Author Topic: Tobias Harris started following Marcus Smart on Twitter, C's players follow him  (Read 31077 times)

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Offline tarheelsxxiii

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We need to get this guy.  We can analyze it to death but there are very few small forwards in the nba with his ability that actually may be available.   Otherwise we are looking at drafting someone with the nets pick..

WE have cap space.  It's either this or wait and draft someone when those picks can be used in other ways.

Agree, just like comparing stats because grad school turned me into a nerd :P
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Offline Evantime34

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It sounds like the Magic are willing to let him go if he signs a near max or max offer with someone:

Because they aren't clinically insane.

I really, really hope that Tobias Harris on a Max (or near max) contract isn't the best we can do this off-season.

He would potentially cost us 4x - 5x more than what we're paying turner, and there is no way in hell he's ever 2x the player.

Harris is without a doubt in my mind the single most overrated free agent on the market this year.  He's one of the worst defenders in the league at the SF spot, and is not even close to being a dominant offensive player - merely an 'above average'  one, and according to stats even that's debatable. 

He doesn't have much in the way of upside either.  He's already played 4 seasons as a pro, and over that time he has never (not once) averaged more than 17.7 Points Per 36 minutes or 36.4% from three (32.1% career average).  His career shooting percentages from midrange are below average, his career free throw rate (29%) is average and his scoring efficiency (0.22 Points Per FGA) is also extremely average.

Even if you look at his advanced stats, his offensive game is not even starting calibre (-0.32 Offensive RPM, 39th out of 87 active small forwards) and his defensive game is is bottom 10 at his position (-2.20 Defensive RPM, 77th out of 87 active Small Forwards) and his overall impact on the game is a significantly in the negative (-2.52 Overall Real Plus Minus, 57th out of 87 active Small Forwards).

There is absolutely nothing that is anything but average about this guy - he's not even a starting caliber talent, let alone a star...and his lack of improvement statistically on a per-36 basis (outside of three point percentage) suggests that his upside is also pretty limited.   

It's debatable if he's would even add wins over the guys we already have:

Evan Turner has an Overall RPM of -1.36 (-1.09 ORPM, -0.27 DRPM)
Jae Crowder has an Overall RPM of -0.44 (+0.62 ORPM, -1.06 DRPM)
Jonas Jerebko has an overall RPM of +2.59 (+0.93 ORPM, +1.66 DRPM)

I've been really pushing for Danny to go after some (ANY!!) big name free agent who might make us even the slightest bit improved as a team, but I have serious question marks as to whether this guy will improve us at all, because every statistical number i can see indicates to me that he's just as likely (if not more likely) to make us worse and that he's the grandest example of a guy who gets inflated numbers playing in a garbage team.

If we have even the slightest chance of making a run at ANY of the big name players out there who have a chance at being available, then pretty much anybody on the list below (at the 3, 4, 5) would give us a far bigger benefit than Harris would:

Draymond Green (+6.85 RPM)
Demarcus Cousins (+6.12 RPM)
Kris Middleton (+6.07 RPM)
Paul Millsap (+5.11 RPM)
Tyson Chandler (+4.59 RPM)
Deandre Jordan (+4.47 RPM)
Jimmy Butler (+4.31 RPM)
LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.05 RPM)
Kevin Love (+2.81 RPM)
Greg Monroe (+2.66 RPM)
Kenneth Faried (+2.17 RPM)
Thaddeus Young (+1.20 RPM)
Joakim Noah (+1.09 RPM)
Joe Johnson (+0.87 RPM)
Hassan Whiteside (+0.70 RPM)
Robin Lopez (+0.52 RPM)
Rudy Gay (+0.40 RPM)
Paul Pierce (+0.32 RPM)
Roy Hibbert (+0.01 RPM))

You don't have a clue

Can't handle a different opinion that's backed up by a bunch of stats??

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.
There is no reason to attack stats in general.

That being said here are my issues with the stats he mentioned
1. Those stats do not account for quality of coach, or if the scheme, his teammates are a good fit.

2. Harris is great at knocking down 3's off the catch, creating offense in the pick and roll as well as driving close outs and posting up smaller 3's (due to his strength). The problem is Orlando seriously lacked shooting and thus floor spacing. This made scoring in the pick and roll and driving close outs much more difficult and posting up significantly more difficult. As one of the only good 3 point shooters on his team he was a lot less likely to find clean looks.

