft, needs to develop his jumper a bit but he gives you a lot of the same things AB does. Plus Rozier is a better prospect that he gets credit for around here. He can play decent minutes this season. But I think Ainge realizes that Smart may need another ball-handler next to him in the starting line-up to be succesful and Turner isn't really a viable long-term option in that regard. So even though I'll probably go ahead and fill out your template soon, I just think it's not really possible to do it in a way that makes sense. Hence the certainty of moves ahead.

If we have 14 players that could fight for minutes I would argue that 14 of them are not very good.

[PhoSita]

Put it this way -- our team is comprised entirely of the sort of player that only NBA junkies and locals actually know anything about, or will remember at all in 10 years.

[TheFlex]

Marcus Smart (12 mpg)/Isaiah Thomas (28 mpg)/Terry Rozier (8 mpg)

Avery Bradley (25 mpg)/[Marcus Smart] (18 mpg)/RJ Hunter (2 mpg)/[Terry Rozier] (3 mpg)

Jae Crowder (25 mpg)/James Young (15 mpg)/RJ Hunter (8 mpg)

Sullinger (25 mpg)/Olynyk (12 mpg)/Jerebko (11 mpg)

Amir (24 mpg)/Zeller (16 mpg)/[Olynyk] (8 mpg)

There are trades that I believe must occur before the start of the season. There's simply not enough minutes for everyone, and that's a bad problem to have for a team fighting for a playoff spot but not bad enough to tank. Boston either needs to consolidate its assets into qualitatively better and quantitatively lesser players, or sell off some off some of its older talent. I left out Evan Turner because I'm guessing he'll definitely be gone by the beginning of the year. Even still, I believe the guard rotation is far too clogged to keep both of IT and AB, and the bigs rotation is much too crowded to retain both Sullinger and Olynyk.

Here's my dream scenario. Toronto's Dwane Casey continues to pound the ball through his guards and freeze his team's offense by strangling the potential out of a Kyle Lowry or DeMar DeRozan iso. The lack of ball handling shatters new signee Carroll's offensive value. Ujiri explores the market for Lowry, DeRozan and Valanciunas more ambitiously than ever.   He finds decent offers for Lowry and Valanciunas but is blown away by a godfather offer made by Danny Ainge in late December, which compensates the loss of DeRozan's potential with good picks while compensating the loss of his immediate abilities with good players.

BOS sends: Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, 2016 BOS 1, 2018 BKN 1

TOR sends: DeRozan

Around the time this trade is made both Dallas and Brooklyn are outside the top 8 of their respective conferences. For Dallas, Dirk regressed further, Wes Matthews looks like a shell of himself post-Achilles injury and DJ is not the player he was expected to be in an expanded role. As for Brooklyn, Deron Williams and Joe Johnson have regressed as well, pushing the Nets to the outside looking in at a more competitive Eastern Conference.

Meanwhile, in Sacramento, Cousins becomes more frustrated. It turns out that WCS does have more significant injury issues than the team let on during the summer (right now); Rondo forms a good relationship with Cousins but can't regain his old self on the court, creating a toxic relationship between Rondo and Karl. Rondo turns Cousins against Karl thinking it will get Karl fired, but instead Cousins demands out altogether.

At the deadline, Sacramento jumps at the opportunity to cash out on Cousins for a slimmer Sully who is accelerating towards his full potential, two likely lotto picks in DAL and BKN 1sts, a young, cost-controlled roration big in Zeller, and their choice between Terry Rozier and RJ Hunter. We also send Gerald Wallace to take back bad deals.

BOS sends: Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller, Terry Rozier, Gerald Wallace, 2016 DAL 1st (top 7 prot.), 2016 BKN 1st

SAC sends: DeMarcus Cousins, Marco Bellinelli

Boston, hanging tightly to the 8th spot in the East at the deadline, races towards the playoffs with this group:

Marcus Smart (20 mpg)/IT (28 mpg)

DeMar DeRozan (32 mpg)/Smart (10 mpg)/RJ Hunter (6 mpg)

Jae Crowder (18 mpg)/James Young (23 mpg)/RJ Hunter (7 mpg)

Amir Johnson (23 mpg)/Jerebko (18 mpg)/[Crowder] (7 mpg)

DeMarcus Cousins (36 mpg)/[Amir Johnson] (12 mpg)

And once again I just spent 20 minutes detailing a Celtics fantasy that will likely never result in reality.

[PhoSita]

And once again I just spent 20 minutes detailing a Celtics fantasy that will likely never result in reality.

