Author Topic: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade  (Read 6821 times)

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Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« on: July 02, 2015, 11:57:46 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Posted this in another thread, but deleted so as not to derail (got rather long). I just wanted to have a discussion about the reality of attaining a star via trade.

It's irritating to see so many talk about the wonderful "flexibility" DA is creating/maintaining without putting it into context. It sounds like there are a few, when using this term, are suggesting that the pieces DA has put in place will improve our chances of landing a star via trade. I agree and have few ways of conceptualizing our current difficulties, other than:

1. We can't lure a star via free agency
2. We don't have good enough assets to net a significant return
3. We like our assets a lot, do not want to part easily with them, and are waiting for the that disgruntled star to become available

All 3 may well be factors, but it does seem likely a combination of 1 and 3 can easily be the reasons we are where we are. I'm not discounting 2, but if 2 were the case, then we would still be in a similar position of focusing on asset collection and player development. So it ultimately seems to make the most sense to be patient and wait for the right disgruntled star to come along, right? This is where feces hit the fan for those of us hoping for immediate results -- big trades don't fall from trees.

2015: Dragic; J. Green; Knight; R. Jackson ; Mozgov; Waiters, JR/Shump (none)
2014: Rondo, Wright/Crowder; Love, Wiggins; Calderon & Co., Chandler (1 per LBJ)
2013: R. Gay; Gorat; Jennings; Iguodala; T. Evans; KG & Pierce (none)
2012: Dwight, Bynum, Iggy, Afflalo; Nash; Bogut, Ellis; Harden (2 per 2 crazy bigs, stupidity)
2011: C. Paul; Carmelo; G. Hill, K. Leonard; J. Green, Perk/Nate; Deron Williams, Favors/Harris (2 per 2 divas)
2010: Boozer; Lee; Amare; Bosh; Lebron (2 per LBJ/collusion)
2009: Chandler, Okafor; Diesel, Wallace (none)
2008: Iverson, Billups; Artest (none)

I could be missing some here, but... from a broad perspective, it seems there are a few common elements here: crazy bigs (Howard, Bynum), divas (Paul, Carmelo), LBJ/collusion (LBJ, Bosh), mental lapse (Harden). That is roughly 7 major moves in 7 1/2 years: 4 disgruntled stars, 2 due to LBJ, 1 mistake/financial decision. So if we are reliant upon a trade in order to become a contender again (arguably necessary, as discussed at length on the forum), then we're going to have to rely on landing a disgruntled star or a mistake/financial decision. Two issues that come with that:

1. Lack of availability. Who may actually become available? Cousins has been discussed, and while that's possible, Sacto's actions suggest they're pot committed. I honestly do not know who else may become available next year. Maybe GMs have a better idea, but often we do know beforehand who may be available b/c they're unhappy (Melo, Paul) or LBJ (LBJ & friends).

2. Who is the star? If you were in the positions of the other teams discussed, which of these stars would you want? I always considered Melo a franchise killer. If the opportunity presented itself to land him, would you really want him? I'm sure a large majority would say yes, but after some thought, you may change your mind. I would be far more confident in Chris Paul, at the time of his trade, than Melo.

So, in sports Poe fashion, the outlook does seem pretty bleak. I know this isn't all-encompassing, but broadly, landing a star via trade is not easy (yes, KG... did not leave him out intentionally). If FA isn't an option, and we aren't going to be bad/lucky enough to land the next Duncan, we will need to be both good (outbid lots of suitors) and extremely lucky (opportunity must arise, then need to outbid lots of suitors). 
« Last Edit: July 03, 2015, 12:54:22 AM by tarheelsxxiii »
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Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2015, 12:33:46 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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As I just mentioned in another thread, the simple reality is that the issue in question is "difficulty of attaining a star" not "difficulty of attaining a star via trade". 

The sad truth is that getting a star is difficult, no matter how you do it.  It requires a combination of two things:

1) Lots of careful planning and hard work to put you in a position to acquire a star
2) Lots of luck

If you have one and not the other, then you get no star.

It doesn't really matter how you choose to go after a star - via free agency, via trades, via the draft.  All three methods require the above two factors.