3. The fact that he is 22 can't simply be brushed off because he has had similar production over the first few years of his career. If a 22 year old coming out of college had similar production by advanced metrics over his last few years of college, you wouldn't assume he isn't going to get better in the NBA.

4. Usually when players increase their attempts, their efficiency goes down that is not the case with Harris. This year his effective field goal percentage and 3 point percentage increased despite taking a career high in 3's. His overall numbers didn't improve by much due to the cluster (expletive) of spacing that the magic had this year. Harris had many less opportunities inside yet he increased his percentages, think about what he will do when he takes his current 3 point shooting to a team that spaces the court well.

5. Those stats (for the most part) take into account opponents and some of them even take into account teammates but they do not take into account the style, spacing and coaching of a team, which is why Harris is greatly undervalued by those stats.

You probably said it better than me.  Agreed stats shouldn't be dismissed neither should they be the deciding factor.
I personally Love stats, they are the best way to back up what you see. Explaining your point with numbers is much better than saying, "because that's how I see it on the court, do you even watch basketball!?"

My opinion is that Harris has a lot of upside and was held down by poor coaching and an ill fitting roster. I also believe he is considerably more of a stretch 4 than a 3 which most people on the site don't seem to agree with.

82games which is one of my favorite stat site backs both these up, having him as the Magic's best player via their simple ratings and they also have him being more productive at the 4 than the 3.
http://www.82games.com/1415/14ORL10.HTM
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Offline walker834

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Otherwise the cap space we have just sits and waits for next year.  Who is available then? There are only so many sf's in the nba not named lebron.  I like Harris.  I feel like compared to who we could draft he'd be a nice fit.   We have money to spend.


Unless we are getting Kevin Love , Harris would be a nice consolation.  it's not the end all be all but it's a good fit.

 I'd take a chance here.   You have to gamble a bit at some point. This is a good place to if K Love is out of the equation.
 
« Last Edit: June 29, 2015, 11:08:52 PM by walker834 »

Offline crimson_stallion

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No I'm one of those guys that likes to see what a guy does on the court and judge how he fits into our teams needs not whether or not he statitisticslly measure up.  Maybe you didn't see the nba finals because you were crunching numbers but Andre IGuidala had the worse statistics of any nba mvp and was worse than curry and lebron.  But if iggy isn't  on the floor, isn't playing his role for his team,  the Warriors may not win.  Harris give this team, by your own admission, something it needs, rebounding and wing scoring.  So if your searching your stats for someone that has all the numbers all in the percentages hat would qualify them as suitable for you standards, then please continue to search and let us know when you find one that will fit our system, our needs, and that you can get for around 15 mil a year.

Andre Iguodala in 2014/15 had an Offensive RPM of +0.18 and a Defensive RPM of +0.73, with his total RPM of +0.91 ranking him 24/100 (if you put him at SG) or 21/87 (if you put him at Small Forward).   Regardless of which position you put him at, that ranks him in the top 25% of players at his position and clearly indicates that his team was better while he was on the court then it was when he was on the bench.

These are regular season numbers - if you were to find a source that lists these figures specifically for the playoffs (or better yet, finals) then I imagine you would find his overall RPM (and especially his Defensive RPM) would increase dramatically.

You aren't really helping your argument for Harris here.  If he offered something his team needed so much (shooting and rebounding) as you say. then WHY did his team get worse rather than better - on both ends of the floor - any time he was on the court?

I mean his Offensive RPM is only slightly in the negative, so I'm willing to cut him some slack there and just call him even (i.e. a non factor), but his defensive rating is so bad that it absolutely cannot be ignored.  A player needs to have a MASSIVE impact on the offensive end of the floor in order to offset such poor defense, and while Harris may be a 'decent' offensive player, he certainly isn't a great one. 

Take Carmelo Anthony as a perfect example.  The Knicks were one of the bottom 4 teams in the NBA last year, and Carmelo Anthony was almost as bad defensively as Tobias Harris was (-2.09 Defensive RPM).  But Carmelo Anthony is one of the best offensive players of this generation, as evidenced by his Offensive RPM of +4.81 (good enough to rank him 6th in the entire league).

So as much as Anthony hurts his team on defense, he move than makes up for that with the way he carries them on offense.  The end result is an overall RPM of +2.72 which is 11th among Small Forwards and which shows that (despite his defensive issues) the Knicks are still much better with him than they are without him.

