2016 Draft Question(s)

[Eddie20]

Both Givony and Ford have said the 2016 class is weaker and the international crop is very weak.  I'd give some weight to that, but as has been pointed out, it's tough to forecast the draft, especially in the era of one-and-done where someone who didn't look like much going into the college season ends up maturing at 19 or 20.

I think this draft will be stronger than they suggest because guys that pulled out of the 15 draft (Poetl, Sabonis, Lavert, Pope, Dunn, etc.) will likely be in this one. Plus, incoming freshman often develop considerably in their freshman season (see Towns, Russell, etc.). Not to mention all the foreign guys, some that come literally out of nowhere.

[Boris Badenov]

Both Givony and Ford have said the 2016 class is weaker and the international crop is very weak.  I'd give some weight to that, but as has been pointed out, it's tough to forecast the draft, especially in the era of one-and-done where someone who didn't look like much going into the college season ends up maturing at 19 or 20.

That's it right there. You're looking at guys during a peak year for maturation, or lack of it.

Going back one more year, Julius Randle was initially viewed as a possible #1 pick along with the Wiggins/Parker duo. Embiid was not in the mix at all. Etc.

[Boris Badenov]

Both Givony and Ford have said the 2016 class is weaker and the international crop is very weak.  I'd give some weight to that, but as has been pointed out, it's tough to forecast the draft, especially in the era of one-and-done where someone who didn't look like much going into the college season ends up maturing at 19 or 20.

I think this draft will be stronger than they suggest because guys that pulled out of the 15 draft (Poetl, Sabonis, Lavert, Pope, Dunn, etc.) will likely be in this one. Plus, incoming freshman often develop considerably in their freshman season (see Towns, Russell, etc.). Not to mention all the foreign guys, some that come literally out of nowhere.

You can learn a little bit about projected draft strength by looking at these guys specifically.

Lavert for example was projected at 25 in the 2015 DE mock, and the have him at #20 in 2016.

Poeltl was at #11 and is now at #9.

Dunn was at #13 and is now at #7.

Etc.

[Eddie20]

Both Givony and Ford have said the 2016 class is weaker and the international crop is very weak.  I'd give some weight to that, but as has been pointed out, it's tough to forecast the draft, especially in the era of one-and-done where someone who didn't look like much going into the college season ends up maturing at 19 or 20.

I think this draft will be stronger than they suggest because guys that pulled out of the 15 draft (Poetl, Sabonis, Lavert, Pope, Dunn, etc.) will likely be in this one. Plus, incoming freshman often develop considerably in their freshman season (see Towns, Russell, etc.). Not to mention all the foreign guys, some that come literally out of nowhere.

You can learn a little bit about projected draft strength by looking at these guys specifically.

Lavert for example was projected at 25 in the 2015 DE mock, and the have him at #20 in 2016.

Poeltl was at #11 and is now at #9.

Dunn was at #13 and is now at #7.

Etc.

However, that doesn't take into account a players growth. Porzingis and Cauley-Stein were projected late teens/early 20's last season and they went #5 and #6 this season. This year's draft wasn't worse than last year's, only the players value has changed.

[Evantime34]

Both Givony and Ford have said the 2016 class is weaker and the international crop is very weak.  I'd give some weight to that, but as has been pointed out, it's tough to forecast the draft, especially in the era of one-and-done where someone who didn't look like much going into the college season ends up maturing at 19 or 20.

I think this draft will be stronger than they suggest because guys that pulled out of the 15 draft (Poetl, Sabonis, Lavert, Pope, Dunn, etc.) will likely be in this one. Plus, incoming freshman often develop considerably in their freshman season (see Towns, Russell, etc.). Not to mention all the foreign guys, some that come literally out of nowhere.

You can learn a little bit about projected draft strength by looking at these guys specifically.

Lavert for example was projected at 25 in the 2015 DE mock, and the have him at #20 in 2016.

Poeltl was at #11 and is now at #9.

Dunn was at #13 and is now at #7.

Etc.

However, that doesn't take into account a players growth. Porzingis and Cauley-Stein were projected late teens/early 20's last season and they went #5 and #6 this season. This year's draft wasn't worse than last year's, only the players value has changed.

D'Angleo Russell wasn't even a projected lottery pick at this time last year.

[Boris Badenov]

Both Givony and Ford have said the 2016 class is weaker and the international crop is very weak.  I'd give some weight to that, but as has been pointed out, it's tough to forecast the draft, especially in the era of one-and-done where someone who didn't look like much going into the college season ends up maturing at 19 or 20.

I think this draft will be stronger than they suggest because guys that pulled out of the 15 draft (Poetl, Sabonis, Lavert, Pope, Dunn, etc.) will likely be in this one. Plus, incoming freshman often develop considerably in their freshman season (see Towns, Russell, etc.). Not to mention all the foreign guys, some that come literally out of nowhere.

You can learn a little bit about projected draft strength by looking at these guys specifically.

Lavert for example was projected at 25 in the 2015 DE mock, and the have him at #20 in 2016.

Poeltl was at #11 and is now at #9.

Dunn was at #13 and is now at #7.

Etc.

