UPDATE: Celtics "frontrunner" to sign Harris, reports Steve Kyler

[knuckleballer]

Giving max money to non-max players is a mistake.  I know he is young, and has decent numbers, but what impact does he have on winning?

But you have to define what a max contract is.  Just estimating the numbers, it will be about $16 mil for Harris this season.  For an older veteran, it is about $22m.  With the salary cap going up to $89m next year, it will be about $20m for a young guy and $28m for an older guy.  In 2017, with the cap going up to $108m, it will be about about $25m for a young guy and $34m for an older guy, meanwhile Harris will be locked in at around $17m that year. 

If Harris improves at all, and he's only 22, that contract will be a bargain.  Considering he plays a position of need and his youth, this seems like an easy decision to me.

I understand.  But we can't ignore the pretty big assumption that is being made here; that Harris (because he is young) will necessarily get better and better.  That certainly does not always happen and you have to be concerned that his numbers are inflated now due to being on a bad team.

When you look at his comps on basketball reference, they aren't too encouraging to be sure.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/harrito02.html

I'm not sure the comps mean much.  Powe and Sully were two of his comps and they are different types of players and Leon Powe was older his rookie year than Harris was last year.

[rondohondo]

who exactly?

I'd like to see us try to trade for Cody Zeller or Favors (TPE).  I was really hoping we'd make a strong run at Middleton.

At this point, I'd prefer a few low-risk gambles to a deal for a guy like Harris.  Maintain as much flexibility as possible so that we can go after elite talent when the opportunity emerges.

elite talent arose this off-season with Aldridge and Love, neither wanted anything to do with the c's because we lack talent .

We can still make trades even if we sign Harris you know .....

Maxed out in the 3rd year of his deal, Harris would only be taking up about 16% of the teams cap space.

[heyvik]

I would much rather spend the money on Kevin Love or Greg Monroe which we still have a  shot at.  Tobias Harris isn't winning us a championship.  Bad move.

Kevin Love and Greg Monroe arent winning a championship either ..

Well we apparently gave Harris an offer sheet. I'm fine with it as long as it's a lowball offer.  Harris is a good player. I just wouldn't break the bank for him.  If Love and Monroe are off the table signing Harris makes sense.

WALKER834 PLEASE SITE YOUR SOURCE

[walker834]

I would much rather spend the money on Kevin Love or Greg Monroe which we still have a  shot at.  Tobias Harris isn't winning us a championship.  Bad move.

Kevin Love and Greg Monroe arent winning a championship either ..

Well we apparently gave Harris an offer sheet. I'm fine with it as long as it's a lowball offer.  Harris is a good player. I just wouldn't break the bank for him.  If Love and Monroe are off the table signing Harris makes sense.

WALKER834 PLEASE SITE YOUR SOURCE

https://twitter.com/CelticsFanHub

I don't know how accurate this source is. Why I said apparently.

[Eddie20]

I would much rather spend the money on Kevin Love or Greg Monroe which we still have a  shot at.  Tobias Harris isn't winning us a championship.  Bad move.

Kevin Love and Greg Monroe arent winning a championship either ..

Well we apparently gave Harris an offer sheet. I'm fine with it as long as it's a lowball offer.  Harris is a good player. I just wouldn't break the bank for him.  If Love and Monroe are off the table signing Harris makes sense.

WALKER834 PLEASE SITE YOUR SOURCE

I think it's from here..

Celtics Fan Hub ?@CelticsFanHub  1h1 hour ago
Report: The Celtics have given Tobias Harris an offer sheet.

[oldtype]

We learned this summer that to get an elite free agent, we need to have that first elite player in place.

Aside from picking up a top 3 pick or somehow trading for a superstar, the only chance we have to do this is to acquire assets that could potentially turn into elite players.

As a productive 22-year-old with upside, Harris is another lottery ticket in that regard. I'm willing to pay the current "fake max" for that small chance alone.

[walker834]

I would much rather spend the money on Kevin Love or Greg Monroe which we still have a  shot at.  Tobias Harris isn't winning us a championship.  Bad move.

Kevin Love and Greg Monroe arent winning a championship either ..

Well we apparently gave Harris an offer sheet. I'm fine with it as long as it's a lowball offer.  Harris is a good player. I just wouldn't break the bank for him.  If Love and Monroe are off the table signing Harris makes sense.

WALKER834 PLEASE SITE YOUR SOURCE

I think it's from here..

Celtics Fan Hub ?@CelticsFanHub  1h1 hour ago
Report: The Celtics have given Tobias Harris an offer sheet.

Right i read it here though. The link was already given in another thread.  Why I didn't think I needed to link it.  Sry.

[Evantime34]

There is a good chance that his defensive issues were exacerbated by playing on a young team with a coach that wasn't great. He scored efficiently yet being on a team with almost no spacing.

You're aware that stats like DRPM are specifically designed to correct for factors like those, right?  Are you're aware that he's ranked #77 in DRPM among SFs?  And it would be one thing if his offense was strong enough to compensate, but he's also got a negative ORPM.

What am I missing here?

DRPM corrects for his teammates, and their individual numbers. It does not correct for the coach, and the fit of teammates with each other.

Certain players are better fits with each other. Those numbers are figured out by running a regression that corrects for his teammates so that they can figure out someones worth independent of their teammates.

The problem is the game isn't played independent of your teammates. On that team Channing Frye did not have a great season, but when he was on Phoenix his RPM numbers were better, although those numbers are regressed to eliminate the effect of his teammates, he still performed considerably better by those numbers when he was in Phoenix because the situation was such that he could succeed.

Advanced stats are great when you use them to back up what you see, when you just say this guy isn't good because he has a low RPM you are being lazy. Fit, situation and coaching all matter.

[BudweiserCeltic]

https://twitter.com/CelticsFanHub

People, please stop using this source as a reporter. They have no insight, they get actual reports from twitter and twist their meanings.

Thank you.

[walker834]

Alrighty then.  I wasn't sure.  It was linked here.   Not really my fault.

[sadleprechaun]

I'm not sure the comps mean much.  Powe and Sully were two of his comps and they are different types of players and Leon Powe was older his rookie year than Harris was last year.

Before you weighed in on those comps, it might have been good to read up on how they're created and what they mean:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/similar.html

[BudweiserCeltic]

Alrighty then.  I wasn't sure.  It was linked here.   Not really my fault.

Just talking in general, I've seen it cited quite a few times already in this forum.

[walker834]

Alrighty then.  I wasn't sure.  It was linked here.   Not really my fault.

Just talking in general, I've seen it cited quite a few times already in this forum.

Runnin with the devil.  haha. I hear you though. I'm  usually good with that stuff too. I can't stand rumors and false information.

[sofutomygaha]

Who else here is trying to get themselves excited about Harris?

Watching highlights and breakdowns... he looks to me like a less athletic Jeff Green. As a scorer he seems like a very similar player-- you guys who have been following him more closely, how does the comparison strike you?

The big differences would be (1) he's a more active rebounder than Green has ever been, and (2) as everyone loves to point out he's only 22 years old.

Abstractly speaking, if you had a guy who could give you prime 28yo Jeff Green's game and production in a 22yo body, how much is that worth?

[knuckleballer]

I'm not sure the comps mean much.  Powe and Sully were two of his comps and they are different types of players and Leon Powe was older his rookie year than Harris was last year.

Before you weighed in on those comps, it might have been good to read up on how they're created and what they mean:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/similar.html

My point remains the same.