But Harris (in contrast) doesn't come close to improving the Magic enough offensively, in order to make up for how much he hurts them defensively.   He's offensive game is probably somewhat limited by that fact that he's not a good passer (1.9 assists per 36, 1.1 Assits/Turnover, on par with Avery Bradley).  In fact if you look at his offensive profile, he's almost dead on par with Avery Bradley as an offensive player.

You can argue that Harris had value over Bradley because of his size and rebounding, but that's offset by Bradley's (obviously) far superior defense.

So considering the fact that nobody on the fact of this earth seems to consider Avery Bradley anywhere near deserving of a max contract...how could you possible make that same argument for Harris?

This is what I don't understand - the double standards.  Why do Celtics fans (who seem to widely regard themselves as the best and most loyal fans in all sports) seem to love throwing dirt on our own players (e.g. Bradley), yet obsess and fall in love with similar quality players on other teams (like Harris). 

The biggest knocks everybody here has on Bradley is that he can't pass, he can't dribble, and he'll never be a go-to scorer.   How does Harris in any way escape those same criticisms?

How is it that guys here were fuming about Bradley getting $8m - $9m, but are all for throwing $15m at Harris?

None of this makes any sense at all. 

Based on the type of comments I always see on CB about our own players, if Harris actually DID come here then it would take all of about 1 months before all the guys who are praising him right now suddenly start bagging him out for being a black hole, for being a chucker, and for being a horrible defensive player.

Offline walker834

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I think adding Harris to this team would be exactly what we need because we have a roster filled with guys who can score.  We added more this draft.  Add Harris to that we are a dangerous offensive team. we dont need that one guy who can score. My best comparison would be the celtics of the 50's and 70's.  They didnt have that one guy. Having an assortment and a guy who can score a bit better with Isiaiah and Harris that's a dangerous team.

This is even different than the pierce, ray allen kg trio. It's a different team. But Harris could be a really nice x-factor to have.

Sry if i'm interjecting comments here but  I'm seeing it man lol.  I'm not on anything either.  I am onto something though and people should take notice.

Offline cltc5

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It sounds like the Magic are willing to let him go if he signs a near max or max offer with someone:

Because they aren't clinically insane.

I really, really hope that Tobias Harris on a Max (or near max) contract isn't the best we can do this off-season.

He would potentially cost us 4x - 5x more than what we're paying turner, and there is no way in hell he's ever 2x the player.

Harris is without a doubt in my mind the single most overrated free agent on the market this year.  He's one of the worst defenders in the league at the SF spot, and is not even close to being a dominant offensive player - merely an 'above average'  one, and according to stats even that's debatable. 

He doesn't have much in the way of upside either.  He's already played 4 seasons as a pro, and over that time he has never (not once) averaged more than 17.7 Points Per 36 minutes or 36.4% from three (32.1% career average).  His career shooting percentages from midrange are below average, his career free throw rate (29%) is average and his scoring efficiency (0.22 Points Per FGA) is also extremely average.

Even if you look at his advanced stats, his offensive game is not even starting calibre (-0.32 Offensive RPM, 39th out of 87 active small forwards) and his defensive game is is bottom 10 at his position (-2.20 Defensive RPM, 77th out of 87 active Small Forwards) and his overall impact on the game is a significantly in the negative (-2.52 Overall Real Plus Minus, 57th out of 87 active Small Forwards).

There is absolutely nothing that is anything but average about this guy - he's not even a starting caliber talent, let alone a star...and his lack of improvement statistically on a per-36 basis (outside of three point percentage) suggests that his upside is also pretty limited.   

It's debatable if he's would even add wins over the guys we already have:

Evan Turner has an Overall RPM of -1.36 (-1.09 ORPM, -0.27 DRPM)
Jae Crowder has an Overall RPM of -0.44 (+0.62 ORPM, -1.06 DRPM)
Jonas Jerebko has an overall RPM of +2.59 (+0.93 ORPM, +1.66 DRPM)

I've been really pushing for Danny to go after some (ANY!!) big name free agent who might make us even the slightest bit improved as a team, but I have serious question marks as to whether this guy will improve us at all, because every statistical number i can see indicates to me that he's just as likely (if not more likely) to make us worse and that he's the grandest example of a guy who gets inflated numbers playing in a garbage team.