However, that doesn't take into account a players growth. Porzingis and Cauley-Stein were projected late teens/early 20's last season and they went #5 and #6 this season. This year's draft wasn't worse than last year's, only the players value has changed.

Sure, there are lots of things that would also move the numbers. I wasn't saying they offer a definitive picture - just that they add perspective.

[mef730]

Good info since we might have as many as 3 lottery picks next year.

ESPN- Paul Biancardi, Basketball Recruiting


The 2015 NBA draft is in the books, and as we analyze each team's draft class, it is also time to look to next year's draft -- in particular the incoming college freshmen whom we'll be talking about this time next year. Below is a list of five guys whose performances, predicted productivity level in college and NBA potential make them one-and-done material and likely high-level picks.

What makes this class special is the amount of size in the frontcourt, and if the five players below compete and help their teams win, they should hear their names called very early in the 2016 NBA draft:

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1. Ben Simmons 6-10/230 | PF | LSU Tigers

Simmons has all the physical tools, athletic ability and skill you could want from a prospect. His versatility will help him thrive in the NBA -- he is a major threat in the conversion game as a finisher or a facilitator, but what makes him special is his passing and playmaking ability. He moves the ball to get others involved and can make the assist. While not a point guard, Simmons owns an innate ability to read the floor and make a spot-on pass at a moment's notice.

When it comes to scoring, Simmons is a true mismatch because he takes big men away from the basket, beats them off the bounce and also has range to 20 feet. When similar-sized defenders attempt to cover him, he can operate from the mid and low post with mobility, bounce and touch. Meanwhile, he has become a much more consistent rebounder and shot-blocker as his body has developed. The No. 1 player in the Class of 2015, Simmons would have been a top-five pick if he had been in Thursday's draft.

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2. Skal Labissiere 7-0/215  | C | Kentucky Wildcats

Labissiere's is a name many don't know yet, but will once the college basketball season begins and he steps on the floor in Kentucky. What makes this emerging post a desirable prospect is that he is a 7-footer who can shoot the ball with range and accuracy. Labissiere has great touch to step out behind the arc and make 3s, or go inside and score with a jump hook.

On the other end, he blocks shots with significant wingspan and reach, and is a solid rebounder in his area -- though right now he has more length than strength. Labissiere needs to get stronger, especially in his lower body, to be able to maintain leverage in the post. In front of NBA general managers and scouts at the Nike Hoop Summit, he demonstrated skill, 3-point shooting and defensive mobility. Labissiere's best basketball is clearly ahead of him, and he has a chance to be the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft if he changes his body and proves he can produce at a high level.

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3. Brandon Ingram 6-9/195 | SF | Duke Blue Devils

Ingram has improved each year, to the point where he skyrocketed up our board and finished as the third-best prospect in the 2015 class. He oozes with upside because he is a pogo stick of an athlete with versatility. Ingram drives for baskets and covers ground with one dribble better than anyone else in the college game. He combines that part of his game with fluid 3-point shooting and an ability to get buckets in the paint. Ingram can play and produce in a high-possession game or a grind-it-out affair, as he can score and shoot over defenders.

Blessed with an extremely long frame, Ingram has the physical tools to be a good defender but that is an area of needed growth -- up to this point he has not been asked to be a committed defender. He's still painfully thin, so adding muscle will be vital to his overall development, but he's an elite prospect with great measurables (7-3 wingspan, 9-1˝ standing reach), and is turning into an elite player. The NBA loves Ingram now, and should love him even more after his first year at Duke.

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4. Jaylen Brown 6-7/220 | SF | Cal Golden Bears

Brown is the most powerful athlete among all college freshmen, and among the most powerful in all of college basketball. He's a monster on the open floor -- no one can finalize a play like Brown. He creates fouls on defenders; when he doesn't, you can find him somewhere inside the arc scoring -- he's an explosive straight-line driver with strong finishes. Brown's jumper is streaky from deep, yet more dependable from midrange.

Brown has plenty of physical ability to suggest he can become a strong defender, as he is all fast-twitch fibers and doesn't mind moving his feet. If his ball skills make progress and he continues to dominate inside the paint and on the glass, Brown will be a lottery pick in 2016.

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5. Henry Ellenson 6-10/230 | PF | Marquette Golden Eagles

Ellenson is one of the nation's best incoming college freshmen whom you don't hear enough about. Watching him over the years, I've marveled at the impressive combination of his scoring versatility, power forward size and mobility. Ellenson is another big man with skill who can score both inside and outside with effectiveness.

He needs to show he will be a committed defender and can get himself in top physical condition. When that happens, Marquette will have a difference-maker who should be highly productive. NBA scouts need to be in Milwaukee this season.

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Five more names to keep an eye on

Diamond Stone 6-10/250 | C | Maryland Terrapins
 Malik Newman 6-4/185 | SG | Mississippi State Bulldogs
 Ivan Rabb 6-10/215 | PF | Cal Golden Bears
 Stephen Zimmerman 7-0/230 | C | UNLV Rebels
 Dwayne Bacon 6-6/210 | SG | Florida State Seminoles

Thanks for the info, TP. In the unlikely world where the Top 5 now remain Top 5 through the year, it's interested to note that there is not a guard among them. Assuming that one of our picks (I'm looking at you, Brooklyn) breaks into the Top 5, at least we'll be getting a need filled.

