Tobias Harris started following Marcus Smart on Twitter, C's players follow him

[max215]

You might find it interesting to read Stephen Shea's take:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

Also, regardless of the fact that he's "already played 4 seasons in the NBA", he's only 22.   I think it would be a difficult assertion to support that he isn't likely to continue to improve his game over the next 5-10 years.   Most NBA players don't reach peak athleticism until their late 20s and most continue to improve skills well into their  30s.

I've seen the said article, and it's not reliable by any means.  There are two major flaws with the logic in that piece:

1 - Cherry picking of stats
It uses a unique set of statistical categories which are cherry-picked to try to push the writer's obvious opinion that Harris is a very special player. 

This is VERY easy to do for just about any player in the league.

For example, how many players in the NBA this season averaged at least 15 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists while shooting 49% from the field?  Only three - Anthony Davis, Greg Monroe and Pau Gasol.   

So this must make Monroe an incredible player - a generational talent.  I mean, pout of 475 active NBA players there are only two other guys who can do what Monroe does, and that's despite a far reduced offensive role (he's the only guy of the three who averaged < 14 FGA to reach those 15 PPG)

Of course we all know that's not true. 

I could really easily do the same with Nerlens Noel since he's the only player in the NBA ranking top 10 in both steals and blocks, so BAM - instantly superstar in the making right there.  He must be really special because that only took TWO statistical categories.

Monroe is a very nice player, but he's not at that special a level just yet.  Likewise Noel has some great talent, but is a completely one dimensional player.  The above just goes to show how you can make almost ANY decent player in the NBA look really unique/special by carefully cherry picking a few select stats.

I'm sure you get my point!

2- Completley ignored player history
The entire argument of this article is based on Harris' ability to rebound and shoot threes at a very good rate. 

It completely ignores the fact that over his four NBA seasons, Harris has only shot above 32% from three once - which happens to be this season that just ended.

* In 2011-12 he shot 26.1%
* In 2012-13 he shot 31.5%
* In 2013-14 he shot 25.4%
* In 2014-15 he shot 36.4%

How on earth can you POSSIBLY argue that a guy who shot 36.4% (which is a good, but hardly elite number) in one season out of four is any form of conclusive evidence that this guy is legitimately a high quality NBA shooter?

Harris has a career three point percentage of 32.1%, so if you go off their careers so far then Avery Bradley (36%), Marcus Smart (33.5%) and Kelly Olynyk (34.9%) are all significantly better three point shooters.

Oh but "he's only 22 years old" they say. But "look how he's improved this year!" they say. 

Well Every Bradley shot 31.7% from three when he was 22 years old in 2012-13 and then went on to shoot 39.5% from three as a 23 year old in 2013-14.  He showed a massive improvement as a shooter in 2013-14 as a 23 year old going in to a contract year - sound familiar?

Again, a nicely written article that does a good job of pushing the writers theories, but sadly it has all of about zero substance to it.

All those Boston fans who love to say Bradley has no upside last year and didn't deserve his $8M or so contract (because he's already been in the NBA 4 seasons and hasn't shown any improvement) have absolutely rational reason to think any different about Harris.  He has had a very similar career progression to Bradley up to his fourth season.

 

You don't have a clue

You know what, I am seriously in awe at the power of your argument.  So much so that I will concede defeat and openly admit that you are right - I am convinced. 

Actually I just had a bit of a think about it and despite your highly compelling argument, I think I'm still a little skeptical.  For now i'll just stick to the conclusion that the FACTS project.

Been wanting Harris since last year.  Any c's fan that doesn't  has no clue about the team needs.

Why? 

Please do tell me what Harris offers that this team desperately need.

Three point shooting at the wing position? I agree, we do need that. 

Believe me though, there are a LOT of guys out there who are much more proven as three point shooters than Harris..as he hasn't really proven that much over the one single statistical single season of his life in which he actually shot a percentage that even remotely above mediocre.

Defense?  Nope, he's one of the bottom 10% of so among all Small Forwards.

Outright scoring?  Nope, he scored at a similar rate to Bradley and Jeff Green, and they haven't gotten us that far.

Ok he's a solid rebounder at the SF spot, but are you really going to use THAT as justification for throwing this guy a $13M - $15M contract???

While I do like Harris, this was a well-researched and well presented post, TP.

[chambers]

Did you really just say that Smart at 33.5% is a "significantly" better 3pt. shooter than Harris at 32.1%?

That is what they call a credibility killer.

