Random thoughts to talk you off the ledge

[Neurotic Guy]

24-12 is a 55 win pace, which would be enough for a #2 seed the last 3 years. That's probably too much to ask, but miss the playoffs? In that same time period, 38 wins has gotten you in every year. We've brought everyone back, many of whom are young players improving, except for Amir Johnson who is a clear upgrade over Bass and a starting center from a playoff team.

24-12 ~ 55-27 (#2 seed)
20-16 ~ 45-37 (#5 seed)
17-19 ~ 38-44 (#8 seed)

And folks are saying that we won't even accomplish the lowest tier above? Talk about pessimism.

And we only had IT at the end of the season.
Just remember where we were last November and where we are now. We have much better team now.

It also appears that it will be a team that is attitudinally in the same mode as last year's stretch run team. Basically adding Rozier and Johnson to an already intensely motivated roster. This is a team that won't give up and, as a result, will be competitive in most games.  I think an above .500 year is likely.

[flybono]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Your drinking the Kool-Aid Brother!
15 26 vs Playoff Teams which included 5 wins end of April when Clev Mil Tor mailed it in. Take away those 5 games, do the math..

[Boris Badenov]

Lots of good things in that OP, TP.

I've been feeling like I was one of the only ones who's been taking things in stride and having a glass half-full view.

Of course, maybe I just set myself up to be pleasantly surprised no matter what. I went back and found my predictions for the offseason:

Here, from the most sourcey of sources who are privy to Danny's master strategy, is the airtight plan Danny will pursue next year:

1. Be rumored as "in the mix to move into the top 5" leading up to the draft, then move down three spots in the draft, drafting someone who vaguely dissatisfies almost everyone while picking up a top-55-protected 2019 second rounder as compensation;
2. Be rumored as "willing to gamble" later in the draft, then draft a savvy four-year guy with no upside at pick 28, slotting him into our ever-growing stable of NBA 9th men;
3. Be rumored as "pursuing all top-tier free agents including Aldridge, Jordan, Monroe, etc." then sign Ekpe Udoh and Justin Hamilton to 2 year, $3 million deals;
4. Be rumored as "looking to make a big deadline move," then flip the Rondo TPE for another 9th man, a second rounder and another trade exception;
5. Have all of the above generate approximately 4 million thread-pages on CelticsBlog.

It's going to be quite a ride.

[GreenWarrior]

1)   So-called “hot” free agent destinations struck out. If you haven’t read about how the Lakers struck out on Lamarcus Aldridge, you should. See the link below this bullet for an excellent article by Kelly Dwyer. It’s really telling. Basically Aldridge was looking for a team with a vision, including one that was based on advanced analytics, and the Lakers’ presentation to him fell flat. Give NBA players some credit. This notion that all they want is palm trees, warm weather, low income tax rates and clubs that stay open past 2am is not based in reality. Oh yeah, I almost forgot: the glamorous Knicks haven’t signed anybody of consequence yet, either. In the end, almost all the big-name free agents will stay with their current teams. The remaining ones, it would seem, are attracted to places with a clear path forward and a chance to play for a title.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/the-lakers-lost-out-on-lamarcus-aldridge-by-being-the-lakers-222248637.html

sooo because a star turned down the lakers I should be excited? sorry but the lakers suck right now, just like us. i'd question his intelligence if he chose either.
 

2)   Tank at this point? You may lose the Celtics biggest asset. I’m talking about Stevens. This is a point that some posters bring up on occasion, but doesn’t get enough attention. We’re 2 years into a 6-year contract for Brad Stevens. Judging from a handful of reports that have come out since he came to Boston, there are plenty of offers waiting for him in the college game. Can you realistically scrap the whole process and embrace a painful 1-3 years of horrible losing without him jumping ship? If he does, how easily can you replace him with another good young coach and rebuild the basketball culture that Stevens is putting in place? In the end, the only way from here is to move forward, not back.

if you truly believe it's the coaches in this league, maybe this isn't the sport for you.

a coach in this league has one major task to be a "great" coach, and that's manage the egos of millionaires.

stevens hasn't done that yet. in fact he couldn't handle below level stars like green and rondo. so the jury is still out. I'd rather have a star or 3.
 