Now luck, obviously, cannot be controlled.  You can't change a teams salary cap structure so that it matches with yours, or force them to decide to move on from their star.  You can't change a players heart to force them to want to play for your city/team.  You can't mind control the ping pong balls to fall in your favor. 

That's all chance - luck - out of your control.

But you can control your position.  You can spend years acquiring picks, trade exceptions, young prospects and contracts of various sizes to put you in a strong position to make trades.  You can make moves to clear cap space to put you in a position to be able to sign free agents.  You can make your team really bad so that you can finish with a crappy record and increase your chance at scoring a top pick.

Danny has tried all of the above.  Least year he tanked and acquired assets.  This year he acquired more assets and cleared cap space.

Then lucky happened.  We got #6 last year.  All the big free agents re-signed with their existing teams, and the handful who didn't chose others.  No teams decided to change direction and auction off their stars.

That my friends, is the nature of the beast.

Danny Ainge has done it by the book and has done pretty much everything to put us in the position to get a star, and luck told us "better luck next time". 

Next year, he'll once again put us in the best position (hence the non-guaranteed contracts on Johnson and Jerebko) and he'll try that luck again.

Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2015, 12:34:02 AM »

Offline Stizz44

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Keep your eyes on: Cousins, Melo, Harrison Barnes, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, MKG, and Utah.
These the prime caniadates for mid-season trade.

Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2015, 12:36:03 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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2. Who is the star? If you were in the positions of the other teams discussed, which of these stars would you want? I always considered Melo a franchise killer. If the opportunity presented itself to land him, would you really want him? I'm sure a large majority would say yes, but after some thought, you may change your mind. I would be far more confident in Chris Paul, at the time of his trade, than Melo.

Yep, I'd take Melo in a heartbeat.  Especially with our current squad, which is (IMHO) a perfect fit for him.

We have nothing but support players who are begging for a ball-hungry superstar who can put points on the board at an alarming rate.  Plus one of our biggest needs is for a scoring wing.  Hard to find  a better fit for Melo.

i'd take CP3 too, though his medical history really does scare me. 

Given the choice of both, I'd probably go Melo for that reason...and because I just think he's a better fit given our needs.

Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2015, 09:39:33 AM »

Offline Hemingway

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Good point about luck. Also, it comes and goes. We were lucky to get a good haul for KG and PP we were unlucky not to be able to sign a top FA this summer(yet). We were lucky that Minny couldn't make it work with KG. We just need some more luck soon.

Melo could make a lot of sense. My fear is if someone that everyone would want comes on the block we might get beat out. Someone like Melo might have a lot of teams pass. We can't pass too many more times, we need a star soon to maximize the results on our current team.

Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2015, 09:47:38 AM »

Offline footey

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2. Who is the star? If you were in the positions of the other teams discussed, which of these stars would you want? I always considered Melo a franchise killer. If the opportunity presented itself to land him, would you really want him? I'm sure a large majority would say yes, but after some thought, you may change your mind. I would be far more confident in Chris Paul, at the time of his trade, than Melo.

Yep, I'd take Melo in a heartbeat.  Especially with our current squad, which is (IMHO) a perfect fit for him.

We have nothing but support players who are begging for a ball-hungry superstar who can put points on the board at an alarming rate.  Plus one of our biggest needs is for a scoring wing.  Hard to find  a better fit for Melo.

i'd take CP3 too, though his medical history really does scare me. 

Given the choice of both, I'd probably go Melo for that reason...and because I just think he's a better fit given our needs.

Melo would give us a 2-3 year run, tops, and we still would not be close to favorites to win the East during that time.  While I was delighted we put together the championship tandem of KG, RA and PP, it was always colored with the knowledge that it would be a limited run.  Would much rather hold off on building around a 32 year old player who sat last season out with an injury, and either wait for a younger guy (e.g., Cousins) to be in play, or just keep rebuilding the way we are.

Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2015, 09:49:17 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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2. Who is the star? If you were in the positions of the other teams discussed, which of these stars would you want? I always considered Melo a franchise killer. If the opportunity presented itself to land him, would you really want him? I'm sure a large majority would say yes, but after some thought, you may change your mind. I would be far more confident in Chris Paul, at the time of his trade, than Melo.

