Posted this in another thread, but deleted so as not to derail (got rather long). I just wanted to have a discussion about the reality of attaining a star via trade.
It's irritating to see so many talk about the wonderful "flexibility" DA is creating/maintaining without putting it into context. It sounds like there are a few, when using this term, are suggesting that the pieces DA has put in place will improve our chances of landing a star via trade. I agree and have few ways of conceptualizing our current difficulties, other than:
1. We can't lure a star via free agency
2. We don't have good enough assets to net a significant return
3. We like our assets a lot, do not want to part easily with them, and are waiting for the that disgruntled star to become available
All 3 may well be factors, but it does seem likely a combination of 1 and 3 can easily be the reasons we are where we are. I'm not discounting 2, but if 2 were the case, then we would still be in a similar position of focusing on asset collection and player development. So it ultimately seems to make the most sense to be patient and wait for the right disgruntled star to come along, right? This is where feces hit the fan for those of us hoping for immediate results -- big trades don't fall from trees.
2015: Dragic; J. Green; Knight; R. Jackson ; Mozgov; Waiters, JR/Shump (none)
2014: Rondo, Wright/Crowder; Love, Wiggins; Calderon & Co., Chandler (1 per LBJ)
2013: R. Gay; Gorat; Jennings; Iguodala; T. Evans; KG & Pierce (none)
2012: Dwight, Bynum, Iggy, Afflalo; Nash; Bogut, Ellis; Harden (2 per 2 crazy bigs, stupidity)
2011: C. Paul; Carmelo; G. Hill, K. Leonard; J. Green, Perk/Nate; Deron Williams, Favors/Harris (2 per 2 divas)
2010: Boozer; Lee; Amare; Bosh; Lebron (2 per LBJ/collusion)
2009: Chandler, Okafor; Diesel, Wallace (none)
2008: Iverson, Billups; Artest (none)
I could be missing some here, but... from a broad perspective, it seems there are a few common elements here: crazy bigs (Howard, Bynum), divas (Paul, Carmelo), LBJ/collusion (LBJ, Bosh), mental lapse (Harden). That is roughly 7 major moves in 7 1/2 years: 4 disgruntled stars, 2 due to LBJ, 1 mistake/financial decision. So if we are reliant upon a trade in order to become a contender again (arguably necessary, as discussed at length on the forum), then we're going to have to rely on landing a disgruntled star or a mistake/financial decision. Two issues that come with that:
1. Lack of availability. Who may actually become available? Cousins has been discussed, and while that's possible, Sacto's actions suggest they're pot committed. I honestly do not know who else may become available next year. Maybe GMs have a better idea, but often we do know beforehand who may be available b/c they're unhappy (Melo, Paul) or LBJ (LBJ & friends).
2. Who is the star? If you were in the positions of the other teams discussed, which of these stars would you want? I always considered Melo a franchise killer. If the opportunity presented itself to land him, would you really want him? I'm sure a large majority would say yes, but after some thought, you may change your mind. I would be far more confident in Chris Paul, at the time of his trade, than Melo.
So, in sports Poe fashion, the outlook does seem pretty bleak. I know this isn't all-encompassing, but broadly, landing a star via trade is not easy (yes, KG... did not leave him out intentionally). If FA isn't an option, and we aren't going to be bad/lucky enough to land the next Duncan, we will need to be both good (outbid lots of suitors) and extremely lucky (opportunity must arise, then need to outbid lots of suitors).