3)   Be thankful our GM isn’t stupid enough to sacrifice flexibility. Ainge has been beating this drum for a while now, talking endlessly about how you can’t perfectly predict the future, you’ve just got to be ready and flexible to pounce when the right opportunity presents itself. This is what he did the first time, lest we forget. He had to tear down the Gaston/Jim O’brien/Pierce&Antoine version of the Celtics that was going nowhere, so he spent years gathering up assets and nurturing young players until something happened, specifically that KG finally gave up on the Timberwolves and decided for a fresh start. We don’t know when this opportunity will come, but we should be thankful our GM is thinking this way. There’s a reason why those Jerebko and Amir Johnson 2nd years are unguaranteed. Ainge is loading the bazooka, but he won't waste his ammunition without a bonafide target in sight.

I agree we shouldn't be makin moves just to make moves.
 

4)   Non-lottery picks are not worthless. After the draft, when Charlotte reportedly turned down 4 first-rounders for the #9 pick, a lot of us were quick to declare all of the Celtics’ non-lottery picks to be worth nothing more than a bag of balls. Slow down. Let’s keep in mind that the headliner for the KG deal, Al Jefferson, was the 15th pick. A lot of the top free agents we’ve been salivating over have been low-ish picks; Jimmy Butler was 30th , Draymond Green was 35th, Tobias Harris was 19th. Having lots of picks isn’t just about moving up. It’s having lots of small chances at striking gold.

other than Draymond Green, what have all those other players done? who are they?

5)   Who says we’ll be worse than last year? I keep hearing this and I don’t get it. I suppose I understand the argument that the rest of the East will improve over last year. But so will we. Nevermind the fact that Amir Johnson is an upgrade over Bass, or that we’ve added some depth through the draft. We’ll also have Isaiah for the whole year (didn’t we have the #2 record in the East last year after trading for him?), a presumably improved Marcus Smart in his 2nd year and with a fresher ankle. Bradley, Crowder, Olynyk, Sullinger are all 24. Zeller is 25. Thomas and Evan Turner are 26. Just keeping these guys together and developing them should lift the team gradually, until Ainge has an opportunity to make a bigger move.

it's the eastern conference, we could be good, we could be bad. if there's a lot of solid teams in the east this yr.? we have no chance.

I can't believe how many C's fans are delusional. this team is in a bad spot.

[tarheelsxxiii]

moved

[Chris22]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Your drinking the Kool-Aid Brother!
15 26 vs Playoff Teams which included 5 wins end of April when Clev Mil Tor mailed it in. Take away those 5 games, do the math..

The math is 24-12 in the last 36 games with IT.
And we have added Amir, Rozier, Hunter, Mickey, and Jerbko.
We are a very young and deep team.

[hodgy03038]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Your drinking the Kool-Aid Brother!
15 26 vs Playoff Teams which included 5 wins end of April when Clev Mil Tor mailed it in. Take away those 5 games, do the math..

The math is 24-12 in the last 36 games with IT.
And we have added Amir, Rozier, Hunter, Mickey, and Jerbko.
We are a very young and deep team.

Jerebko was on the team - we didn't add him.

[Chris22]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Your drinking the Kool-Aid Brother!
15 26 vs Playoff Teams which included 5 wins end of April when Clev Mil Tor mailed it in. Take away those 5 games, do the math..

The math is 24-12 in the last 36 games with IT.
And we have added Amir, Rozier, Hunter, Mickey, and Jerbko.
We are a very young and deep team.

Jerebko was on the team - we didn't add him.

We added him from the beginning of last year.