If we have even the slightest chance of making a run at ANY of the big name players out there who have a chance at being available, then pretty much anybody on the list below (at the 3, 4, 5) would give us a far bigger benefit than Harris would:

Draymond Green (+6.85 RPM)
Demarcus Cousins (+6.12 RPM)
Kris Middleton (+6.07 RPM)
Paul Millsap (+5.11 RPM)
Tyson Chandler (+4.59 RPM)
Deandre Jordan (+4.47 RPM)
Jimmy Butler (+4.31 RPM)
LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.05 RPM)
Kevin Love (+2.81 RPM)
Greg Monroe (+2.66 RPM)
Kenneth Faried (+2.17 RPM)
Thaddeus Young (+1.20 RPM)
Joakim Noah (+1.09 RPM)
Joe Johnson (+0.87 RPM)
Hassan Whiteside (+0.70 RPM)
Robin Lopez (+0.52 RPM)
Rudy Gay (+0.40 RPM)
Paul Pierce (+0.32 RPM)
Roy Hibbert (+0.01 RPM))

You don't have a clue

Can't handle a different opinion that's backed up by a bunch of stats??

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.
There is no reason to attack stats in general.

That being said here are my issues with the stats he mentioned
1. Those stats do not account for quality of coach, or if the scheme, his teammates are a good fit.

2. Harris is great at knocking down 3's off the catch, creating offense in the pick and roll as well as driving close outs and posting up smaller 3's (due to his strength). The problem is Orlando seriously lacked shooting and thus floor spacing. This made scoring in the pick and roll and driving close outs much more difficult and posting up significantly more difficult. As one of the only good 3 point shooters on his team he was a lot less likely to find clean looks.

3. The fact that he is 22 can't simply be brushed off because he has had similar production over the first few years of his career. If a 22 year old coming out of college had similar production by advanced metrics over his last few years of college, you wouldn't assume he isn't going to get better in the NBA.

4. Usually when players increase their attempts, their efficiency goes down that is not the case with Harris. This year his effective field goal percentage and 3 point percentage increased despite taking a career high in 3's. His overall numbers didn't improve by much due to the cluster (expletive) of spacing that the magic had this year. Harris had many less opportunities inside yet he increased his percentages, think about what he will do when he takes his current 3 point shooting to a team that spaces the court well.

5. Those stats (for the most part) take into account opponents and some of them even take into account teammates but they do not take into account the style, spacing and coaching of a team, which is why Harris is greatly undervalued by those stats.

You probably said it better than me.  Agreed stats shouldn't be dismissed neither should they be the deciding factor.
I personally Love stats, they are the best way to back up what you see. Explaining your point with numbers is much better than saying, "because that's how I see it on the court, do you even watch basketball!?"

My opinion is that Harris has a lot of upside and was held down by poor coaching and an ill fitting roster. I also believe he is considerably more of a stretch 4 than a 3 which most people on the site don't seem to agree with.

82games which is one of my favorite stat site backs both these up, having him as the Magic's best player via their simple ratings and they also have him being more productive at the 4 than the 3.
http://www.82games.com/1415/14ORL10.HTM

So I didn't have evidence to back up what was noticeably true is basically what you're saying.  I didn't have the stats nor I guess really need them to make my point.

Offline cltc5

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No I'm one of those guys that likes to see what a guy does on the court and judge how he fits into our teams needs not whether or not he statitisticslly measure up.  Maybe you didn't see the nba finals because you were crunching numbers but Andre IGuidala had the worse statistics of any nba mvp and was worse than curry and lebron.  But if iggy isn't  on the floor, isn't playing his role for his team,  the Warriors may not win.  Harris give this team, by your own admission, something it needs, rebounding and wing scoring.  So if your searching your stats for someone that has all the numbers all in the percentages hat would qualify them as suitable for you standards, then please continue to search and let us know when you find one that will fit our system, our needs, and that you can get for around 15 mil a year.

Andre Iguodala in 2014/15 had an Offensive RPM of +0.18 and a Defensive RPM of +0.73, with his total RPM of +0.91 ranking him 24/100 (if you put him at SG) or 21/87 (if you put him at Small Forward).   Regardless of which position you put him at, that ranks him in the top 25% of players at his position and clearly indicates that his team was better while he was on the court then it was when he was on the bench.

These are regular season numbers - if you were to find a source that lists these figures specifically for the playoffs (or better yet, finals) then I imagine you would find his overall RPM (and especially his Defensive RPM) would increase dramatically.

