This isn't the year to spend

[GreenCoffeeBean]

Hey everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster here.

When you're a Celtics fan, the only thing that really matters are banners. Winning banners takes a combination of an all-star, or a star core like we had in 2008, combined with up and coming youth infused with veteran presence to keep the ship on point.

Why am I bringing this up? Because our current roster is very young, all-star-less, and a significant portion of our roster for the next 2-4 years hasn't been drafted yet. Free Agency can bring stars and veterans but we're sorely missing other important pieces of a championship caliber team. Not to mention, there is stigma that the Celtics have had trouble luring the all-star/star type players and given the early new leaks regarding scheduled visits, this year appears to be no different.

But let's say we can go out and get us some of the stars. The age range that these players are falling in this year seems to be in the 27 to 31 years old range. LaMarcus Aldridge is 31, Marc Gasol is 30, Kevin Love and DeAndre Jordan will be 27. While these FAs are in their primes right now, by the time our young players and future draft picks are hitting their stride the FAs we spend money on THIS YEAR will be falling out of their prime despite having big money contracts. Now those star FAs have shifted to the "Veteran Presence" category but at a much higher pay grade.

Not to mention, all of the top players in this years FA crop have their eyes set on the new salary cap money so most aren't signing long term deals. So we get a star or two for a couple of years when we are lacking the other necessary championship pieces and then have to go through this all over again when maybe Smart, Young, Rozier, Hunter etc. are finally developed? Sure, maybe we win a few more games in 2016 and 2017 but we risk going back to square one.

The combination of pay, age and timing are probably one of the reasons people are so intrigued by Tobias Harris. He will likely just be hitting his prime in 3-4 years but if we really want to reap that it will probably be on the second contract we give him, not the first. There's also risk that a guy like Harris is at already at his ceiling. Yuck.

I just don't currently see the ingredients for the secret championship recipe in the TIMING of this year's FA crop, our current roster and player development. We might even have to sit 2016's FA season out. Maybe 2017 will finally be the year where all of the other pieces are put together to where spending on a great FA makes sense to go and capture that next banner.

So remember, while spending gobs of money can be exciting (or downright depressing depending on who that money gets spent on), given our current roster, future draft picks and the weird future salary cap changes the truly great players are holding out for, this year just isn't the year to spend big.

Anyway, thanks for hearing me out. Enjoy the FA season!

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

When is the time exactly? 5+ years from now? After the season EVERY team will be 40 million of free money in the next 2 years, by the time that is over there will be no high level FA available as all the good ones will be up this season or next. We are fighting against a few teams and people are saying we have no chance, how will we beat the other 29 teams next season and beyond who will all have money?

We should get the best ones that we can, while we can. Then if they don't get any better (Harris) we package them with other assets and get someone better, even if he doesn't get better he is a valuable player who will be even more valuable on what will be a good contract in a season or 2.

[Hemingway]

This IS the time to spend. F it, I've explained it enough, think whatever you want.

[Csfan1984]

I'm in the save cap for 2016 camp. Biggest point against it seems to be our FA draw. Without one star already it's difficult attracting a top FA. I'd take the shot though if I knew how the RFA situation was going to play out. I suppose offering 3 option players low max isn't bad though with cap rising. Team will just need those Brooklyn picks to luck out. I'm done complaining DA is just gonna be in the middle on this.

[gpap]

Right…so we'll just waste our time watching this team being mediocre for another year

Great!!

[tazzmaniac]

This is exactly the year to spend while we have cap space and most teams don't.  The following couple off-seasons everyone will have cap space.  However we should not be focused on the older free agents like Gasol and Aldridge.  I'd be going after the younger MAX/near-MAX players (e.g. Butler, Love, Harris, Middleton, Monroe). 

[sadleprechaun]

I basically agree with the overall premise--there's no point in making moves that turn us into just a good team.  We need moves that turn us into a championship team.  And there's absolutely the danger of making moves that improve us in the short term but hurt us (or limit our flexibility) in the long term.

Harris has the profile of a guy who could be good in the long-term, though: he's young, he's possibly still improving, and he won't require us to break the bank.  What worries me is that he's pretty awful in RPM, which is a predictive stat.  There's good reason to be skeptical about Harris and wonder if the improvements he made last year will continue.

