Chad Ford's Tier Rankings based on info from GM's & Scouts

[Eddie20]

So how do things break down? After I talked to several GMs and scouts whose teams employ this system, here is how the tiers look this year.

Players are listed alphabetically in each tier.

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Tier 1

Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky



Ahead of last year's draft, we had three players in this category: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker. This category usually is reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players. Just three other players since we started this column in 2009 -- Griffin, Wall and Davis -- have been ranked in this slot. You have to be elite to get here.

This year was one of the toughest yet. Five players were nominated for Tier 1 by various teams. However, only one player was consistently mentioned by all of them: Towns. Although some teams don't see major separation between him and the players in Tier 2, others feel that there's a gap and that he's the only one in the draft who has the potential to be a top-10 player in the league.

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Tier 2

Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Congo

Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke

Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Latvia

D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State


This is a very strong Tier 2. Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingis and Russell all have a claim to be the No. 1 pick. In fact, Okafor was the favorite to be the No. 1 pick since July, and several teams put Russell on par with Towns. Both received votes for Tier 1 but not enough to move them up.

Tier 2 is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player on the list has a weakness that some teams feel will keep him from being a superstar. For Mudiay, it's shooting. For Okafor and Russell, it's athleticism and defense. For Porzingis, it's a thin body and questionable position. Nevertheless, each of the four has a strength that should propel him to an All-Star Game in his career.

One fun note: Last year we wrote the column before Porzingis, then regarded as a Tier 4 prospect, had withdrawn from the draft. So he has jumped up two tiers.

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Tier 3

Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Kentucky

Mario Hezonja, G/F, Croatia

Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke


This is a very strong Tier 3, as well. Hezonja and Winslow received Tier 2 votes from teams. However, both fell just short of the cut.

This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers. All three players should go in the top 10. Hezonja, especially, has some star appeal. Having eight players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft, but not quite as strong as the 2014 draft, which had 12 players in the first three tiers.

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Tier 4

Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky

Sam Dekker, F, Wisconsin

Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame

Stanley Johnson, G/F, Arizona

Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin

Kevon Looney, F, UCLA

Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky

Kelly Oubre, G/F, Kansas

Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State

Bobby Portis, PF, Arkanas

Myles Turner, F/C, Texas

Tier 4 typically is late-lottery to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft -- selections 10 through 20. This year, that tier is roughly 9-19 on our Big Board. Lots of talented players in this tier project to be starters or high-level rotation players.


Here, even the consensus in tiers starts to break down.

Guys really are all over the place. Booker, Kaminsky, Lyles and Turner each scored a few votes for Tier 3. Payne also picked up a Tier 3 vote. Still, the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Oubre, Grant and Looney had some Tier 5 votes, but most of their votes were in Tier 4.

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Tier 5

Justin Anderson, SG, Virginia

Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, Arizona

R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State

Tyus Jones, PG, Duke

Terry Rozier, G, Louisville

Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV

Delon Wright, PG, Utah


This next group is one of the smaller Tier 5s we've had and shows the drop-off in talent as we get into the 20s. By pick 25 or so, teams really struggle to come up with players they think can make the league.

This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players: They're unlikely to start for good teams but could become solid role players off the bench. A few teams had Hollis-Jefferson, Hunter, Jones and Vaughn in Tier 4, but that's not quite enough for them to make the cut. Rozier, Harrell and Wright got a few Tier 6 votes.

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Tier 6

Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas

Anthony Brown, SG, Stanford

Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse

Olivier Hanlan, G, Boston College

Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Spain

Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky

Jarell Martin, PF, LSU

Chris McCullough, F, Syracuse

Cedi Osman, F, Turkey

Robert Upshaw, C, Washington

Christian Wood, PF, UNLV

Joseph Young, G, Oregon


In this tier are the players one or more teams ranked in their top 30. A few -- Brown, Martin and McCullough -- got Tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks. This list is typically quite a bit longer. Again, the talent level of the draft drops off a cliff as we get into these lower tiers.

Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But most teams in the NBA run it, and they have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared with traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool for gauging which players a team should draft.