You aren't really helping your argument for Harris here.  If he offered something his team needed so much (shooting and rebounding) as you say. then WHY did his team get worse rather than better - on both ends of the floor - any time he was on the court?

I mean his Offensive RPM is only slightly in the negative, so I'm willing to cut him some slack there and just call him even (i.e. a non factor), but his defensive rating is so bad that it absolutely cannot be ignored.  A player needs to have a MASSIVE impact on the offensive end of the floor in order to offset such poor defense, and while Harris may be a 'decent' offensive player, he certainly isn't a great one. 

Take Carmelo Anthony as a perfect example.  The Knicks were one of the bottom 4 teams in the NBA last year, and Carmelo Anthony was almost as bad defensively as Tobias Harris was (-2.09 Defensive RPM).  But Carmelo Anthony is one of the best offensive players of this generation, as evidenced by his Offensive RPM of +4.81 (good enough to rank him 6th in the entire league).

So as much as Anthony hurts his team on defense, he move than makes up for that with the way he carries them on offense.  The end result is an overall RPM of +2.72 which is 11th among Small Forwards and which shows that (despite his defensive issues) the Knicks are still much better with him than they are without him.

But Harris (in contrast) doesn't come close to improving the Magic enough offensively, in order to make up for how much he hurts them defensively.   He's offensive game is probably somewhat limited by that fact that he's not a good passer (1.9 assists per 36, 1.1 Assits/Turnover, on par with Avery Bradley).  In fact if you look at his offensive profile, he's almost dead on par with Avery Bradley as an offensive player.

You can argue that Harris had value over Bradley because of his size and rebounding, but that's offset by Bradley's (obviously) far superior defense.

So considering the fact that nobody on the fact of this earth seems to consider Avery Bradley anywhere near deserving of a max contract...how could you possible make that same argument for Harris?

This is what I don't understand - the double standards.  Why do Celtics fans (who seem to widely regard themselves as the best and most loyal fans in all sports) seem to love throwing dirt on our own players (e.g. Bradley), yet obsess and fall in love with similar quality players on other teams (like Harris). 

The biggest knocks everybody here has on Bradley is that he can't pass, he can't dribble, and he'll never be a go-to scorer.   How does Harris in any way escape those same criticisms?

How is it that guys here were fuming about Bradley getting $8m - $9m, but are all for throwing $15m at Harris?

None of this makes any sense at all. 

Based on the type of comments I always see on CB about our own players, if Harris actually DID come here then it would take all of about 1 months before all the guys who are praising him right now suddenly start bagging him out for being a black hole, for being a chucker, and for being a horrible defensive player.

I guess well just have to wait and see whose right in this one.

Offline Tr1boy

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUlSNqQQTck

poor defense on Lebron. Crowder played better D on Lebron

I wouldn't say poor defense. He stayed infront of him on the most part and made him take off balanced shots, even got a block. But Harris p---ed Lebron off and Lebron went ot hitting those fades and off balanced shots. Not many defenders can stop that.

He did get burned a couple times, but one of them he showed him left and know one stepted up to help. Plus it's Lebron, he's going to burn everyone in the league. Heck he scored 45 on Pierce, was that poor D or just good O.

I'm not saying Harris is a lock down defender, he needs some work, and needs to fight more threw screens. But I LOVE him called Lebron out. Shows the kid has grit and doesn't bow down the the Queen like half the NBA.

Yes Lebron is Lebron but Harris only did a mediocre job.  Some plays he did well some plays he was out for lunch (like not fighting through screens harder).  Lebron blew by him on several occasions bc Harris did not move his feet early enough.

Harris has the tools to be a great defender. Potentially Kawhi Leonard good. But he does not go all the way. Maybe a taste of the playoffs can change things. Maybe under a different coach.  It's risky and it might never happen.

I rather pay less and go for Middleton. Or pay just as high and try to get Butler.  I would overpay for Leonard but no matter what the price is, i'm sure the Spurs will match.

I agree I'd rather have Butler or Leonard. Middleton and Harris are close, Middleton would be cheaper, but unless we move a guard, not sure if he would be a good three, were Harris could play some four.

Harris hasn't been in a good system yet, he's been on bad teams no focus. He has the tools like you said, I'd be willing to role with him. Put him in a good system that built on D, see how he does.