Middleton is young, possibly still improving, and probably WILL require us to break the bank, but he's #10 in RPM.  He's got a real shot of being in the next wave of elite players.  I'd love to see him in green.

[dreamgreen]

This is exactly the year to spend while we have cap space and most teams don't.  The following couple off-seasons everyone will have cap space.  However we should not be focused on the older free agents like Gasol and Aldridge.  I'd be going after the younger MAX/near-MAX players (e.g. Butler, Love, Harris, Middleton, Monroe).

TP.

[mmmmm]

tazzmaniac is exactly right.  Assuming you can get one or two good players who are deserving of the money to agree to come here, it is MUCH better to sign them now, than to wait.

Consider players like Middleton, Harris or Monroe.  All these guys are under 7 years service and all are rumored to be looking for max or near-max money.

Well, for that category of player, the max this year is 15.3M.

But next year, the price for the same category of player jumps up to 20.4M.

That means, if you don't tie up two such players this summer, you will spend more than 10M MORE next year to sign two guys of the same category.

If Danny signs a couple of young sub-7 max players this year, it will cost at most 31M, and that means, given his other contracts, that he will have around 34-39M available NEXT year to sign a _third_ max contract player and still have enough to fill out the roster to make a very, very strong team.

If he doesn't sign such a couple of players this year, then the amount of money he would have available to add that third guy AND fill out various holes in the roster will drop to just 24-29M.  That may not be enough to get that third guy.

If we can't convince a worthy pair of players to come here, then sure - don't spend the money.

But goal number one should be to convince those players to come and, indeed, spend the money.

[walker834]

tazzmaniac is exactly right.  Assuming you can get one or two good players who are deserving of the money to agree to come here, it is MUCH better to sign them now, than to wait.

Consider players like Middleton, Harris or Monroe.  All these guys are under 7 years service and all are rumored to be looking for max or near-max money.

Well, for that category of player, the max this year is 15.3M.

But next year, the price for the same category of player jumps up to 20.4M.

That means, if you don't tie up two such players this summer, you will spend more than 10M MORE next year to sign two guys of the same category.

If Danny signs a couple of young sub-7 max players this year, it will cost at most 31M, and that means, given his other contracts, that he will have around 34-39M available NEXT year to sign a _third_ max contract player and still have enough to fill out the roster to make a very, very strong team.

If he doesn't sign such a couple of players this year, then the amount of money he would have available to add that third guy AND fill out various holes in the roster will drop to just 24-29M.  That may not be enough to get that third guy.

If we can't convince a worthy pair of players to come here, then sure - don't spend the money.

But goal number one should be to convince those players to come and, indeed, spend the money.

Great post. TP.  I agree completely.  I think we want to be a better version of the hawks ultimately and we have money to spend.  Getting a couple guys this offseason is huge.

[tazzmaniac]

tazzmaniac is exactly right.  Assuming you can get one or two good players who are deserving of the money to agree to come here, it is MUCH better to sign them now, than to wait.

Consider players like Middleton, Harris or Monroe.  All these guys are under 7 years service and all are rumored to be looking for max or near-max money.

Well, for that category of player, the max this year is 15.3M.

But next year, the price for the same category of player jumps up to 20.4M.

That means, if you don't tie up two such players this summer, you will spend more than 10M MORE next year to sign two guys of the same category.

If Danny signs a couple of young sub-7 max players this year, it will cost at most 31M, and that means, given his other contracts, that he will have around 34-39M available NEXT year to sign a _third_ max contract player and still have enough to fill out the roster to make a very, very strong team.

If he doesn't sign such a couple of players this year, then the amount of money he would have available to add that third guy AND fill out various holes in the roster will drop to just 24-29M.  That may not be enough to get that third guy.

If we can't convince a worthy pair of players to come here, then sure - don't spend the money.

But goal number one should be to convince those players to come and, indeed, spend the money.

Getting a couple good players this year should make it easier to get the 3rd guy next year.  Trying to attract all 3 players next year is going to be next to impossible.  Those players could also be valuable trade assets.  Middleton, Harris and Monroe can each play multiple positions so that would give us more flexibility in who the 3rd guy is.