When you take in to account the fact that:

1) Smart's biggest criticism going in to the draft was that he 'couldn't shoot'
2) It was Smart's rookie year
3) Smart took almost twice as many attempts

Then yes, that fact that he STILL shot a higher percentage than Harris is very significant.

Tobias Harris shot 36.5% from 3 last year over 239 attempts (3.5 attempts per game) @ 22 years old.

Smart shot 33.5% from 4.1 attempts per game/ 272 total @ 20/21 years old.

Both significantly improved but Harris was better by a small margin.

Just an FYI

[I told you so]

In an attempt to insert a little levity into this conversation, I offer up this choice tidbit about Harris from the Orlando Pinstriped Post ...
 

Fans who say we had him and have stunk so what is the point. Please take into consideration the following:

1. Jacque Vaughn was our coach.
2. He has been injured in early parts of the season the last two seasons.
3. Jacque. Vaughn. Was. Our. Coach.
4. He has played with two rookie PG in back to back seasons(one had never been a PG, and the other can’t shoot)
5. He was coached by none other than Jacque Vaughn.
6. He still put up efficient numbers.
7. And lastly….he was coached by Jacque Freaking Vaughn.

In other words, any development Harris has achieved to this point in his NBA career has been in spite of the fact that he spent the past two seasons playing in one of the league's worst coaching systems.  Harris wasn't the only Hornet playing poor defense, it was pretty much a team effort (or lack thereof).  I'm pretty sure Harris' defense would pick up considerably in Coach Brad's system.

[mmmmm]

I agree I'd rather have Butler or Leonard. Middleton and Harris are close, Middleton would be cheaper, but unless we move a guard, not sure if he would be a good three, were Harris could play some four.

Middleton and Harris really aren't close. 

Middleton is already one of the best shooters and defenders at his position in the NBA.

Harris is (so far) an entirely average shooter and well below average defender.

Middleton is a far, far superior option right now...and likely cheaper as well.

Middleton is a superior shooter and in some ways a better defender, but he has no interior scoring skills.   He does not drive to the hoop, he does not post up and he does not get to the FT line.  He took less than 18% of his shots within 3 feet of the rim and less than 29% within 10 feet.  He is a textbook 3-and-D player.  A very, very good 3-and-D player, but that's all he is.  And on D, he is not so great at defending on the block.

Harris is a much more versatile scorer, with both perimeter shooting and various skills at creating points from different points of the floor.  He's an excellent post-up player and can get to the FT line.   He took 29% of his shots within 3 feet and finished them at a ridiculous 68.7% efficiency.  Even though he's not quite the elite 3PT% shooter, his more versatile scoring repertoire has him as almost as efficient overall on scoring attempts, posting a 55.1% TS% compared to Middleton's 56.3%.  That difference is basically in the noise.

Consider for a moment that both have raised their TS% each of the last 3 years, demonstrating steady improvement in efficiency as they've gained experience.  But Harris is a year younger.

Harris is not an elite defender, but he is not bad at all.  He can adequately front most SFs and all but the faster SGs on the perimeter.  Plus, unlike Middleton, he can at least hold the block reasonably against bigger SFs like the Carmelo's, the Paul George's and Lebron's of the Eastern conference.  And he's a much better rebounder, which is a critical part of defense.   And, again, he is very young.  Defense is one of the skills that can be coached and improved with experience and a good system.

I think your assertion that Middleton is a "far, far superior option" is very questionable.   He's also looking more and more likely to remain in Milwaukee.

[crimson_stallion]

Did you really just say that Smart at 33.5% is a "significantly" better 3pt. shooter than Harris at 32.1%?

That is what they call a credibility killer.

When you take in to account the fact that:

1) Smart's biggest criticism going in to the draft was that he 'couldn't shoot'
2) It was Smart's rookie year
3) Smart took almost twice as many attempts

Then yes, that fact that he STILL shot a higher percentage than Harris is very significant.

Tobias Harris shot 36.5% from 3 last year over 239 attempts (3.5 attempts per game) @ 22 years old.

Smart shot 33.5% from 4.1 attempts per game/ 272 total @ 20/21 years old.

Both significantly improved but Harris was better by a small margin.

Just an FYI

Hardly comparable.

You're comparing a 20 year old guy playing his first season in the NBA, to a 22 year old guy who has spent 4 seasons playing in the NBA.

Think about how much changes when you go from college to the NBA.  Think about the change in physicality of the opponents, the style of play, adjusting to team culture, the struggle of trying to earn minutes, the pressure of trying to prove yourself against guys you hope to one day become, the challenge of learning to score and defend against professional men (compared to amateur kids). 