What will DA do if he gets a Top 5 pick and there are no undersized point guards as BPA? 

Mike

[max215]

2016 is going to be more top heavy, talent is going to fall off rather quickly from what I heard. 2017 is going to be a great draft, Thon Maker is amazing.

So basically.. if we don't have a top 5 pick to get an Ingram or Simmons, we are pretty much screwed?

That's where the Nets come into play 

[sawick48]

THON. MAKER.

been saying it for a year now and i'll beat this drum until he's in the nba, but he's the guy any team should be positioning themselves for. 

handles like a guard, shoots and dunks like a wing, defends and posts like a big.

generational talent. I realize it's ridiculous to make moves with an eye on a guy 2 years or so into the future but if ever there were a prospect for which to do it (and a perfect storm of having a hopefully woeful/disintegrating Nets team along with our own assets that we can trade and a weak 2016 class to punt.....) it's this.

[alewilliam789]

I think for the Celtics it's an interesting draft because it's so deep at a position of need of SF and contains multiple SFs that could become 2 way starters for our squad.
This is my ranking of all the SF that could potentially be in next year's draft with starter potential:
Brandon Ingram/Duke
Ben Simmons/LSU
Jaylen Brown/Kentucky
Justin Jackson/North Carolina
Devin Robinson/Florida
Malik Pope/San Diego State
Troy Williams/Indiana

[celticmania]

I like Skal Labisierre but his 7'1 wingspan worries me. Ben Simmons is good but I'm not a huge fan.

My favorite prospects as of right now (10 months before the draft) are:
•Brandon Ingram - lacks explosiveness but is a solid athlete with unbelievable measurements for a wing. Very good scorer and shooter. Going to be good defensively. Very crafty scorer. Could become a blend of Paul Pierce ( for craftiness and jump shot) and Tashaun Prince (defense and long wiry frame)

•Ray Smith - not being talked about at all but keep an eye on this kid. Mark my words: he will be a lottery pick. Would have been a top 10 recruit if he didn't miss his entire senior year. He's a 6'8 athlete with good length and bounce. Outstanding coordination and body control. Reminds me of Paul George

•Jamal Murray - a very good basketball player. Good size at 6'5 with solid not great athleticism. Very mature and poised. Is a big time leader and shot maker. Can run a team can score he can hit the 3. Very well rounded guard.

•Jaylen Brown -  quick powerful wing. Good size 6'7 near 7 foot wingspan. A true competitor who locks down defensively and is excellent at getting to the basket. Has been compared to Stanley Johnson but is far more skilled with the ball and has more bounce. Very good finisher at the rim and is not a bad shooter either

•Dragan Bender - super fluid, super skilled, high iq versitile forward. Very young and has potential to be great. Can operate facing up and can attack from the perimeter which is impressive for a 7'0 center. Can play each front court position adequately which is a rare ability

•Malik Pope - very long and athletic wing.. Tremendous size at around 6'10.. Very good 3 point shooter and can dribble very well at 6'10. Lacking in the iq and confidence departments. Another year should fix those problems

•Furkan Korkmas - similar to Mario Hezonja.. Another athletic European wing who can shoot the ball. Better ball handler than Hezonja and is crazy offensively. Pretty young. Has big upside

•Diamond Stone - if he is truly 7'0, pencil him in as a top 5 pick without a doubt.. Nice standing reach solid rim protector. Elite rebounder..Lacks great athleticism but definitely better than he looks.. Explodes quickly off the ground for a man his size and runs the floor hard. Has a great skill level but is also going to score alot of points of pure strength and physicality.. Great hands and a soft touch around the hoop .. Reminds me of a bigger Z Bo


•Jakob Poetlt - it's hard to find solid bigs now a days.. Poetl is very solid and brings alot to the table.. You know what you're going to get out of him.. Great defense.. Good out of the pick and roll and has good hands. More than solid on the boards.. Good size and mobility.. Potential as an anchor inside and looks like he can be a pretty good starting center... Think Timothy Mozgov

As of right now, it looks like a very weak draft but alot can change. Should be better than 2013 draft

If I could have 2 id take Ingram and Brown (Stone is very close 3rd)

Pg Marcus Smart
Sg Jaylen Brown
Sf Brandon Ingram
Pf We'll see
C We'll see

Who would u guys take??

[sofutomygaha]

All I know is that I've learned to stop lusting after the lottery prospects and to focus on the 10-20 guys. Chances are we're going to pick three of them.

[Celtics4ever]

How does that list not include, Thon Maker

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J236hoslYdc

I think he and the Skal are very good talents.

[max215]

How does that list not include, Thon Maker

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J236hoslYdc

I think he and the Skal are very good talents.

Thon is going to be in the 2017 Draft.

[MSceltic]

One poster has mentioned above, but Jamaal Murray reclassified to this year and signed with kentucky. He is already on the Canadian senior team and will be a top 10 pick imo. Just added a little more to the class