I get it, man.  I totally get it.

By the way, Derozan has an ETO after this year so giving up Bradley, KO, and two 1sts to get him for half a season is kind of ... a lot.


The story I'm telling myself:


In early January, with Okafor well on his way to Rookie of the Year despite significant time at power forward and Embiid playing a very productive 20 minutes a night, the Sixers look to cash in Nerlens Noel for assets and young pieces that fit better with their two young star centers.

Boston sends Kelly Olynyk (more aggressive and consistent than ever), James Young (enjoying a productive second year, lights out from deep), and Jonas Jerebko plus two 1sts for Nerlens Noel, Hollis Thompson and Jason Thompson.

At the deadline, with Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja looking like the forward combo of the future for the Magic, Orlando looks to auction off Tobias Harris to the highest bidder, while also hoping to unload Channing Frye's contract.

Celts send Avery Bradley, Gerald Wallace, Amir Johnson, and two 1sts to Orlando for Harris, Frye, and Harkless.


In summer 2016, the Celts sign free agent Chandler Parsons to a 4 year deal, giving them the following team:

Rozier / Thomas
Smart / Thompson / Hunter
Parsons / Crowder / Harkless
Harris / Sullinger / Thompson
Noel / Zeller / Frye / Mickey

[LarBrd33]

Marcus Smart (12 mpg)/Isaiah Thomas (28 mpg)/Terry Rozier (8 mpg)

Avery Bradley (25 mpg)/[Marcus Smart] (18 mpg)/RJ Hunter (2 mpg)/[Terry Rozier] (3 mpg)

Jae Crowder (25 mpg)/James Young (15 mpg)/RJ Hunter (8 mpg)

Sullinger (25 mpg)/Olynyk (12 mpg)/Jerebko (11 mpg)

Amir (24 mpg)/Zeller (16 mpg)/[Olynyk] (8 mpg)

There are trades that I believe must occur before the start of the season. There's simply not enough minutes for everyone, and that's a bad problem to have for a team fighting for a playoff spot but not bad enough to tank. Boston either needs to consolidate its assets into qualitatively better and quantitatively lesser players, or sell off some off some of its older talent. I left out Evan Turner because I'm guessing he'll definitely be gone by the beginning of the year. Even still, I believe the guard rotation is far too clogged to keep both of IT and AB, and the bigs rotation is much too crowded to retain both Sullinger and Olynyk.

Here's my dream scenario. Toronto's Dwane Casey continues to pound the ball through his guards and freeze his team's offense by strangling the potential out of a Kyle Lowry or DeMar DeRozan iso. The lack of ball handling shatters new signee Carroll's offensive value. Ujiri explores the market for Lowry, DeRozan and Valanciunas more ambitiously than ever.   He finds decent offers for Lowry and Valanciunas but is blown away by a godfather offer made by Danny Ainge in late December, which compensates the loss of DeRozan's potential with good picks while compensating the loss of his immediate abilities with good players.

BOS sends: Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, 2016 BOS 1, 2018 BKN 1

TOR sends: DeRozan

Around the time this trade is made both Dallas and Brooklyn are outside the top 8 of their respective conferences. For Dallas, Dirk regressed further, Wes Matthews looks like a shell of himself post-Achilles injury and DJ is not the player he was expected to be in an expanded role. As for Brooklyn, Deron Williams and Joe Johnson have regressed as well, pushing the Nets to the outside looking in at a more competitive Eastern Conference.

Meanwhile, in Sacramento, Cousins becomes more frustrated. It turns out that WCS does have more significant injury issues than the team let on during the summer (right now); Rondo forms a good relationship with Cousins but can't regain his old self on the court, creating a toxic relationship between Rondo and Karl. Rondo turns Cousins against Karl thinking it will get Karl fired, but instead Cousins demands out altogether.

At the deadline, Sacramento jumps at the opportunity to cash out on Cousins for a slimmer Sully who is accelerating towards his full potential, two likely lotto picks in DAL and BKN 1sts, a young, cost-controlled roration big in Zeller, and their choice between Terry Rozier and RJ Hunter. We also send Gerald Wallace to take back bad deals.