Then on top of that consider all of the extra resources you have available to you once you get in to the NBA - the gym resources, professional trainers, the coaching, the teammates you learn from, the experience you gain.

Harris had all of the latter for four years and would have been well and truly settled in to his role as an NBA player by the start of last season...while Smart would have started the season feeling like a high school kid who in his first day at college.

Look at Harris when he was 20 years old (same age as Smart) after he had already spent a full season in the NBA.  He shot 31.5% from three that year on 3 attempts per 36 minutes. 

That's tangibly below Smart's 33.5% on 5.4 attempts Per 36 minutes, in his rookie year, at the same age.

In fact, the easiest way to reflect who was above here (in combined percentage vs attempts) is to look at the actual amount of 3 pointers made, where Smart averaged 1.8 3PT Per 36 Minutes, while Harris averaged 0.9 3PT made per 36 Minutes.

In fact Smart made more threes this year (1.4 Per Game) than Harris did (1.3 Per Game) despite the fact:

1) Harris is in his 4th season and two years older
2) Harris played far more minutes (34.8 MPG vs 27 MPG)
3) Harris was a top 2 scoring option on his team (while Smart was not a scoring option at all)

From what we've seen so far, it's pretty hard to argue that Harris is a better three point shooter than Smart overall.

I think the numbers you posted would be more justifiable if not for the fact that played about 29% more minutes than Smart did.  If smart played as many minutes as Harris and continued to shoot at the same rate, he'd have been up around 350 3PA for the season.  Big difference to 239 attempts by Harris.

[chambers]

If he can be signed for Jeff green money then I'm fine with it given his age.

Eg at 14 milion he'll take up 15.7% in 16/17 and 12.96% in 17/18

Jeff Green at 9.2 million was 15.87% of the cap in 2010-11

[BudweiserCeltic]

I agree I'd rather have Butler or Leonard. Middleton and Harris are close, Middleton would be cheaper, but unless we move a guard, not sure if he would be a good three, were Harris could play some four.

Middleton and Harris really aren't close. 

Middleton is already one of the best shooters and defenders at his position in the NBA.

Harris is (so far) an entirely average shooter and well below average defender.

Middleton is a far, far superior option right now...and likely cheaper as well.

Middleton is a superior shooter and in some ways a better defender, but he has no interior scoring skills.   He does not drive to the hoop, he does not post up and he does not get to the FT line.  He took less than 18% of his shots within 3 feet of the rim and less than 29% within 10 feet.  He is a textbook 3-and-D player.  A very, very good 3-and-D player, but that's all he is.  And on D, he is not so great at defending on the block.

Harris is a much more versatile scorer, with both perimeter shooting and various skills at creating points from different points of the floor.  He's an excellent post-up player and can get to the FT line.   He took 29% of his shots within 3 feet and finished them at a ridiculous 68.7% efficiency.  Even though he's not quite the elite 3PT% shooter, his more versatile scoring repertoire has him as almost as efficient overall on scoring attempts, posting a 55.1% TS% compared to Middleton's 56.3%.  That difference is basically in the noise.

Consider for a moment that both have raised their TS% each of the last 3 years, demonstrating steady improvement in efficiency as they've gained experience.  But Harris is a year younger.

Harris is not an elite defender, but he is not bad at all.  He can adequately front most SFs and all but the faster SGs on the perimeter.  Plus, unlike Middleton, he can at least hold the block reasonably against bigger SFs like the Carmelo's, the Paul George's and Lebron's of the Eastern conference.  And he's a much better rebounder, which is a critical part of defense.   And, again, he is very young.  Defense is one of the skills that can be coached and improved with experience and a good system.

I think your assertion that Middleton is a "far, far superior option" is very questionable.   He's also looking more and more likely to remain in Milwaukee.

Or... we can just S&T for both (Middleton and Harris), and then sign Monroe.

Bradley, Wallace, Turner, Olynyk, (Other/Young?) + Picks would need to be involved in the S&T or dumping of salaries as the case may be.

That would be my Plan A. A bit concerned of the value of assets being moved, but I think this at the same time gives us a very solid foundation or a good start to move forward with a good combination of shooting/scoring, ballhandling, and defense.

[chambers]

Did you really just say that Smart at 33.5% is a "significantly" better 3pt. shooter than Harris at 32.1%?

That is what they call a credibility killer.

When you take in to account the fact that:

1) Smart's biggest criticism going in to the draft was that he 'couldn't shoot'
2) It was Smart's rookie year
3) Smart took almost twice as many attempts

Then yes, that fact that he STILL shot a higher percentage than Harris is very significant.