Plus I'm hoping for a AB for Middleton trade. Get him and then sign Harris, it's a win, win. :P

But Butler wants to sign with the lakers for a year , Leonard is pretty much going to stay and is likely Middleton unless the Celts overpay, which I can't see them doing

I don't mind Harris .  But I would not offer more than 12 million a season

Offline walker834

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Brad Steven is the x-factor here. So are guys like Marcus and Crowder.  We can add a guy like harris who can be a scorer for us.  It would work.

He did it at Butler.  He'll do it here.  This is what I want.  An under the radar building team that can do a lot of damage.

Offline BDeCosta26

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I find most people hide behind stats as a way to hide their deficiency in actual knowledge or experience in how the sport is played.

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.

Oh, so you are one of those people who believes statistics are useless and all that matters is eye test.  I see.

You're like those audio guys who try to tell the world that records (with their crackle and pop) have better sound quality than CD's, that believes the best speakers are ones that sound 'warm', and that a TV screen with vivid popping colors is better than a screens that is 97% accurate according to sRGB.

You're one of those subjective guys who takes on the approach of "X is better than Y because I've seen both and to me X looks better, so that makes it true".

It doesn't matter if there is measurable objective evidence that a player makes his team dramatically worse every single time he steps on the court - the only thing that determines a player's value is how he looks when he plays. 

Ok, I'm sold.

:)

It's really a balance of both. What you see and what stats tell you don't always match up. For example, I had someone pull out all these stats (forgive me for forgetting which ones) to tell me why IT was one of the worst defenders in the NBA even though I watch almost every single Celtics game and while his size is a major disadvantage, he knows where he needs to be and he hustles to get there pretty much every time. A size able chunk of NBA players don't do that (Looking at you Carmelo), and thus is an average defender. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Think about all the people that were "so disappointed" in Smart's rookie year. Those people focus solely on stat lines. They say "He averaged 8-3-3, Jordan Clarkson had a whole bunch of double-doubles so he's better", without taking into account any kind of context about how Clarkson spent the second half of the year as just about the only Laker that had any plays run for him, how he was just about the only option they were gonna scheme for, or how Smart was literally the 5th option in 90% of his offensive possessions. To that same end, think of the old curmudgeon who looks at a guy like Rudy Gay in Memphis and says "We should get him, he can fill it up" without realizing his stats are just shallow numbers that come with a net negative impact on his team.

The truth always lies in the middle, both ways of seeing things have merit. Those stat wizards are nice to have around, and the certainly help a team win. But you also need to know how to, and have experience in, playing the game to have a full perspective. That's what separates the Brad Stevens' from the Byron Scott's

Offline kozlodoev

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After lamenting Jeff Green's contract for years, CB fans now pull for signing an inferior player to a worse contract.

Well done.  ;D
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Offline walker834

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After lamenting Jeff Green's contract for years, CB fans now pull for signing an inferior player to a worse contract.

Well done.  ;D

Harris is not jeff Green.

Offline Evantime34

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It sounds like the Magic are willing to let him go if he signs a near max or max offer with someone:

Because they aren't clinically insane.

I really, really hope that Tobias Harris on a Max (or near max) contract isn't the best we can do this off-season.

He would potentially cost us 4x - 5x more than what we're paying turner, and there is no way in hell he's ever 2x the player.

Harris is without a doubt in my mind the single most overrated free agent on the market this year.  He's one of the worst defenders in the league at the SF spot, and is not even close to being a dominant offensive player - merely an 'above average'  one, and according to stats even that's debatable. 

He doesn't have much in the way of upside either.  He's already played 4 seasons as a pro, and over that time he has never (not once) averaged more than 17.7 Points Per 36 minutes or 36.4% from three (32.1% career average).  His career shooting percentages from midrange are below average, his career free throw rate (29%) is average and his scoring efficiency (0.22 Points Per FGA) is also extremely average.

Even if you look at his advanced stats, his offensive game is not even starting calibre (-0.32 Offensive RPM, 39th out of 87 active small forwards) and his defensive game is is bottom 10 at his position (-2.20 Defensive RPM, 77th out of 87 active Small Forwards) and his overall impact on the game is a significantly in the negative (-2.52 Overall Real Plus Minus, 57th out of 87 active Small Forwards).

There is absolutely nothing that is anything but average about this guy - he's not even a starting caliber talent, let alone a star...and his lack of improvement statistically on a per-36 basis (outside of three point percentage) suggests that his upside is also pretty limited.   