[slamtheking]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Sometimes I come off as the downer guy but people that know me and followed my thoughts and predictions know me as a realist. I like everyone on here wants the C's to be great.

I just don't see how anyone can say we are much better. Unless the young guys improve in leaps and bounds I see us as worse. Amir does not make us 1 game better IMO, at best that is a lateral move. So how did we get better?

Also I'm telling you IT will be driving people crazy with anger in the very near future, he's 5'9" gunner.

You don't see how we are much better than last year?
We have added IT, Crowder, Amir, Rozier, Hunter, Jerebko, and Mickey.
All of our youngsters are a year older. James Young just put on 20 lbs of muscle.
And we were 24-12 in our last 36 games.
I think people here are underrating our team.

the 24-12 pace at the end of last season was deceptive.  no one can look at that and seriously extrapolate the team will perform at an equivalent pace this season. 

going in to this year, ignoring the improvements other teams have made, the C's have basically swapped out Amir for Bass.  I like Amir and see that as a slight improvement -- figuring Amir to get a lot of time at center and keeping Sully and KO at PF.  The have IT and Crowder for the full season -- sure, a plus, but let's be honest, they're still just bench-quality guys.  a full season of Jerebko.  not going to move the needle at all.  3 rookies with only Rozier that might get any decent minutes at some point but he duplicates what Smart does.  As for the young guys, sure I figure they'll improve somewhat but I also think the young players on other teams will improve as well and since a number of them on other teams were higher draft picks, I don't think it's a stretch to believe those players could make larger improvements in their games.

Now, if I look at the other teams in the East, no one that finished with a better record than us figures to do worse next year, certainly not to the point where they'd be a worse team than the C's.  That's 6 teams right there penned in for the playoffs.  Miami and Indy finished not too far behind us and are getting major stars back this season (not to mention improving via the draft).  I would anticipate them leapfrogging us in the standings.  Could probably pen them in as the other 2 playoff teams so C's looking at the lottery.

Next, Charlotte.  they underperformed last year and have made moves to address that.  like the moves or not, they could improve enough to pass us as well.  C's had the same record as Utah.  They have a better balanced roster and young players who have actually shown improvement so it's not a stretch to think that will continue.  That's not even counting any improvement out of Exum who could start showing he deserved to be a high pick.  Add in another lotto-talent this year so more improvement.  Another team that could finish with a better record than the C's. 

While I'm at it in terms of the West, 7 of the Western playoff teams figure to be back there next year with OKC replacing Dallas.  I don't think it's a stretch to think that the last 2 Western teams that miss the playoffs will each have a better record than the first eastern team to miss the playoffs further pushing the C's down into the lottery (improving the odds in other words). Depending on what Phx does with their roster and if Minny's youth movement gels, C's could finish with a worse record than them as well.

I know this thread is intended to get people thinking positive thoughts but just based on what's occurred so far, I don't think it's a stretch that the C's will not only miss the playoffs but could seriously be looking at maybe the 8th best odds of getting the top pick in the lottery.

Want to bet?

sure thing.  5 TPs if you're up for it.  5 for you if they make the playoffs.  5 for me if they don't.  the way I see it, I win either way because I either get 5 tps or I get what I really want and that's them in the playoffs.

[slamtheking]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Sometimes I come off as the downer guy but people that know me and followed my thoughts and predictions know me as a realist. I like everyone on here wants the C's to be great.

I just don't see how anyone can say we are much better. Unless the young guys improve in leaps and bounds I see us as worse. Amir does not make us 1 game better IMO, at best that is a lateral move. So how did we get better?

Also I'm telling you IT will be driving people crazy with anger in the very near future, he's 5'9" gunner.

You don't see how we are much better than last year?
We have added IT, Crowder, Amir, Rozier, Hunter, Jerebko, and Mickey.
All of our youngsters are a year older. James Young just put on 20 lbs of muscle.
And we were 24-12 in our last 36 games.
I think people here are underrating our team.

the 24-12 pace at the end of last season was deceptive.  no one can look at that and seriously extrapolate the team will perform at an equivalent pace this season. 