Tobias Harris shot 36.5% from 3 last year over 239 attempts (3.5 attempts per game) @ 22 years old.

Smart shot 33.5% from 4.1 attempts per game/ 272 total @ 20/21 years old.

Both significantly improved but Harris was better by a small margin.

Just an FYI

Hardly comparable.

You're comparing a 20 year old guy playing his first season in the NBA, to a 22 year old guy who has spent 4 seasons playing in the NBA.

Think about how much changes when you go from college to the NBA.  Think about the change in physicality of the opponents, the style of play, adjusting to team culture, the struggle of trying to earn minutes, the pressure of trying to prove yourself against guys you hope to one day become, the challenge of learning to score and defend against professional men (compared to amateur kids). 

Then on top of that consider all of the extra resources you have available to you once you get in to the NBA - the gym resources, professional trainers, the coaching, the teammates you learn from, the experience you gain.

Harris had all of the latter for four years and would have been well and truly settled in to his role as an NBA player by the start of last season...while Smart would have started the season feeling like a high school kid who in his first day at college.

Look at Harris when he was 20 years old (same age as Smart) after he had already spent a full season in the NBA.  He shot 31.5% from three that year on 3 attempts per 36 minutes. 

That's tangibly below Smart's 33.5% on 5.4 attempts Per 36 minutes, in his rookie year, at the same age.

In fact, the easiest way to reflect who was above here (in combined percentage vs attempts) is to look at the actual amount of 3 pointers made, where Smart averaged 1.8 3PT Per 36 Minutes, while Harris averaged 0.9 3PT made per 36 Minutes.

In fact Smart made more threes this year (1.4 Per Game) than Harris did (1.3 Per Game) despite the fact:

1) Harris is in his 4th season and two years older
2) Harris played far more minutes (34.8 MPG vs 27 MPG)
3) Harris was a top 2 scoring option on his team (while Smart was not a scoring option at all)

From what we've seen so far, it's pretty hard to argue that Harris is a better three point shooter than Smart overall.

I think the numbers you posted would be more justifiable if not for the fact that played about 29% more minutes than Smart did.  If smart played as many minutes as Harris and continued to shoot at the same rate, he'd have been up around 350 3PA for the season.  Big difference to 239 attempts by Harris.

Lol so Harris has his best three point shooting season with almost twice as many attempts as any previous season and shoots 36.5% being over 5% better than his career average, (which is better than Smart) and you're trying to say that he's not currently a better shooter than Smart?
Why couldn't Harris continue to get better at 3 point shooting at age 22? He's younger than Sully, Olynyk and Avery Bradley.
He'd be the best three point shooter in our main rotation if he signed tomorrow.
He shot better from 3 than Bradley, Thomas, Smart, Olynyk and only Jonas had a higher %.

Anyway I'm not a massive Harris fan and like you, I like Middleton much more, but he's got some value at 22 years old taking up 15% of the cap. Hell if we can S&T for him into the Rondo TE we are laughing right?

[indeedproceed]

Harris is also a better scorer than anyone on our roster. Due to Orlando''s spacing issues Harris didn't get to post up very often. He can catch and shoot, he can drive, he can post up. Hell he can probably run the pick and roll with Olynyk

[Rida]

I think the massive consensus here is that no one is a huge Harris fan.

But like it or lump it, he seems to be our most realistic FA option.

This year he's a third tier FA after . However I do think he's our best chance at an FA along with Wes Matthews and possibly Milsapp

Monroe will go NY, Aldridge will go to San Antonio- if that happens we need to get in on Splitter.

[crimson_stallion]

I agree I'd rather have Butler or Leonard. Middleton and Harris are close, Middleton would be cheaper, but unless we move a guard, not sure if he would be a good three, were Harris could play some four.

Middleton and Harris really aren't close. 

Middleton is already one of the best shooters and defenders at his position in the NBA.

Harris is (so far) an entirely average shooter and well below average defender.

Middleton is a far, far superior option right now...and likely cheaper as well.

Middleton is a superior shooter and in some ways a better defender, but he has no interior scoring skills.   He does not drive to the hoop, he does not post up and he does not get to the FT line.  He took less than 18% of his shots within 3 feet of the rim and less than 29% within 10 feet.  He is a textbook 3-and-D player.  A very, very good 3-and-D player, but that's all he is.  And on D, he is not so great at defending on the block.