It's debatable if he's would even add wins over the guys we already have:

Evan Turner has an Overall RPM of -1.36 (-1.09 ORPM, -0.27 DRPM)
Jae Crowder has an Overall RPM of -0.44 (+0.62 ORPM, -1.06 DRPM)
Jonas Jerebko has an overall RPM of +2.59 (+0.93 ORPM, +1.66 DRPM)

I've been really pushing for Danny to go after some (ANY!!) big name free agent who might make us even the slightest bit improved as a team, but I have serious question marks as to whether this guy will improve us at all, because every statistical number i can see indicates to me that he's just as likely (if not more likely) to make us worse and that he's the grandest example of a guy who gets inflated numbers playing in a garbage team.

If we have even the slightest chance of making a run at ANY of the big name players out there who have a chance at being available, then pretty much anybody on the list below (at the 3, 4, 5) would give us a far bigger benefit than Harris would:

Draymond Green (+6.85 RPM)
Demarcus Cousins (+6.12 RPM)
Kris Middleton (+6.07 RPM)
Paul Millsap (+5.11 RPM)
Tyson Chandler (+4.59 RPM)
Deandre Jordan (+4.47 RPM)
Jimmy Butler (+4.31 RPM)
LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.05 RPM)
Kevin Love (+2.81 RPM)
Greg Monroe (+2.66 RPM)
Kenneth Faried (+2.17 RPM)
Thaddeus Young (+1.20 RPM)
Joakim Noah (+1.09 RPM)
Joe Johnson (+0.87 RPM)
Hassan Whiteside (+0.70 RPM)
Robin Lopez (+0.52 RPM)
Rudy Gay (+0.40 RPM)
Paul Pierce (+0.32 RPM)
Roy Hibbert (+0.01 RPM))

You don't have a clue

Can't handle a different opinion that's backed up by a bunch of stats??

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.
There is no reason to attack stats in general.

That being said here are my issues with the stats he mentioned
1. Those stats do not account for quality of coach, or if the scheme, his teammates are a good fit.

2. Harris is great at knocking down 3's off the catch, creating offense in the pick and roll as well as driving close outs and posting up smaller 3's (due to his strength). The problem is Orlando seriously lacked shooting and thus floor spacing. This made scoring in the pick and roll and driving close outs much more difficult and posting up significantly more difficult. As one of the only good 3 point shooters on his team he was a lot less likely to find clean looks.

3. The fact that he is 22 can't simply be brushed off because he has had similar production over the first few years of his career. If a 22 year old coming out of college had similar production by advanced metrics over his last few years of college, you wouldn't assume he isn't going to get better in the NBA.

4. Usually when players increase their attempts, their efficiency goes down that is not the case with Harris. This year his effective field goal percentage and 3 point percentage increased despite taking a career high in 3's. His overall numbers didn't improve by much due to the cluster (expletive) of spacing that the magic had this year. Harris had many less opportunities inside yet he increased his percentages, think about what he will do when he takes his current 3 point shooting to a team that spaces the court well.

5. Those stats (for the most part) take into account opponents and some of them even take into account teammates but they do not take into account the style, spacing and coaching of a team, which is why Harris is greatly undervalued by those stats.

You probably said it better than me.  Agreed stats shouldn't be dismissed neither should they be the deciding factor.
I personally Love stats, they are the best way to back up what you see. Explaining your point with numbers is much better than saying, "because that's how I see it on the court, do you even watch basketball!?"

My opinion is that Harris has a lot of upside and was held down by poor coaching and an ill fitting roster. I also believe he is considerably more of a stretch 4 than a 3 which most people on the site don't seem to agree with.

82games which is one of my favorite stat site backs both these up, having him as the Magic's best player via their simple ratings and they also have him being more productive at the 4 than the 3.
http://www.82games.com/1415/14ORL10.HTM

So I didn't have evidence to back up what was noticeably true is basically what you're saying.  I didn't have the stats nor I guess really need them to make my point.
No I was commenting on your use of stats and the backlash you got from another poster on him. Not that what you said was noticeably true.
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Offline Endless Paradise

  • Jim Loscutoff
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Harris is Jeff Green if Jeff Green were better.

Offline positivitize

  • Jim Loscutoff
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Harris is Jeff Green if Jeff Green were better.

and young
My biases, in order of fervor:
Pro:
Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Kemba, Grant Williams, Sleepy Williams, Edwards!

Anti:
Kanter, Semi, Theis, Poierier