I think this is much more of an opinion than a fact. Lots of people can extrapolate how well they played in the second half over a full year.

I for one think it can be extrapolated +/- 5 wins. People use the argument that other teams don't try as hard during the dog days of the NBA. But I think outworking teams is just what will happen this upcoming year. It was also the only time they had continuity because there weren't a lot of roster changes from that point on. I think how they finished the season is much more of an indicator than how we played before that point in the season.

There is something to be said for continuity of roster and having the right type of players with the right attitude on your team. None of those positives will change from last year. An argument can absolutely be made for the end to this season carrying over to next season and you can't simply dismiss it as 100% false because it's not what you believe.

of course it's opinion.  where did I say it was fact? 

if they play on a 2-win-to-1-loss ratio again next season I'd be stunned.  thrilled, but stunned.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Well, they do call him "Trader" Danny....not "Drafter" Danny....so I AM expecting one or two deals before the season starts.

[Chris22]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Sometimes I come off as the downer guy but people that know me and followed my thoughts and predictions know me as a realist. I like everyone on here wants the C's to be great.

I just don't see how anyone can say we are much better. Unless the young guys improve in leaps and bounds I see us as worse. Amir does not make us 1 game better IMO, at best that is a lateral move. So how did we get better?

Also I'm telling you IT will be driving people crazy with anger in the very near future, he's 5'9" gunner.

You don't see how we are much better than last year?
We have added IT, Crowder, Amir, Rozier, Hunter, Jerebko, and Mickey.
All of our youngsters are a year older. James Young just put on 20 lbs of muscle.
And we were 24-12 in our last 36 games.
I think people here are underrating our team.

the 24-12 pace at the end of last season was deceptive.  no one can look at that and seriously extrapolate the team will perform at an equivalent pace this season. 

going in to this year, ignoring the improvements other teams have made, the C's have basically swapped out Amir for Bass.  I like Amir and see that as a slight improvement -- figuring Amir to get a lot of time at center and keeping Sully and KO at PF.  The have IT and Crowder for the full season -- sure, a plus, but let's be honest, they're still just bench-quality guys.  a full season of Jerebko.  not going to move the needle at all.  3 rookies with only Rozier that might get any decent minutes at some point but he duplicates what Smart does.  As for the young guys, sure I figure they'll improve somewhat but I also think the young players on other teams will improve as well and since a number of them on other teams were higher draft picks, I don't think it's a stretch to believe those players could make larger improvements in their games.

Now, if I look at the other teams in the East, no one that finished with a better record than us figures to do worse next year, certainly not to the point where they'd be a worse team than the C's.  That's 6 teams right there penned in for the playoffs.  Miami and Indy finished not too far behind us and are getting major stars back this season (not to mention improving via the draft).  I would anticipate them leapfrogging us in the standings.  Could probably pen them in as the other 2 playoff teams so C's looking at the lottery.

Next, Charlotte.  they underperformed last year and have made moves to address that.  like the moves or not, they could improve enough to pass us as well.  C's had the same record as Utah.  They have a better balanced roster and young players who have actually shown improvement so it's not a stretch to think that will continue.  That's not even counting any improvement out of Exum who could start showing he deserved to be a high pick.  Add in another lotto-talent this year so more improvement.  Another team that could finish with a better record than the C's. 

While I'm at it in terms of the West, 7 of the Western playoff teams figure to be back there next year with OKC replacing Dallas.  I don't think it's a stretch to think that the last 2 Western teams that miss the playoffs will each have a better record than the first eastern team to miss the playoffs further pushing the C's down into the lottery (improving the odds in other words). Depending on what Phx does with their roster and if Minny's youth movement gels, C's could finish with a worse record than them as well.