Harris is a much more versatile scorer, with both perimeter shooting and various skills at creating points from different points of the floor.  He's an excellent post-up player and can get to the FT line.   He took 29% of his shots within 3 feet and finished them at a ridiculous 68.7% efficiency.  Even though he's not quite the elite 3PT% shooter, his more versatile scoring repertoire has him as almost as efficient overall on scoring attempts, posting a 55.1% TS% compared to Middleton's 56.3%.  That difference is basically in the noise.

Consider for a moment that both have raised their TS% each of the last 3 years, demonstrating steady improvement in efficiency as they've gained experience.  But Harris is a year younger.

Harris is not an elite defender, but he is not bad at all.  He can adequately front most SFs and all but the faster SGs on the perimeter.  Plus, unlike Middleton, he can at least hold the block reasonably against bigger SFs like the Carmelo's, the Paul George's and Lebron's of the Eastern conference.  And he's a much better rebounder, which is a critical part of defense.   And, again, he is very young.  Defense is one of the skills that can be coached and improved with experience and a good system.

I think your assertion that Middleton is a "far, far superior option" is very questionable.   He's also looking more and more likely to remain in Milwaukee.

To say Harris is "not bad at all" defensively may seem true subjectively, but the objective raw hard facts tell a very different story.

The variation between Middleton's Defensive RPM (+4.10, 8th in the NBA among all positions) and Harris' Defensive RPM (-2.2, 408th in the NBA) really is so drastic that it's completely impossible to ignore.  Middleton ranked in the top 1% of NBA players, while Harris ranked in the bottom 15%. 

Whether you go off 'eye test' or stats is up to the individual, but since it's completely impossible to compare subjective opinions, I tend to prefer the use of stats for comparison purposes when it comes to things like defense (that are hard to quantify with simple stats).

If somebody else can quote me any other defensive stats that tell a different story about Harris (opponent per, opponent shooting percentage, etc) then I'm perfectly happy to look at it with an open mind and consider those arguments, but until somebody can present some type of argument other than "you can just tell by watching him" I won't be convinced.

Also Middleton is more than just 3+D.  Only 31% of Middleton's shots were three point attempts - that means 69% of his field goal attempts were not threes.  The majority of his offense actually came from midrange (40% of attempts from 10 feet to the three point line) and he shot some of the best percentages in the league on those shots.

I will concede that he's not much of a shot creator and is really more of a spot up guy (Harris is better in that regard) but then Harris' superior ability to create offense hasn't really helped him much since their outright scoring numbers (16 PTS Per 36 for Middleton, 17 PTS Per 36 for Harris) are ultimately the same.

Another concern is that Harris (as you said) gets a good chunk of his offense inside three feet, where he shoots a very high percentage - yet his overall FG% was still no higher than Middleton (who is primarily a spot up shooter).

Also even though Harris does (as you say) get to the line at a far higher rate than Middleton does (34% vs 19% last year) this difference hasn't led to as much of an advantage as you'd think.  Harris averaged 2.9 FTM Per 36 Minutes,  while Middleton averaged 2 FTM Per 36 Minutes.     This probably has a lot to do with Middleton shooting a significantly higher percentage 86% vs 78%) from three.

Likewise the free throw disparity hasn't given Harris an advantage in terms of scoring efficiency, since they both averaged 1.22 Points Per FGA.

Yet if the game is on the line, and I need somebody to take the last shot, I'm going have more trust in Middleton (who shot a higher percentage from almost everywhere on the court, and from the foul line) then I would on Harris.

Once you factoring in Middleton's better passing skills, I'd say that two two guys are pretty close in terms of their overall offensive contribution, but I just feel like the one of out biggest needs right now (along with a rim protector) is a lights-out shooter that absolutely demands respect from the defense. Ray Allen offered us that dimension before, and it completely changed the way teams defended us.  It's a similar deal with Atlanta, where the addition of Kyle Korver (and what he does for attracting defensive attention) has completely changed the way defenses play the Hawks.

I feel like if we can't get a legit star (which neither Middleton nor Harris projects to ever be) then the only other way for us to become really dangerous is if we fill out needs - those being a lights-out shooter at the SG/SF spot, and a high level rim protector.

While Harris is a capable three point shooter these days (much like Bradley and Olynyk are for us) he's not enough of a threat from three to the point where he forces teams to specifically game-plan around him.   

Great shooters (Nash, Curry, Ray, Reggie) scare the Beejesus out of opposing teams - every second of every minute on the court you need to know where they are. 

On the other hand 'casual' scorers (as I like to call them) like Jeff Green, Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris are usually more of a defensive afterthought.  You know they are there, but you don't really worry THAT much about them.