To make sense of disparate rankings and debates over team needs versus best player available, the past few years I've chronicled a draft ranking system employed by several teams that have been very successful in the draft, what I call a tier system.

Instead of developing an exact order from 1 to 60 of the best players in the draft, these teams group players, based on overall talent, into tiers. Then the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need.

This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs.

So how does the tier system work?

A team ranks players in each tier according to team need. So in Tier 3, if shooting guard is the biggest need, a shooting guard is ranked No. 1. If center is the biggest need, center is ranked No. 1.

The rules are pretty simple. You always draft the highest-ranked player in a given tier. Also, you never take a player from a lower tier if one from a higher tier is available.

For example, in the 2012 NBA draft, if the Detroit Pistons are drafting No. 9 (Tier 3 territory) and Damian Lillard (a Tier 2 player) is on the board, they take him regardless of positional need. If they have a center ranked No. 1 in Tier 4, they still take Lillard even though center is a more pressing need.

This system protects teams from overreaching based on team need. However, the system also protects a team from passing on a player who fits a need just because he might be ranked one or two spots lower overall. Let me give you an example of how using draft tiers would've prevented a horrific draft mistake in the 2005 NBA draft.

Former Atlanta Hawks GM Billy Knight stated every year that he took the best player on the board, regardless of team need. He took Marvin Williams ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams in 2005, and Shelden Williams ahead of a point guard such as Rajon Rondo in 2006.

A source formerly with Atlanta's front office told me that the Hawks had Marvin Williams ranked No. 1, Andrew Bogut ranked No. 2, Deron Williams ranked No. 3 and Paul ranked No. 4 in 2005. So on draft night, Knight took Marvin Williams with the No. 2 pick after the Bucks selected Bogut No. 1 overall.

In a tier system, however, the source conceded that all four players, in his mind at least, would have been Tier 1 players -- in other words, the Hawks thought all four had equal long-term impact potential. If the Hawks had employed a tier system, they would have ranked inside the tier based on team need and fit, rather than just ranking the prospects from 1 to 30.

In that case, the Hawks likely would have ranked either Bogut (they needed a center) or Deron Williams (they still need a point guard) No. 1. Marvin Williams actually would have been ranked No. 4 under that scenario. The Pistons actually followed this model in 2012 draft. While the consensus was that they needed a big, when Brandon Knight -- a player they had ranked in a higher tier -- fell, they took him anyway.

Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But the teams that run it have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool for gauging which players a team should draft.

[csfansince60s]

Informative post. Thanks.

Surprised Jordan Mickey not even in tier 6.

[Eddie20]

Informative post. Thanks.

Surprised Jordan Mickey not even in tier 6.

No problem.

As for Mickey...I'm actually not. Don't let the threads here on Mickey deceive, he's actually not thought of too highly as a prospect.

[Vermont Green]

CF has Upshaw in Tier 6 which equates to 28-39.  This seems to contradict the narrative that now one wants to touch him.  If you put stock in this, it means we would have a shot at him at 28 and potentially 33.

[Eddie20]

CF has Upshaw in Tier 6 which equates to 28-39.  This seems to contradict the narrative that now one wants to touch him.  If you put stock in this, it means we would have a shot at him at 28 and potentially 33.

I think he actually has us drafting him at #33. I don't think "no one wants to touch him", but I'm sure plenty of teams have him off their boards entirely.

[LarBrd33]

Who did ford have in tier 2 last year?

[Forza Juventus]

Who did ford have in tier 2 last year?

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/394690-chad-ford-ranking-draft-prospects-by-tiers-2014/

[LarBrd33]

Who did ford have in tier 2 last year?

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/394690-chad-ford-ranking-draft-prospects-by-tiers-2014/

Tier 2:
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh
 

So keep that in mind when getting overhyped about all the guys in the draft this year aside from towns.  I still like a lot of those guys in last year's tier 2.   If mudiay, pozingus, Okafor and Russell are lumped in with those guys, it means they might take some time but they have potential to be big contributors in a few years.