I know this thread is intended to get people thinking positive thoughts but just based on what's occurred so far, I don't think it's a stretch that the C's will not only miss the playoffs but could seriously be looking at maybe the 8th best odds of getting the top pick in the lottery.

Want to bet?

sure thing.  5 TPs if you're up for it.  5 for you if they make the playoffs.  5 for me if they don't.  the way I see it, I win either way because I either get 5 tps or I get what I really want and that's them in the playoffs.

Deal.
We are definitely making the playoffs with this team.
This team is the NBA version of Seal Team Six.

[slamtheking]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Sometimes I come off as the downer guy but people that know me and followed my thoughts and predictions know me as a realist. I like everyone on here wants the C's to be great.

I just don't see how anyone can say we are much better. Unless the young guys improve in leaps and bounds I see us as worse. Amir does not make us 1 game better IMO, at best that is a lateral move. So how did we get better?

Also I'm telling you IT will be driving people crazy with anger in the very near future, he's 5'9" gunner.

You don't see how we are much better than last year?
We have added IT, Crowder, Amir, Rozier, Hunter, Jerebko, and Mickey.
All of our youngsters are a year older. James Young just put on 20 lbs of muscle.
And we were 24-12 in our last 36 games.
I think people here are underrating our team.

the 24-12 pace at the end of last season was deceptive.  no one can look at that and seriously extrapolate the team will perform at an equivalent pace this season. 

going in to this year, ignoring the improvements other teams have made, the C's have basically swapped out Amir for Bass.  I like Amir and see that as a slight improvement -- figuring Amir to get a lot of time at center and keeping Sully and KO at PF.  The have IT and Crowder for the full season -- sure, a plus, but let's be honest, they're still just bench-quality guys.  a full season of Jerebko.  not going to move the needle at all.  3 rookies with only Rozier that might get any decent minutes at some point but he duplicates what Smart does.  As for the young guys, sure I figure they'll improve somewhat but I also think the young players on other teams will improve as well and since a number of them on other teams were higher draft picks, I don't think it's a stretch to believe those players could make larger improvements in their games.

Now, if I look at the other teams in the East, no one that finished with a better record than us figures to do worse next year, certainly not to the point where they'd be a worse team than the C's.  That's 6 teams right there penned in for the playoffs.  Miami and Indy finished not too far behind us and are getting major stars back this season (not to mention improving via the draft).  I would anticipate them leapfrogging us in the standings.  Could probably pen them in as the other 2 playoff teams so C's looking at the lottery.

Next, Charlotte.  they underperformed last year and have made moves to address that.  like the moves or not, they could improve enough to pass us as well.  C's had the same record as Utah.  They have a better balanced roster and young players who have actually shown improvement so it's not a stretch to think that will continue.  That's not even counting any improvement out of Exum who could start showing he deserved to be a high pick.  Add in another lotto-talent this year so more improvement.  Another team that could finish with a better record than the C's. 

While I'm at it in terms of the West, 7 of the Western playoff teams figure to be back there next year with OKC replacing Dallas.  I don't think it's a stretch to think that the last 2 Western teams that miss the playoffs will each have a better record than the first eastern team to miss the playoffs further pushing the C's down into the lottery (improving the odds in other words). Depending on what Phx does with their roster and if Minny's youth movement gels, C's could finish with a worse record than them as well.

I know this thread is intended to get people thinking positive thoughts but just based on what's occurred so far, I don't think it's a stretch that the C's will not only miss the playoffs but could seriously be looking at maybe the 8th best odds of getting the top pick in the lottery.

Want to bet?

sure thing.  5 TPs if you're up for it.  5 for you if they make the playoffs.  5 for me if they don't.  the way I see it, I win either way because I either get 5 tps or I get what I really want and that's them in the playoffs.

Deal.
We are definitely making the playoffs with this team.
This team is the NBA version of Seal Team Six.

excellent.  I would like nothing better than to lose this bet.