Again each to their own, but IMHO Middleton would improve this team a LOT more than Harris would.

That said none of us know if we have a shot at Middleton at all, so that's neither here nor there.  But if we did, my money would be 100% on Middleton.

[biggs]

I think adding Harris to this team would be exactly what we need because we have a roster filled with guys who can score.  We added more this draft.  Add Harris to that we are a dangerous offensive team. we dont need that one guy who can score. My best comparison would be the celtics of the 50's and 70's.  They didnt have that one guy. Having an assortment and a guy who can score a bit better with Isiaiah and Harris that's a dangerous team.

This is even different than the pierce, ray allen kg trio. It's a different team. But Harris could be a really nice x-factor to have.

Sry if i'm interjecting comments here but  I'm seeing it man lol.  I'm not on anything either.  I am onto something though and people should take notice.

"A roster filled with guys that can score." What are you smoking bro? Pass that #*@&! Did you even watch the playoffs? Nobody could score, and Brad and Danny both said scoring was one of our main areas of need.

Not ragging on you, just having some fun, but, to say this team is filled with scorers? I don't see it.

[crimson_stallion]

Lol so Harris has his best three point shooting season with almost twice as many attempts as any previous season and shoots 36.5% being over 5% better than his career average, (which is better than Smart) and you're trying to say that he's not currently a better shooter than Smart?

It's debatable. 

Smart shot only 33.5% from three, but he did so on FAR more attempts, and did so a rookie.  Smart's upside as a shooter is far higher at this point in time than that of Harris. 

That's because Harris shot who shot only around 25% from three his rookie year and took 4 years of experience before he got to a point where he could hit the three at a rate comparable to where Smart already is now.

Also Harris' percentage may have been higher, but Smart scored just as many points off threes as Harris did, dispite playing far fewer minutes. 

Why couldn't Harris continue to get better at 3 point shooting at age 22? He's younger than Sully, Olynyk and Avery Bradley.

He'd be the best three point shooter in our main rotation if he signed tomorrow.
He shot better from 3 than Bradley, Thomas, Smart, Olynyk and only Jonas had a higher %.

By the time Bradley finished his fourth season in the NBA, he had already put up great shooting seasons - he shot 40.7% in 2011/12 and 39.5% in 2013/14. 

Now this season he also shot a quite respectable 35% despite his attempts reaching an
all time high of 5.2 3PA Per 36 Minutes - almost double 50% more attempts than what Harris took this year.

That's three seasons out of the past four in which Bradley has shot over 35% from three.  At this point you can no longer argue that it's a fluke - the kid has proven that he can shoot.

Harris has shot over 32% once over the course of four years.  It could very well be a fluke year, and he may follow it up next year by shooting 32% again.  It's all question marks - nobody knows.  His three point shooting ability is not yet something you can depend on with any degree of certainty.  If he finishes next season shooting > 35% from three again, then by all means I consider his outside shot worthy of respect. 

I also disagree that he'd be out best three point shooter.  Bradley and Thomas have shot 36% from three over their careers and Olynyk has shot 35%.  Every one of those guys has put together at least two complete NBA seasons shooting respectable numbers from three.

But, Harris can do that (and prove that this season was more than just a fluke) he remains unproven in my books. 

Anyway I'm not a massive Harris fan and like you, I like Middleton much more, but he's got some value at 22 years old taking up 15% of the cap. Hell if we can S&T for him into the Rondo TE we are laughing right?

Remember that the Rondo TPE counts against the salary cap until it is used and/or renounced, so really trading for Harris using the TPE is no different to renouncing the TPE and signing him outright. 

The only difference is that if did it as a trade, then there is absolutely zero incentive for Orlando to do that unless they are getting something in return.  If all we're giving them is a TPE, then they may as well just let him walk and let the cap space clear itself. 

Unless they are getting at least one pick in return, there's not really any incentive them to trade him to us - and there's no incentive for us to give up a pick if we can just renounce the TPE and sign him outright.

The only way a trade really makes any sense for us is if we can convince them to take Wallace's contract (along with a couple of picks for payment) and to send us Harris.  This works for us because we can essentially obtain Harris without sacrificing significant cap space.  Works for them because they can get a couple of draft picks in return for a player who they would otherwise get nothing for...and Wallace's contact expires next year anyway.

If we could work something like that out, then I'd be keen on hearing it. 

[mmmmm]

I agree I'd rather have Butler or Leonard. Middleton and Harris are close, Middleton would be cheaper, but unless we move a guard, not sure if he would be a good three, were Harris could play some four.

Middleton and Harris really aren't close. 