Yep, I'd take Melo in a heartbeat.  Especially with our current squad, which is (IMHO) a perfect fit for him.

We have nothing but support players who are begging for a ball-hungry superstar who can put points on the board at an alarming rate.  Plus one of our biggest needs is for a scoring wing.  Hard to find  a better fit for Melo.

i'd take CP3 too, though his medical history really does scare me. 

Given the choice of both, I'd probably go Melo for that reason...and because I just think he's a better fit given our needs.

Melo would give us a 2-3 year run, tops, and we still would not be close to favorites to win the East during that time.  While I was delighted we put together the championship tandem of KG, RA and PP, it was always colored with the knowledge that it would be a limited run.  Would much rather hold off on building around a 32 year old player who sat last season out with an injury, and either wait for a younger guy (e.g., Cousins) to be in play, or just keep rebuilding the way we are.

This is largely the same argument that people who advocate for tanking put forward.
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Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2015, 10:11:15 AM »

Offline td450

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You need to get a little lucky at some point. Right now, the most likely scenario is that the fragile Brook Lopez goes down, as he has in two of the last 4 years.

If we luck into a top 2 choice, we could get a franchise level guy. For 2016 that means either Simmons or Labissiere. If we don't, at least we might be able to get a quality scorer.


Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2015, 07:17:40 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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As I just mentioned in another thread, the simple reality is that the issue in question is "difficulty of attaining a star" not "difficulty of attaining a star via trade". 

The sad truth is that getting a star is difficult, no matter how you do it.  It requires a combination of two things:

1) Lots of careful planning and hard work to put you in a position to acquire a star
2) Lots of luck

If you have one and not the other, then you get no star.

It doesn't really matter how you choose to go after a star - via free agency, via trades, via the draft.  All three methods require the above two factors.

Now luck, obviously, cannot be controlled.  You can't change a teams salary cap structure so that it matches with yours, or force them to decide to move on from their star.  You can't change a players heart to force them to want to play for your city/team.  You can't mind control the ping pong balls to fall in your favor. 

That's all chance - luck - out of your control.

But you can control your position.  You can spend years acquiring picks, trade exceptions, young prospects and contracts of various sizes to put you in a strong position to make trades.  You can make moves to clear cap space to put you in a position to be able to sign free agents.  You can make your team really bad so that you can finish with a crappy record and increase your chance at scoring a top pick.

Danny has tried all of the above.  Least year he tanked and acquired assets.  This year he acquired more assets and cleared cap space.

Then lucky happened.  We got #6 last year.  All the big free agents re-signed with their existing teams, and the handful who didn't chose others.  No teams decided to change direction and auction off their stars.

That my friends, is the nature of the beast.

Danny Ainge has done it by the book and has done pretty much everything to put us in the position to get a star, and luck told us "better luck next time". 

Next year, he'll once again put us in the best position (hence the non-guaranteed contracts on Johnson and Jerebko) and he'll try that luck again.

I agree with you regarding the necessity of both shrew decision-making and luck in order have a successful rebuild. I think our posts were pretty overlapping in that regard. I also agree that DA has done a fine job of putting us in a position to make a move.

However, I attempted to direct the focus of attention to the reality of attaining a star via trade, rather than FA and/or draft, because that seems to be the most probable outcome for us in the future. That is where my concerns lie -- I don't doubt that we can do it or that management has not done a fine job of putting us in a position to move when the opportunity presents itself; instead, my concern lies with when that door comes knocking, if in fact it does at all.
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Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2015, 07:24:22 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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2. Who is the star? If you were in the positions of the other teams discussed, which of these stars would you want? I always considered Melo a franchise killer. If the opportunity presented itself to land him, would you really want him? I'm sure a large majority would say yes, but after some thought, you may change your mind. I would be far more confident in Chris Paul, at the time of his trade, than Melo.

Yep, I'd take Melo in a heartbeat.  Especially with our current squad, which is (IMHO) a perfect fit for him.

We have nothing but support players who are begging for a ball-hungry superstar who can put points on the board at an alarming rate.  Plus one of our biggest needs is for a scoring wing.  Hard to find  a better fit for Melo.

i'd take CP3 too, though his medical history really does scare me. 

