2016 Draft Question(s)

[jmen788]

I have heard some folks on here say that the 2016 draft (next year's draft) is supposed to be weak. Where is this coming from? It looks like the top 8-10 are decent, especially top 5 with guys like Simmons and Ingram. I think Simmons or Ingram with our team would be wonderful... I love Simmons size/skills etc. Any draft experts know anything on this topic?

[HomerSapien]

From what I've heard there are two things. First, which seems almost universally accepted is that the 2016 class isn't as deep as the previous two. Second, in comparison to 2014 and 2015 the top talent isn't view as favorably. Experts I've read thing the Wiggins, Parker, Embiid and Towns, Russell, Okafor groups have more star potential than Simmons, Labissierre, and Brown crop. An observation I've made about the 2016 class is that the kids do look to be a little older age-wise than previous classes too.

I for one though, am not ready to write the 2016 crop off yet. I think Simmons might be a bit of a victim of over exposure. He's been a top NBA prospect for 3 years now and I think he's being picked apart like college guys who return for their senior year. Also, Brandon Ingram seems to be flying up the board. He is growing like a weed and is young for his class. Finally, I think Jamal Murray will become a top 10 pick by draft time next year. He's talented and underrated in my book.

That said, 2017 looks to be stacked. Harry Giles, Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum look like future all NBA guys.

[Emmette Bryant]

Didn't a bunch of Euros pull out of this year's draft?  Maybe they'll add some depth to the 2016 draft.

[Denis998]

2016 is going to be more top heavy, talent is going to fall off rather quickly from what I heard. 2017 is going to be a great draft, Thon Maker is amazing.

[A Future of Stevens]

2016 is going to be extremely top heavy. With the exception of Simmons and maybe Skal, the class doesn't look to have many franchise type players. Simmons has also been under the microscope forever, and the fact that the only knock on the kids game after all that scrutiny is his long distance shooting, should tell you how special he is.

Also since Thon pulled out of the 2016, the class got alot weaker.

[mef730]

I'm not worried, it's way too early to tell.

Here's the recruiting index from last year for this year's draft. Note that this is only the recruiting index, not a preliminary draft, so it doesn't even account for existing players who would end up in the draft.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2014/order/true

Cliff Alexander was at #3. Justin Johnson #8. Theo Pinson #10.

Of the top 10 prospects listed, only four were actually drafted in the top 10.

Meanwhile,

Karl Towns was #9
D'Angelo Russell was #13
Justise Winslow was #15

All this and $4.00 will get you a cup of coffee, but I don't think it's time to worry too much about next year's draft.*

Mike

*I acknowledge that we like to worry, pontificate and predict around here. That's always fun. Just sometimes dangerous.

[Robb]

Dragan Bender looks super talented, Jakob Poeltl withdrew this year, which stinks because he would have pushed the talent level of the big men down a few picks and we might have been able to have picked up either he or Turner in the draft.

[Robb]

2016 is going to be extremely top heavy. With the exception of Simmons and maybe Skal, the class doesn't look to have many franchise type players. Simmons has also been under the microscope forever, and the fact that the only knock on the kids game after all that scrutiny is his long distance shooting, should tell you how special he is.

Also since Thon pulled out of the 2016, the class got alot weaker.

Not necessarily "long distance" though. I read he has issues starting at like...15 feet from the hoop.

[jmen788]

2016 is going to be more top heavy, talent is going to fall off rather quickly from what I heard. 2017 is going to be a great draft, Thon Maker is amazing.

So basically.. if we don't have a top 5 pick to get an Ingram or Simmons, we are pretty much screwed?

[HomerSapien]

2016 is going to be more top heavy, talent is going to fall off rather quickly from what I heard. 2017 is going to be a great draft, Thon Maker is amazing.

So basically.. if we don't have a top 5 pick to get an Ingram or Simmons, we are pretty much screwed?

I think it's more like top 10 but a lot can change in 11 months too. Seems like those picks in the 20s will be pretty crappy though.

[jmen788]

Darn. I doubt we will have a top 10 pick (probably a few in the 15-20 range) so this is really disappointing 

[HomerSapien]

Between our pick and the Nets pick I think at least one will be top 10. After free agency Dallas is looking less likely though.

[jmen788]

Maybe... both the Nets and Cs could make the playoffs. But from the little I know, even if we did get say pick 8, it seems like we'd need a top 3 pick to get a game changer like Simmons or Ingram...

[Eddie20]

Good info since we might have as many as 3 lottery picks next year.

ESPN- Paul Biancardi, Basketball Recruiting


The 2015 NBA draft is in the books, and as we analyze each team's draft class, it is also time to look to next year's draft -- in particular the incoming college freshmen whom we'll be talking about this time next year. Below is a list of five guys whose performances, predicted productivity level in college and NBA potential make them one-and-done material and likely high-level picks.