Middleton is already one of the best shooters and defenders at his position in the NBA.

Harris is (so far) an entirely average shooter and well below average defender.

Middleton is a far, far superior option right now...and likely cheaper as well.

Middleton is a superior shooter and in some ways a better defender, but he has no interior scoring skills.   He does not drive to the hoop, he does not post up and he does not get to the FT line.  He took less than 18% of his shots within 3 feet of the rim and less than 29% within 10 feet.  He is a textbook 3-and-D player.  A very, very good 3-and-D player, but that's all he is.  And on D, he is not so great at defending on the block.

Harris is a much more versatile scorer, with both perimeter shooting and various skills at creating points from different points of the floor.  He's an excellent post-up player and can get to the FT line.   He took 29% of his shots within 3 feet and finished them at a ridiculous 68.7% efficiency.  Even though he's not quite the elite 3PT% shooter, his more versatile scoring repertoire has him as almost as efficient overall on scoring attempts, posting a 55.1% TS% compared to Middleton's 56.3%.  That difference is basically in the noise.

Consider for a moment that both have raised their TS% each of the last 3 years, demonstrating steady improvement in efficiency as they've gained experience.  But Harris is a year younger.

Harris is not an elite defender, but he is not bad at all.  He can adequately front most SFs and all but the faster SGs on the perimeter.  Plus, unlike Middleton, he can at least hold the block reasonably against bigger SFs like the Carmelo's, the Paul George's and Lebron's of the Eastern conference.  And he's a much better rebounder, which is a critical part of defense.   And, again, he is very young.  Defense is one of the skills that can be coached and improved with experience and a good system.

I think your assertion that Middleton is a "far, far superior option" is very questionable.   He's also looking more and more likely to remain in Milwaukee.

To say Harris is "not bad at all" defensively may seem true subjectively, but the objective raw hard facts tell a very different story.

The variation between Middleton's Defensive RPM (+4.10, 8th in the NBA among all positions) and Harris' Defensive RPM (-2.2, 408th in the NBA) really is so drastic that it's completely impossible to ignore.  Middleton ranked in the top 1% of NBA players, while Harris ranked in the bottom 15%. 

RPM isn't the magic wonder-stat that you seem to think it is.  Contrary to the purpose, it very clearly does not wash out team and usage effects and it is positionally sensitive (means and distributions for each of the positions are very different).  There are several good papers you can find with google that discuss it's shortcomings.  So using it so casually for comparisons is misleading.  There is also the problem of ranking relevance:  The huge number of players lumped in the middle exaggerates the span in ranking between people on the opposite ends of the distribution, beyond what the real relevance of the difference is.  Another way of saying that is, the actual real world (in game, per-possession) significance of the RPM score for the 100th player is not meaningfully different from the 200th player, yet they are separated by 99 players ranked in between them.

Like all stats, RPM can be useful.  But you have to take it with a healthy grain of salt.

If somebody else can quote me any other defensive stats that tell a different story about Harris (opponent per, opponent shooting percentage, etc) then I'm perfectly happy to look at it with an open mind and consider those arguments, but until somebody can present some type of argument other than "you can just tell by watching him" I won't be convinced.

There are some things that you do have to note by observation in order to provide context, else the numbers are meaningless.  The Magic were, clearly, measurably and to the naked eye, a horrible defensive team that was horribly coached.   I would be very leary of drawing too firm of a negative conclusion about the defensive chops of any individual based on stats.  The stats for the team are overwhelmingly negative.  Was Harris part of the problem?  Possibly.  The problem is, he was present on all their most-used 5-man lineups.  Both the few that posted relatively good defensive numbers and also those that posted bad defensive numbers.   Was the latter his fault?  Or the fault of some other players that were only on those lineups?  But conversely, were the former to his credit?  Or the credit only to the other players that were only on those lineups?  All that suggests that Harris was probably not moving the needle far up OR down on defense.

Subjective observation -- the eye test -- would tend to correlate with that.  He had his strong points on defense (rebounding, size) and his weak points (lateral quicks) and overall was sort of average.   The question is left begging:  Would his defensive performance have been better on a better defensive team?  That has held true for many players in the past, so it's a reasonable question to ask.

Also Middleton is more than just 3+D.  Only 31% of Middleton's shots were three point attempts - that means 69% of his field goal attempts were not threes.  The majority of his offense actually came from midrange (40% of attempts from 10 feet to the three point line) and he shot some of the best percentages in the league on those shots.