BOS sends: Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller, Terry Rozier, Gerald Wallace, 2016 DAL 1st (top 7 prot.), 2016 BKN 1st

SAC sends: DeMarcus Cousins, Marco Bellinelli

Boston, hanging tightly to the 8th spot in the East at the deadline, races towards the playoffs with this group:

Marcus Smart (20 mpg)/IT (28 mpg)

DeMar DeRozan (32 mpg)/Smart (10 mpg)/RJ Hunter (6 mpg)

Jae Crowder (18 mpg)/James Young (23 mpg)/RJ Hunter (7 mpg)

Amir Johnson (23 mpg)/Jerebko (18 mpg)/[Crowder] (7 mpg)

DeMarcus Cousins (36 mpg)/[Amir Johnson] (12 mpg)

And once again I just spent 20 minutes detailing a Celtics fantasy that will likely never result in reality.

why would turner be gone by the start of the year. That seems arbitrary.  He's was arguably our best player during the hot stretch.  Plug him in for 30 mins at least.  I expect the rookies to spend a lot of time in the d league. We don't have minutes for them.

[krumeto]

I promised myself I will let the dust settle before thinking rotation-wise, but it is a slow, slow Sunday morning here. I will give it a try assuming absolutely no changes to the roster

Starters:
PG: Smart,  15 MPG
SG: AB,  26 MPG
SF: Turner,  21 MPG
PF: Sully,  20 MPG
C: Zeller, 21 MPG

Bench:
PG: IT,  28 MPG; Rozier 5 MPG
SG: Smart, 6 MPG; RJ Hunter 8 MPG; Rozier 3 MPG; Young 5 MPG
SF: Crowder,  20 MPG; Young 7 MPG
PF: KO, 15 MPG; Jerebko, 10 MPG, Amir 3 MPG
C: Amir,  17 MPG; Sully 5 MPG; KO 5 MPG

Mickey to the D-league, Wallace signed on a secret contract to the coaching staff incl. a beatboxing clause.

To me, this is a nightmare for Brad. So much levelness! We have a 13 man rotation where our best player is not much better than number 13. If Wallace was still healthy he might have been our best SF!

I hope Ainge shortens the rotation via trade, if only to make Brad's life easier.

Boston sends Player A, Player B and C for other teams overpaid player A.

I have headaches trying to find a good match, but IMO it has to be done one way or another.

[PhoSita]

why would turner be gone by the start of the year. That seems arbitrary.  He's was arguably our best player during the hot stretch.  Plug him in for 30 mins at least.  I expect the rookies to spend a lot of time in the d league. We don't have minutes for them.

Because Turner is not very good.  He has reached his ceiling as an inefficient ball handling wing with a nonexistent outside shot and poor defense. 

He was needed last year as a ballhandler with Smart starting.  The team just used a 1st rounder on another ball handling combo guard who hopefully has some more upside.  Turner should be gone.

How do you make minutes for rookies who you need to develop? Dump vets who have maxed out as not very good role players.

[D.o.s.]

Agreed. Turner has never earned major minutes on a good team and I don't expect that to change.

[TheFlex]

And once again I just spent 20 minutes detailing a Celtics fantasy that will likely never result in reality.

I get it, man.  I totally get it.

By the way, Derozan has an ETO after this year so giving up Bradley, KO, and two 1sts to get him for half a season is kind of ... a lot.


The story I'm telling myself:


In early January, with Okafor well on his way to Rookie of the Year despite significant time at power forward and Embiid playing a very productive 20 minutes a night, the Sixers look to cash in Nerlens Noel for assets and young pieces that fit better with their two young star centers.

Boston sends Kelly Olynyk (more aggressive and consistent than ever), James Young (enjoying a productive second year, lights out from deep), and Jonas Jerebko plus two 1sts for Nerlens Noel, Hollis Thompson and Jason Thompson.

At the deadline, with Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja looking like the forward combo of the future for the Magic, Orlando looks to auction off Tobias Harris to the highest bidder, while also hoping to unload Channing Frye's contract.

Celts send Avery Bradley, Gerald Wallace, Amir Johnson, and two 1sts to Orlando for Harris, Frye, and Harkless.


In summer 2016, the Celts sign free agent Chandler Parsons to a 4 year deal, giving them the following team:

Rozier / Thomas
Smart / Thompson / Hunter
Parsons / Crowder / Harkless
Harris / Sullinger / Thompson
Noel / Zeller / Frye / Mickey

Well done! I was thoroughly entertained. Let's hope you're right, at least with respect to acquiring Noel without having to give up Smart.

Good point re: DeRozan. I suspect Ujiri would try to trade him to a team he'd look to re-sign with, though, so his value wouldn't be reduced by impending free agency. If he verbally agreed to re-sign with the Celts, Ainge would give up full value, I think.