What makes this class special is the amount of size in the frontcourt, and if the five players below compete and help their teams win, they should hear their names called very early in the 2016 NBA draft:

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1. Ben Simmons 6-10/230 | PF | LSU Tigers

Simmons has all the physical tools, athletic ability and skill you could want from a prospect. His versatility will help him thrive in the NBA -- he is a major threat in the conversion game as a finisher or a facilitator, but what makes him special is his passing and playmaking ability. He moves the ball to get others involved and can make the assist. While not a point guard, Simmons owns an innate ability to read the floor and make a spot-on pass at a moment's notice.

When it comes to scoring, Simmons is a true mismatch because he takes big men away from the basket, beats them off the bounce and also has range to 20 feet. When similar-sized defenders attempt to cover him, he can operate from the mid and low post with mobility, bounce and touch. Meanwhile, he has become a much more consistent rebounder and shot-blocker as his body has developed. The No. 1 player in the Class of 2015, Simmons would have been a top-five pick if he had been in Thursday's draft.

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2. Skal Labissiere 7-0/215  | C | Kentucky Wildcats

Labissiere's is a name many don't know yet, but will once the college basketball season begins and he steps on the floor in Kentucky. What makes this emerging post a desirable prospect is that he is a 7-footer who can shoot the ball with range and accuracy. Labissiere has great touch to step out behind the arc and make 3s, or go inside and score with a jump hook.

On the other end, he blocks shots with significant wingspan and reach, and is a solid rebounder in his area -- though right now he has more length than strength. Labissiere needs to get stronger, especially in his lower body, to be able to maintain leverage in the post. In front of NBA general managers and scouts at the Nike Hoop Summit, he demonstrated skill, 3-point shooting and defensive mobility. Labissiere's best basketball is clearly ahead of him, and he has a chance to be the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft if he changes his body and proves he can produce at a high level.

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3. Brandon Ingram 6-9/195 | SF | Duke Blue Devils

Ingram has improved each year, to the point where he skyrocketed up our board and finished as the third-best prospect in the 2015 class. He oozes with upside because he is a pogo stick of an athlete with versatility. Ingram drives for baskets and covers ground with one dribble better than anyone else in the college game. He combines that part of his game with fluid 3-point shooting and an ability to get buckets in the paint. Ingram can play and produce in a high-possession game or a grind-it-out affair, as he can score and shoot over defenders.

Blessed with an extremely long frame, Ingram has the physical tools to be a good defender but that is an area of needed growth -- up to this point he has not been asked to be a committed defender. He's still painfully thin, so adding muscle will be vital to his overall development, but he's an elite prospect with great measurables (7-3 wingspan, 9-1½ standing reach), and is turning into an elite player. The NBA loves Ingram now, and should love him even more after his first year at Duke.

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4. Jaylen Brown 6-7/220 | SF | Cal Golden Bears

Brown is the most powerful athlete among all college freshmen, and among the most powerful in all of college basketball. He's a monster on the open floor -- no one can finalize a play like Brown. He creates fouls on defenders; when he doesn't, you can find him somewhere inside the arc scoring -- he's an explosive straight-line driver with strong finishes. Brown's jumper is streaky from deep, yet more dependable from midrange.

Brown has plenty of physical ability to suggest he can become a strong defender, as he is all fast-twitch fibers and doesn't mind moving his feet. If his ball skills make progress and he continues to dominate inside the paint and on the glass, Brown will be a lottery pick in 2016.

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5. Henry Ellenson 6-10/230 | PF | Marquette Golden Eagles

Ellenson is one of the nation's best incoming college freshmen whom you don't hear enough about. Watching him over the years, I've marveled at the impressive combination of his scoring versatility, power forward size and mobility. Ellenson is another big man with skill who can score both inside and outside with effectiveness.

He needs to show he will be a committed defender and can get himself in top physical condition. When that happens, Marquette will have a difference-maker who should be highly productive. NBA scouts need to be in Milwaukee this season.

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Five more names to keep an eye on

Diamond Stone 6-10/250 | C | Maryland Terrapins
 Malik Newman 6-4/185 | SG | Mississippi State Bulldogs
 Ivan Rabb 6-10/215 | PF | Cal Golden Bears
 Stephen Zimmerman 7-0/230 | C | UNLV Rebels
 Dwayne Bacon 6-6/210 | SG | Florida State Seminoles

[colincb]

Both Givony and Ford have said the 2016 class is weaker and the international crop is very weak.  I'd give some weight to that, but as has been pointed out, it's tough to forecast the draft, especially in the era of one-and-done where someone who didn't look like much going into the college season ends up maturing at 19 or 20.