To suggest that he's "More than" just a 3PT shooter by noting that 40% of his shots came from the most inefficient range, mid-range jump shots, is not really selling his offensive versatility.  All we've established is that he's overwhelmingly a spot-up jump shooter on offense.  At least he's decent at all those shots.  But he does little to help create points in the offense.

Another concern is that Harris (as you said) gets a good chunk of his offense inside three feet, where he shoots a very high percentage - yet his overall FG% was still no higher than Middleton (who is primarily a spot up shooter).

That is dubious logic.  Aside from the dubious usage of FG% as a measure of efficiency, the obvious counter statement is:  Another concern is that even though Middleton shot a fantastic 39.8% from 3PT range, his overall scoring efficiency (TS%) wasn't really any better than Harris.

FG% misses the extra point value of 3PT shots and it also misses the value of FT shots earned from drawn fouls.   Harris takes far more shots in contested zones.  the 3-10 foot range is the most contested area of the court.  That will tend to decrease FG%, though it can boost FTr (free-throw rate) for players that can draw fouls and thus show payoff in TS%.

The net net of things on offense is that both players were roughly equally efficient (TS% of 55-56%) at scoring, but Harris was much, much more versatile in his scoring.  This gives the offense more ways to exploit opposing match-ups.  He also created more pressure on the defense in terms of drawn fouls.  It's also notable that even though he played far more often in the 'traffic' areas of the court, his TO rates were no higher than Middleton's.

When you add in the fact of his Harris' superior rebounding, I again, see no basis for your assertion, to which I originally responded, that Middleton was a "far, far superior option".

I can accept that you may have a personal preference for Middleton because he provides a particular flavor of value -- 3PT shooting -- at a high level that you think is important.

But there are also aspects of his game which clearly fall way behind things that Harris can do extremely well.

I don't like to get into these long, marathon comment wars.  My only point here has been to contest the idea that the difference in value between the two is anywhere near as great as you asserted.  I think that is pretty clearly established that it is not.  They are probably very close in value and I can see arguments giving the edge to either, depending on what one valued more in a player.

You assert that the fact that the Cs were so woeful at 3PT (4th worst 3PT%) shooting makes Middleton more attractive.  Well, one can easily counter with the fact that the Cs were even more woeful at getting to the FT line (3rd worst FTrate) and also well below average in rebounding makes Harris more attractive.

[mmmmm]

Smart shot only 33.5% from three, but he did so on FAR more attempts, and did so a rookie.  Smart's upside as a shooter is far higher at this point in time than that of Harris. 

That's because Harris shot who shot only around 25% from three his rookie year and took 4 years of experience before he got to a point where he could hit the three at a rate comparable to where Smart already is now.

Keep in mind that Harris was only 18 when he came into the league and was learning how to shoot the 3 against the NBA competition and from the NBA arc.  And it wasn't really even a major part of his game until recently.  He only attempted 23 3PTA his rookie season.  He never took more than 126 3PTA in a season until this last year, when he took 239.

Meanwhile, Smart was chucking up a zillion 3s in his two years in college from the NCAA arc and only hitting them for 29%.  He took 295 3PTAs in college.  He's already taken another 272 in the NBA.

So, if anything, Harris has gotten a later start at using the 3PT shot in his repertoire and if anything, should have more potential to improve in it.

Anyway I'm not a massive Harris fan and like you, I like Middleton much more, but he's got some value at 22 years old taking up 15% of the cap. Hell if we can S&T for him into the Rondo TE we are laughing right?

Remember that the Rondo TPE counts against the salary cap until it is used and/or renounced, so really trading for Harris using the TPE is no different to renouncing the TPE and signing him outright. 

The only difference is that if did it as a trade, then there is absolutely zero incentive for Orlando to do that unless they are getting something in return.  If all we're giving them is a TPE, then they may as well just let him walk and let the cap space clear itself. 

That is not true.   Renouncing the Rondo TPE doesn't allow you to sign him outright unless you also renounce your other TPEs and sufficient FA rights to get far enough under the cap in order to fit his salary.

Conversely, if you can sign him to 12.9M or lower, you can acquire him via a sign & trade and absorb his incoming salary with the TPE, and not have to renounce anything.

You don't "give" someone a TPE.  A TPE is created when a team that is over the cap trades out more salary than it brings back in.  This is considered a 'non-simultaneous trade' and creates a Traded Player Exception that allows you to later 'complete' the trade by bringing in salary up to but not exceeding the value of the TPE.

It is true that some compensation would be needed to provide Orlando incentive to facilitate a sign & trade.  But that is why Danny has accumulated a zillion small-to-medium assets.