He had Gary Harris, McDermott and stauskas in tier 3. 

This kind of paints the picture that last year's was thought to be better by scouts. 

[Denis998]

Who did ford have in tier 2 last year?

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/394690-chad-ford-ranking-draft-prospects-by-tiers-2014/

Tier 2:
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh
 

So keep that in mind when getting overhyped about all the guys in the draft this year aside from towns.  I still like a lot of those guys in last year's tier 2.   If mudiay, pozingus, Okafor and Russell are lumped in with those guys, it means they might take some time but they have potential to be big contributors in a few years.

He had Gary Harris, McDermott and stauskas in tier 3. 



So it looks like all the prospects

looks like tier 4 is where you want to be

[LarBrd33]

Who did ford have in tier 2 last year?

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/394690-chad-ford-ranking-draft-prospects-by-tiers-2014/

Tier 2:
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh
 

So keep that in mind when getting overhyped about all the guys in the draft this year aside from towns.  I still like a lot of those guys in last year's tier 2.   If mudiay, pozingus, Okafor and Russell are lumped in with those guys, it means they might take some time but they have potential to be big contributors in a few years.

He had Gary Harris, McDermott and stauskas in tier 3. 



So it looks like all the prospects

looks like tier 4 is where you want to be

Thing is, everyone always overreacts to rookie stats. This takes time. We aren't going to know how they pan out for a few years.   But it's interesting that last year they had three guys in tier 1 and six guys in tier 2.  This year they have one guy in tier 1 and four guys in tier 2. 

I guess that shows that last year's draft was believed to be more top heavy.  9 guys will allstar potential vs 5 this year.

[fairweatherfan]

I'll hold off on putting too much stock in this until he has a chance to retier them in 2018.

[Forza Juventus]

Who did ford have in tier 2 last year?

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/394690-chad-ford-ranking-draft-prospects-by-tiers-2014/

Tier 2:
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh
 

So keep that in mind when getting overhyped about all the guys in the draft this year aside from towns.  I still like a lot of those guys in last year's tier 2.   If mudiay, pozingus, Okafor and Russell are lumped in with those guys, it means they might take some time but they have potential to be big contributors in a few years.

He had Gary Harris, McDermott and stauskas in tier 3. 

This kind of paints the picture that last year's was thought to be better by scouts.

I wasn't that high on most of those tier 2 guys last year. At the time I was high on Gordon and Smart. For some reason I'm higher on the tier 2 guys in this years draft than I was on last years draft. I'm higher on this years tier 3 and 4 guys than last year to. idk why.

[Forza Juventus]

I'll hold off on putting too much stock in this until he has a chance to retier them in 2018.

This. lol TP

[oldutican]

This shows why there may not be much value in trading for the 9th pick. This draft is 8 deep with the drop off beginning at 9.

[LarBrd33]

Who did ford have in tier 2 last year?

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/394690-chad-ford-ranking-draft-prospects-by-tiers-2014/

Tier 2:
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh
 

So keep that in mind when getting overhyped about all the guys in the draft this year aside from towns.  I still like a lot of those guys in last year's tier 2.   If mudiay, pozingus, Okafor and Russell are lumped in with those guys, it means they might take some time but they have potential to be big contributors in a few years.

He had Gary Harris, McDermott and stauskas in tier 3. 

This kind of paints the picture that last year's was thought to be better by scouts.

I wasn't that high on most of those tier 2 guys last year. At the time I was high on Gordon and Smart. For some reason I'm higher on the tier 2 guys in this years draft than I was on last years draft. I'm higher on this years tier 3 and 4 guys than last year to. idk why.

If you are anything like me, you'd be more high on this year's tier 2, because we always want what we can't have.  Last year we were picking 6th and kind of bummed that we missed out on tier 1.  Pessimism/disappointment made us less than enthusiastic about our remaining options.  This year we have almost no shot to get into tier 2... So we think of it as the holy grail.
Ultimately, the 4 guys in tier 2 this year are just as much boom/bust as the 6 guys in tier 2 last year.  It's going to take several years for us to see how they pan out.