Given the choice of both, I'd probably go Melo for that reason...and because I just think he's a better fit given our needs.

Melo would give us a 2-3 year run, tops, and we still would not be close to favorites to win the East during that time.  While I was delighted we put together the championship tandem of KG, RA and PP, it was always colored with the knowledge that it would be a limited run.  Would much rather hold off on building around a 32 year old player who sat last season out with an injury, and either wait for a younger guy (e.g., Cousins) to be in play, or just keep rebuilding the way we are.

I would not want to make that coin flip. I agree that we are perfectly assembled to support and benefit from a guy like Melo, and I could see it bringing us into the top 3 of the East. But I'd also fear that we would be committing a couple year's worth of rebuilding to a relatively questionable decision for a short window of opportunity.
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Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2015, 07:29:46 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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2. Who is the star? If you were in the positions of the other teams discussed, which of these stars would you want? I always considered Melo a franchise killer. If the opportunity presented itself to land him, would you really want him? I'm sure a large majority would say yes, but after some thought, you may change your mind. I would be far more confident in Chris Paul, at the time of his trade, than Melo.

Yep, I'd take Melo in a heartbeat.  Especially with our current squad, which is (IMHO) a perfect fit for him.

We have nothing but support players who are begging for a ball-hungry superstar who can put points on the board at an alarming rate.  Plus one of our biggest needs is for a scoring wing.  Hard to find  a better fit for Melo.

i'd take CP3 too, though his medical history really does scare me. 

Given the choice of both, I'd probably go Melo for that reason...and because I just think he's a better fit given our needs.

Melo would give us a 2-3 year run, tops, and we still would not be close to favorites to win the East during that time.  While I was delighted we put together the championship tandem of KG, RA and PP, it was always colored with the knowledge that it would be a limited run.  Would much rather hold off on building around a 32 year old player who sat last season out with an injury, and either wait for a younger guy (e.g., Cousins) to be in play, or just keep rebuilding the way we are.

This is largely the same argument that people who advocate for tanking put forward.

Pretty much.

So would you go all-in on Melo, or wait for a Cousins?
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Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2015, 07:52:51 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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You need to get a little lucky at some point. Right now, the most likely scenario is that the fragile Brook Lopez goes down, as he has in two of the last 4 years.

If we luck into a top 2 choice, we could get a franchise level guy. For 2016 that means either Simmons or Labissiere. If we don't, at least we might be able to get a quality scorer.

Speaking of Simmons, I just watched this highlight video.  His ball handling and passing are amazing.  Can't wait to watch LSU games next year.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KnjzoTBNwGo

Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #12 on: July 04, 2015, 11:04:39 AM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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There was nobody special available this year.  But who knows in the future.
Stars had to align perfectly for Ray Allen and KG trades to happen.
But they did.  And then we won a championship with those guys, and had a really close chance at winning a 2nd one too until Perk got hurt.

I think it's almost like GMs are afraid to get fleeced by DA after that epic trade.
But I know he's always looking.  That's the one thing I'll give him credit for.
He's always looking to add value to the team, and waiting to make that big trade happen when the opportunity becomes available.

Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #13 on: July 04, 2015, 11:21:44 AM »

Offline FreddieJ

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Keep your eyes on: Cousins, Melo, Harrison Barnes, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, MKG, and Utah.
These the prime caniadates for mid-season trade.

Cousins isn't going anywhere til his final year at the earliest IMO

Re: Difficulty of attaining a star via trade
« Reply #14 on: July 04, 2015, 11:37:05 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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I'd be concerned giving up a huge haul for Melo that we wouldn't have time to build something around him before he hit 34 or 35 and really began to decline.

That doesn't mean I wouldn't trade for him, but I wouldn't give up the whole stack of assets for him.

Ideally, Ainge will find a way to put together a core that can theoretically play together for 5-8 years.  Developing continuity and experience together is important.  It's exceedingly difficult for even a very, very good group to come together in one or two years. 

It requires an absolutely devastating assemblage of talent.  Even then, they'll be likely to struggle as the Heat did in their first year together.  The '08 Celts took seven games to beat the 8th seed Hawks, after all.
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